The IX Basketball<\/a>: A basketball newsroom brought to you by The IX Sports<\/a>. 24\/7\/365 women\u2019s basketball coverage, written, edited and photographed by our young, diverse staff and dedicated to breaking news, analysis, historical deep dives and projections about the game we love.<\/p>\n
Tankathon check-in<\/p>\n
To be clear, no one in the WNBA is currently tanking on purpose (at least, the players aren\u2019t). That being said, let\u2019s see where the teams are right now in the lottery standings and where they project to end up. (The chart is vaguely organized by the rightmost column.)<\/p>\n
TeamGames back in lotteryGames back of No. 8 seedSchedule remainingLikely finishDallas Wings\u2014Eliminated@ Los Angeles, vs. PhoenixNo. 1 lottery oddsChicago Sky25.5Eliminated@ Las Vegas (x2), vs. New YorkNo. 2 lottery oddsLos Angeles Sparks39.52.5vs. Dallas, @ Phoenix, vs. Las VegasNo. 3 lottery oddsWashington Mystics12Eliminatedvs. Indiana, @ New YorkNo. 4 lottery oddsConnecticut Sun420.5Eliminatedvs. Phoenix, @ Atlanta, vs. AtlantaWorst lottery oddsSeattle Storm528.5-2vs. Golden StateLow playoff seedIndiana Fever24-2.5@ Washington, vs. MinnesotaLow playoff seed1. Minnesota owns Chicago\u2019s pick
2. Seattle owns Los Angeles\u2019 pick
3. Chicago owns the rights to Connecticut\u2019s pick if the Sun finish worse than the Mercury
4. Washington owns Seattle\u2019s pick<\/p>\n
Note that if Los Angeles wins out and Washington goes winless, the Mystics will jump into the third-best lottery odds. The Sparks\u2019 next loss or a Storm win over the Golden State Valkyries on Tuesday would eliminate Los Angeles from the playoffs.<\/p>\n
Projecting the first-round playoff matchups<\/p>\n
No. 1 seed Minnesota Lynx vs. No. 8 seed Seattle Storm<\/p>\n
Since the WNBA moved to a best-of-three format for the first round of the playoffs, this is the first time that the 1-8 matchup hasn\u2019t looked like a complete walkover. It\u2019s still going to be the Lynx nine times out of 10, but the Storm are more than capable of hitting some jump shots and playing smothering defense \u2014 just look at how their most recent meeting went<\/a>.<\/p>\n Minnesota, though, is well-suited to dismantle Seattle: Its cutting takes advantage of how much Seattle struggles with defensive rotations, and the rim protection<\/a> forwards Napheesa Collier<\/a> and Alanna Smith<\/a> always provide keeps the Storm from having an easy path to points when they otherwise shoot themselves out of games. Collier would need to struggle and Seattle would need to finally solve its issues with help assignments for this series to get interesting.<\/p>\n No. 2 Las Vegas Aces vs. No. 7 Indiana Fever<\/p>\n In theory, Atlanta could be the No. 2 seed if the Aces drop one of their two remaining games against Chicago or their finale against the Sparks. That seems unlikely. Golden State could also be the No. 7 seed if the Valkyries lose to the Storm and the Fever beat both Washington and Minnesota, which also seems unlikely. (Seattle could also be the No. 7 seed, but I\u2019d argue that is even less likely.)<\/p>\n Las Vegas and Indiana haven\u2019t played since the Aces turned their season around<\/a> in late July, so it\u2019s hard to take much from any of their previous matchups. For the Fever, Caitlin Clark<\/a> started one game<\/a> and Aari McDonald<\/a> two, plus Sophie Cunningham<\/a> was active. For the Aces, Jewell Loyd<\/a> was still in the starting lineup<\/a>, and those games were before they fixed their defensive rotations. With how well the frontcourt pairing of A\u2019ja Wilson<\/a> and NaLyssa Smith<\/a> has played over the past month and a half, the Fever will be hard-pressed to get easy looks without guard Kelsey Mitchell<\/a> getting a switch and being able to create into iso. And even that slows down the offense in a way that gets the Fever out of flow and plays into Vegas\u2019 style.<\/p>\n The Indiana role players will need to hit a lot of spot-up shots for this series not to be over quickly.<\/p>\n \u201cBecoming Caitlin Clark\u201d is out now!