Every\u00a0NHL\u00a0season marks an opportunity for new stars to shine.<\/p>\n
The goal today is to scan around the league in search of hockey\u2019s next breakout players. \u201cBreaking out\u201d can mean something different for every player. This could be a highly touted youngster who takes a big step like Dylan Holloway or Kirill Marchenko did last season. Other times, it\u2019s an unheralded third-pair defender or bottom-six forward like Ryan Donato\u00a0who effectively steps into a larger role.<\/p>\n
We\u2019re looking for notable year-over-year growth, whether that\u2019s in the point totals or a player\u2019s overall role, responsibility and importance to the team.<\/p>\n
How do we identify these candidates? These are some of the most important attributes I look for:<\/p>\n
\u2022 Age-related growth potential (most players peak in their mid-20s, so if you\u2019re younger than that, you\u2019ve got a natural tailwind to improve).
\u2022 A bigger role\/increased ice time.
\u2022 New opportunities to play with upgraded linemate(s).<\/p>\n
I\u2019m going to exclude anyone eligible for the Calder Trophy from this exercise to make it more interesting. Simon Edvinsson would have been on this list, but he made last year\u2019s breakout candidates story and had a strong season, so I don\u2019t want to be redundant by repeating his name.<\/p>\n
Without further ado, let\u2019s get into our top 10 list.<\/p>\n
Leo Carlsson, Anaheim Ducks<\/p>\n
Leo Carlsson has a lot of the elite tools you look for in a future face-of-the-franchise centerman: He\u2019s got a powerful 6-foot-3 frame, buttery smooth puckhandling, and elite playmaking vision. Age-adjusted, Carlsson\u2019s 74 points in 131 career NHL games represent very good production. Last year\u2019s 20-goal, 45-point campaign wasn\u2019t quite the big breakout many expected, but there are several reasons to believe he\u2019ll take that step this time.<\/p>\n
Carlsson started slow but went on a 29-points-in-31-games tear to close out the season. Many of Anaheim\u2019s young offensive players should benefit from former head coach Greg Cronin\u2019s departure. Cronin\u2019s ultra-demanding defensive style likely stifled the team\u2019s offensive freedom and creativity \u2014 none of the club\u2019s young players, except for Jackson LaCombe, took a notable step last year. I\u2019d bet that was more of a coaching problem than a talent issue.<\/p>\n
The Ducks\u2019 32nd-ranked power-play should improve under new assistant Jay Woodcroft, and with the arrival of Chris Kreider, one of the league\u2019s best net-front power-play scorers. As a result, Carlsson, who plays a key role on the first unit, should see a big uptick from the seven power-play points he scored last year.<\/p>\n
There should be an opportunity for Carlsson to play more than the 16 minutes of ice time he averaged last season, too.<\/p>\n
Carlsson checks every box you look for in a breakout candidate: He\u2019s supremely skilled, was near a point-per-game from February onward, should benefit from upgraded coaching, and Year 3 is when many forwards with elite potential break out naturally.<\/p>\n
Zach Benson, Buffalo Sabres<\/p>\n
On the surface, Zach Benson\u2019s NHL production has been modest so far: He\u2019s scored 58 points in 146 games, which equates to a 32 points per 82 games pace. However, that production is far more meaningful when you remember that Benson only just turned 20 this offseason. Nobody should be alarmed that he hasn\u2019t yet produced at the clip of a top-six forward; if anything, the fact that he was an effective full-time NHL player during his age-18 and 19 seasons points to him having tantalizing upside. Connor Bedard is the only player in Benson\u2019s draft class with more games played.<\/p>\n
Benson is already an advanced two-way play driver; he drove 55 percent of shots and 54 percent of scoring chances during his five-on-five shifts last season, which was the best mark among all Sabres forwards. He\u2019s a puck battle-winning machine because of his relentless, non-stop work rate, and he can make high-end plays because of his puckhandling in traffic and playmaking vision.<\/p>\n
Most importantly, the JJ Peterka trade leaves Benson with a golden opportunity to play on the top line with Tage Thompson. Playing with a linemate of Thompson\u2019s caliber in a full-time top-six role could do wonders for boosting Benson\u2019s production. Benson was an elite point producer in junior, so there\u2019s plenty of reason to believe he has untapped offensive growth left, even though he is undersized and doesn\u2019t have elite straight-line speed.<\/p>\n
Kaedan Korczak, Vegas Golden Knights<\/p>\n
One of Vegas\u2019 rare homegrown talents, Kaedan Korczak has been on the cusp of establishing himself as an everyday NHL defenseman for the past couple of years. The 24-year-old right-shot was buried behind Vegas\u2019 deep defense, but finally has a meaningful opportunity to seize with Alex Pietrangelo and Nic Hague departing.<\/p>\n
