{"id":166615,"date":"2025-09-24T18:04:10","date_gmt":"2025-09-24T18:04:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/166615\/"},"modified":"2025-09-24T18:04:10","modified_gmt":"2025-09-24T18:04:10","slug":"crystal-palaces-17-game-unbeaten-run-might-only-be-the-start","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/166615\/","title":{"rendered":"Crystal Palace’s 17-Game Unbeaten Run Might Only Be the Start"},"content":{"rendered":"

Crystal Palace are on
\nthe verge of equalling the longest unbeaten run in their history,
\nbut the data suggests things could get even better for
\nthem.<\/p>\n

The last few months could scarcely have gone any better for
\nCrystal
\nPalace<\/a>.<\/p>\n

After ending last season with an eight-game unbeaten run that
\nculminated in FA Cup glory, Oliver Glasner\u2019s side have continued
\ntheir fine form at the start of 2025-26.<\/p>\n

Palace have played nine games this season without suffering
\ndefeat, meaning they have now gone 17 games unbeaten in all
\ncompetitions. Avoid a loss to Liverpool<\/a>
\nnext weekend \u2013 the team they beat to the
\nCommunity Shield<\/a> last month \u2013 and they will equal the longest
\nunbeaten run in their history, an 18-game streak that ended in
\nAugust 1969.<\/p>\n

And on top of winning more silverware at Wembley, there has been
\nmore good news. They came through their UEFA Conference League
\nqualifier to make the league phase of the competition for their
\nfirst ever European campaign, they are into the EFL Cup fourth
\nround, and they currently sit fifth in the Premier League
\ntable.<\/p>\n

As we said, things couldn\u2019t really be going any better.<\/p>\n

Or could they?<\/p>\n

Opta\u2019s
\nexpected points model<\/a> suggests Palace actually deserve to be
\neven further up the league.<\/p>\n

Using expected goals data from each match in 2025-26, the model
\nsimulates every game 10,000 times and distributes expected points
\nbased on how often each game is won, drawn and lost in those
\nsimulations.<\/p>\n

In other words, the model looks at the quality of chances each
\nteam created in their games and calculates how likely each match
\nresult was based on the quality of those opportunities. While it\u2019s
\nnot an exact science in that it doesn\u2019t consider periods of
\nattacking pressure that don\u2019t end in a shot (as there\u2019s no xG
\nvalue), it is supposed to give a better indication of performance
\nquality than actual results which, we can all admit, don\u2019t
\nalways reflect how well or badly a team has played.<\/p>\n

The underlying data from the first five matchdays of the 2025-26
\nPremier
\nLeague<\/a> season suggests Palace shouldn\u2019t really be fifth.
\nInstead, incredibly, they deserve to be top of the league.<\/p>\n

\"Expected<\/p>\n

Okay, we\u2019re only five games in. Nobody is going to start saying
\nPalace are in the title race. And even if they were top \u2013 which
\nthey aren\u2019t \u2013 they probably wouldn\u2019t stay there.<\/p>\n

But the fact that they \u2018should\u2019 have more points than they do
\ncertainly bodes well. While the underlying data suggests
\nLiverpool\u2019s perfect record of five wins from five isn\u2019t sustainable
\n(the model says they should be sixth, with just 8.6 xPts rather
\nthan 15 actual points), Palace\u2019s performances have deserved even
\nmore than the nine points they\u2019ve got. If every team continue to
\nplay at the same standard as they have started the season and pick
\nup points closer to in line with the quality of their performances,
\nPalace could rise further up the table.<\/p>\n

Looking at the Premier League table over a longer period than
\nthe start of this season, the prospect of Palace rising into the
\ntop four really isn\u2019t all that fanciful. Listing Premier League
\nteams by their record since the start of 2025, Palace are fourth.
\nOnly Liverpool, Arsenal<\/a>
\nand Manchester
\nCity<\/a> have more than their 42 points in that time.<\/p>\n

\"Premier<\/p>\n

Much of their success is based on their exceptional defence.
\nThey have conceded only two goals in five games this season, giving
\nthem the league\u2019s joint-best defensive record alongside Arsenal.
\nBefore Jarrod Bowen\u2019s header from a corner for West
\nHam<\/a> on Saturday, Callum Hudson-Odoi had been the only player to
\nbreach Palace\u2019s defence.<\/p>\n

Their solidity is built on the back three of Marc
\nGu\u00e9hi<\/a>, Maxence
\nLacroix<\/a> and Chris
\nRichards<\/a>; Palace have kept 11 clean sheets in the 19 Premier
\nLeague games that trio have started in a back three together.<\/p>\n

They are slightly fortunate to be able to field them all. Gu\u00e9hi
\nvery nearly left for Liverpool in the summer and would have gone
\nhad he had his own way.<\/p>\n

In the end, though, he stayed. And anyway, Glasner\u2019s Palace are
\ngreater than the sum of their parts. They might have won as many
\npoints even if Gu\u00e9hi had gone.<\/p>\n

