Good morning. Canada\u2019s housing market is back in motion, though far from in balance. Sales are climbing, but prices are moving in very different directions from one region to the next. That\u2019s in focus today, along with a look at one effect of killing a carbon tax. <\/p>\n
Up firstIn the news<\/p>\n
Mining: Prime Minister Mark Carney told Anglo American to move its headquarters to Canada<\/a> for Ottawa to approve its acquisition of Teck Resources.<\/p>\n Finance: Artis Real Estate Investment Trust is buying the mortgage company run by its board chair<\/a> and plans on branding itself as a financial-services company under a new name.<\/p>\n Retail: The son of the late DavidsTea founder Herschel Segal is calling for an overhaul of the retailer\u2019s leadership<\/a>, saying his half-sister is not fit to continue as chief executive officer.<\/p>\n Trade: Carney is travelling to Mexico tomorrow as part of his push<\/a> to expand trade with countries beyond the United States, a visit that also serves to patch up strained ties with Canada\u2019s third-largest trading partner.<\/p>\n On our radar todayStatistics Canada publishes August inflation numbers on the eve of the Bank of Canada\u2019s rate decision.U.S. retail sales data offer a gauge of consumer strength ahead of the Federal Reserve\u2019s expected rate cut tomorrow.Open this photo in gallery:<\/a><\/p>\n Back in the House, talking about houses: Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, left, shakes hands with Prime Minister Mark Carney.Adrian Wyld\/The Canadian Press<\/p>\n In focusWindows opening onto different worlds<\/p>\n A new session of Parliament opened with shelter at the centre of debate, as Ottawa rolled out Build Canada Homes, the flagship agency Prime Minister Mark Carney promised during the election campaign to make housing more affordable. <\/p>\n With $13-billion in initial capital, the agency is intended to develop non-market housing on federal land in partnership with the private sector, an approach that supporters describe as long overdue and critics dismiss as another layer of bureaucracy. <\/p>\n Carney\u2019s government has cast the plan as a way to put idle public assets to work while driving innovation in construction, but it also reflects Ottawa\u2019s recognition that market supply alone is not meeting demand. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.\u2019s latest report shows housing starts are flat, with Toronto and Vancouver needing far more construction over the next decade to restore affordability.<\/p>\n Advocates of non-profit and affordable housing have welcomed the focus on supply outside the conventional market, though they warn that the scale will have to be far larger to shift national affordability trends. Conservatives, meanwhile, have dismissed the agency as yet another layer of bureaucracy that risks slowing the very projects it is meant to accelerate. <\/p>\n With housing starts across major metropolitan areas running at their weakest pace in decades, the debate over whether Build Canada Homes represents a potential breakthrough or a bottleneck is set to shape the political fight over housing through the fall.<\/p>\n Imbalances in supply, price and region<\/p>\n That fight finds a housing market struggling to tell a coherent story. (You and me both, housing market.) Starts across Canada\u2019s seven key census metropolitan areas in the first half of 2025 were flat compared with the same period a year earlier, according to CMHC, which said the apparent stability masked sharp regional differences. <\/p>\n In Toronto, starts are at their weakest per capita level since 1996, and CMHC estimates both Toronto and Vancouver would need 30 per cent to 70 per cent more starts over the next decade to restore affordability. Developers point to high municipal charges, lengthy approval processes and weak preconstruction sales as barriers to new projects, factors that are keeping supply tight even as demand begins to return.<\/p>\n Prices have also failed to recover despite the increase in transactions. The national benchmark slipped 0.1 per cent in August to $687,300 and is down 3.5 per cent from a year earlier. Toronto has retreated to 2021 levels, while Vancouver has also declined on both a monthly and annual basis.<\/p>\n Winnipeg and St. John\u2019s each posted double-digit annual gains, supported by relative affordability and stronger job markets. In the Manitoba capital\u2019s case, Wahi economist Ryan McLaughlin pointed to a demographic change \u2013 the province\u2019s first net population gain in more than 20 years \u2013 as a key factor behind the increase.<\/p>\n Buyers be there<\/p>\n Canadians are tiptoeing back into the market as slightly lower borrowing costs and softer prices make purchases more feasible, with the Canadian Real Estate Association pointing to pent-up demand from the spring as another factor. The organization\u2019s August report showed 40,714 homes sold nationally, a 1.1-per-cent increase from July and the busiest August since 2021, when sales were still running at boom-time levels. <\/p>\n The rebound stretched across several major markets, with Montreal, Vancouver and Ottawa all recording gains, though Toronto remained a drag on the national picture. At the same time, supply began to loosen as more homeowners tested conditions, pushing new listings up 2.6 per cent to nearly 80,000. Together, the return of buyers and the flow of new inventory suggest that the fall market will be more active than the past two years, Shaun Cathcart, CREA\u2019s senior economist, told The Globe and Mail.<\/p>\n ChartedWhen you lack a carbon tax<\/p>\n A fiscal update released yesterday shows British Columbia\u2019s provincial outlook has declined<\/a> and the government\u2019s deficit will rise in the current fiscal year to a record $11.6-billion, in part because of U.S. tariffs and a slowdown in the housing market. But mostly, Justine Hunter reports, the rise in red ink is a result of the NDP government\u2019s elimination of the carbon tax.<\/p>\n BookmarkedOn our reading list<\/p>\n In bed: Yes, getting older changes your sleep. Here\u2019s what you can do to fight back.<\/a><\/p>\n At work: Why employers chose this moment to go against worker preferences<\/a>.<\/p>\n On the pod: The challenges ahead for Carney as Parliament resumes. You can find the newest episode of The Decibel here.<\/a><\/p>\n Morning update<\/p>\n