The Matthew Golden breakout week has finally arrived! <\/p>\n
Yes, some of us had to wait a little longer than expected.<\/p>\n
Matthew Golden versus the Browns in Week 3 \ud83d\udcc8<\/p>\n
\u2022 22 routes run
\u2022 4 targets
\u2022 4 receptions
\u2022 52 receiving yards
\u2022 34-yard reception
\u2022 3 carries
\u2022 9 rushing yards<\/p>\n
The Cowboys have the worst pass defense in the NFL. Over 37.5 receiving yards is a bet. Stay tuned. \ud83e\ude9c pic.twitter.com\/7QSa7dkj29<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Domenic Padula (@Domenic_Padula) September 24, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n In Week 3, the Green Bay Packers rookie first round pick set career highs with four receptions for 52 yards in an ugly 13-10 loss to the Cleveland Browns.<\/p>\n Sure, Golden might have had an opportunity to deliver even better numbers and potentially seal a win for the Packers in Cleveland if he hit the burners and turned up the field on this 32-yard reception late in the game.<\/p>\n The more I\u2019ve thought about this play the more I think it\u2019s as simple as a ball thrown this far outside the hashes in college is against the sideline. <\/p>\n In the NFL, it\u2019s not and Golden has to get used to that. pic.twitter.com\/mCD8o4Njei<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Peter Bukowski (@Peter_Bukowski) September 22, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n Still, after he failed to capitalize on golden opportunities in his first two NFL games, it was great to watch along as the 22-year-old flashed the talent that convinced Green Bay to make him a first-round pick in this year\u2019s draft, and cash a few bets along the way.<\/p>\n Fortunately, I stayed away from the Packers on my parlays and in Survivor Pools.<\/p>\n A collapse in Cleveland has set the stage for a potentially epic revenge game on Sunday Night Football as the AP NFL Defensive Player of the Year favourite Micah Parsons leads Green Bay against his former team.<\/p>\n The Packers are a 6.5-point favourite for Sunday\u2019s game against the Dallas Cowboys. <\/p>\n While the spotlight is on Parsons in his return to Dallas, my eyes never left Golden heading into an appealing match-up against the Cowboys defence.<\/p>\n Dallas ranks 32nd in the NFL with an average of 288.0 passing yards allowed per game this season.<\/p>\n That\u2019s despite a Week 1 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in which Jalen Hurts recorded just 152 passing yards.<\/p>\n The following week, Russell Wilson torched the Cowboys for 361 yards and two touchdowns and nearly led the New York Giants to an upset win in overtime.<\/p>\n Then in Week 3, Caleb Williams registered 298 passing yards, and four touchdown passes as the Chicago Bears beat Dallas 31-14.<\/p>\n Now it\u2019s the Packers turn to tee off against the Cowboys defence, with the added motivation of last week\u2019s loss to the Browns and the potential revenge for Parsons.<\/p>\n Dallas ranks 32nd in the NFL against Deep Passing, 32nd in Passing vs. No Pressure, and 31st in Overall Passing Efficiency this season.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, Golden\u2019s route rate has gone up every week thanks in part to Jayden Reed\u2019s injury.<\/p>\n All the advanced analytics indicate Golden\u2019s numbers versus Cleveland should be considered his floor for Sunday Night Football.<\/p>\n Apparently, I\u2019m not the only one who has noticed.<\/p>\n If you don\u2019t read my Morning Coffee column, then you might have missed the early train for Golden props when it left the station.<\/p>\n I locked in Golden over 37.5 receiving yards at one notable sportsbook on Wednesday morning.<\/p>\n By the time FanDuel released a number for Golden on Thursday, I was staring at 40.5 as the best number.<\/p>\n Jokingly, I complained to FanDuel on social media that they didn\u2019t give me any alt numbers for Golden.<\/p>\n Interestingly, Golden\u2019s receiving yards prop shot all the way up to 48.5 at FanDuel just after noon on Friday.<\/p>\n That\u2019s an astounding increase of nearly 30 per cent on the best opening price in market.<\/p>\n Apparently, it was too large of an adjustment. <\/p>\n Golden\u2019s receiving yards prop has crept down from 48.5 to 47.5, then 46.5, then 44.5, and then 43.5 at FanDuel.<\/p>\n As of Saturday night, FanDuel\u2019s number is the best I see on the board, with most sportsbooks sticking at 47.5.<\/p>\n My model projects Golden to have four catches for 62 yards against the Cowboys.<\/p>\n Of course, Golden has the upside to outperform that projection against a suspect Dallas pass defence.<\/p>\n However, he also has the potential to disappoint the way he did in Week 2 against the Washington Commanders, when he failed to catch either of his targets.<\/p>\n The fact that the Cowboys have been so bad against the run as well means that Packers head coach Matt LaFleur should be able to pick his poison on Sunday night.<\/p>\n Average Separation Score vs. Targets per Route Run through Week 3<\/p>\n – I refuse to believe Ladd McConkey will occupy a similar TPRR\/separation space to Romeo Doubs all year<\/p>\n – DK Metcalf ranks dead-last in separation pic.twitter.com\/ZeM7dCW0OZ<\/a><\/p>\n