{"id":163795,"date":"2025-09-23T12:40:10","date_gmt":"2025-09-23T12:40:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/163795\/"},"modified":"2025-09-23T12:40:10","modified_gmt":"2025-09-23T12:40:10","slug":"nfl-futures-2025-inside-the-line-teams-best-bets-to-make-playoffs-win-super-bowl-after-week-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/163795\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL futures 2025: Inside the Line team’s best bets to make playoffs, win Super Bowl after Week 3"},"content":{"rendered":"

After three weeks of the 2025 NFL<\/a> season, only six teams remain among the undefeated ranks. Ironically, the same number of clubs have yet to register a victory.<\/p>\n

The reigning Super Bowl<\/a> champion Philadelphia Eagles<\/a>, Tampa Bay Buccaneers<\/a> and San Francisco 49ers<\/a> are the NFC teams that have begun the year with 3-0 records, with each relying on their special teams to win in Week 3 on the final play of their respective contests.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Philadelphia blocked a game-winning field-goal attempt by the Los Angeles Rams<\/a>, the Buccaneers bounced back from a blocked field-goal try that was returned for a go-ahead touchdown by the New York Jets<\/a> to convert another attempt for the victory and the 49ers edged the Arizona Cardinals<\/a> on a kick as time expired after falling behind due to a safety with 3:15 remaining.<\/p>\n

In the AFC, the Buffalo Bills<\/a>, Indianapolis Colts<\/a> and Los Angeles Chargers<\/a> improved to 3-0 in different fashions. Buffalo squandered a fourth-quarter lead against the Miami Dolphins<\/a> before scoring 10 unanswered points in the final 7:17 to triumph, Indianapolis cruised past the Tennessee Titans<\/a> behind a three-touchdown performance by running back Jonathan Taylor<\/a> and the Chargers scored a game-tying TD with 2:37 left before winning on a field goal as the clock ran out to defeat the Denver Broncos<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Miami was the first team to fall to 0-3 and was joined on Sunday by Tennessee, the Houston Texans<\/a>, the New York Jets, the New Orleans Saints<\/a> and the New York Giants<\/a>. Of those six clubs, only the Texans made the playoffs last season, as they won their second straight AFC South title.<\/p>\n

Baltimore and Buffalo entered the season as the top AFC teams to win Super Bowl<\/a> LX at most of the major sportsbooks<\/a>. The Ravens<\/a> were favored at FanDuel Sportsbook<\/a>\u00a0and the Bills held that distinction at Caesars Sportsbook<\/a>. The teams were co-favorites at both DraftKings Sportsbook<\/a> and BetMGM Sportsbook<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The Bills’ comeback victory over the Ravens in Week 1 made them slight favorites at all four sportsbooks<\/a>, and they have maintained the edge at three of them over the next two weeks with odds ranging from +400 to +440. Baltimore, which faced the Detroit Lions<\/a> on Monday Night Football in Week 3, isn’t far behind (from +475 to +500), and the teams were even on Monday afternoon at +500 at FanDuel<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n

After posting their first win of the year this past Sunday, the Kansas City Chiefs<\/a> rank third in the AFC at FanDuel and BetMGM<\/a> at +1400, while the Chargers are third at Caesars<\/a> with those same odds. The teams are tied for the spot at DraftKings<\/a> with +1400 odds, while Los Angeles is priced at +1500 at the other two sportsbooks.<\/p>\n

Philadelphia, which was the preseason favorite among NFC teams to win the Lombardi Trophy, remains the top choice at Caesars (+680) and BetMGM (+700). The Green Bay Packers<\/a> are even with the Eagles at both FanDuel (+700) and DraftKings (+750) while sitting right behind them at the other two sportsbooks with +750 odds. Detroit is third among NFC clubs at all four with odds ranging from +1300 to +1500.<\/p>\n

According to SportsLine’s Inside the Lines team model, the Bills have the best chance at winning the first Super Bowl championship in franchise history. The ITL team sees Buffalo celebrating at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA, in February in well over 26% of its proven model’s simulations. It has the Eagles capturing the championship more than 15% of the time, while the Ravens win in about 14.5% of the simulations.<\/p>\n

When it comes to making the playoffs, the ITL team believes the Bills (99.9%) and Ravens (96.2%) are virtual locks in the AFC. The Colts (92.2%) and Chargers (90.5%) also are strong bets to qualify, while the Pittsburgh Steelers<\/a> (70.2%), Broncos (64.1%) and Chiefs (59.5%) reach the postseason the majority of the time.<\/p>\n

