{"id":178591,"date":"2025-09-29T21:33:10","date_gmt":"2025-09-29T21:33:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/178591\/"},"modified":"2025-09-29T21:33:10","modified_gmt":"2025-09-29T21:33:10","slug":"best-bets-picks-to-target-before-lines-move","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/178591\/","title":{"rendered":"Best bets, picks to target before lines move"},"content":{"rendered":"

\t\tGambling content 21+. The New York Post may receive an affiliate commission if you sign up through our links. Read our editorial standards<\/a> for more information.<\/p>\n

The season is going by quickly. <\/p>\n

Already approaching Week 5 of the NFL season, we take a look ahead as \u201cMonday Night Football\u201d is set to go off with a doubleheader.<\/p>\n

The Jets head to Miami to face the Dolphins, while the Broncos play host to the injury-saddled Bengals<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Those games will certainly come into focus for our Week 5 early predictions, where we\u2019ve gone 2-2 thus far but have also scored closing line value in three of our four picks.<\/p>\n

The goal here is to get the best of the number and look for middle spots later in the week.<\/p>\n

NFL Week 5 early predictions <\/p>\n

\"DenverBox Nix may move this line dramatically ahead of Week 5. Getty Images<\/p>\n

Broncos (+5.5, ESPN BET<\/a>) @ Eagles<\/p>\n

Pro Football Focus\u2019 two best offensive lines face off on Sunday, and I have some reservations about backing the Eagles this week.<\/p>\n

I picked the Broncos to cover 7.5 against the Bengals<\/a> on \u201cMonday Night Football\u201d and while it\u2019s entirely possible that this doesn\u2019t happen, I suspect that Denver matches up very well with Philadelphia.<\/p>\n

Denver is actually rated the No. 11 team in DVOA this year, one spot ahead of the Eagles, so at the minimum, that statistic views this game as a coin flip on a neutral field.<\/p>\n

If you give three points for home-field advantage, I\u2019m viewing this as an additional 2.5 points that we are getting against the spread, which could be a solid value by game time on Sunday.<\/p>\n

There is much we have to learn about the Broncos, but we know that the Eagles are currently struggling to throw the ball.<\/p>\n

\"PhiladelphiaJalen Hurts and the Eagles did not complete a pas in the second half against the Buccaneers. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect<\/p>\n

Giants (+1.5, BetMGM<\/a>) @ Saints<\/p>\n

Spare everyone your sorrows; no one feels bad for Big Blue that they lost Malik Nabers to an ACL injury. And let\u2019s also just call the loss of a receiver due to this injury, and an ensuing live move of two points, overly dramatic.<\/p>\n

Sure, Nabers was the biggest part of their offense. However, the Giants have just injected a new quarterback who defeated one of the Super Bowl favorites. <\/p>\n

Jaxson Dart is a big fish that the Giants believe in.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s say that Dart doesn\u2019t play with what appeared to be a hamstring injury, and Russell Wilson is forced into the lineup instead.<\/p>\n

Betting on the NFL? <\/p>\n

I still would like Big Blue as an underdog because of that defense, which found its groove on Sunday.<\/p>\n

A crazy stat that you might not know about: The Giants recorded a pass rush win rate of 68 percent on Sunday, the highest number of any game since the metric was introduced in 2017.<\/p>\n

This is a nightmare matchup for the Saints, who are 27th in pass block win rate and 31st in run block win rate.<\/p>\n

The Giants will be 2-3 after Week 5, and I suspect they will go off as favorites by Sunday.<\/p>\n

Why Trust New York Post Betting<\/p>\n

Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he\u2019s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Gambling content 21+. The New York Post may receive an affiliate commission if you sign up through our…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":178592,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[436],"tags":[6359,49,48,1743,1734,1728,514,25999,1747,82,6452,29055],"class_list":["post-178591","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nfl","tag-betting","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-denver-broncos","tag-new-orleans-saints","tag-new-york-giants","tag-nfl","tag-nfl-betting","tag-philadelphia-eagles","tag-sports","tag-sports-betting","tag-sports-picks"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/178591","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=178591"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/178591\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/178592"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=178591"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=178591"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=178591"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}