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<\/a><\/p>\nThe NHL may run on star power, but no run lasts forever. It all depends on how bright and long a team\u2019s stars can shine \u2014 and whether there\u2019s someone ready to step in and fill the future void.<\/p>\n
When it comes to rating a team\u2019s present and future, this exercise isn\u2019t everything. Many other factors can dictate how high a team climbs. The other players on the team, the organizational prospect depth, the coach, the front office, the salary cap \u2014 they all matter too. However, when it comes to measuring a team\u2019s ceiling, the strength of their core group matters most.<\/p>\n
None of this is set in stone: The entire idea is that teams move within the cycle. Players and teams have the power to alter their perception and change their path. This is merely a snapshot of where each team enters the 2025-26 season, something that can be changed during the season with stronger play, better drafting, surprise breakouts and\/or savvy management. The opposite is true, too.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Using that rubric, we\u2019ve separated each team into nine tiers based on their place within the Contention Cycle. Here\u2019s where they land both now and in the future, which players get them there, and what their path to sustainable contention is.<\/p>\n
You can find the methodology behind Present Rating and Future Rating at the bottom of this post.<\/p>\n
Tier Limited Ceiling Rebuild Time Rebuilding Win Later Win Now Window Closed Window Closing Window Open Window Opening<\/p>\n
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Loading<\/p>\n
Try changing or resetting your filters to see more.<\/p>\n
Window Open<\/p>\n
Present Outlook (Rating: 9.4)<\/p>\n
Only Florida has more representation in the top 150 than Dallas\u2019 eight players, five of which reside in the top three tiers. The Stars have built a strong foundation, one that\u2019s made it to the Western Conference final in three straight seasons. <\/p>\n
The addition of Rantanen is massive as it gives the Stars one more bona fide franchise player behind Miro Heiskanen. Jason Robertson and Thomas Harley have both shown the ability to play at that level and currently sit on the cusp in 3A.<\/p>\n
What the Stars lack is a true Tier 1 player, which has arguably been the difference in their last two conference finals losses at the hands of the Oilers. Maybe another crack or two at it will finally do the trick for a still-growing core; Dallas has arguably the league\u2019s most wide-open window. But at the top of the totem pole, that lack of MVP-level talent is a defining difference between the Stars and the two Cup finalists from the last two years. <\/p>\n
The Stars have a deep core, but is it high-end enough?<\/p>\n
Future Outlook (Rating: 8.6)<\/p>\n
The Stars may not have the prospects that the rebuilding teams have, but in Johnston and Harley, they’ve got two of the best young players in the game who’ve already joined their core and will help bridge the gap between eras. Lian Bichsel looks like a potential Esa Lindell replacement as well, giving their group good variety. Heiskanen and Roope Hintz are both on the right side of 30 for the next couple of years as well.<\/p>\n
It’s going to be a challenge for them to keep hitting on late-firsts and late-seconds at the clip they have, but they’ve put themselves in a strong position even if the draft returns start to slow down \u2014 and even after dealing Logan Stankoven.<\/p>\n
The Stars are arguably in one of the best situations in hockey, given how strong their core looks both now and in the future. Their ability to transition between eras seamlessly has been the envy of the league, and it has the team in a great position to contend for a long time. The Stars aren\u2019t just a problem this year \u2014 they\u2019ll still be one in five years, too.<\/p>\n
Now comes the hard part: putting it all together and finally getting over the hump. The Stars have made the conference finals in three straight seasons now, but have fallen short each time. It\u2019s a reminder that the Stanley Cup is an extremely difficult trophy to win and that what Dallas has still isn\u2019t good enough.<\/p>\n
What the Stars need is a bit more support around their foundation (especially on defense), and for some players lower in the tiers to really pop. A step back to franchise status for Robertson, a breakthrough to that level for Harley, a massive leap from Johnston; those would all go a long way. Rantanen playing like a Tier 1 winger consistently enough to jump to that level wouldn\u2019t hurt either.<\/p>\n
Tier 2: Miro Heiskanen, Mikko Rantanen<\/p>\n
Tier 3: Thomas Harley, Jason Robertson, Jake Oettinger<\/p>\n
Tier 4: Wyatt Johnston, Roope Hintz<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Esa Lindell<\/p>\n
Tier 2: Wyatt Johnston, Thomas Harley<\/p>\n
Tier 3: Miro Heiskanen, Jake Oettinger<\/p>\n
Tier 4: Jason Robertson, Mikko Rantanen<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Lian Bichsel<\/p>\n
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Present Outlook (Rating: 9.3)<\/p>\n
As long as Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl remain two of the absolute best players in the world, the West goes through Edmonton. Evan Bouchard elevating his game to franchise-worthy come playoff time also helps. That\u2019s a big three that is simply unrivalled leaguewide now that the Avalanche are down one franchise player. The Panthers and Lightning also have three franchise stars, but neither has a 1A superstar. Edmonton has two.<\/p>\n
The rest of the core, though, has become a massive question mark. All three of Mattias Ekholm, Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins took sizeable steps back last year and are on the wrong side of 30. Another move in the wrong direction for the support core is Edmonton\u2019s largest present concern. It can\u2019t all be on the big three.<\/p>\n
Future Outlook (Rating: 7.4)<\/p>\n
The Oilers\u2019 Future Rating holds strong because McDavid and Draisaitl are going to hold strong, but Bouchard\u2019s emergence as one of the league\u2019s top players at his position makes a world of difference (it\u2019s easy to forget that Bouchard is 25 years old). <\/p>\n
The other holdover contenders (ahem, the Lightning and Panthers) also don\u2019t have any players who made Prospect Tiers, and while Matt Savoie and Ike Howard aren\u2019t going to move the needle, if one of them becomes a cost-controlled second-liner for the Oilers in their cap crunch, that matters.<\/p>\n
The Oilers are soooooo close. But close is not close enough. Not when they\u2019ve been bested twice at the hands of the same team.<\/p>\n
Now entering Year 11 of the McDavid era, the clock is ticking. The first step to continuing the current contention path is extending McDavid. That\u2019s priority No. 1.<\/p>\n
After that, it\u2019s about finding the next wave to supplement the declines of Hyman, Nugent-Hopkins and Ekholm \u2014 all of whom are in their 30s. Can Howard and Savoie be that up front? Can Jake Walman fill Ekholm\u2019s shoes on the back end?<\/p>\n
The biggest X-factor, obviously, is finding a solution in net. Almost every one of Edmonton\u2019s biggest contender threats has a goalie that made the top 150. Another year with Stuart Skinner leading the way would be a difficult choice. The Oilers can\u2019t afford to waste another season.<\/p>\n
Tier 1: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl<\/p>\n
Tier 2: Evan Bouchard<\/p>\n
Tier 4: Mattias Ekholm, Zach Hyman<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins<\/p>\n
Tier 1: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl<\/p>\n
Tier 4: Evan Bouchard<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Matt Savoie, Ike Howard<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Present Outlook (Rating: 7.1)<\/p>\n
Progress isn\u2019t linear, but it is a little concerning that the Devils have seemingly taken a step back in this exercise. <\/p>\n
Part of that is the panel dropping Jack Hughes from 1C, wanting to see actual MVP-level dominance (and good health) before projecting a jump to that level. He has to earn it.<\/p>\n
The other part is the team\u2019s defense. Dougie Hamilton is the lone representative and his place in 5A isn\u2019t ideal for a top dog. Luke Hughes was close to making the cut, but like his brother he also needs to earn it. How far he climbs could dictate just how competitive the Devils can be next season.<\/p>\n
Based on the team\u2019s core, the Devils look like a dark horse going into 2025-26. To become a true contender, the team\u2019s top-level players will need to take a noticeable step forward.<\/p>\n
Future Outlook (Rating: 8.2)<\/p>\n
The Devils are in a unique spot as an organization, with a nucleus of core forwards in their early-to-mid-20s (J. Hughes, Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt) and a group of young D prospects that is among the strongest in league in L. Hughes, Simon Nemec and Anton Silayev. Not even captured in the Prospect Tiers is Seamus Casey, who represents a bit of a wild-card and could have easily ranked in Tier 5C, too.<\/p>\n
The challenge for the Devils will be to line up the timelines of their established forwards with their young defensemen. It can be hard to develop young D in the NHL while trying to win, which has already created some challenges with Nemec. But maximizing Nemec and Silayev may be the difference in setting their ceiling and maintaining their status in the Metro, especially as Hamilton ages. <\/p>\n
If they can pull it off and manage the cap while they do it, they won’t be going anywhere anytime soon.<\/p>\n
Tier 2: Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier<\/p>\n
Tier 3: Jesper Bratt<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Dougie Hamilton, Timo Meier, Jacob Markstrom<\/p>\n
Tier 1: Jack Hughes<\/p>\n
Tier 3: Nico Hischier, Luke Hughes<\/p>\n
Tier 4: Simon Nemec, Mikhail Yegorov, Anton Silayev<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Jesper Bratt<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Present Outlook (Rating: 6.4)<\/p>\n
The question with the Hurricanes is the same one we\u2019ve had for years: is their ceiling high enough? Sure, it\u2019s not nothing to find regular-season success and win some rounds. But it\u2019s been same old, same old against teams with more high-end skill come playoff time.<\/p>\n
Carolina does have Sebastian Aho and Jaccob Slavin as franchise pieces, and Seth Jarvis is also close. The addition of Nikolaj Ehlers is huge and Andrei Svechnikov is still kicking around too. It just hasn\u2019t been enough \u2014 not yet, anyway. That can change if Aho becomes a 90-point center, Jarvis takes the next step, Ehlers proves his worth in a bigger role or Svechnikov finally breaks through. There\u2019s just too many ifs.<\/p>\n
The Hurricanes\u2019 oomph problem is one the franchise looks to be keenly aware of as they\u2019re always in the mix for the biggest names. But they didn\u2019t get Matthew Tkachuk, Jake Guentzel left and Mikko Rantanen didn\u2019t work. <\/p>\n
Maybe Ehlers ends up being the guy or a young player really steps up. Maybe the team\u2019s depth approach actually works (and maybe the Hurricanes deserved another name within the Top 150) making this exercise moot. We just need to actually see it to believe it. <\/p>\n
Until that happens, Carolina\u2019s ability to get over the hump will always come under fire.<\/p>\n
Future Outlook (Rating: 8.1)<\/p>\n
The Canes have had a consistently good core while maintaining a consistently good pool for years. They’ve now added Logan Stankoven and Jackson Blake to that group. Next in line are Alexander Nikishin and Bradly Nadeau. Even further down the line could be a goalie of the future in Semyon Frolov. Nikishin didn’t qualify for Prospect Tiers now that he’s 23 but because of the unique path he took out of Russia and the lack of NHL experience, we decided to poll some scouts and include him if they felt he belonged. After landing in Tier 3B a year ago, they felt a Tier 3C slotting with young D like Detroit’s Simon Edvinsson was appropriate. <\/p>\n
Nadeau, Stankoven and Blake are all viewed comparably as Tier 3\/4\/5 guys who will be important pieces but not elevate the Canes past where they’ve hovered. Nikishin is the wild card. If he’s a first-pairing stud, he could make a difference before their current core ages out.\n<\/p>\n
The Canes feel like the Stars in that they\u2019ve managed to bridge between eras with these subtle age gaps between a series of impactful players (Aho\/Slavin into Jarvis\/Svechnikov into hopefully Nikishin\/Stankoven and co.). The difference might be, though, that the Stars have Heiskanen, who is likely going to sustain longer in Tier 2 than Aho and Slavin. <\/p>\n