It comes as no surprise that the top teams to qualify for the postseason in the NFC, according to the ITL team, are the Buccaneers (97.6%) and Eagles (95.4%). The Packers (86.1%) also are good bets, while the 49ers (76.4%), Lions (71.8%), Washington Commanders<\/a> (66.4%) and Rams (59.9%) make it in the majority of the simulations.<\/p>\n

The ITL team’s model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks<\/a> since its inception, continues to crunch the numbers on the 2025 season. The model has adjusted its projections on each team’s playoff probability after Week 3’s games, as well as their chances to win the division, the conference and the Super Bowl. Based on the odds being offered at the top sportsbooks, there is value to be had.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Below, we’ll take a look at the model’s five biggest movers in both directions in each conference from Week 2 to Week 3 regarding their chances to make the playoffs and win the Super Bowl.<\/p>\n

Model’s top five rising AFC teams in playoff projections<\/p>\n

TEAM<\/p>\n

AFTER WEEK 2<\/p>\n

AFTER WEEK 3<\/p>\n

DIFFERENCE<\/p>\n

Pittsburgh Steelers<\/p>\n

50.8%<\/p>\n

70.2%<\/p>\n

+19.4%<\/p>\n

Indianapolis Colts<\/p>\n

78.7%<\/p>\n

92.2%<\/p>\n

+13.5%<\/p>\n

Jacksonville Jaguars<\/a><\/p>\n

30.4%<\/p>\n

40.9%<\/p>\n

+10.5%<\/p>\n

Cleveland Browns<\/a><\/p>\n

1.1%<\/p>\n

4.9%<\/p>\n

+3.8%<\/p>\n

Kansas City Chiefs<\/p>\n

56.2%<\/p>\n

59.5%<\/p>\n

+3.3%<\/p>\n

Model’s top five declining AFC teams in playoff projectionsModel’s top five rising AFC teams in Super Bowl projections<\/p>\n

