{"id":164371,"date":"2025-09-23T18:10:10","date_gmt":"2025-09-23T18:10:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/164371\/"},"modified":"2025-09-23T18:10:10","modified_gmt":"2025-09-23T18:10:10","slug":"will-canada-avoid-a-recession-heres-what-economists-say-national","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/164371\/","title":{"rendered":"Will Canada avoid a recession? Here\u2019s what economists say – National"},"content":{"rendered":"

While U.S. President Donald Trump\u2019s<\/a> trade war continues to hit the Canadian economy, economists say Canada might just narrowly avoid a recession.<\/p>\n

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Economists define a recession<\/a> as two consecutive quarters of an economy contracting. In the second quarter of 2025, Canada\u2019s tariff-hit economy shrank by 1.6 per cent.<\/p>\n

In the third quarter, which ends in September, economists are expecting a bit of a bounceback.<\/p>\n

The Canadian Chamber of Commerce\u2019s Business Development Lab is projecting that Canada\u2019s economy will grow by 1.7 per cent in the third quarter. While that is soft growth, it would mean that Canada technically avoids a recession.<\/p>\n

After five straight quarters of Canadian business confidence plummeting, the Chamber of Commerce predicts \u201cbusiness confidence held flat in Q3.\u201d<\/p>\n

However, the report added that this was cause for \u201ccaution rather than renewed optimism.\u201d<\/p>\n

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The resilience in the Canadian economy was led by smaller firms, which have been able to pivot quickly to make their exports CUSMA-compliant in order to avoid tariffs, the report added.<\/p>\n

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\u201cMicro-exporters recorded the fastest gains in U.S. sales, helping to offset muted optimism among larger firms,\u201d the report said.<\/p>\n

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TD Bank predicts a quarterly growth rate of 0.8 per cent for Q3, which would mean a recession would be technically avoided.<\/p>\n

The Royal Bank of Canada is also projecting Canada\u2019s economy to grow modestly in the third quarter.<\/p>\n

\u201cEarly readings suggest the contraction in Q2 growth was not likely repeated in Q3,\u201d the RBC report released last week said.<\/p>\n

While Canada will avoid a large-scale recession, RBC predicted that Ontario could face \u201clocalized recessions\u201d in some tariff-hit markets.<\/p>\n

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\u201cOntario is clearly in the eye of the trade war storm, and we expect the province to face persistent economic headwinds throughout 2025 and into 2026 as it adapts to the new rules of trade,\u201d RBC said.<\/p>\n

The report said central-southern Ontario and southwestern Ontario \u2013 where Ontario\u2019s manufacturing workforce is concentrated \u2013 are being pummelled by Trump\u2019s tariffs.<\/p>\n

Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem said last week that under the current tariff regime, a recession is not expected, but growth is expected to slow. He added that the slower growth is \u201cnot going to feel good.\u201d<\/p>\n

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\n\t\t&copy 2025 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.\t<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"While U.S. President Donald Trump\u2019s trade war continues to hit the Canadian economy, economists say Canada might just…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":164372,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[45,49,48,1849,8334,46,3608],"class_list":["post-164371","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-consumer","tag-donald-trump-tariffs","tag-economy","tag-recession"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/164371","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=164371"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/164371\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/164372"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=164371"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=164371"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=164371"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}