Korczak isn\u2019t a flashy player, but with a sturdy 6-foot-3 frame and fluid skating ability, he profiles as a steady shutdown defender. He closes gaps quickly, disrupts plays, and drove impressive defensive results in 40 games last year, with the Golden Knights surrendering just 2.07 expected goals and 1.53 actual goals against per 60 during his five-on-five shifts. We, of course, have to take those numbers with a grain of salt because his role was pretty sheltered, but Vegas doesn\u2019t need him to play high-leverage top-four minutes immediately, anyway.<\/p>\n
Vegas is clearly a big believer in Korczak\u2019s talent, too, because they signed him to a four-year, $13 million extension this summer, even though his current deal doesn\u2019t expire until the end of this season. Expect Korczak to immediately shine in a third-pair role, with the potential for him to grow into a top-four player over the next two or three years.<\/p>\n
Frank Nazar, Chicago Blackhawks<\/p>\n
Frank Nazar is a prime example of how rapidly young players can improve in a matter of months.<\/p>\n
Last fall, Nazar went pointless in preseason and was assigned to the AHL to start the year. He was called up a couple of months later after tearing up the minors and became a full-time NHLer, but it wasn\u2019t until the end of the season that something special appeared to click. The speedy, high-energy 5-foot-10 center scored six goals and four assists in his last 11 games, and most impressively, accomplished that while driving his own line away from Connor Bedard. This summer, Nazar led gold-medal winning Team USA with 12 points in 10 games at the World Championships, outproducing big-name players like Clayton Keller, Tage Thompson, Matty Beniers, Conor Garland, and Will Smith, among others.<\/p>\n
Nazar is virtually locked into playing in a full-time top-six role as the Blackhawks\u2019 second-line center this year. He\u2019s going to get plum even-strength and power-play opportunities, and I fully expect him to seize them given how quickly he\u2019s improved over the last several months. Nazar\u2019s offensive toolkit is legitimate \u2014 he could easily double the 26 points he scored last year.<\/p>\n
Brandt Clarke, Los Angeles Kings<\/p>\n
The Kings\u2019 blue line was once one of the deepest in the NHL, but it\u2019s deteriorated to the point where it looks a bit vulnerable.<\/p>\n
Matt Roy, Sean Durzi, and Sean Walker all went elsewhere in previous years. Vladislav Gavrikov\u2019s free-agency exit this summer leaves a massive hole (he was arguably their most valuable defenseman last year), Drew Doughty\u2019s age is starting to show at 35, and by trading Jordan Spence, the club lost a quality depth puck mover. Tack on Cody Ceci and Brian Dumoulin as dicey free-agent signings on top of that, and there are suddenly some question marks on L.A.\u2019s backend.<\/p>\n
That uncertainty should pave the way for Brandt Clarke to step into a higher leverage role. Clarke had a decent rookie campaign with 33 points in 78 games, but his matchups were sheltered, and he averaged only 16:17 per game. The 22-year-old right-shot defender is very gifted with the puck, a skill set that\u2019s even more important considering the Kings\u2019 other bottom-four defenders \u2014 Ceci, Dumoulin, and Joel Edmundson \u2014 are big, slow veterans who are limited at making plays.<\/p>\n
There are two factors that could limit just how significant a leap Clarke takes. First, is whether the Kings\u2019 coaching staff will trust Clarke enough defensively to give him a consistent top-four opportunity. Secondly, the Kings had a lot of success with a five-forward power-play unit at the tail end of last year. If that continues, Clarke won\u2019t get a lot of PP1 time, which would put a cap on how many points he can register. However, even with those impediments, I think Clarke is ultimately too skilled not to meaningfully break out this year.<\/p>\n
Will Smith, San Jose Sharks<\/p>\n
They\u2019re somewhat different stylistically, but Will Smith\u2019s development trajectory reminds me of Logan Cooley. Both are incredibly skilled, average-sized forwards that were drafted top-five (Cooley in 2022 and Smith in 2023), spent their draft-plus-one season dominating the NCAA, and had similar rookie campaigns. Both players had slow starts as first-time NHLers \u2014 Cooley had just eight five-on-five points in his first 38 games, Smith had just nine five-on-five points in his first 34 games \u2014 but they each improved tremendously midseason, got hot in the second half, and finished their rookie years with around 45 points.<\/p>\n
Cooley, in his sophomore season last year, broke out as one of the most exciting U23 players in the NHL, racking up 65 points in 75 games. There\u2019s a good chance that Smith will follow in those footsteps during his own sophomore campaign this season.<\/p>\n
Smith turned a dramatic corner in the second half. He scored 30 points in his last 34 games and took massive strides as a play-driver. He was significantly underwater in his matchups in the first half, but by the end of the year, he was decisively winning his even-strength minutes, which is really impressive considering the porous quality of the team around him.<\/p>\n
Will Smith 5v5 play-driving improvement<\/p>\n
Sample<\/p>\n
\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