TEAM<\/p>\n

AFTER WEEK 2<\/p>\n

AFTER WEEK 3<\/p>\n

DIFFERENCE<\/p>\n

Indianapolis Colts<\/p>\n

0.7%<\/p>\n

1.7%<\/p>\n

+1.0%<\/p>\n

Los Angeles Chargers<\/p>\n

3.2%<\/p>\n

3.6%<\/p>\n

+0.4%<\/p>\n

Pittsburgh Steelers<\/p>\n

1.4%<\/p>\n

1.8%<\/p>\n

+0.4%<\/p>\n

Buffalo Bills<\/p>\n

26.4%<\/p>\n

26.5%<\/p>\n

+0.1%<\/p>\n

Baltimore Ravens*<\/p>\n

14.5%<\/p>\n

14.6%<\/p>\n

+0.1%<\/p>\n

Model’s top five declining AFC teams in Super Bowl projections<\/p>\n

TEAM<\/p>\n

AFTER WEEK 2<\/p>\n

AFTER WEEK 3<\/p>\n

DIFFERENCE<\/p>\n

Cincinnati Bengals<\/p>\n

0.9%<\/p>\n

0.3%<\/p>\n

-0.6%<\/p>\n

Denver Broncos<\/p>\n

2.4%<\/p>\n

2.1%<\/p>\n

-0.3%<\/p>\n

Houston Texans<\/p>\n

0.4%<\/p>\n

0.1%<\/p>\n

-0.3%<\/p>\n

New England Patriots<\/p>\n

0.1%<\/p>\n

0.0%<\/p>\n

-0.1%<\/p>\n

Model’s top five rising NFC teams in playoff projections<\/p>\n

TEAM<\/p>\n

AFTER WEEK 2<\/p>\n

AFTER WEEK 3<\/p>\n

DIFFERENCE<\/p>\n

Washington Commanders<\/p>\n

46.8%<\/p>\n

66.4%<\/p>\n

+19.6%<\/p>\n

Seattle Seahawks<\/a><\/p>\n

31.2%<\/p>\n

44.1%<\/p>\n

+12.9%<\/p>\n

Detroit Lions*<\/p>\n

64.1%<\/p>\n

71.8%<\/p>\n

+7.7%<\/p>\n

Tampa Bay Buccaneers<\/p>\n

90.9%<\/p>\n

97.6%<\/p>\n

+6.7%<\/p>\n

Carolina Panthers<\/a><\/p>\n

0.9%<\/p>\n

4.4%<\/p>\n

+3.5%<\/p>\n

Model’s top five declining NFC teams in playoff projections<\/p>\n

TEAM<\/p>\n

AFTER WEEK 2<\/p>\n

AFTER WEEK 3<\/p>\n

DIFFERENCE<\/p>\n

Atlanta Falcons<\/a><\/p>\n

22.4%<\/p>\n

5.5%<\/p>\n

-16.9%<\/p>\n

Dallas Cowboys<\/a><\/p>\n

24.7%<\/p>\n

10.9%<\/p>\n

-13.8%<\/p>\n

Green Bay Packers<\/p>\n

97.3%<\/p>\n

86.1%<\/p>\n

-11.2%<\/p>\n

New Orleans Saints<\/p>\n

10.7%<\/p>\n

1.2%<\/p>\n

-9.5%<\/p>\n

Arizona Cardinals<\/p>\n

37.5%<\/p>\n

33.6%<\/p>\n

-3.9%<\/p>\n

Model’s top five rising NFC teams in Super Bowl projections<\/p>\n

TEAM<\/p>\n

AFTER WEEK 2<\/p>\n

AFTER WEEK 3<\/p>\n

DIFFERENCE<\/p>\n

Tampa Bay Buccaneers<\/p>\n

4.1%<\/p>\n

6.1%<\/p>\n

+2.0%<\/p>\n

Detroit Lions*<\/p>\n

5.8%<\/p>\n

7.8%<\/p>\n

+2.0%<\/p>\n

Washington Commanders<\/p>\n

1.7%<\/p>\n

3.3%<\/p>\n

+1.6%<\/p>\n

Philadelphia Eagles<\/p>\n

14.4%<\/p>\n

15.3%<\/p>\n

+0.9%<\/p>\n

Seattle Seahawks<\/p>\n

0.5%<\/p>\n

0.8%<\/p>\n

+0.3%<\/p>\n

Model’s top five declining NFC teams in Super Bowl projections<\/p>\n

TEAM<\/p>\n

AFTER WEEK 2<\/p>\n

AFTER WEEK 3<\/p>\n

DIFFERENCE<\/p>\n

Green Bay Packers<\/p>\n

17.4%<\/p>\n

10.0%<\/p>\n

-7.4%<\/p>\n

San Francisco 49ers<\/p>\n

2.2%<\/p>\n

1.2%<\/p>\n

-1.0%<\/p>\n

Minnesota Vikings<\/a><\/p>\n

1.0%<\/p>\n

0.8%<\/p>\n

-0.2%<\/p>\n

Dallas Cowboys<\/p>\n

0.3%<\/p>\n

0.1%<\/p>\n

-0.2%<\/p>\n

Atlanta Falcons<\/p>\n

0.2%<\/p>\n

0.0%<\/p>\n

-0.2%<\/p>\n

(Teams playing on Monday Night Football in Week 3 are noted with an asterisk.)<\/p>\n

While -500 at DraftKings on the Packers to make the playoffs is extreme value based on the model’s projection of 92.4%, a bettor still has to wager $500 to win $100 and lock up that money for months to do so. According to the model, there is better value on teams such as the Steelers and Seahawks.<\/p>\n

We’ll take a closer look at three of the model’s top plays to make the 2025 NFL postseason.<\/p>\n

1. Pittsburgh Steelers (+118, FanDuel)Playoff probability model projection: 70.2%<\/p>\n

The Steelers disappointed in Week 2 as they were defeated 31-17 by the Seahawks after opening the season with a thrilling 34-32 triumph over the Jets. They didn’t look overly impressive in Week 3 but did just enough to get past New England 21-14 on the road.<\/p>\n

Without yet clicking on all cylinders with four-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers<\/a> under center, Pittsburgh finds itself tied for first place in the AFC North. The fact that Cincinnati, which also is 2-1, already has felt the loss of quarterback Joe Burrow<\/a> (toe) with its 48-10 loss to Minnesota this past Sunday bodes well for the Steelers.<\/p>\n

Pittsburgh’s remaining schedule includes tough opponents such as Green Bay, Buffalo and Detroit – not to mention a pair of meetings with Baltimore – later in the season. But the Steelers’ next three contests are against the Vikings (with backup\u00a0Carson Wentz<\/a>\u00a0at QB), Browns and Bengals. If they’re able to run the table, their chances of earning a postseason berth should improve substantially.<\/p>\n