And while the Canes aren\u2019t going anywhere and we\u2019re confident they should remain one of the Metro\u2019s better teams in the short and maybe even medium term, there is a more theoretical question to ask about whether you can win the Stanley Cup with a core of Tier 3 players. The Canes look like they’ll continue to try to if they can’t land the big fish at some point. In fact, their future actually looks better today than it did a year ago thanks to the additions of Ehlers and Stankoven, and the emergence of Blake.<\/p>\n
Tier 2: Sebastian Aho, Jaccob Slavin<\/p>\n
Tier 3: Seth Jarvis<\/p>\n
Tier 4: Nikolaj Ehlers, Andrei Svechnikov<\/p>\n
Tier 3: Seth Jarvis, Sebastian Aho, Logan Stankoven, Alexander Nikishin<\/p>\n
Tier 4: Jaccob Slavin, Andrei Svechnikov<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Jackson Blake, Bradly Nadeau, Semyon Frolov<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Window Closing<\/p>\n
Present Outlook (Rating: 9.9)<\/p>\n
Florida has it all: an MVP-level shutdown center, two franchise wingers, a two-way No. 1 defenseman, a stud goalie and more star support than most teams could imagine. No team is better situated to win right now than the team that\u2019s won back-to-back titles. And there are no signs of slowing down either. The Panthers ended up with 10(!) representatives in the top 150, which speaks volumes about the reverence their roster carries league-wide. <\/p>\n
It\u2019s more than possible many of the team\u2019s players are being overrated right now by a collective \u201cFlorida Effect.\u201d Maybe the five guys in Tier 4 and 5 aren\u2019t actually as good as their ranking. Maybe they\u2019re beneficiaries of a rising tide. But their consensus placement here is also a testament to the fear factor the Panthers franchise currently instills. <\/p>\n
This Panthers team, a group that\u2019s mostly the same as the one that steamrolled four elite teams en route to another title, is a serious problem for everyone else.<\/p>\n
Future Outlook (Rating: 5)<\/p>\n
The cost of chasing rings is typically picks and prospects. Mackie Samoskevich is a fine young player but he was a bubble guy for the Prospect Tiers who was ultimately left off when nobody really went to bat for him. He\u2019s also it. There\u2019s nothing else coming and they’ve already dealt their first-round picks in 2026 and 2027.<\/p>\n
Right now, the Panthers’ future is entirely dependent on Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart and co. sustaining as the league\u2019s premier core. For the time being, they will be. But it won\u2019t last forever. All good things eventually come to an end. Can they add a third ring before the clock starts to run down?<\/p>\n
The Panthers literally just need to keep doing what they\u2019re already doing. They\u2019re the current class of the league and should remain at that level in the very near term. <\/p>\n
The question is just how long the current window stays open. Their Present Rating suggests they\u2019re the team to beat in 2025-26, but their Future Rating suggests a drop-off to wild-card caliber in five years\u2019 time. What does that mean for Years 2, 3 and 4?<\/p>\n
The focus has to be on the very immediate future: cement the dynasty and do it all again in the two years after that. Those are the all-in years for Florida, and if the last two seasons are any indication, the Panthers know exactly how to play their cards right.<\/p>\n
Tier 1: Aleksander Barkov<\/p>\n
Tier 2: Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart<\/p>\n
Tier 3: Gustav Forsling, Sergei Bobrovsky<\/p>\n
Tier 4: Sam Bennett, Seth Jones, Carter Verhaeghe<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Aaron Ekblad, Brad Marchand<\/p>\n
Tier 2: Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk<\/p>\n
Tier 3: Sam Reinhart<\/p>\n
Tier 4: Gustav Forsling<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Present Outlook (Rating: 9.8)<\/p>\n
The biggest thing standing in Tampa Bay\u2019s way is that there\u2019s an even better team in its own division. Based on the top of the Lightning lineup, no team is closer to the Panthers\u2019 core going into next season. Close isn\u2019t close enough, though, and Tampa Bay learned that the hard way last season.<\/p>\n
The Lightning will get a chance to avenge that this season and what\u2019s being undersold is that they, like the Panthers, are also bringing almost everyone back. That\u2019s huge for a team that ranked second in goal differential last season and starts the year with three franchise guys and six players in 3A or higher. Only six other teams have three or more, and only Dallas has four. The tippy-top of Tampa Bay\u2019s lineup is unrivalled in depth.<\/p>\n
The question is how those players age going into next season. Four of the six are firmly in their 30s. Brayden Point is 29. And yet none of them slid down the tiers list going into this season based on the panel\u2019s recommendations.<\/p>\n
If everyone from Nikita Kucherov to Victor Hedman holds strong, the Lightning will once again be one of the league\u2019s best teams next season. But even one player dropping off more than expected could start a domino effect that puts the Lightning at a much bigger risk than their peers.<\/p>\n
Future Outlook (Rating: 3.5)<\/p>\n
The Lightning and the Panthers are basically in the exact same position, with the Lightning a little further down the track and removed from having done the thing. It\u2019s reasonable to expect the Panthers to be where the Lightning now are in a couple of years; the cupboards will still be bare, they\u2019ll still be a top team in the Atlantic, but they likely won’t still be an unstoppable force.<\/p>\n
Sam O\u2019Reilly and Conor Geekie got consideration for Prospect Tiers but neither are going to be ready to make a real enough impact before the sun sets on the Hedman, Kucherov, Point, Vasilevskiy core. <\/p>\n
How long do you keep trying to put your best foot forward and try to win another before aggressively hitting the reset button? That\u2019s a difficult question for teams in Tampa\u2019s situation to answer.<\/p>\n
Beat the Panthers. That\u2019s step one.<\/p>\n
Tampa Bay\u2019s cross-state rivals have been a thorn in its side during the last two seasons and that looks to be the case again going into 2025-26. Only the Panthers have a stronger high-end group than the Lightning.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s a big issue for the Lightning because the time is now to go the distance. They need to take advantage of Kucherov still being a Tier 1 player, Andrei Vasilevskiy still being a franchise goalie and Hedman still playing elite hockey. There\u2019s a real sense of urgency to squeeze the last ounces of championship upside from an aging core before it all comes crashing down. <\/p>\n
There\u2019s no help on the way \u2014 it\u2019s now or never. Everything Tampa Bay does has to be in service of winning it all this season. Because even after one year, things likely start getting dicey. <\/p>\n
Beat the Panthers. Then see what happens.<\/p>\n
Tier 1: Nikita Kucherov<\/p>\n
Tier 2: Brayden Point, Andrei Vasilevskiy<\/p>\n
Tier 3: Jake Guentzel, Brandon Hagel, Victor Hedman<\/p>\n
Tier 4: Anthony Cirelli<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Ryan McDonagh<\/p>\n
Tier 2: Nikita Kucherov<\/p>\n
Tier 3: Brayden Point<\/p>\n
Tier 4: Brandon Hagel<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Anthony Cirelli<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Present Outlook (Rating: 8.5)<\/p>\n
The difference between Mikko Rantanen and Martin Necas is the difference between Colorado\u2019s Present Rating landing here and closer to Edmonton or Dallas. The absence of Rantanen is a huge factor \u2014 it\u2019s one less franchise player that leaves Colorado third in the West\u2019s star-power pecking order. It was the difference in last year\u2019s first-round series against the Stars.<\/p>\n
What the Avalanche do have is Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar, both dominant 1A players capable of carrying this team to great heights. That\u2019s something only the Oilers can also boast, giving the Avalanche a starting point 30 other teams can\u2019t match.<\/p>\n
Between Necas, Devon Toews and Mackenzie Blackwood, the rest of the team\u2019s core is solid. But the Avalanche will need more off-list players to step up and play at a top-150 level in order to compare with the league\u2019s top four. Gabriel Landeskog, Brock Nelson and Valeri Nichushkin all have that upside.<\/p>\n
Future Outlook (Rating: 5.2)<\/p>\n
The Avs have been nothing if not consistent in their approach: There\u2019s MacKinnon and Makar, two potential future Hall of Famers, and then there\u2019s everybody else. The former require a constant push for another Cup. The latter starting point has meant more and more change, and more and more picks and prospects on the move.<\/p>\n
Six of the last seven first-round picks they\u2019ve made have all gone out the door: Martin Kaut, Bowen Byram, Alex Newhook, Justin Barron, Oskar Olausson, Calum Ritchie. When they moved Ritchie and Will Zellers at last year\u2019s deadline, they knew what it meant for their already dwindling pool.<\/p>\n
Mikhail Gulyayev, who was considered for Tier 5 in Prospect Tiers, is the only first-rounder left since the Makar pick back in 2017. He\u2019s also a sub-6-foot D in a league that\u2019s moving away from them. There are no forwards to speak of in their pool, either. <\/p>\n
The one real positive is that goalie Ilya Nabokov looks legit and isn\u2019t that far away. He and Mackenzie Blackwood could actually give MacKinnon and Makar a better tandem than they\u2019ve had to date.<\/p>\n
Uhh, is get another franchise player an option? <\/p>\n
That would be the best way for Colorado to get back up to the league\u2019s highest level with Florida and Edmonton, both of whom have three franchise guys. <\/p>\n
It\u2019s also not a necessity \u2014 not when the Avalanche have MacKinnon and Makar as a starting point. It really is all about continuing to build around them and hope the team has enough Tier 4 or 5 contributions to go the distance. The Avalanche have six players in the top 150; another two could help fill the Rantanen void.<\/p>\n
There are also internal solutions that can help. Necas flashed some immense offensive upside last season and while it\u2019s unlikely he jumps to Tier 2, becoming an everyday Tier 3 winger would be big. Same goes for Blackwood, who finally realized his potential last season and could become a top-10 starter with another strong season.<\/p>\n
As long as the Avalanche have MacKinnon and Makar playing Tier 1 hockey, they\u2019ll contend.<\/p>\n
Tier 1: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar<\/p>\n
Tier 3: Devon Toews<\/p>\n
Tier 4: Martin Necas<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Mackenzie Blackwood, Artturi Lehkonen<\/p>\n
Tier 1: Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon<\/p>\n
Tier 4: Ilya Nabokov<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Devon Toews<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Present Outlook (Rating: 8.2)<\/p>\n
The loss of Mitch Marner means Toronto\u2019s Present Rating dropped from 9.3 to 8.2 \u2014 from contender to dark horse. As was plain to see this summer, spending that leftover money on \u201cdepth\u201d isn\u2019t nearly as simple as some make it out to be. Having a lot of star power makes everything else go and without Marner, the Leafs fall behind the teams to beat this season. Now Auston Matthews and William Nylander are the team\u2019s only players in the top three tiers. That puts the Leafs way behind their top competition in the Atlantic.<\/p>\n
At the same time, as long as Toronto still has Matthews playing at a high rate, the Leafs are at least in the conversation. He’s one of the league\u2019s strongest starting points. It also helps that the team\u2019s supporting core has grown over the years. Matthew Knies\u2019 emergence plus the shockingly strong play of Anthony Stolarz helps bolster the overall group, keeping the Leafs in high standing\u2026 for now.<\/p>\n
Future Outlook (Rating: 3.4)<\/p>\n
The Leafs haven\u2019t held on to many first- or second-round picks and have moved Rasmus Sandin, Timothy Liljegren, Sean Durzi (ouch) and now Fraser Minten. Ben Danford may be next and is viewed as a low-upside type even if they hang onto him (as was Minten).<\/p>\n
That leaves Knies as their only recent success story to speak of and while he\u2019s a big one (literally), his status as the one of the game\u2019s top power forwards is going to be put to the test this season without Marner. Easton Cowan has some skeptics despite a pretty glossy OHL career as well.<\/p>\n
If your glass is half full, Matthews and Nylander still project to be elite players for years and Knies is a rare commodity that you have to believe still has some ceiling to grow into.<\/p>\n
If your glass is half empty, Knies is closer to maxed out and there’s going to be even more pressure on Matthews and Nylander to perform moving forward.<\/p>\n
