A softer month for jobs<\/p>\n
Australia\u2019s unemployment rate held at 4.2 per cent in August, but the latest labour force survey shows the jobs market is losing momentum. Employment fell by 5,400 and fewer people were actively looking for work.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe August result was soft, but the survey is volatile month to month,\u201d said Harry Ottley, Economist at CBA.<\/p>\n
\u201cEven so, we\u2019re seeing a slow loosening in the labour market. If market sector jobs don\u2019t pick up soon, unemployment could rise more than expected.\u201d<\/p>\n
Trend data shows gradual slowdown<\/p>\n
Trend unemployment smooths out short-term ups and downs to show the longer-term direction of the jobs market. It rose to 4.3 per cent in August – up from 4.0% at the start of the year, suggesting the labour market is gradually softening. Hours worked also fell, and the employment-to-population ratio dropped to its lowest level since March – suggesting job growth isn\u2019t keeping pace with population growth.<\/p>\n
State-level results were mixed. South Australia saw the biggest rise in unemployment (up 0.6 percentage points to 4.9 per cent), while Western Australia recorded the largest fall (down 0.3 points to 3.8 per cent).<\/p>\n
What it means for the RBA<\/p>\n
The unemployment rate is broadly tracking as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) had expected. With unemployment nearing the RBA\u2019s forecast peak however, any further rise could influence interest rate decisions into 2026.<\/p>\n