2. Washington Commanders (-134, FanDuel)Playoff probability model projection: 66.4%<\/p>\n

The Commanders were soundly beaten by the Packers in Week 2, as the game wasn’t as close as the 27-18 score suggested, and lost starting quarterback Jayden Daniels<\/a> to a sprained knee in the process. They managed to prevail without him last week, with Marcus Mariota<\/a> filling in adequately and the team’s ground attack racking up 201 yards while producing three touchdowns.<\/p>\n

Daniels is questionable for Washington’s Week 4 road matchup against the Falcons, as he has yet to practice since suffering the injury. But Atlanta already is 0-1 at home and was embarrassed by the Panthers 30-0 in Carolina this past Sunday.<\/p>\n

With the Giants being 0-3 and the Cowboys looking terrible defensively, the Commanders are the second-best team in the NFC East and certainly should challenge for a wild card spot in the conference. They still have two meetings with Dallas on their schedule and also will meet the Giants, Bears<\/a> and Dolphins, while their two games against the Eagles come over the final three weeks of the season, and Philadelphia may have nothing at stake by that time.<\/p>\n

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (-110, DraftKings)Playoff probability model projection: 40.9%<\/p>\n

Most pundits believe only one team will represent the AFC South in the postseason, given the weakness of the division. They also felt Houston would be that team, but the two-time defending division champion Texans have gotten off to an 0-3 start.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Indianapolis has stunned the football world, winning each of its first three games with Daniel Jones<\/a> under center. And the Jaguars are bouncing back nicely from their 4-13 showing in 2024, even though their two victories have come against the Panthers and struggling Texans.<\/p>\n

Jacksonville allowed only 10 points in each of those contests and ranks fifth in the NFL against the run with an average of 82.7 yards allowed. The schedule favors the Jaguars in their quest to make the playoffs for just the second time in eight seasons, as they have matchups against the Raiders, Texans and Jets on the horizon, as well as a pair of meetings with the Titans.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"After three weeks of the 2025 NFL season, only six teams remain among the undefeated ranks. Ironically, the…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":163796,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[436],"tags":[1754,1745,1766,1742,6359,1748,49,48,1744,43032,1735,1740,1724,1721,1765,1743,3163,1730,1737,1732,1725,2483,2213,2217,1727,1736,2210,1749,5399,1720,1726,1718,1734,1728,1723,514,25999,28458,84846,36905,48115,25996,84843,84842,84844,84840,1747,949,84841,948,1739,82,84845,25993,1733,1741,1758],"class_list":["post-163795","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nfl","tag-aaron-rodgers","tag-arizona-cardinals","tag-atlanta-falcons","tag-baltimore-ravens","tag-betting","tag-buffalo-bills","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-carolina-panthers","tag-carson-wentz","tag-chicago-bears","tag-cincinnati-bengals","tag-cleveland-browns","tag-dallas-cowboys","tag-daniel-jones","tag-denver-broncos","tag-detroit-lions","tag-green-bay-packers","tag-houston-texans","tag-indianapolis-colts","tag-jacksonville-jaguars","tag-jayden-daniels","tag-joe-burrow","tag-jonathan-taylor","tag-kansas-city-chiefs","tag-las-vegas-raiders","tag-los-angeles-chargers","tag-los-angeles-rams","tag-marcus-mariota","tag-miami-dolphins","tag-minnesota-vikings","tag-new-england-patriots","tag-new-orleans-saints","tag-new-york-giants","tag-new-york-jets","tag-nfl","tag-nfl-betting","tag-nfl-futures","tag-nfl-futures-best-bets","tag-nfl-futures-bets","tag-nfl-futures-odds","tag-nfl-gambling","tag-nfl-playoffs-best-bets","tag-nfl-playoffs-odds","tag-nfl-super-bowl-best-bets","tag-nfl-super-bowl-odds","tag-philadelphia-eagles","tag-pittsburgh-steelers","tag-playoffs-odds","tag-san-francisco-49ers","tag-seattle-seahawks","tag-sports","tag-super-bowl-best-bets","tag-super-bowl-odds","tag-tampa-bay-buccaneers","tag-tennessee-titans","tag-washington-commanders"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/163795","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=163795"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/163795\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/163796"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=163795"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=163795"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=163795"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}