The Core Four era is dead. It\u2019s time to shift gears and that means less of a top-heavy approach. Surrounding Matthews and Nylander with more capable depth is the new goal.<\/p>\n
Here\u2019s the problem with that: Toronto\u2019s two biggest threats in the Atlantic do that\u2026 but also have three franchise players, plus some immediate support beyond that. The Leafs lack the secondary core Florida and Tampa Bay possess, and without Marner they\u2019re now also behind the eight-ball when it comes to high-end talent.<\/p>\n
Matthews returning to 1A form is crucial to mitigating some of that. Nylander approaching the top of Tier 2 would also help. But that alone isn\u2019t enough. The Leafs will need one of Knies or Cowan to take a massive (and unexpected) step into Tier 3, and get some depth to step up elsewhere.<\/p>\n
The elephant in the room is that Toronto\u2019s best defenseman \u2014 whether you think that\u2019s Morgan Rielly, Chris Tanev or even Jake McCabe \u2014 just isn\u2019t good enough. Every other contender has a defenseman on their team that\u2019s in Tier 3 at the very least. The lack of a true No. 1 has arguably been one of the biggest things holding the Leafs back.<\/p>\n
Divisional competition, the loss of Marner, the lack of a No. 1 \u2014 that might be one too many problems to solve. But it’s not impossible. The Leafs have a needle to thread that starts with outlasting or besting Florida and Tampa Bay, and finding creative solutions to complex problems. <\/p>\n
Otherwise, it\u2019ll be 60 years and counting in two years.<\/p>\n
Tier 1: Auston Matthews<\/p>\n
Tier 2: William Nylander<\/p>\n
Tier 4: Matthew Knies, John Tavares<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Anthony Stolarz, Morgan Rielly, Chris Tanev<\/p>\n
Tier 2: Auston Matthews<\/p>\n
Tier 3: Matthew Knies<\/p>\n
Tier 4: William Nylander<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Easton Cowan<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Window Opening<\/p>\n
Present Outlook (Rating: 4.5)<\/p>\n
The Canadiens took a massive step forward last season, enough to shift their status away from the league\u2019s perennial rebuilding teams and toward those that will be competing for a playoff spot this year. <\/p>\n
Nick Suzuki and Lane Hutson headline the 2025-26 season as All-Star caliber players and there\u2019s still room to grow there. Sam Montembeault has proven he\u2019s a legit starter and Cole Caufield offers a whole lot of goal support. <\/p>\n
That core alone probably wouldn\u2019t have been enough to stave off regression, so the Canadiens went out and bolstered their defense group with the addition of Noah Dobson. A quality defenseman is the exact piece this team needed to stay competitive after last year\u2019s unexpected jump.<\/p>\n
Future Outlook (Rating: 9.8)<\/p>\n
There\u2019s a lot of belief out there that Ivan Demidov is going to become one of the league\u2019s most talented wingers. That, in and of itself, raises the Habs\u2019 ceiling. <\/p>\n
But Juraj Slafkovsky and Jacob Fowler feel like the X-factors as to whether it can hit another level. We know what Suzuki and Caufield are at this point. We\u2019ve seen Hutson\u2019s impact. We\u2019ll see Dobson\u2019s. Michael Hage and Zack Bolduc could give them some talented complementary producers. David Reinbacher\u2019s going to be a really solid piece of the back end, a lot like Kaiden Guhle already is. <\/p>\n
But Slafkovsky becoming one of the league\u2019s top big men and Fowler turning into a top-10 goalie? Those two, with Demidov, can change everything if they hit. If Hutson and Demidov both get to Tier 2, that gets you a long way there. But a third player of that caliber usually makes the difference.<\/p>\n
There\u2019s always more risk when you\u2019re talking about \u2014 and relying on \u2014 the future to play out just right, but when you\u2019ve amassed as much potential as the Habs have (ie. the No. 1 Future Rating in the league), you do raise the odds.<\/p>\n
Still, we\u2019ve watched teams flounder as they navigate the chapter the Habs are about to attempt. It\u2019s hard to incorporate young talent, even when it\u2019s high-end. It\u2019s even harder to hit that contending window before everyone has to get paid, or to convince them to take a haircut (see: Toronto).<\/p>\n
The Sabres have tried to build around youth unsuccessfully for more than a decade. Jack Eichel gave up on it. Who knows whether Rasmus Dahlin eventually will. That\u2019s the risk.<\/p>\n
But it is possible, and Kent Hughes seems to have played his cards right so far, which obviously hasn\u2019t been the case for teams like Buffalo. No matter how high they manage to raise their ceiling, though, the Habs are compelling again and the league’s better off for it.<\/p>\n
Tier 3: Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson<\/p>\n
Tier 4: Noah Dobson<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Sam Montembeault, Cole Caufield<\/p>\n
Tier 2: Lane Hutson, Ivan Demidov<\/p>\n
Tier 3: Juraj Slafkovsky, Jacob Fowler<\/p>\n
Tier 4: Nick Suzuki, David Reinbacher<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Noah Dobson, Sam Montembeault, Zach Bolduc, Cole Caufield, Michael Hage<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Present Outlook (Rating: 4.4)<\/p>\n
Last year the Red Wings faced important questions regarding whether the core they were building would be strong enough. Since then, we\u2019ve gotten some answers. <\/p>\n
Moritz Seider and Lucas Raymond both took big steps forward, entrenching themselves in Tier 3 and joining Dylan Larkin. Both flashed Tier 2 upside and one or both taking that step will be the key to Detroit jumping over the Present Rating line toward the bona fide playoff teams.<\/p>\n
The other consideration is Simon Edvinsson, who debuts in 5B. How far he can climb, and whether another Red Wing can debut next season, can also dictate where Detroit lands. For now, based on their stars, it\u2019s still on the outside looking in.<\/p>\n
Future Outlook (Rating: 8.7)<\/p>\n
The Red Wings have chosen with their drafting and the core they\u2019ve committed to try to win more like the Blues did \u2014 as a top-to-to-bottom team of like-minded players \u2014 rather than with the star power that drove the Panthers, Avalanche and Lightning. Red Wings fans will remind you that their poor lottery luck may have forced them down that path, too, and they\u2019d have a point.<\/p>\n
But where they are is still where they are, and that\u2019s with a cast of very good players and prospects but missing a Tier 1\/2 guy (or three). Even if a Raymond or a Seider can move into the bottom of Tier 2, that probably won\u2019t be enough either. <\/p>\n
Edvinsson looks like a stud and should help them go from the playoff fringes into the wild-card as he continues to establish himself as a No. 2 D. Marco Kasper took an important step last year. Carter Bear\u2019s going to be a real player for them in the Zach Hyman mold. Nate Danielson is on his own path to becoming an NHLer. They should have their goalie of the future in one of Trey Augustine or Sebastian Cossa. <\/p>\n
But they don\u2019t have a truly elite, drag-you-to-a-Cup player and they don\u2019t have one of the very few prospects in the game who can become that. That\u2019s going to make contending with the current powers in the Atlantic tough in the short and medium term, and leaves them behind the Habs in terms of future outlook in the long term as well.<\/p>\n
There’s a reason the 2019 Blues were a lightning-in-a-bottle anomaly. Is it possible to win with that kind of team? Sure. Is it harder to pull off than on the back of the league’s true horses? There shouldn’t be any debating that anymore. It’s harder. <\/p>\n
The Red Wings are going to have to be deeper than everybody else and put on their big-boy pants when it matters most.<\/p>\n
Tier 3: Dylan Larkin, Moritz Seider, Lucas Raymond<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Alex DeBrincat, Simon Edvinsson<\/p>\n
Tier 3: Lucas Raymond, Moritz Seider, Simon Edvinsson<\/p>\n
Tier 4: Axel Sandin Pellikka, Dylan Larkin, Trey Augustine, Marco Kasper, Carter Bear<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Sebastian Cossa, Michael Brandsegg-Nygard, Nate Danielson<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Present Outlook (Rating: 3.3)<\/p>\n
Arguably no team surprised more last season than the Blue Jackets. But with surprise comes hesitation regarding what\u2019s real and what isn\u2019t. The team\u2019s forward core will have to prove what they did last season can be sustained and built upon.<\/p>\n
At the very least, Zach Werenski\u2019s rise to superstardom looks legit. Everyone surveyed agreed that if he wasn\u2019t already among the league\u2019s five best defensemen going into next season, he was certainly in the conversation for it. He\u2019s blossomed into a serious franchise piece, something the Blue Jackets have not had for a long time.<\/p>\n
That alone doesn\u2019t make the Blue Jackets a likely playoff team, but it is a great place to start. Where the rest fall in line behind Werenski will dictate how high Columbus can climb in 2025-26.<\/p>\n
Future Outlook (Rating: 9.4)<\/p>\n
The Blue Jackets have a first-line center in Adam Fantilli, a high-skill potential first-line winger in Kent Johnson, a No. 1 D in Werenski who still has some staying power, and two defensemen in Denton Mateychuk and Jackson Smith who could fall in really nicely behind him and eventually take over the reins. In a best-case outcome, Mateychuk is Josh Morrissey and Smith is Thomas Harley. If one of Jet Greaves or Pyotr Andreyanov then becomes an upper-half starter, suddenly you\u2019ve got a lot of the ingredients you need. <\/p>\n
Cayden Lindstrom could be the ceiling-setter for the team, though. If he hits, he\u2019s a premium second-line version of what you have in Fantilli on the first line and you\u2019ve got an envied 1-2 punch with size, skill and power down the middle.\n<\/p>\n
The Blue Jackets need their young pieces to elevate into upper-echelon versions of themselves in the league, and then use that exciting young group to lure talent to the market.<\/p>\n
Their most unique strength might be their young goaltending depth, though. If Greaves can play like he did last year across a starter\u2019s workload, he\u2019ll get them to Andreyanov, who they think has a chance to be Russia\u2019s next Sorokin\/Shesterkin. Evan Gardner and Sergei Ivanov are legit young goalie prospects who were in the Prospect Tiers conversation. That could be their differentiator as an organization moving forward. <\/p>\n
As the league struggles to find consistently good goaltending, Columbus might have a wave of strong goaltending to fall back on. Maybe it\u2019s a Rangers-like path to contention. The Rangers haven\u2019t gotten over the hump but if Fantilli can be their Artemi Panarin and they get stud goaltending, maybe that puts them in contention if they develop some of the rest of their high-end young players better than the Rangers did Kaapo Kakko and Vitali Kravtsov.<\/p>\n
Tier 2: Zach Werenski<\/p>\n
Tier 4: Kirill Marchenko<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Sean Monahan, Adam Fantilli<\/p>\n
Tier 2: Adam Fantilli, Zach Werenski<\/p>\n
Tier 3: Kent Johnson, Denton Meteychuk, Cayden Lindstrom<\/p>\n
Tier 4: Jet Greaves, Pyotr Andreyanov, Kirill Marchenko<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Jackson Smith, Cole Sillinger<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Present Outlook (Rating: 3.3)<\/p>\n
Everyone is excited about Utah going into next season, but this exercise should help temper expectations. The Mammoth still need a lot to go right for them this upcoming year to make the playoff leap.<\/p>\n
All four of Utah\u2019s representatives within the top 150 have franchise upside, but none are there yet. Only Clayton Keller is even close. It will take a breakout (or two) for Utah to become a serious player this season and many panelists suggested Logan Cooley could be that guy. We just need to see it happen first.<\/p>\n
That, or someone off the list like JJ Peterka needs to join the current four.<\/p>\n
Future Outlook (Rating: 8.6)<\/p>\n
There are eight Mammoth players in the Prospect Tiers and the beauty of their group is that it has a ton of variety. Cooley and Caleb Desnoyers line up as their top two centers of the future with two completely different profiles. Dylan Guenther and Tij Iginla profile as two top-six wingers, with the former looking like a first-liner. They\u2019ve got towers on the back end in Dmitri Simashev and Maveric Lamoureux, which is the way the game is going, and another up front in Daniil But. And they\u2019ve got one of the game\u2019s better goalie prospects in Michael Hrabal.<\/p>\n
The reality is that even with one of the better prospect pools in the league, the Mammoth are going to need two of Desnoyers, Guenther or Iginla to join Cooley in the franchise tier if they’re really going to put themselves into the mix with the best of the Western Conference. <\/p>\n