<\/p>\n Howard Megdal\u2019s newest book is here! \u201cBecoming Caitlin Clark: The Unknown Origin Story of a Modern Basketball Superstar\u201d captures both the historic nature of Clark\u2019s rise and the critical context over the previous century that helped make it possible, including interviews with Clark, Lisa Bluder (who also wrote the foreword), C. Vivian Stringer, Jan Jensen, Molly Kazmer and many others.<\/p>\n No. 3 Atlanta Dream vs. No. 6 Golden State Valkyries<\/p>\n Again, Las Vegas could be the No. 3 seed if the Dream sweep Connecticut and the Aces drop a game to Chicago or Los Angeles, and\/or Indiana could be the No. 6 seed. But, again, that\u2019s unlikely.<\/p>\n Despite the Valkyries\u2019 pluckiness of late<\/a> \u2014 winning games with Kaila Charles<\/a> starting at the two and Iliana Rupert<\/a> at the four \u2014 the health of guard Tiffany Hayes<\/a> and forward Cecilia Zandalasini<\/a> feels paramount. Hayes is out for another week, and there have been zero updates on Zandalasini. Considering that the team\u2019s offensive rating falls sharply<\/a> when at least one is unavailable and that Golden State hasn\u2019t beaten a top-four team since Zandalasini hit a game-winner in Atlanta in late July, that will probably be a make-or-break injury report.<\/p>\n Without those two, this is a bit of a nightmare matchup for the Valks as currently constructed. Jordin Canada<\/a> is maybe the toughest matchup for a guard like Veronica Burton<\/a> in the league, Brionna Jones<\/a> and Naz Hillmon<\/a> move too well in space for Temi F\u00e1gb\u00e9nl\u00e9<\/a> or Rupert to have their usual advantages in the frontcourt, and Brittney Griner<\/a> defeats the purpose of Monique Billings<\/a> as a backup center.<\/p>\n Having shot creators Hayes and Zandalasini on the wing would change the math and force the Dream to get uncomfortable with their help points. But without them, seemingly the only way Atlanta won\u2019t sweep is by shooting itself out of a game.<\/p>\n Want even more women\u2019s sports in your inbox?<\/p>\n Subscribe now to The IX Sports<\/a> and receive our daily women\u2019s sports newsletter covering soccer, tennis, basketball, golf, hockey and gymnastics from our incredible team of writers. That includes Basketball Wednesday from founder and editor Howard Megdal.<\/p>\n Readers of The IX Basketball now save 50% on their subscription to The IX.<\/p>\n No. 4 Phoenix Mercury vs. No. 5 New York Liberty<\/p>\n If New York guard Sabrina Ionescu<\/a> is at even 80% for this series, the Liberty will advance by a decent margin. The Mercury won the season series 3-1, and that loss was the one game Liberty stars Ionescu, Breanna Stewart<\/a> and Jonquel Jones<\/a> were all healthy for.<\/p>\n On the other hand, this should be fun either way. Phoenix can win both shootouts and sluggish affairs<\/a>, with both streaky shot-making from the likes of guards Kahleah Copper<\/a> and Sami Whitcomb<\/a> and one of the W\u2019s best defensive shells. There\u2019s pathways to either team winning the frontcourt matchup: Natasha Mack<\/a> forced Jones into a poor showing just last week, and the Alyssa Thomas<\/a>-Stewart matchup is one that still has an outsized effect on the rest of the game, depending on whether either can force the other to rely on help.<\/p>\n All of that makes Copper and point guard Monique Akoa Makani<\/a> that much more important. Copper getting a good 20 points \u2014 likely against Natasha Cloud<\/a> \u2014 and Akoa Makani keeping Ionescu off balance would make things extremely difficult for New York because that would allow the Mercury to stay within their system on offense and stay out of emergency rotations on defense, respectively. Achieving neither would effectively guarantee that the Liberty advance, barring Mercury forward Satou Sabally<\/a> remembering how to move how she did in Dallas.<\/p>\n![\"Photo](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Untitled-design-13.png\")
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