How\u2019d it go? Not great! It turned out to be a tough year to ride a dark horse, with the Norris (Cale Makar), Vezina (Connor Hellebuyck) and Selke (Aleksander Barkov) all going to favorites. Nikita Kucherov\u2019s Art Ross and Draisaitl\u2019s Rocket Richard weren\u2019t long shots either. But even in a year of mostly chalk<\/a>, there were surprises. Spencer Carbery went into the season at 22-to-1 to win the Jack Adams. And while Hellebuyck\u2019s Vezina was no surprise, his Hart certainly was \u2014 his preseason odds were a stunning 150-to-1.<\/p>\n Did the three of us nail any of those picks? We did not. And as you\u2019d expect from this sort of exercise, some of our picks look pretty silly in hindsight. Connor Bedard did not, in fact, follow in the footsteps of Sidney Crosby and Connor McDavid and win the Hart Trophy in Year 2. Jesper Wallstedt did not win the Calder. Alexandar Georgiev fell just short of the Vezina, and eventually also just short of having a job. But even with all those swing-and-miss picks, we at least fouled a few off. Gentille took Martin St. Louis as his Jack Adams pick at 35-to-1, and he was a finalist. And while Thomas Harley didn\u2019t win the Norris, he did finish seventh, which isn\u2019t bad for a guy who we had at 300-to-1.<\/p>\n This year, we\u2019re going to try again. Below, you\u2019ll find our long-shot picks for several major awards, based on Fanduel odds that were current as of earlier this week (note that odds can shift as the season gets closer). Our cut off is 20-to-1, so we\u2019ll need to be both lucky and good. Let\u2019s take a few more big swings and see if this is the year we can knock one out of the park.<\/p>\n Norris Trophy (best defenseman)<\/p>\n McIndoe: This one feels like fertile ground for a long-shot pick, with oddsmakers apparently so convinced that this is a two-horse race between Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes that nobody else has much of a chance. That leaves plenty of tempting names, but I\u2019ll show some loyalty and go back to last year\u2019s pick: Thomas Harley, whose odds have jumped from 2024\u2019s 300-to-1 to a more reasonable but still enticing 60-to-1. Not bad for a guy who finished top 10 in last year\u2019s voting.<\/p>\n Luszczyszyn: There are two things I\u2019m mad about here. The first is that Adam Fox\u2019s egregious line has moved from 35-to-1 earlier this summer to out of our 20-to-1 range. The second is that Rasmus Dahlin just barely misses the cut-off at 19-to-1 \u2014 he would\u2019ve been my easy choice considering how high I am on the Sabres this season.<\/p>\n My pick: Moritz Seider at \u2026 500-to-1?! That feels like an absolutely ludicrous price for someone who established himself as one of the game\u2019s top defensemen last season. There are a lot of voters hungry to vote for a Defense-First Guy, and Seider fits that bill while still putting up enough points to warrant consideration (sorry Jaccob Slavin). Seider has some vintage Drew Doughty vibes where he might not need 70 points for consideration; 60 might do. If the Red Wings make the playoffs, Seider will be a big part of that. He should be priced a lot closer to our next pick.<\/p>\n Gentille: Lobbing up a first-pitch meatball, are we? I\u2019m taking Jake Sanderson at 85-to-1. There were several NHL people I spoke to for the Player Tiers who sounded borderline obsessed with him; I think last season put him on a lot of radars for awards consideration, and laying that sort of track is important. Also, if Ottawa\u2019s power-play can be a little better than mid-grade, his point total will jump into the 60s or 70s, and I\u2019m not sure that\u2019s in the cards for Seider.<\/p>\n Vezina Trophy (best goalie)<\/p>\n McIndoe: The logic for picking the Vezina is that it\u2019s voted on by GMs who like to see big win totals, so if you can pick a guy from a team that will win a ton, then you\u2019re halfway there. I think the Avs will do a lot of winning, and I haven\u2019t been able to have a conversation with Jesse Granger in two years that doesn\u2019t end up with him rambling about how much he loves Mackenzie Blackwood, so you do the math. I\u2019ll take him at 27-to-1.<\/p>\n Luszczyszyn: Anthony Stolarz has the per-game numbers to be Vezina-worthy; he just needs the start volume. Last year, he put his name on the map in a big market. This year, I would like to see him have a good season akin to Linus Ullmark\u2019s win during the 2022-23 season. Maybe not \u201c40-6-1 and a .938 save percentage\u201d good, but 50 games with a high-end save percentage and a lot of wins could be enough. I\u2019ll take that at 27-to-1.<\/p>\n Gentille: I\u2019d love to vote for Jeremy Swayman (40-1) here, but I\u2019m pretty sure the Bruins are going to be disqualifyingly bad. Whatever \u2014 let\u2019s get nuts. Stuart Skinner at 150-1. This is a regular-season award! What value! It\u2019s within the realm of possibility that Skinner strings together five good months as the Oilers rack up wins, and we all know they\u2019re never going to even attempt replacing him.<\/p>\n Calder Trophy (best rookie)<\/p>\n McIndoe: I\u2019m not sure why we\u2019re including this one, since my understanding is that they\u2019ve already inscribed Ivan Demidov\u2019s name on the trophy. But on the off chance they create a second award, put me down for Washington\u2019s Ryan Leonard at 25-to-1.<\/p>\n Luszczyszyn: I don\u2019t know anything about prospects, but I\u2019ll gladly take the 2024 top-10 pick who put up back-to-back 100-plus point seasons in the WHL. It\u2019s possible Berkly Catton doesn\u2019t make the Kraken out of camp, but he looks to be penciled in at the moment on a team that\u2019s desperate for offensive firepower. He\u2019s flying under the radar a bit at 70-to-1 odds.<\/p>\n Gentille: Yeah, I\u2019m trying to follow last season\u2019s arc, when Matvei Michkov started the season as everybody\u2019s Calder choice before getting passed pretty decisively by Lane Hutson. In the realm of the long shots, I think Zayne Parekh (25-to-1) comes closest. The prospect guys, Scott Wheeler in particular, view him as someone with next-level offensive potential at the position. All he\u2019s got to do is make the Flames first.<\/p>\n
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