It sure feels like they\u2019re on a better path than they were in Arizona, though, and steady improvement around a really diverse group of young players should be around the corner.<\/p>\n
Tier 3: Clayton Keller<\/p>\n
Tier 4: Mikhail Sergachev, Dylan Guenther, Logan Cooley<\/p>\n
Tier 2: Logan Cooley<\/p>\n
Tier 3: Dylan Guenther, Caleb Desnoyers<\/p>\n
Tier 4: Mikhail Sergachev, Clayton Keller, Dmitri Simsashev, Tij Iginla<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Michael Hrabel, Daniil But, Maveric Lamoureux<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Win Later<\/p>\n
Present Outlook (Rating: 1.4)<\/p>\n
Finally, the Ducks are getting some recognition on this list. Unfortunately, it remains on the outskirts. Dostal, Carlsson and LaCombe all make their Player Tiers debuts this season, but all three reside in Tier 5. In a league where the best teams have several players in the top three tiers, a few guys at the bottom of the list won\u2019t cut it.<\/p>\n
All three are young enough to breakout, and the Ducks aren\u2019t short on off-list options to do the same. A new coach can coax stronger results, too. Until it actually happens, though, the Ducks look like a likely bottom-feeder.<\/p>\n
Future Outlook (Rating: 8.1)<\/p>\n
The Ducks have a young group of talent that all but a few teams in the league would swap theirs for, but they haven\u2019t yet shown that they can get the most out of their young talent and get better around them.<\/p>\n
That they\u2019ve already moved two top-10 picks in Jamie Drysdale and Trevor Zegras speaks to how hard it is for even top prospects to become cornerstone pieces for you at the NHL level.<\/p>\n
LaCombe is a nice success story. Gauthier\u2019s a real player already. The league believes that Leo Carlsson is going to become that cornerstone piece for them. But the league also feels that some of their other young players (McTavish, Mintyukov, Zellweger) weren\u2019t getting better last year. They have to this year. Soon they\u2019re going to have Beckett Sennecke, Tristan Luneau and Stian Solberg jostling with those guys for opportunity \u2014 of which there\u2019s only so much to go around, especially when you add every team\u2019s NHL vets into the mix.<\/p>\n
In theory, it\u2019s easy to say \u201cThe Ducks are going to take off soon.\u201d In practice, pulling it off and getting the best out of everyone while taking steps in the standings is really, really hard. You can\u2019t sit in \u201cWin Later\u201d forever, but pushing the window open is also the toughest step to take. <\/p>\n
Carlsson’s going to have to become the player everyone thinks he can. There’s no path to contention without that. But those D are going to have to form a formidable top-four, and one of Sennecke or Gauthier is also going to have to become a premier player, because it doesn’t look like McTavish will.<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Lukas Dostal, Leo Carlsson, Jackson LaCombe<\/p>\n
Tier 2: Leo Carlsson<\/p>\n
Tier 3: Roger McQueen<\/p>\n
Tier 4: Lukas Dostal, Beckett Sennecke, Cutter Gauthier, Mason McTavish, Pavel Mintyukov<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Olen Zellweger, Jackson Lacombe, Tristan Luneau, Stian Solberg<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Present Outlook (Rating: 0.8)<\/p>\n
Things are starting to take shape in San Jose, but the present still does not look pretty. Celebrini is the team\u2019s lone representative, debuting in 3B. He\u2019s already shown flashes of greatness; now the Sharks need a supporting cast to take shape around him. <\/p>\n
Smith or Eklund are the best bets to make the leap into the top 150 next year, and both were considered for this year. But even that won\u2019t be enough to be a competitive team. Based on the team\u2019s lack of strong players, another year near the bottom is extremely likely.<\/p>\n
Future Outlook (Rating: 9.5)<\/p>\n
The Sharks finish second in Future Rating to the Habs largely because Montreal has more established young talent already in the NHL. But the idea of what Celebrini, Smith and Misa could become together up front is impossible to overstate. In a best-case scenario, they might be looking at a Matthews, Marner, Nylander trio of sorts in San Jose. If it plays out that way, and Dickinson becomes a stud on the back end, and Askarov and Ravensbergen give you two starter-quality goalies in net, they’ll be in a very enviable position.<\/p>\n
Core pieces are the hardest to find, and the Sharks are one of the only teams in the league that can say they have a premium group of similarly-aged players of that level to build around.<\/p>\n
The biggest challenge when you’ve got the true high-end types in your organization is making sure you get the cap sheet machinations right. If their core young pieces all break right, they\u2019re all going to have to get paid and the margin for error at the edges of the roster in terms of spending shrinks. You have to be smart with where that dollar goes and where else you invest. They\u2019re clearly invest in Eklund as a complementary star, too.<\/p>\n
The Leafs never got the spending quite right. That\u2019ll be Mike Grier\u2019s big challenge in 2-3 years. Get ready for lots of questions about bridge deals and the like, Sharks fans.<\/p>\n
Tier 3: Macklin Celebrini<\/p>\n
Tier 1: Macklin Celebrini<\/p>\n
Tier 2: Michael Misa<\/p>\n
Tier 3: Sam Dickinson, Will Smith, Yaroslav Askarov<\/p>\n
Tier 4: William Eklund, Joshua Ravensbergen<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Yegor Chernyshov, Luca Cagnoni<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Present Outlook (Rating: 0.7)<\/p>\n
After a difficult season in Chicago, it should come as no surprise that Bedard is the only Blackhawk on the list. And even his placement in 4A isn\u2019t ideal, given the expectations that surrounded him before his NHL debut.<\/p>\n
Unless Bedard shows some franchise-worthy bona fides and takes some young Blackhawks with him for the ride, it\u2019s probably going to be another very long season in Chicago. Even then, it still might be \u2014 that\u2019s how bleak the present currently is. Only one team has a worse Present Rating.<\/p>\n
Future Outlook (Rating: 8.2)<\/p>\n
The Blackhawks have studs in three top-three picks with Bedard, Levshunov and Frondell. There are some who think Rinzel is a Levshunov-level D prospect now, too. They\u2019re probably going to add a fourth top-five pick in 2026 as well. <\/p>\n
But the consensus is also that the core group isn\u2019t quite as strong as San Jose\u2019s, and there are some who think there\u2019s a wider range of outcomes for Levshunov and Frondell. If Levshunov becomes a force in the league who can take over games, and Frondell hits the Anze Kopitar\/Aleksander Barkov comp that his biggest believers use, they\u2019re well on their way. <\/p>\n
Nazar\u2019s emergence moves the needle a if he\u2019s as good as the Blackhawks and USA Hockey think he is, too, and the addition of Spencer Knight improved the outlook in net. <\/p>\n
Not captured in Prospect Tiers are Oliver Moore, Nick Lardis, Roman Kantserov, Mason West, Vaclav Nestrasil, Ethan Del Mastro, and Co., who should give them a really layered group of complementary pieces. But those are more floor raisers than ceiling raisers. <\/p>\n
Ultimately, it still feels like where Bedard goes, the Blackhawks will go. They’ve got the makings of a really deep group of young players who will, even if Bedard doesn’t reach his ceiling, make them a good team. But if they want to recreate what they had with Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Duncan Keith and Co., Bedard has to become one of the league’s leading scorers, one of Levshunov or Rinzel really has to hit as a true No. 1, and Frondell either needs to become Bedard\u2019s running mate or they’ll have to lure one in free agency. <\/p>\n
One of those things happening isn\u2019t enough. It takes two or three. Even with all of the speed and depth in the world (which the Blackhawks shouldn’t have to worry about moving forward).<\/p>\n
Tier 1: Connor Bedard<\/p>\n
Tier 3: Artyom Levshunov, Anton Frondell, Spencer Knight<\/p>\n
Tier 4: Sam Rinzel, Frank Nazar<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Kevin Korchinski, Sacha Boisvert<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Win Now<\/p>\n
Present Outlook (Rating: 7.3)<\/p>\n
The Golden Knights are firmly in \u2018win now\u2019 mode and did the best thing a team in \u2018win now\u2019 mode could do: add a superstar. Enter Marner, who helps shift Vegas\u2019 present baseline up to 7.3. <\/p>\n
That number is probably unfair to Vegas\u2019 chances this upcoming season as one of the league\u2019s best teams. The Golden Knights are deep and a key source of their value comes from their next group of players just off this list \u2014 William Karlsson, Pavel Dorofeyev, Brayden McNabb and Adin Hill. <\/p>\n
The problem with that is that contention is generally driven from the top of the lineup. Edmonton, Dallas and Colorado are going to be a problem in that regard, and Vegas got a real taste of that during last year\u2019s playoffs against the Oilers. Vegas\u2019 Present Rating may not accurately reflect the full quality of the team, but it does signify that the team\u2019s road to contention might not be so clear-cut in the Pacific this season.<\/p>\n
Marner does help with that as he gives Vegas a much-needed franchise player with Stone seemingly in decline. But as good as an Eichel-Marner duo looks, it\u2019s no McDavid-Draisaitl. And that will always be the problem. Can Vegas\u2019 depth bridge the gap?<\/p>\n
Future Outlook (Rating: 2.2)<\/p>\n
*tap* *tap* *tap* “Is this thing on?”<\/p>\n
OK, so the Future Outlook isn\u2019t great \u2014 so what? This is Vegas we\u2019re talking about. In five years, the Golden Knights will have made some blockbuster trade or signing to mitigate the damage. While the Contention Cycle may show that Vegas\u2019 future is bleak if left unchecked, no franchise does more to keep the present as rosy as possible. This summer\u2019s Marner addition is a perfect example of that.<\/p>\n
Yes, at some point, the Golden Knights will have to pay the piper. In five years, it\u2019s unlikely either Eichel or Marner will remain franchise players. Finding the next superstars to replace them won\u2019t be easy, but again, this is Vegas we\u2019re talking about. The Golden Knights always find a way.<\/p>\n
With that being said, something probably has to be done to address the discrepancy between Vegas\u2019 high end and the other contenders in the West. Maybe Marner is enough for the team to lean on its depth advantage, which isn\u2019t captured here. But more couldn\u2019t hurt, especially with the sudden departure of Alex Pietrangelo and Stone\u2019s decline.<\/p>\n
Fighting the current becomes harder and harder as the core ages. The Golden Knights better make it worth their while.<\/p>\n
Tier 2: Jack Eichel, Mitch Marner<\/p>\n
Tier 3: Shea Theodore<\/p>\n
Tier 4: Mark Stone, Noah Hanifin<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Tomas Hertl<\/p>\n
Tier 3: Mitch Marner, Jack Eichel<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Shea Theodore, Trevor Connelly<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Present Outlook (Rating: 7.2)<\/p>\n
Arguably no team was more disappointing last year than the Rangers, going from Presidents\u2019 Trophy winners to missing the playoffs. Their placement here, despite that, signifies why: it was a complete waste of one of the league\u2019s best cores.<\/p>\n
A starting point of Shesterkin, Panarin and Fox should be impossible to mess up. The Rangers are one of just four teams with three franchise players. But the rest of the team was simply that bad to completely undermine that.<\/p>\n
The Rangers\u2019 high-end players are good enough to be a dark-horse team again. That the rest of the team isn\u2019t anywhere close, enough to drag down a strong core, is a complete failure on the part of management. With the team shifting even further into win-now mode after last season, the pressure has never been higher in New York.<\/p>\n
Future Outlook (Rating: 2.6)<\/p>\n
The Rangers’ core is getting older, with critical pieces now on the wrong side of 30 and others that aren’t far behind. <\/p>\n
Gabe Perreault is their only high-end prospect, too, and folks think he’s got a very wide range of outcomes that could land him anywhere from middle-six playmaker and power-play skill guy with some flaws to point-per-gamer who is one of the smartest offensive minds in the game. They have bubble guys for Prospect Tiers such as E.J. Emery and Brennan Othmann, but they’ve got to win yesterday. It’s either that, or their stars defy getting older. Perreault hits in a way that Kaapo Kakko and Vitali Kravtsov didn’t, and they try to keep the window open for longer than expected.<\/p>\n
