{"id":174012,"date":"2025-09-27T22:50:08","date_gmt":"2025-09-27T22:50:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/174012\/"},"modified":"2025-09-27T22:50:08","modified_gmt":"2025-09-27T22:50:08","slug":"housing-market-a-gauge-of-future-home-sales-just-turned-negative-despite-9-weeks-of-falling-mortgage-rates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/174012\/","title":{"rendered":"Housing market: A gauge of future home sales just turned negative despite 9 weeks of falling mortgage rates"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Mortgage rates have been coming down, but there has yet to be a spike in homebuying activity\u2014and one leading indicator has even declined.<\/p>\n<p>Pending home sales, or signed contracts leading up to a sale, fell for the first time in nearly three months, slipping about 1% during the four weeks ending Sept. 21 compared to a year earlier, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-market-update-pending-sales-rates-fall\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-market-update-pending-sales-rates-fall\/\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/housing-market-update-pending-sales-rates-fall\/\" class=\"sc-4f49155c-0 hLtviE\">according to a Redfin report<\/a> on Thursday.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s despite the weekly average mortgage rate sliding for nine consecutive weeks, hitting an 11-month low of 6.26% after reaching 6.8% at the start of the summer.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, separate data from the National Association of Realtors on Thursday showed that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nar.realtor\/sites\/default\/files\/2025-09\/ehs-08-2025-summary-2025-09-25.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/www.nar.realtor\/sites\/default\/files\/2025-09\/ehs-08-2025-summary-2025-09-25.pdf\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.nar.realtor\/sites\/default\/files\/2025-09\/ehs-08-2025-summary-2025-09-25.pdf\" class=\"sc-4f49155c-0 hLtviE\">sales of existing homes<\/a> dipped 0.2% in August from the prior month. While they were up 1.8% from a year ago, the recent trend still points to a stagnant housing market.<\/p>\n<p>To be sure, lower mortgage rates have sparked a surge in at least one corner of the housing market. Redfin pointed out that mortgage applications to\u00a0refinance\u00a0homes <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mba.org\/news-and-research\/newsroom\/news\/2025\/09\/17\/mortgage-application-payments-increased-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/www.mba.org\/news-and-research\/newsroom\/news\/2025\/09\/17\/mortgage-application-payments-increased-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey\" class=\"sc-4f49155c-0 hLtviE\">jumped 58%<\/a>\u00a0in the second week of September from the prior week. <\/p>\n<p>But mortgage-purchase applications edged up just 3%, and the anemic sales data are dashing hopes that cheaper borrowing costs will quickly jump start the housing market.<\/p>\n<p>Redfin highlighted four factors weighing on housing demand: still-elevated home prices, would-be buyers waiting for mortgage rates to go below 6%, <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2025\/09\/22\/home-sales-outlook-worst-year-1995-housing-market-gridlock\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/fortune.com\/2025\/09\/22\/home-sales-outlook-worst-year-1995-housing-market-gridlock\/\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2025\/09\/22\/home-sales-outlook-worst-year-1995-housing-market-gridlock\/\" class=\"sc-4f49155c-0 hLtviE\">muted supply of new listings<\/a>, and economic uncertainty.<\/p>\n<p>Those waiting for mortgage rates to fall further may have already missed their chance, as borrowing costs have started to tick higher again.<\/p>\n<p>According to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/markets\/mortgage-rates-09262025\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/markets\/mortgage-rates-09262025\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/markets\/mortgage-rates-09262025\" class=\"sc-4f49155c-0 hLtviE\">Mortgage News Daily<\/a>, top-tier 30-year fixed rates were in the high 6.3% range on Friday, flat from the previous Friday but up from 6.1% range in the first half of last week.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s as <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2025\/09\/27\/economic-outlook-gdp-forecast-q3-4-percent-consumer-spending-income-recession-warning\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/fortune.com\/2025\/09\/27\/economic-outlook-gdp-forecast-q3-4-percent-consumer-spending-income-recession-warning\/\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2025\/09\/27\/economic-outlook-gdp-forecast-q3-4-percent-consumer-spending-income-recession-warning\/\" class=\"sc-4f49155c-0 hLtviE\">recent economic data have come in hot<\/a>, lowering expectations for aggressive rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. As a result, Treasury yields have rebounded, lifting borrowing costs elsewhere, including mortgage rates.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, job growth hasn\u2019t been as robust as other indicators have been, casting gloom over the housing market. In addition, uncertainty about President Donald Trump\u2019s tariffs and recession fears still linger, according to Redfin.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cA lot of buyers are hesitating because they\u2019re worried about potentially losing their jobs, losing money in their stock portfolio, and the economy in general,\u201d said Josh Felder, a Redfin Premier agent in San Francisco, in a statement. \u201cMany of the buyers who are moving forward are making offers with contingencies, and are willing to walk away during the inspection period if they don\u2019t get the concessions they want.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<p>Fortune Global Forum returns Oct. 26\u201327, 2025 in Riyadh. CEOs and global leaders will gather for a dynamic, invitation-only event shaping the future of business. <a href=\"https:\/\/conferences.fortune.com\/event\/global-forum-2025\/summary?utm_source=fortunecom&amp;utm_medium=plealink\" target=\"_self\" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/conferences.fortune.com\/event\/global-forum-2025\/summary?utm_source=fortunecom&amp;utm_medium=plealink\" class=\"sc-4f49155c-0 hLtviE\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Apply for an invitation.<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Mortgage rates have been coming down, but there has yet to be a spike in homebuying activity\u2014and one&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":174013,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[45,49,48,11185,4520,100,88962,17757],"class_list":{"0":"post-174012","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-markets","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-ca","10":"tag-canada","11":"tag-home-prices","12":"tag-housing","13":"tag-markets","14":"tag-mortgage-affordability","15":"tag-mortgage-rates"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/174012","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=174012"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/174012\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/174013"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=174012"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=174012"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=174012"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}