Shots (SF%)<\/p>\n
\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
Scoring Chances (SCF%)<\/p>\n
\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
Goals (GF%)<\/p>\n
\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
Last 34 GP<\/p>\n
50.6%<\/p>\n
51.3%<\/p>\n
58.8%<\/p>\n
First 40 GP<\/p>\n
45.3%<\/p>\n
43.4%<\/p>\n
37.2%<\/p>\n
Smith\u2019s early shift to the wing was a key catalyst for shaking off his slow start. It\u2019ll be fascinating to see how often Smith plays on the wing compared to center this season, but regardless, we should expect him to perform like a rising star.<\/p>\n
Cutter Gauthier, Anaheim Ducks<\/p>\n
Many of the reasons why I believe Carlsson will breakout also apply to Cutter Gauthier. Like Carlsson, Gauthier should benefit from the club\u2019s coaching change and a style of play that should offer a bit more offensive creativity. Gauthier will likely be a fixture on Anaheim\u2019s first-unit power play, which again, should score more with new coaching and Kreider\u2019s arrival as a dangerous power-play weapon.<\/p>\n
Gauthier had a sluggish first half with just five goals in his first 43 games, but he heated up down the stretch, scoring 11 goals and 22 points in his last 27 games. In fact, Gauthier was top-10 among all NHL players for five-on-five points in that timeframe, tied with Nathan MacKinnon, Sidney Crosby, and Kyle Connor, among others.<\/p>\n
Top 5v5 Point Leaders (Last 27 GP)<\/p>\n
While the production didn\u2019t come until late in the year, Gauthier was a prolific shot creator all season. He generated 9.5 shots per 60, which ranked in the top 20 among all NHL players. Adam Fantilli had similarly gaudy shot creation numbers as a rookie, and we saw him explode with 31 goals the following year. I think Gauthier can follow in Fantilli\u2019s footsteps and hit the 30-goal mark as a sophomore.<\/p>\n
Jet Greaves, Columbus Blue Jackets<\/p>\n
Making goalie predictions can be a fool\u2019s game with how volatile the position is. With that said, you\u2019ll be hard-pressed to find another young goaltender (excluding Calder-eligible guys like Yaroslav Askarov) with the AHL track record, ability, and opportunity to break out that Jet Greaves possesses.<\/p>\n
Signed as an undrafted netminder from the OHL in 2022, Greaves was one of the best starters in the AHL last season, delivering a .920 save percentage in 40 games. He was called up late in the season and almost single-handedly resuscitated the Blue Jackets\u2019 playoff hopes, going 7-2-2 with an outrageous .938 save percentage. He gave Columbus a few quality starts in 2023-24, too, with a .908 save percentage in nine appearances. I obviously don\u2019t expect him to replicate last year\u2019s ridiculous numbers, but in polling goalie experts, there are believers who think he should excel as a full-time NHL goaltender.<\/p>\n
Greaves\u2019 exact opportunity this season will hinge on the mercurial Elvis Merzlikins. If Merzlikins stabilizes, Greaves will be looking at a 1B opportunity. But if Merzlikins struggles, Greaves could have an opportunity to seize a 1A role.<\/p>\n
Goaltending has ailed the Blue Jackets in recent seasons, with the team\u2019s save percentage ranking 29th in the NHL over the last three seasons. Greaves\u2019 breakout potential could help remedy some of those woes.<\/p>\n
Connor Zary, Calgary Flames<\/p>\n
Connor Zary has averaged about half a point per game through the first two years of his NHL career. However, because of multiple injuries last year he hasn\u2019t quite had the breakout where he establishes himself as a no-doubt-about-it top-six forward. He has a perfect chance to make a name for himself entering Year 3, though.<\/p>\n
Zary has slick hands, heads-up, crafty playmaking ability, and plays hard. He isn\u2019t the fastest player, but every other part of his offensive toolkit screams top-six player. The Flames are a weak offensive team, so there will be tons of opportunity for Zary to get the kind of ice-time and power-play role that will allow him to produce at a high clip.<\/p>\n
The soon-to-be 24-year-old has strong two-way play-driving numbers, and you could argue that he was a bit snakebitten production-wise. Last year, Zary\u2019s line scored on just six percent of their shots, which was one of the lowest marks in the league. That finishing efficiency should improve \u2014 Zary\u2019s line shot 10 percent in his rookie campaign, for reference \u2014 which would juice his point totals.<\/p>\n
If he stays healthy, Zary could easily hit 50-plus points while solidifying himself as a key core player for the Flames long-term.<\/p>\n
Simon Nemec, New Jersey Devils<\/p>\n
Simon Nemec lasted just nine games with the Devils at the start of last season before being demoted to the minors. He had almost zero trust all year from Sheldon Keefe, who heavily sheltered him with just 14:59 of average ice-time per game and very soft matchups. Nemec looked tentative at both ends of the rink and was regularly exposed defensively. The Devils got crushed during Nemec\u2019s five-on-five shifts, controlling just 38 percent of expected goals and being outscored 17-8.<\/p>\n