There\u2019s a lot of doom and gloom surrounding the Rangers, and understandably so given how last year went. Still, it\u2019s not that difficult to squint and see a way for the Rangers to be good again. <\/p>\n
For starters, a new coach helps and Mike Sullivan is one of the game\u2019s best. He\u2019s a rising tide that should have everyone at their best. If that\u2019s led by a core of Panarin, Fox, Shesterkin \u2014 all franchise guys \u2014 the Rangers have a great starting point. A supporting core of Miller, Trocheck, Zibanejad, Lafreni\u00e8re and Gavrikov isn\u2019t bad either.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s the group after where there\u2019s trouble. Fortunately, that\u2019s the easiest part to clean up. Competent depth can take a team with the Rangers\u2019 upside very far.<\/p>\n
Then again \u2026 the Rangers don\u2019t have much cap space, nor do they have much time. Given the average age of everyone involved, the Rangers are in a time crunch. The time to clean up the team\u2019s depth was roughly five years ago and the fact that it\u2019s still a problem is frustrating, considering just how strong the team\u2019s top end has been.<\/p>\n
If some of the older stars can hang on a little longer, a pop from the team\u2019s younger support could give the team the proper runway to finally address their depth issues. <\/p>\n
The clock is ticking, but it\u2019s not at midnight yet. The Rangers need to hurry before it\u2019s too late.<\/p>\n
Tier 2: Igor Shesterkin, Adam Fox, Artemi Panarin<\/p>\n
Tier 4: J.T. Miller<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Vladislav Gavrikov, Vincent Trocheck<\/p>\n
Tier 3: Adam Fox<\/p>\n
Tier 4: Gabe Perreault, Igor Shesterkin<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Artemi Panarin, Scott Morrow<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Present Outlook (Rating: 7.1)<\/p>\n
The additions of Gabriel Vilardi and Dylan Samberg to this year\u2019s tiers, plus returns to form from Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele, were enough to offset the loss of Nikolaj Ehlers. As long as Connor Hellebuyck and Josh Morrissey are still playing at a franchise level, the Jets will continue to be a quality team next season.<\/p>\n
At some point a drop-off will come considering the age of everyone in the team\u2019s core. That drop-off, though, looks unlikely to happen next season. Winnipeg still looks good. Great, however, is up for debate.<\/p>\n
Future Outlook (Rating: 1.4)<\/p>\n
Connor Hellebuyck and Mark Scheifele will both turn 33 this season, and while the Jets should still be a contender in the West in the near term, Hellebuyck\u2019s not going to be in the Hart or Vezina conversation forever and the Jets don\u2019t have prospects of their caliber who will take over like, say, Wyatt Johnston and Thomas Harley have for Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin in Dallas. <\/p>\n
Brayden Yager, Brad Lambert and Elias Salomonsson could all end up in Tier 5 in time, but much higher than that would be a surprise for each. Cole Perfetti could take a step and end up in Tier 5 or maybe even Tier 4 if everything breaks right. But they\u2019re going to have a tough time turning over a Tier 2-3 guy to replace the ones they have.<\/p>\n
Of all the league\u2019s contenders, the Jets look to be in the most precarious position. They have the worst Future Rating of the upper-half teams and rank 10th in Present Rating. The future is grim and the present still doesn\u2019t look good enough.<\/p>\n
That puts the Jets at a crossroads given the big Connor extension decision facing them at the end of this season. Go all-in or reset.<\/p>\n
With the way Hellebuyck, Morrissey and Scheifele have been playing, a reset is not a realistic option. Not after the team already extended Hellebuyck and Scheifele to be Jets for life. That means it\u2019s time to go all-in. The future is already going to be painful \u2014 might as well actually make the pain worthwhile. <\/p>\n
Flags fly forever and standing pat won\u2019t get the Jets there. It\u2019s going to take dramatic action to get the Jets over the hump.<\/p>\n
Tier 2: Connor Hellebuyck, Josh Morrissey<\/p>\n
Tier 3: Kyle Connor<\/p>\n
Tier 4: Mark Scheifele<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Gabriel Vilardi, Dylan Samberg<\/p>\n
Tier 3: Josh Morrissey<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Kyle Connor, Connor Hellebuyck<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Present Outlook (Rating: 5.7)<\/p>\n
Look around the Contention Cycle and for the most part it really does act like one. Almost every team moved clockwise as expected. There are exceptions to the rule, though, and unsurprisingly the Capitals are one of them. This time last year, they were right there in the \u201cWindow Closed\u201d quadrant, only to finish with 111 points \u2014 the second-best mark in the league. Once again, the Capitals beat the odds. <\/p>\n
That is, until the playoffs happened and the team folded the second a real team showed up. And that\u2019s where we land now. The Capitals swam against the current and turned back the clock to \u201cwin now\u201d mode, taking the biggest leap in Present Rating. But that leap still places Washington behind 11 other teams who all have more top-end talent. Until that\u2019s solved, the Capitals aren\u2019t a contender.<\/p>\n
This exercise is also not purely based on analytics either. It\u2019s one vetted extensively by many inside the game who all came to a similar conclusion: utter disbelief that the Capitals even had 111 points last season.<\/p>\n
While the Capitals have way more representation this season in the top 150 after such a strong season, none of their seven players were placed in the top three tiers. It\u2019s very difficult to contend under those circumstances and while depth will probably get them a solid regular-season record, the playoffs are a different ball game.<\/p>\n
The other concern is repeatability. There\u2019s potential for some players \u2014 Tom Wilson, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Aliaksei Protas, Logan Thompson \u2014 to move up the ranks and increase Washington\u2019s Present Rating if they repeat last season\u2019s excellence. It\u2019s just not something many inside hockey are betting on.<\/p>\n
Future Outlook (Rating: 1.7)<\/p>\n
Ryan Leonard and the big Protas brothers (plural) are going to be important parts of the fold. Cole Hutson and Andrew Cristall look like really promising small skill types to complement them. And Lynden Lakovic has the tools to become a talented top-nine winger and maybe more. <\/p>\n
The Caps have a good pool, there’s no question. But a good pool is still a bit of a hope and a prayer when it\u2019s missing that capital-G Great prospect from the very top of the draft. Even if all of those players hit and Connor McMichael takes another step, none of their very good young players are going to fill the shoes left behind by Alexander Ovechkin and John Carlson when they stroll off into the sunset. There\u2019s more work to be done if they want the next chapter to follow the success of this one.<\/p>\n
The Capitals pulled off one of the most impressive retools last summer, completely shifting their present trajectory. But it still wasn\u2019t enough to make the team an actual Cup contender, no matter how loudly the fan base screamed about their 111 regular-season points.<\/p>\n
Depth can only take a team so far. It\u2019s hard to go deep when your best player is Wilson. As great as he was last season, he\u2019s not a top-50 player. It didn\u2019t cut it against Carolina with two franchise players, and it definitely wouldn\u2019t have cut it against Florida with three. Especially when both teams can match Washington\u2019s depth.<\/p>\n
Can the Protas brothers be top-50 players? What about Leonard or Cristall? Can the other Hutson match his brother in Montreal? Across the board, the answer is \u201cprobably not.\u201d And that\u2019s the problem.<\/p>\n
The Capitals have a high floor because of their depth. Their savvy secured them undervalued players like Dubois, Thompson and Dylan Strome capable of raising the team\u2019s baseline. But getting a player who can raise the ceiling will be far more difficult.<\/p>\n
Washington can keep fighting the current and hope to get a franchise player (or two) through means other than at the top of the draft. A blockbuster trade or signing would go a long way to extending the team\u2019s \u2018win now\u2019 window, but those aren\u2019t exactly easy to come by. By the time the opportunity is even available to them, the Capitals might get swept up in the undertow. The best path to contention might be the long way.<\/p>\n
Tier 4: Tom Wilson, John Carlson<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Dylan Strome, Alex Ovechkin, Aliaksei Protas, Logan Thompson<\/p>\n
Tier 4: Ryan Leonard, Ilya Protas, Cole Hutson, Andrew Cristall<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Lynden Lakovic, Aliaksei Protas<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Limited Ceiling<\/p>\n
Present Outlook (Rating: 5.3)<\/p>\n
The next step is right there for the taking in Ottawa and it happens when one (or preferably two) of Jake Sanderson, Tim St\u00fctzle and Brady Tkachuk break through and establish themselves as franchise players. The Senators currently have a spot in no man\u2019s land, but that\u2019s partly because their three best players reside in 3A \u2014 rather than Tier 2 or higher. Every team ahead of Ottawa has at least two franchise players. <\/p>\n
That\u2019s the difference between first-round fodder and a team that can actually make some noise. The Senators are still the former until proven otherwise.<\/p>\n
The one concern is whether or not they\u2019re on a more accelerated timeline than the ages of their three best players might suggest. A major reason they were finally able to make the playoffs last year was Linus Ullmark’s play and at 32, it\u2019s no guarantee how long he stays an above-average starter worthy of top 150 status.<\/p>\n
The Senators could also use some help beyond their big three. Establishing a support core would go a long way toward the team\u2019s goals of contention.<\/p>\n
Future Outlook (Rating: 3.9)<\/p>\n
St\u00fctzle, Sanderson and Tkachuk are one of the better 25-and-under trios in the league. But the Sens are going to need St\u00fctzle to go from point-per-game and into the truly elite stratosphere, and for Sanderson to become a Norris-caliber D. There are camps that think that’s coming, and it may well happen. If it doesn’t, Carter Yakemchuk, Logan Hensler and co. aren’t going to be enough to elevate them. The best-case scenario for Yakemchuk is a Brent Burns comp, but there isn’t a lot of belief out there in him reaching that. Shane Pinto developing into a Tier 4\/5 guy consistently would be big, too. Their pool thins out quickly though.<\/p>\n
Ottawa\u2019s entire future depends on how high St\u00fctzle, Sanderson and Tkachuk can climb. But while that\u2019s the primary concern, it\u2019s not the only one.<\/p>\n
All three jumping from 3A to become franchise players would be a great starting point and the higher the better. The closer each player gets to Tier 1, the higher Ottawa\u2019s ceiling becomes. Based on each player\u2019s potential trajectory based on comparable players, though, only St\u00fctzle looks likely to reach the coveted franchise tier \u2014 and only as a 2C player. That\u2019s part of the reason Ottawa is once again in no man\u2019s land despite a playoff berth last season.<\/p>\n
But even if Sanderson and Tkachuk are both bumped up \u2014 deservedly so, if you ask our panel of NHL insiders \u2014 the Senators still fall well short of an open window both now and in the future. The reason for that is the complete lack of a support core beyond the team\u2019s top three players. Ullmark (32) and Thomas Chabot (28) help now, Yakemchuk (19) and Hensler (18) will likely help later. But that seriously pales to the contenders now and in the future.<\/p>\n
Look at what Florida and Tampa Bay have after their top three going into next season. Look at the future depth Montreal and San Jose are building. What Ottawa has just doesn\u2019t compare.<\/p>\n
The key to getting the most of Ottawa\u2019s current era will be building a supporting cast. A legit No. 3 forward would be huge and it\u2019s possible Drake Batherson, Dylan Cozens or Shane Pinto can be that. Those three joining the top 150 would also help. But if it\u2019s not them \u2014 and the odds aren\u2019t in their favor \u2014 the Senators will need to look externally for more help. <\/p>\n
Tier 3: Jake Sanderson, Tim St\u00fctzle, Brady Tkachuk<\/p>\n
Tier 4: Linus Ullmark<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Thomas Chabot<\/p>\n
Tier 2: Tim St\u00fctzle<\/p>\n
Tier 3: Jake Sanderson, Brady Tkachuk<\/p>\n
Tier 4: Carter Yakemchuk<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Logan Hensler<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Present Outlook (Rating: 5.1)<\/p>\n
