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, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring<\/a>.<\/p>\nNote: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today’s MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news<\/a>.<\/p>\n Jump to: Pitching notes<\/a> | Hitting notes<\/a> | Betting tips<\/a> Pitchers to stream Sunday<\/p>\n Yu Darvish<\/a> has been frugal with the long ball in recent seasons, but lately he’s suffering from a bout of gopheritis. The veteran has surrendered at least one home run in seven straight games, totaling nine in 33\u2154 innings. Darvish should reverse the trend when the San Diego Padres<\/a> host the Colorado Rockies<\/a>. The Rockies tote one of the lowest road home run rates, which is further suppressed by Petco Park.<\/p>\n Jose Quintana<\/a> has outpitched his peripherals most of the season. However, the lefty has posted a 7.56 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over his past three outings, spanning 16\u2154 innings. Even with the struggles, Quintana pitched into the seventh inning in his prior two efforts, keeping his points league scoring afloat. The Milwaukee Brewers<\/a> host the St. Louis Cardinals<\/a>, and the visitors are vulnerable to left-handed pitching, sporting one of the lowest home run rates with a southpaw on the hill.<\/p>\n Slade Cecconi<\/a> is coming off one of the best outings of his career, blanking the Kansas City Royals<\/a> over eight frames and keeping the Cleveland Guardians<\/a> within striking distance of the AL wild-card chase. Sometimes after an extended effort, the team will manage the innings in the next trip to the hill, but Cecconi threw a reasonable 100 pitches, so there should be no restriction when he faces the Chicago White Sox<\/a> at home.<\/p>\n Pitchers to avoid Sunday<\/p>\n Sunday is the final day of Playoff Round 1 in ESPN head-to-head leagues, so your team needs dictate risk aversion, but beware that Aaron Nola<\/a> isn’t safe despite coming off his best performance of the season. The Philadelphia Phillies<\/a> host the Kansas City Royals<\/a> in the final game of the weekend interleague set. In the four games before Nola stifled the New York Mets<\/a> last time out, the veteran registered an 8.38 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. The Royals’ pesky “move-the-line” offense is the type that can give Nola fits, considering his command and control aren’t quite back.<\/p>\n Today’s best matchups for pitchers<\/p>\n Seattle Mariners<\/a> pitchers vs. Angels hitters Chicago Cubs<\/a> pitchers vs. Rays hitters San Diego Padres<\/a> pitchers vs. Rockies hitters Today’s worst matchups for pitchers<\/p>\n Boston Red Sox<\/a> pitchers vs. Yankees hitters Kansas City Royals<\/a> pitchers vs. Phillies hitters Houston Astros<\/a> pitchers vs. Braves hitters Hitters to stream SundayToday’s best matchups for hitters<\/p>\n Minnesota Twins<\/a> LHB vs. Diamondbacks pitchers Boston Red Sox LHB vs. Yankees pitchers Toronto Blue Jays<\/a> RHB vs. Orioles pitchers Today’s worst matchups for hitters<\/p>\n Los Angeles Angels<\/a> RHB vs. Mariners pitchers Tampa Bay Rays<\/a> LHB vs. Cubs pitchers Chicago Cubs RHB vs. Rays pitchers Betting tips<\/p>\n Best\/worst pitcher\/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.<\/p>\n Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.<\/p>\n Today’s top HR prop bets<\/p>\n Vladimir Guerrero Jr<\/a> | OVER 0.5 HR (+425)<\/a> Alejandro Kirk<\/a> | OVER 0.5 HR (+600)<\/a> Michael Harris II<\/a> | OVER 0.5 HR (+1000)<\/a> Today’s top pitcher prop bets<\/p>\n Tyler Glasnow<\/a> | UNDER 6.5 K (+110)<\/a> Cade Cavalli<\/a> | UNDER 4.5 K (+120)<\/a> German Marquez<\/a> | UNDER 3.5 K (-115)<\/a> Today’s top YRFI\/NRFI bets<\/p>\n Angels @ Mariners | NRFI (-105) Astros @ Braves | YRFI (-105) Orioles @ Blue Jays | YRFI (+105)
Reliever depth chart<\/a> <\/p>\n
Offense: B | Park: A+ | Umpire: B | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.33 ERA in this matchup.<\/p>\n
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: C- | Wind: A+ | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.52 ERA in this matchup.<\/p>\n
Offense: A | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.62 ERA in this matchup.<\/p>\n
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: B- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.04 ERA in this matchup.<\/p>\n
Offense: D | Park: D | Umpire: F | Temperature: D | Wind: B | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.97 ERA in this matchup.<\/p>\n
Offense: D | Park: C | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.94 ERA in this matchup.<\/p>\n
SP: A+ | Bullpen: C | Park: B | Umpire: C | Framing: D | Temperature: B | Wind: D | Home
The average hitter would post a .346 wOBA in this matchup.<\/p>\n
SP: B | Bullpen: B | Park: A | Umpire: C | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .346 wOBA in this matchup.<\/p>\n
SP: A | Bullpen: B | Park: C | Umpire: D | Framing: A | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .341 wOBA in this matchup.<\/p>\n
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Umpire: D | Framing: F | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .258 wOBA in this matchup.<\/p>\n
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: D | Umpire: B | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: F | Away
The average hitter would post a .270 wOBA in this matchup.<\/p>\n
SP: C | Bullpen: C | Park: D | Umpire: B | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: F | Home
The average hitter would post a .281 wOBA in this matchup.<\/p>\n
Projection: 22% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.35 EV
One reason to bet this: Guerrero hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 88th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.<\/p>\n
Projection: 16% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.97 EV
One reason to bet this: In terms of his home runs, Kirk has had bad variance on his side this year. His 15.6 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been deflated compared to my projected expected HR\/600 of 20.6.<\/p>\n
Projection: 10% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.35 EV
One reason to bet this: My projections estimate Harris’ true offensive talent to be a .324 wOBA, suggesting that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .045 deviation between that figure and his actual .279 wOBA.<\/p>\n
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.97 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2 mph in this contest, the strongest of the day for hitters.<\/p>\n
Projection: 51% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.41 EV
One reason to bet this: Expected starting catcher Riley Adams<\/a> projects to be a weak pitch framer.<\/p>\n
Projection: 57% chance of this bet hitting, with a $7.61 EV
One reason to bet this: The Padres (projected 18.7 K%) are expected to have the least strikeout-prone set of hitters of all teams on today’s slate.<\/p>\n
Projection: 55% chance of NO RUN with a $7.52 EV<\/p>\n
Projection: 54% chance of RUN with a $5.88 EV<\/p>\n
Projection: 50% chance of RUN with a $3.38 EV<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Sep 14, 2025, 07:09 AM ET Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":143435,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[435],"tags":[49,48,462,82],"class_list":["post-143434","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mlb","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-mlb","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/143434","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=143434"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/143434\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/143435"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=143434"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=143434"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=143434"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}