This isn\u2019t a team of individuals, but a solid, well-oiled and
\nfunctional machine that punches above its weight. That\u2019s something
\nthey have proved beyond doubt by continuing to perform this season
\nafter losing one of the most talented players the club has ever had
\nthis summer, with Eberechi
\nEze<\/a> having moved to Arsenal.<\/p>\n

Their reactive and direct style of football, based around their
\nsolid defence and quick transitions into the final third, is
\nproving hugely effective. In an age when teams across the Premier
\nLeague appear increasingly happy to play direct football, Palace\u2019s
\ndecision to appoint Glasner, whose teams have always played this
\nway, as manager in February 2024 has proved prescient.<\/p>\n

\nRead More\n<\/p>\n

This season, only Burnley<\/a>
\nand Brentford<\/a>
\nhave averaged less possession in Premier League games than Palace
\n(42.4%). Only Burnley have started their open-play passing
\nsequences closer to their own goal than Palace (39.4 metres away).
\nPalace\u2019s players have applied significantly fewer pressures in the
\nfinal third than any other team, with their total of 388 some 82
\nlower than anyone else, and they have won possession within 40
\nmetres of the opposition\u2019s goal fewer times (19) than any other
\nteam. They have attacked up the pitch at a faster speed (2.02
\nmetres per second) than every team other than bar Burnley (2.10
\nm\/s).<\/p>\n

These stats do a good job of building a picture of the kind of
\nteam Palace are. Sit back, soak up pressure, hit the opposition on
\nthe break, right?<\/p>\n

Well, not entirely.<\/p>\n

Although Palace press high less than anyone else, they also
\ndon\u2019t drop back into a low block and defend in a compact shape
\nright in front of their own goal for long periods. They have spent
\nmore time out of possession against opposition build-up in a
\nmid-block (62%) than any other team, suggesting they aren\u2019t
\nentirely risk-averse, choosing to leave a little space in behind
\ntheir defensive line, thereby reducing the amount of space the
\nopposition have to operate in.<\/p>\n

\"Premier<\/p>\n

They also haven\u2019t been very effective with their
\ncounter-attacks, registering just one shot and no goals from fast
\nbreaks. Both are lower than just about every other team in the
\nPremier League this season. They aren\u2019t a
\nlow-block-and-counter-attack kind of team.<\/p>\n

There is, in fact much more to them. They can be much more
\ncontrolled and assured in the final third than their possession
\nnumbers initially indicate. They consistently find their way into
\ndangerous positions by attacking up the pitch at pace, but they
\ndon\u2019t rush things once they get there. They are happy to pause to
\ntake stock before making a sensible decision as to what to do.<\/p>\n

Crosses have proved their main route to goal this season, with
\nall five of their non-penalty Premier League goals having followed
\na cross of some sort.<\/p>\n

Two of those were at set-pieces, where they have been
\nparticularly effective. Only Arsenal, Everton<\/a>
\nand Chelsea<\/a>
\nhave generated more xG at set-pieces this season than Palace (3.00
\nxG).<\/p>\n

But that is not to say they are reliant on dead balls. They rank
\nfifth (ahead of all three teams who have more xG at set-pieces than
\nthem) in the Premier League for open-play xG this season, with 4.7.
\nThey are only behind Man City, Man
\nUtd<\/a>, Brighton<\/a>
\nand Liverpool in this regard, each of whom play a more
\npossession-based game.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, at the other end of the pitch, their mid-block
\ndefensive approach is working wonders. Through five Premier League
\nmatches, they have conceded chances in open play worth just 1.7 xG.
\nThat\u2019s an average of only 0.3 xG per game.<\/p>\n

They do need to improve at defensive set-pieces, having conceded
\n3.0 xG \u2013 the fourth-highest in the league \u2013 including Bowen\u2019s goal
\nat West Ham at the weekend, but that feels like something Glasner
\ncould improve without too much work. It hardly seems like giving up
\na few too many chances at set-pieces is something to worry
\nabout.<\/p>\n

In fact, there doesn\u2019t seem to be much for Palace to worry about
\nat all. The Eagles are flying high, and the data suggests they
\nmight soar even higher before long.<\/p>\n

They have 59 points from their last 38 Premier League games (the
\nlength of a full season), but having lost the first three games in
\nthat run, they could soon set a club record for any 38-game period
\nin their Premier League history. That record is held by Alan
\nPardew\u2019s Palace in December 2015, at 63 points. If Palace take five
\npoints from games against Liverpool, Everton and Bournemouth<\/a>,
\nthey\u2019ll break that record.<\/p>\n

\"Crystal
\nJonathan
\nManuel \/ Data Analyst<\/a><\/p>\n

In three of the past four seasons, 63 points was enough to come
\nsixth, which would be the highest position Palace had ever finished
\nin the Premier League era.<\/p>\n

Their form at the end of last season and the start of this one
\nsuggests picking up that many points is eminently possible.<\/p>\n

This is a formidable and reliable side who have already done
\nplenty of things that no Crystal Palace team have done before.
\nThere\u2019s every reason to believe they can carry on doing just
\nthat.<\/p>\n


\n\"Premier<\/a><\/p>\n

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