Perhaps we were a bit overzealous with the Wild last season. They\u2019re good, but having them on the cusp of greatness was probably pushing it. Going into 2025-26 the Minnesota Wild are right where they belong.<\/p>\n
Part of the drop is that the Wild had more representation last season and no one has stepped up to fill the gaps. With Jared Spurgeon and Jonas Brodin both falling off the top 150 this season due to age-related decline, the Wild need their next wave to take charge to re-establish a proper support core. (To their credit, there was some support to include Filip Gustavsson).<\/p>\n
The Wild also need Matt Boldy (or Brock Faber) to step up and show they\u2019re franchise players. The top contenders all have at least two \u2014 it can\u2019t just be Kaprizov.<\/p>\n
There\u2019s room for the Wild to become a proper contender and get back to the exciting level we expected to start last season. But the last year has created some questions about the team\u2019s ceiling that need to be addressed.<\/p>\n
Future Outlook (Rating: 6.4)<\/p>\n
The Wild have done a nice job building out a young group of players and prospects without drafting at the very top. <\/p>\n
Both Boldy and Zeev Buium were drafted No. 12 overall and should go top-10 in a do-over when their careers are done. Having Faber locked in with term is huge. Danila Yurov and Liam Ohgren (who was one of the final cuts for Prospect Tiers) look like they\u2019ll be solid players for late-firsts.<\/p>\n
Jesper Wallstedt and Marco Rossi feel like the wild-cards. If the former can return to form this season and reclaim his status as one of the league\u2019s top goalie prospects, that\u2019ll go a long way. But the latter needs probably needs to take a step and play his way into Player Tiers, too. If neither of those things happen, there could end up being a lot of pressure on Buium to become a top-end D in the league.<\/p>\n
The path looks like it has to run through re-signing Kaprizov, Boldy elevating from the all-star tier into the franchise tier, and one of Faber or Buium joining him.<\/p>\n
If Kaprizov re-signs and only one of the other two things happen, the Wild are well-positioned to be a consistent playoff team for a long time. But they probably need everything to break right to be more than that, or a playoff run where a goalie gets hot (whether that\u2019s Filip Gustavsson now or maybe Wallstedt down the line) and they exceed expectations.<\/p>\n
Tier 1: Kirill Kaprizov<\/p>\n
Tier 3: Matt Boldy<\/p>\n
Tier 4: Joel Eriksson Ek, Brock Faber<\/p>\n
Tier 2: Kirill Kaprizov<\/p>\n
Tier 3: Matt Boldy, Zeev Buium<\/p>\n
Tier 4: Brock Faber<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Jesper Wallstedt, Danila Yurov, David Jiricek<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Present Outlook (Rating: 4.6)<\/p>\n
Since Jim Montgomery took over as head coach, the Blues have become one of the league\u2019s most fascinating teams. They\u2019ve become actually good \u2014 but what exactly is their ceiling?<\/p>\n
That\u2019s the big question the team\u2019s subpar Present Rating suggests lies underneath the surface of last year\u2019s success. The Blues have six players on the Player Tiers, but five of them fall in 4C or lower. Robert Thomas is the lone player above that, but having the team\u2019s best player in 3A isn\u2019t exactly a ringing endorsement.<\/p>\n
The Blues have depth that can get them to the playoffs with a few players that are in the conversation from 150-200. It\u2019s also possible some of these players step up further if they prove they can keep up what they showed last year under Montgomery.<\/p>\n
But there\u2019s a big difference between being good enough to make the playoffs and good enough to go deep within them. Right now, the Blues look like a team closer to the former. But their trajectory from last year after absolutely nailing the dual offer sheets could mean they continue to surprise.<\/p>\n
Future Outlook (Rating: 5.1)<\/p>\n
In Dalibor Dvorsky, Dylan Holloway, Philip Broberg, Jimmy Snuggerud, Justin Carbonneau and Logan Mailloux, the Blues have amassed a deep group of young talent. <\/p>\n
The problem they face is that most view each of those players\u2019 ceilings as a contending team\u2019s third-best or fourth-best forward, or third-best or fourth-best D. Top-of-the-lineup players? Yes. True No. 1 centers, or No. 1 wingers, or No. 1 D? Maybe on a playoff team if they get there with their depth. Not on a true contender in recent years other than, well, the 2019 Blues.<\/p>\n
When it comes to the Blues, it\u2019s important to take a lot of this with a grain of salt. The team has only played one partial season under Montgomery and if the next season goes similarly, there\u2019s a chance a lot of these player valuations look much better this time next year.<\/p>\n
Repeating that won\u2019t be easy though and there\u2019s a reason the team struggled before Montgomery got there. Part of it is a lack of true franchise talent. Thomas is close, but that\u2019s it. And while the Blues have a lot of tantalizing prospects in the system, it would take a lot for them to jump to that level. What is already a problem now will likely only continue to be a problem later \u2014 and it doesn\u2019t help that Thomas and Kyrou aren\u2019t young anymore. The Blues are building a fantastic supporting cast, but don\u2019t have the stars worth supporting.<\/p>\n
That leaves the Blues in no man\u2019s land: good enough to be in the playoff mix for the next five years, but probably not great enough to be a threat to go deep. Not unless a few players take major leaps. That also means the Blues also aren\u2019t quite bad enough to obtain a potential franchise player at the draft either.<\/p>\n
So what\u2019s the best path forward? It\u2019s probably staying the course: growing under Montgomery and looking for a ceiling-raiser via other avenues. Whether it\u2019s trade, free agency or another offer sheet, the Blues need to go big-game hunting. It\u2019s impossible not to love how the Blues played last year, but to get back to contention, they still need more.<\/p>\n
Tier 3: Robert Thomas<\/p>\n
Tier 4: Jordan Kyrou, Colton Parayko<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Pavel Buchnevich, Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway<\/p>\n
Tier 4: Robert Thomas, Jimmy Snuggerud, Justin Carbonneau<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Dalibor Dvorsky, Dylan Holloway, Philip Broberg, Colton Parayko, Logan Mailloux, Jordan Kyrou<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Present Outlook (Rating: 3.9)<\/p>\n
With a starting point of David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy and Jeremy Swayman, it should be impossible to fail. The Bruins found a way, though. <\/p>\n
Pastrnak started slow. McAvoy dealt with injuries and struggled offensively by his usual standards. And Swayman had a season from hell after missing training camp waiting for a new contract. It\u2019s a great example of what makes having a support core so important \u2014 they can pick up the slack if things go awry. The Bruins didn\u2019t, and crumbled.<\/p>\n
The Bruins enter 2025-26 with just those three players in the top 150, with McAvoy and Swayman\u2019s standings lowered. With both players dropping in value, and no one behind them, Boston\u2019s high end probably isn\u2019t good enough to be a playoff team next season. Unless McAvoy and Swayman return to form, and someone steps up beyond these three, the Bruins are likely going to be on the outside looking in.<\/p>\n
And that\u2019s a damning indictment given what the roster looks like beyond them. If the team\u2019s top three players alone aren\u2019t good enough, the Bruins are likely in trouble.<\/p>\n
Future Outlook (Rating: 4.4)<\/p>\n
The Bruins’ cupboards, after years of empty shelves, finally have a few items stocked. And in James Hagens, one of them is hard to find. Their pool still really thins out after Hagens. William Moore, Will Zellers and Dean Letourneau are interesting, but they remain just that. Mason Lohrei has the tools to potentially become a Tier 5 guy, but his defensive results are still a long way away. Fraser Minten\u2019s ceiling is too low to ever get there. The only player other than Hagens that was close to making Prospect Tiers was Matt Poitras, who scouts want to see take a step this season with more opportunity.<\/p>\n
Ultimately, as the Bruins\u2019 pool now stands, a lot rests on Hagens turning into a true first-line center and the No. 1 pick-worthy talent he was once viewed as.<\/p>\n
If they can\u2019t hit reset quickly around their big three, so to speak, the Bruins may equally quickly discover a proper rebuild is the only real path forward.<\/p>\n
Those decisions are the hardest to make, especially when those players mean as much to your organization as Pastrnak and McAvoy mean and have meant to the Bruins, but sometimes that\u2019s what has to be done.<\/p>\n
They don\u2019t have forever to figure it out either. Pastrnak wil turn 30 in May. <\/p>\n
Tier 1: David Pastrnak<\/p>\n
Tier 3: Charlie McAvoy<\/p>\n
Tier 4: Jeremy Swayman<\/p>\n
Tier 2: David Pastrnak<\/p>\n
Tier 3: James Hagens<\/p>\n
Tier 4: Charlie McAvoy, Jeremy Swayman<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Rebuilding<\/p>\n
Present Outlook (Rating: 2.5)<\/p>\n
The dam finally broke last year on Long Island. After years of staying competitive with an aging roster, everything fell apart on the ice.<\/p>\n
With better health, this upcoming season should be a lot better for the Islanders \u2014 but the team is still severely lacking when it comes to high-end talent. A down season from Ilya Sorokin pushed him out of the franchise tier, Mathew Barzal struggled to score at a Tier 3 rate and the team moved Noah Dobson for futures. With Bo Horvat in 4C, that leaves the Islanders with just three players in the top 150, all of whom fall on the lower end of the list.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s probably for the best though, given the organizational shift after a fortunate lottery win. The Islanders have finally accepted that the team\u2019s core wasn\u2019t good enough to go all the way. Going into 2025-26, they\u2019re well-situated to make the best of that.<\/p>\n
Future Outlook (Rating: 3)<\/p>\n
The Islanders\u2019 priorities have clearly shifted under Mathieu Darche and while a little luck landed them Matthew Schaefer, they\u2019ve done really well to very quickly surround him with a pool that includes four other first-round picks in Victor Eklund, Cole Eiserman, Kashawn Aitcheson and Calum Ritchie. <\/p>\n
In Schaefer, the most common projection has always been Miro Heiskanen \u2014 and maybe more. That\u2019s a game-changer. Scouts expect each of Eklund, Ritchie and Aitcheson to become a really good winger, center and D for them around Schaefer as well. <\/p>\n
Eiserman\u2019s the wild-card with a wide range of outcomes and opinions. If he becomes an Alex DeBrincat type, that adds a really valuable power-play piece at minimum. If he busts like Oliver Wahlstrom and Kieffer Bellows did, that\u2019ll hurt but they can now sustain it better than they could have before the 2025 draft.<\/p>\n
The page has turned and the Isles should commit to adding more youth. Don\u2019t get satisfied with the work you’ve done in the last year or so to frame it out. Keep building.<\/p>\n
That’s their best path forward. Schaefer and co. will make them more compelling fairly quickly, but they’ve still got work to do.<\/p>\n
Tier 3: Ilya Sorokin<\/p>\n
Tier 4: Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat<\/p>\n
Tier 2: Matthew Schaefer<\/p>\n
Tier 4: Victor Eklund, Cole Eiserman<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Mathew Barzal, Kashawn Aitcheson, Calum Ritchie<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Present Outlook (Rating: 2)<\/p>\n
One thing became clear during this exercise: those inside hockey have really soured on Buffalo. With how awful the Sabres have been for over a decade, their players are going to have to actually prove it before being anointed.<\/p>\n
Rasmus Dahlin and Tage Thompson both earned respectful placement within the tiers, but that was it. And having just two players puts Buffalo squarely in rebuilding territory. Still. After all these years. By Present Rating, the Sabres land ahead of just six other teams.<\/p>\n
Is it possible that we\u2019re being too harsh on Buffalo here? As bad as the Sabres have been, seventh from the bottom is probably a bit too far and perhaps that\u2019s one reason to suggest at least one other Sabre \u2014 Alex Tuch or Owen Power maybe \u2014 should\u2019ve made the cut.<\/p>\n
Or perhaps it\u2019s a testament that what the team has built and is in the process of building just isn\u2019t good enough. That the Sabres only have two top 150 players at this stage of the rebuild speaks volumes about the current bleakness.<\/p>\n
