Last week, Prime Minister Mark Carney took another swing against climate action when he announced a pause and review of the EV sales mandate, and all eyes are on whether more climate policy will be on the chopping block, as the Liberal caucus meets this week in Edmonton.<\/p>\n
Federal officials are preparing a climate strategy, Carney teased Friday, which will mark the prime minister\u2019s first foray into detailing his government\u2019s plan to cut emissions. The announcement comes at the same time Ottawa embarks on a massive \u201cnation-building\u201d agenda that he suggested could result in a wave of new fossil fuel infrastructure .\u00a0<\/p>\n
According to sources familiar with its development, the \u201cCanada Climate Competitiveness Strategy,\u201d is scheduled to be released this fall on the heels of a stocktaking exercise carried out by the Privy Council Office (PCO). The office developed a list of emissions reduction policies, detailing their cost and greenhouse gas emission reduction potential, sources say.<\/p>\n
Dominic LeBlanc, president of the PCO, was not made available for an interview and his office passed questions posed by\u00a0Canada\u2019s National Observer\u00a0to PCO officials for response. But PCO officials passed the request to Environment and Climate Change Canada, which did not respond to a deadline extension offered by\u00a0CNO.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Some government sources, granted anonymity by\u00a0Canada\u2019s National Observer\u00a0to discuss the plans, expect the industrial carbon price and methane regulations to be strengthened, and Carney to hold the line on clean electricity and clean fuel regulations. The proposed cap on oil and gas emissions, on the other hand, appears the most vulnerable.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Between repealing the consumer carbon price, pausing the EV sales mandate, and potentially dropping the proposed oil and gas emissions cap, concerns are mounting that Canada will fail to reach its legally binding emission targets to slash 40 to 45 per cent of emissions by 2030 and 45 to 50 per cent by 2035 from 2005 levels.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Industry Minister Melanie Joly\u00a0deflected questions<\/a> about whether those targets are here to stay in a recent interview with\u00a0CTV, while Environment and Climate Change Minister Julie Dabrusin said the government is committed to its net-zero by 2050 target and plans to provide an \u201cupdate\u201d to its interim targets.\u00a0<\/p>\n Carney hinted he\u2019ll soon release a \u2018climate competitiveness strategy\u2019 that insiders expect will boost industrial carbon pricing while cutting other emission reduction policies, echoing previously failed attempts at striking a grand bargain. <\/p>\n \u201cCanada has made significant progress in putting the foundational policies in place to bend the emissions curve,\u201d said Keean Nembhard, press secretary to Dabrusin, in a statement. \u201cTaking into account the evolving global and economic context, the federal government will provide an update on its emissions reductions plan as we strive towards our 2030 and 2035 targets.\u201d<\/p>\n Outdated ideas<\/p>\n Keith Stewart, senior strategist with Greenpeace Canada, said it\u2019s difficult to know just how out of reach the 2030 and 2035 targets are currently because it\u2019s possible that scrapped policies could be replaced with new measures. However, he warned the focus on striking grand bargains over fossil fuel development, that could see policies like the proposed emissions cap axed in exchange for stronger industrial carbon pricing, won\u2019t lead to a lasting truce.<\/p>\n The proposed cap on oil and gas emissions is a cap and trade system, meaning a ceiling for emissions is put in place that allows a certain amount of pollution to occur. As the cap is tightened, companies would be obligated to cut their emissions or buy credits from companies that do. An industrial carbon price, on the other hand, does not impose a ceiling, but does put a dollar figure on each tonne of pollution that increases each year, offering incentive to companies to lower emissions.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cThe problem there is [stronger industrial carbon pricing is] not going to be enough,\u201d Stewart said. \u201cThe oil industry’s end game is to get the federal government out of pricing and regulating carbon and have them leave it to the provinces.\u201d<\/p>\n Relying on an industrial carbon price requires cooperating with provinces. In Canada, provinces and territories\u00a0have first crack at designing their own carbon-pricing systems<\/a> that meet a federal benchmark, meaning the federal carbon price is a backstop policy. But it has been controversial. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith\u00a0froze the industrial price<\/a> with no plans to resume its scheduled increase in May, Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe decided to\u00a0simply not collect the industrial carbon price<\/a>, and Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre\u00a0said he would repeal<\/a> the policy entirely. In other words, Carney\u2019s decision to rely on it further is a risky bet, Stewart said.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cIf you’re doubling down on a policy that requires the cooperation of the provinces, and the two major petroprovinces aren’t cooperating right now, why do you think they’ll cooperate on a stronger one?\u201d he said.\u00a0<\/p>\n Framing the climate strategy as a \u201ccompetitiveness\u201d strategy underscores Carney\u2019s long-held belief that managing the risks posed by climate change are of the utmost importance to financial institutions and investors. But it also hints at the more industry-friendly side of Carney that has dominated since he was elected prime minister. Carney has spent months discussing the potential to develop billions of dollars\u2019 worth of new fossil fuel infrastructure, from pipelines to LNG export terminals \u2014 an economic strategy firmly at odds with climate science and international energy forecasts.<\/p>\n Laura Tozer, an assistant professor at the University of Toronto who researches energy transition issues, said Carney\u2019s decision to backslide on the EV sales mandate and appoint Dawn Farrell, CEO of Trans Mountain, to lead his Major Projects Office are worrying signs that the prime minister is working with an \u201coutdated idea\u201d on what economic competitiveness means.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cCompetitiveness internationally means participating in the sustainable energy transition,\u201d she said. \u201cWhat we should be trying to do is leading by going where the puck is going, and that takes a rejection of [fossil fuels] that has been a key part of Canadian politics for so long.\u201d<\/p>\n Economic competitiveness won\u2019t be achieved by trying to be both a clean and fossil fuel energy superpower, the way Carney has pitched, she said.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cThat\u2019s a losing idea. It undercuts any kind of gains you\u2019d get from sustainable energy investments\u2026 and sinks more losses into fossil fuel infrastructure.\u201d<\/p>\n Lobbying influence<\/p>\n The climate strategy does not have a firm timeline for public release, but the upcoming first tranche of major projects<\/a> is set to come out this week.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n The first batch of projects is widely expected to focus on port infrastructure and projects considered by federal officials to be \u201cstuck\u201d in the regulatory process, which could include new fossil fuel projects, such as LNG Canada Phase 2 and Cedar LNG. Some climate advocates see the climate strategy as a way for Carney to distract from a list of major projects that could worsen climate change.\u00a0<\/p>\n The climate strategy may also be a way for Carney\u2019s government to preview measures that will be funded in the upcoming federal budget \u2014 when close political observers\u00a0expect so-called grand bargains<\/a> to be revealed.\u00a0<\/p>\n