This season will be all about proving everyone wrong and that means two or three Sabres have to play themselves onto the top 150. Good luck.<\/p>\n
Future Outlook (Rating: 5.4)<\/p>\n
Another one of the themes of this project has been that amateur scouts still have more time for Power than those on the pro side seem to. The pro guys want to see him take charge and put his big-boy pants on. And while the amateur guys have always wanted him to have more FU in his game too, they also see a 22-year-old who has played 25 minutes a night in the league for three seasons already and know how rare that is.<\/p>\n
The league has softened on the Sabres\u2019 pool, though. Radim Mrtka should give them another top-four stud with length to add to Dahlin and Power and give them a unique trio. But there are skeptics about Zach Benson and Konsta Helenius, and while everyone respects the hell out of Noah Ostlund\u2019s game there are upside questions there as well.<\/p>\n
Jiri Kulich is the interesting one, because there are some who think he is regular PP1 duty away from cranking that one-timer of his and popping more offensively. He also looks like a center after many thought he\u2019d be a winger, which matters.<\/p>\n
The big question folks have about the Sabres is whether they\u2019ve got a No. 1 forward on a contending team in their group, and how they go about finding that with the challenges they have bringing players in and keeping them.<\/p>\n
They\u2019ve got a ton of good NHL forwards and more on the way who should be solid contributors, but Thompson doesn\u2019t look like a true top dog and neither do Kulich, Benson, Helenius, Quinn and co. And while losing a player like JJ Peterka hurts, he wasn\u2019t going to be that either and so it\u2019s not worth losing too much sleep over.<\/p>\n
They need Power to take a step in his mentality more than his skill, and they need Devon Levi to become the Dustin Wolf type some thought he could become but fewer and fewer now believe in. But even if that happens and their other young players come along nicely, they may still be searching for that superstar forward. And in the meantime, pressure mounts.<\/p>\n
Tier 2: Rasmus Dahlin<\/p>\n
Tier 3: Tage Thompson<\/p>\n
Tier 2: Rasmus Dahlin<\/p>\n
Tier 3: Owen Power<\/p>\n
Tier 4: Radim Mrtka, Zach Benson, Jiri Kulich<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Tage Thompson, Konsta Helenius, Noah Ostlund<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Present Outlook (Rating: 1.9)<\/p>\n
The worst thing the Flames could do is look at last year\u2019s standings and say, \u201cThis is who we are, we\u2019re right there.\u201d They absolutely are not.<\/p>\n
Dustin Wolf did a lot to mask just how rough the rest of the team looked and the team\u2019s other representatives speak to that. MacKenzie Weegar joins Wolf in Tier 4 while Nazem Kadri, in 5A, is the only other Flame. True playoff teams have significantly more to work with at the top of the lineup. Weegar and Kadri both being over 30, where a drop-off is more likely, also plays a role.<\/p>\n
Without much of any star power throughout the lineup, the Flames will again go as far as Wolf takes them. And that could be an issue when it comes to a future path to contention.<\/p>\n
Future Outlook (Rating: 2.8)<\/p>\n
Zayne Parekh and Wolf are top young players at their positions and Matthew Coronato and Cole Reschny should be top-six pieces for the Flames for a long time.<\/p>\n
Parekh absolutely has to hit and become an Erik Karlsson-level player (no pressure) because if he doesn\u2019t and his critics are right and he just becomes a Tyson Barrie-level talent who gives up just as much defensively as he creates offensively, suddenly you\u2019ve still got a lot of holes. I\u2019m very confident he\u2019s going to end up closer to the former than the latter, though.<\/p>\n
They need to add a premium prospect up front in the Parekh\/Wolf tier, though. I think Reschny can become a Seth Jarvis, and we already know what Coronato is. That\u2019s not nearly enough when your NHL core up front is already aging out. The Flames have a solid pool behind those four but no others that rise to their level.<\/p>\n
Lean into scorched earth, sell folks on the youth and your shiny new building, and don’t hesitate when the road gets bumpy, should probably be the advice. Patch work while trying to get younger is the easier path to take, but it often ends up back where you started trying to scrape and claw into the playoffs. The longer you wait to really pull the trigger, the harder it gets to move your vets, too.<\/p>\n
Tier 4: MacKenzie Weegar, Dustin Wolf<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Nazem Kadri<\/p>\n
Tier 2: Dustin Wolf<\/p>\n
Tier 3: Zayne Parekh<\/p>\n
Tier 4: Matt Coronato, Cole Reschny<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Rebuild Time<\/p>\n
Present Outlook (Rating: 4.3)<\/p>\n
One of the more controversial aspects of last year\u2019s version of this exercise was the suggestion that Vancouver\u2019s window was already in the midst of closing. One year later that proclamation already looks utterly prophetic with Vancouver\u2019s Present Rating dropping from dark-horse-worthy to not even playoff-caliber. The Canucks experienced one of the league\u2019s sharpest drops in that regard.<\/p>\n
A lot of misfortunes had to occur in order for that to happen so quickly. Elias Pettersson went from franchise star to \u2018who even knows anymore.\u2019 J.T. Miller was traded after a very public spat with Pettersson. Thatcher Demko barely played, and when he did he struggled. Brock Boeser played himself off the list entirely. All of a sudden, Vancouver\u2019s elite core looks anything but, putting the franchise at a crossroads.<\/p>\n
That leaves us with the present outlook. Quinn Hughes is still here (for now) and jumped up to 1B after being the only Canuck to prove 2023-24 was no fluke. As long as he\u2019s still around, the Canucks have hope with a bona fide top-10 player. It\u2019s the rest that have to fall in line. Pettersson needs to be franchise-worthy. Demko needs to be Vezina-worthy. And someone other than those two (and Conor Garland) needs to show they\u2019re a core piece worthy of top-150 inclusion.<\/p>\n
Otherwise, Canucks fans will be spending another stretch in mid-ville.<\/p>\n
Future Outlook (Rating: 2.3)<\/p>\n
In a fantasy world where all of Braeden Cootes, Jonathan Lekkerimaki and Tom Willander meet expectations, the Canucks have a two-way 2C, a top-six winger and 30-goal guy, and a top-four defenseman coming. Elias Pettersson (the other one) looks like a solid complementary young D, too, and was considered for a Tier 5C projection. But what if Cootes is a 3C, and Lekkerimaki is a flawed and streaky middle-six winger, and Willander becomes more of a No. 4-5 than a No. 2-3? Because all of those things are also very possible as outcomes in reality.<\/p>\n
The top priority for the Canucks is keeping Hughes at all costs. Without him there is no present and definitely no future. <\/p>\n
But the Canucks also need more around Hughes. That might be as simple as returns to form from Pettersson and Demko, but even beyond them the Canucks lack a capable support core. Even if Hughes, Pettersson and Demko end up as Vancouver\u2019s version of Kucherov, Hedman and Vasilevskiy, the Canucks would still be missing a Point, Hagel, Guentzel, Cirelli and McDonagh. If that\u2019s the difference, the Canucks have their work cut out for them.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s part of the reason the window already felt like it was closing last year when there were questions regarding a post-Miller succession plan. The hole he leaves at the top of the team\u2019s lineup is substantial and won\u2019t be easy to fill. Vancouver has some prospects like Lekkerimaki, Willander and Cootes, but none have even Tier 4 upside according to scouts at the moment.<\/p>\n
Everything hinges on what happens with Hughes. If he leaves, it\u2019s all moot anyways and the team will be forced to rebuild. If he stays, the Canucks need to do everything they can to not waste him. Hughes and Pettersson aren\u2019t young anymore.<\/p>\n
Tier 1: Quinn Hughes<\/p>\n
Tier 3: Elias Pettersson<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Thatcher Demko, Conor Garland<\/p>\n
Tier 2: Quinn Hughes<\/p>\n
Tier 4: Elias Pettersson<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Jonathan Lekkerimaki, Tom Willander, Braeden Cootes<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Present Outlook (Rating: 4.2)<\/p>\n
The Kings are a perfect example of what happens when a team cuts corners through the Contention Cycle. What remains is a team that\u2019s been first round fodder for four-straight seasons at the hands of a team with actual high-end talent. That looks unlikely to change this season.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s true that this exercise will underrate the full scope of Los Angeles\u2019 ability. The Kings are a likely playoff team for what they\u2019ve built outside their top guys. They\u2019re deep and that matters.<\/p>\n
When it comes to going the distance, though, they lag way behind the best of the West. As good as Adrian Kempe has become as a 4A player, it\u2019s almost impossible to contend when a team\u2019s best player is in Tier 4.<\/p>\n
If he takes a leap to Tier 3 and Quinton Byfield joins him, maybe the conversation around the Kings changes. For now, it\u2019s already not good enough and the relative age of everyone except for Byfield adds a lot of concern for the team\u2019s current trajectory.<\/p>\n
Future Outlook (Rating: 0.8)<\/p>\n
The Kings have three legitimate young players in Byfield (a clear top-six center and potential first-liner), Brandt Clarke (a unique but complicated player with high-end offensive upside and a defensive game that is going to have to continue to prove itself to naysayers), and Liam Greentree (who looks like a top-nine winger who can play both sides but is still going to have to show he can be more than that). <\/p>\n
Not captured here is also Hampton Slukynsky and Carter George, two of the final cuts in net for Prospect Tiers. Scouts expect one of them will develop into the Kings\u2019 goalie of the future.<\/p>\n
But their once-glossy future outlook hasn\u2019t produced a deep playoff run and you have to wonder, now that it looks like this team won\u2019t win in the present, whether the Brock Faber for Kevin Fiala deal was worth it. Because boy could they use a Faber alongside Clarke to build around right about now.<\/p>\n
What happens in five years when Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty retire, and Kempe and Fiala are in their early 30s? The Kings will likely be left with a core of Byfield, Clarke and Greentree representing them in the top 150 \u2014 one player in each of Tier 3, 4 and 5. Suffice to say, it\u2019s not good enough.<\/p>\n
If the Stars are the best example of how to bridge eras, the Kings are a necessary lesson in how it can go awry. Without much high-end talent around Byfield and Clarke, everything depends on just how high their ceilings are. The Kings need both to be Tier 2 players and that looks like an aggressive forecast based on what they\u2019ve shown to date. Not impossible, but unlikely.<\/p>\n
The Kings will need to add to that core and that\u2019s easier said than done as a perennial playoff team. Maybe it means hitting home runs on lower picks. Maybe it means a blockbuster trade or a big signing. Whatever it is, the Kings need more and they\u2019re not exactly in a position to get it.<\/p>\n
Something has to give here because the run of first-round futility doesn\u2019t look like it has an end in sight, not when the West is loaded with the exact kind of high-end talent the Kings are missing. At some point, this team needs to shift gears \u2014 something that might just happen naturally once Kopitar and Doughty move on.<\/p>\n
Los Angeles\u2019 placement on the chart may feel unfair and it\u2019s possible the Kings can win with a depth approach. But if the path to contention goes through the players at top of the league, the Kings are kind of stuck right now without one. <\/p>\n
A quick retool could work and might be the best path forward, but taking a shortcut didn\u2019t work so well the last time.<\/p>\n
Tier 4: Adrian Kempe, Quinton Byfield<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Kevin Fiala, Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar, Mikey Anderson<\/p>\n
Tier 3: Quinton Byfield<\/p>\n
Tier 4: Brandt Clarke<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Liam Greentree<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Window Closed<\/p>\n
Present Outlook (Rating: 2.5)<\/p>\n
The Predators can be a tough read because their best players tend to oscillate between good and bad seasons. The team\u2019s three stars \u2014 Roman Josi, Filip Forsberg and Juuse Saros \u2014 are all coming off significant down years and a bounce-back isn\u2019t out of the question. A return to form for all three (and some others from the team\u2019s supporting cast) could allow the Predators to fight the current back toward the \u201cwin-now\u201d side of the ledger.<\/p>\n
Given the ages of Josi (35), Forsberg (31) and Saros (30), though, the chances of that just don\u2019t feel likely. What we saw last year could just be the new normal for all three: the beginning of the end. The fall-off from everyone around them adds an exclamation point to that. No team’s Present Rating dropped more than Nashville’s, and the Predators will likely land at the bottom of the standings again next season.<\/p>\n
Sure, a brief bounce-back is possible. But Nashville\u2019s current place and direction means the Predators would only be momentarily preventing the inevitable. Should a miraculous first-round exit in 2025-26 before dropping off again in 2026-27 be the goal? <\/p>\n
With a limited ceiling even in a best-case scenario, it\u2019s time to rip the band-aid off and accept reality. It\u2019s over. The window is closed.<\/p>\n
Future Outlook (Rating: 0.4)<\/p>\n
The Preds have as many first-round picks in their pool as any other team in the league, but they\u2019re missing that true all-star\/franchise\/MVP-level young talent, which feels like it\u2019s a tale as old as time for the organization.<\/p>\n
Brady Martin, Cameron Reid, Tanner Molendyk and Ryker Lee all made Prospect Tiers, but Zachary L\u2019Heureux, Yegor Surin, Matthew Wood, Fyodor Svechkov and co. were all bubble guys who didn\u2019t quite get enough love. They\u2019ve got a lot of young players coming who are going to play for them. L\u2019Heureux and Svechkov obviously already have. But they don\u2019t have a true franchise-altering guy coming. They\u2019re betting they can win with dogs. Who\u2019s going to be their 40-goal scorer or No. 1 D of the future, though?<\/p>\n
Their pool is better than their Future Rating maybe indicates, but that doesn’t mean it’s good enough to really raise the bar in their next few years.<\/p>\n
Almost no other team is situated worse for the next five years than Nashville. None of the team\u2019s current franchise faces project to be top-150 players in five years\u2019 time. All they\u2019re currently doing is raising Nashville\u2019s floor away from the top of the draft. It\u2019s time to rip the band-aid off.<\/p>\n
If the Predators bounce back this season, as many expect them to, there will be a temptation to keep building around the team\u2019s aging trio. The more pragmatic approach might be to flip one (or two, or three) of them given the immense value they would likely carry as non-rentals on pre-market-boom deals. <\/p>\n
Sure, it might be nice to watch another demoralizing first-round exit if everything goes according to plan. But it would probably be a lot nicer to watch an annual contender, and that starts with very difficult decisions like moving on from an aging core before it\u2019s too late. (Or not trading the goalie of the future to extend the 30-year-old in the first place). <\/p>\n
That might be too bold of an approach for a notoriously conservative league, but it might also be exactly what the Predators need to jump-start the next era. It\u2019s that, or delay the inevitable.<\/p>\n
Tier 3: Roman Josi, Filip Forsberg<\/p>\n
Tier 4: Juuse Saros<\/p>\n
Tier 4: Brady Martin<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Cameron Reid, Tanner Molendyk, Ryker Lee<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Present Outlook (Rating: 2.1)<\/p>\n
If you assume Erik Karlsson and Bryan Rust (and Rickard Rakell) are likely on the outs, Sidney Crosby in 2C is basically a living embodiment of the “Fresh Prince of Bel Air” scene where Will is all alone in an empty living room. Yes, Crosby still absolutely rules, but the rest is absolutely dire.<\/p>\n
But because of Crosby (and, for now, Karlsson and Rust), Pittsburgh\u2019s Present Rating isn\u2019t quite low enough at 2.1. That puts seven teams below them and if the 2025-26 goal is a real shot at Gavin McKenna, there\u2019s still work to do.<\/p>\n
Future Outlook (Rating: 0.3)<\/p>\n
The Pens have quickly filled empty cupboards with quantity. Harrison Brunicke, Ben Kindel and Rutger McGroarty all made Prospect Tiers. Ville Koivunen and Bill Zonnon were close and could appear in next year\u2019s project with another strong season. William Horcoff\u2019s probably going to be a nice third-line piece. <\/p>\n
Now they\u2019ve got to add quality \u2014 that future first-liner to wait in the wings (ideally two). Which brings us to\u2026<\/p>\n
Tank, tank, tank! We don\u2019t know what Karlsson, Rust and Rakell are all still doing on the roster, but the trio\u2019s presence is greatly inhibiting the Penguins from going all-in for Gavin McKenna. The Penguins are bad, but they\u2019re unfortunately not McKenna bad as currently constructed.<\/p>\n
There\u2019s no reasonable way the Penguins can get back to consistent contention before Crosby retires (unless he plays until he\u2019s 43.5, which we can\u2019t completely discount). That puts them in full-scale rebuild mode where building out the next core is the one and only priority. <\/p>\n
With Brunicke, McGroarty and Kindel grading out as Tier 5 prospects, it\u2019s safe to say the Penguins have their work cut out for them. Championships are built off multiple pieces in the top three tiers and the Penguins are one of just three teams expected to not have any in five years. <\/p>\n
The best way to get those pieces? The top of the draft. So again, we ask, what are Karlsson, Rust and Rakell still doing on this roster?<\/p>\n
Tier 2: Sidney Crosby<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Erik Karlsson, Bryan Rust<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Harrison Brunicke, Rutger McGroarty, Ben Kindel<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Present Outlook (Rating: 1.7)<\/p>\n
Matvei Michkov has joined Travis Konecny in Tier 4 and Travis Sanheim makes his debut in Tier 5. For the 2025-26 season, that\u2019s Philadelphia\u2019s core and you don\u2019t need us to tell you it\u2019s not playoff-caliber. The goal is still building toward the future and if the team\u2019s best player is Konecny, the future remains the primary focus. <\/p>\n
In the present, the big question is how high Michkov can climb in his second season. Even at 4C, a big jump is expected. But for Philadelphia\u2019s purposes, it would be good to see progression toward Tier 3 or higher. The best of the best, the ones who currently land in the top two tiers, started their ascent early. How Michkov develops will be the story of the season.<\/p>\n
Future Outlook (Rating: 2.2)<\/p>\n
In Michkov and Porter Martone, the Flyers have two of the top young wingers in the game. In Oliver Bonk, Jett Luchanko and Jack Nesbitt (who didn\u2019t get enough love to make the Prospect Tiers but could well play his way into next year\u2019s), you\u2019ve got complementary pieces at center and on the wing. In Yegor Zavragin (the very last goalie cut from Prospect Tiers) you might have your goalie of the future as well. <\/p>\n
But even if all of those players hit their ceilings, you\u2019re still missing a true No. 1 center and No. 1 D, the two hardest things to find \u2014 with all due respect to Sanheim, who is a first-pairing D but not a Stanley Cup No. 1.<\/p>\n
When the Flyers committed to guys like Konecny and Owen Tippett, they probably should have entered into an even more aggressive rebuild to try to find the center of the future to play with Michkov. Without that, it\u2019s going to be tough for them to turn this group into a true contender, even if Michkov becomes their Kucherov\/Pastrnak\/Panarin and Martone is a top power winger in the league, because those frontline centers just don\u2019t hit free agency very often and you can\u2019t count on winning one of those bidding wars.<\/p>\n
We\u2019re interested to see how Danny Briere and co. navigate this next phase.<\/p>\n
Tier 4: Travis Konecny, Matvei Michkov<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Travis Sanheim<\/p>\n
Tier 2: Matvei Michkov<\/p>\n
Tier 3: Porter Malone<\/p>\n
Tier 5: Oliver Bonk, Jett Luchanko<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Present Outlook (Rating: 0.5)<\/p>\n
Is it bad if a team\u2019s best player is Vince Dunn? That sounds pretty bad to us. <\/p>\n
Seattle\u2019s depth approach has floundered in consecutive seasons with last year\u2019s 27th-place finish feeling like confirmation for what should be the obvious: this team is not good enough.<\/p>\n
While the Kraken do have some strong players who might\u2019ve made the 151-200 list (Joey Daccord, Jared McCann, Matty Beniers, Brandon Montour), the problem is they don\u2019t have anyone close to the top 100. Having just a single player in 5C \u2014 a courtesy, frankly \u2014 is as rough as it gets. <\/p>\n
With how rough the top end looks, the Kraken are a sneaky contender for Gavin McKenna, something that might finally force Seattle onto the right path.<\/p>\n
Future Outlook (Rating: 1.9)<\/p>\n
Kraken fans were probably expecting to see a higher Future Rating. And while there\u2019s no denying they have a very strong group of four young centers to build around (with at least one likely to move to the wing), their future suffers from having one of the league\u2019s most lackluster cores. They\u2019ve got some talented potential complementary wingers coming in guys like Jani Nyman and Carson Rehkopf, who just missed out on inclusion in Prospect Tiers, too. But they\u2019ve yet to use a premium draft pick on a D and Niklas Kokko doesn\u2019t guarantee their future in net. (He was one of the final goalies cut from the Prospect Tiers by scouts, though, and is a solid prospect). <\/p>\n
A top-end young D would move the needle, so that should be a real focus.<\/p>\n
The best outcome for the Kraken in the next year would be that their season bottoms out, the ping-pong balls bounce their way, and they get lucky and get Gavin McKenna or one of the high-end D in the 2026 class. <\/p>\n
Without that, it\u2019s hard to see a path forward that ends in actual contention, even if all of their current prospects break just right. No team is more desparate for high-end talent \u2014 both now and in the future.\n<\/p>\n
Tier 3: Berkly Catton<\/p>\n
Tier 4: Matty Beniers, Shane Wright, Jake O’Brien<\/p>\n
Methodology<\/p>\n
Similar to this exercise<\/a>, we compared each player\u2019s final placement in the Player Tiers project with his projected Net Rating. That led to the following valuations for each position, depending on their tier placement \u2014 their \u201cTier Rating.\u201d<\/p>\nThose values were then added up for each team and normalized with percentiles to a scale of 0-to-10 to create their \u201cPresent Rating.\u201d<\/p>\n
To get each team\u2019s \u201cFuture Rating,\u201d we looked at how each player from the Player Tiers (and some young players\/goalies outside it) is projected to age over the next five seasons and applied that figure to their Tier Rating. We compared that number to the value for each Tier, and put each player in their corresponding future tier.<\/p>\n
That process left us with 86 names.<\/p>\n
With that in mind, we did the same exercise with the Prospect Tiers \u2014 assigning a Tier Rating to each one based on where they were placed. To get the 113 prospects outside the NHL to fit into the remaining top 150 \u2014 and to account for prospect uncertainty \u2014 we applied a sliding probability scale to each tier.<\/p>\n
Their Tier Ratings were added to the age-adjusted Tier Ratings of the remaining players for each team. That collective value, normalized to percentiles on a scale of 0-to-10, gave us our Future Rating.<\/p>\n
Each team\u2019s Present Rating and Future Rating were then plotted together (as seen in the introduction), informing their place in the Contention Cycle.<\/p>\n
(Top illustration: Dan Goldfarb \/ The Athletic; Steph Chambers, Ben Ludeman \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"When one contention window closes, another one opens. That\u2019s the NHL\u2019s circle of life, a cycle of teams…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":150156,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[433],"tags":[49,48,769,448,82],"class_list":["post-150155","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nhl","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-fantasy-hockey","tag-nhl","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/150155","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=150155"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/150155\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/150156"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=150155"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=150155"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=150155"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}