The WNBA Finals can be characterized as a battle between two adversaries overcoming adversity. <\/p>\n
Both franchises and players have hit some low lows to reach this stage. <\/p>\n
On the Las Vegas side, I\u2019ve written ad nauseam about their outlook as a .500 team and the doubts that tailed them all season until their 16-game winning streak. <\/p>\n
For the Phoenix Mercury, their challenges span a much wider timeline. <\/p>\n
As noted by the staff at ESPN, Phoenix returns to the WNBA Finals for the first time since 2021 and is the only team over a five-year period to do so without a single returning player. <\/p>\n
Kahleah Copper and Natasha Mack are the only two carryover players from 2024.<\/p>\n
This is a franchise that endured three straight losing season before miraculously overcoming the defending champion New York Liberty and title favourite Minnesota Lynx. <\/p>\n
While both teams weren\u2019t projected to reach the Finals, it\u2019s not all that surprising when you look at their respective leaders. <\/p>\n
A\u2019ja Wilson is undeniably the league\u2019s best player and possibly the greatest of all time. <\/p>\n
But credit is also due to Alyssa Thomas who\u2019s been a Top 5 MVP candidate over the last four seasons. <\/p>\n
She\u2019s been knocking on the door individually while carrying the Connecticut Sun for years with eight straight playoff appearances. <\/p>\n
After changing teams for the first time in her 11-year career, AT\u2019s immediate appearance in the Finals validates her Hall of Fame case.<\/p>\n
Both teams have a rock-solid leader with a strong supporting cast, but neither got here without some red flags. <\/p>\n
After grading as a top-ranked defence for the past four seasons, the Aces dropped to eighth in defensive rating this year and carried those woes over to the postseason. <\/p>\n
Head coach Becky Hammon acknowledged that after their victory on Tuesday. <\/p>\n
\u201cI love that we hit some shots tonight and scored 107 points, but it\u2019s not the way this team has traditionally won games. Our defence has to get better. Our rebounding has to get better.\u201d<\/p>\n
For Phoenix, they\u2019ve been the most physically imposing team of the postseason but have seen a drop-off across the board offensively. <\/p>\n
Here\u2019s how their stats have regressed from the regular season to the postseason: <\/p>\n
Offensive rating, 103.6 -> 97.7<\/p>\n
Effective field-goal ,tage, 50.2 per cent ->46.5 per cent<\/p>\n
Offensive rebounding, 29.0 per cent -> 25.6 per cent<\/p>\n
Made threes per game, 9.4 ->7.9<\/p>\n
Phoenix didn\u2019t have a single player finish inside the Top 12 in scoring and rely on sound ball movement to get buckets. <\/p>\n
How both teams address their weaknesses will be the storyline of these Finals. <\/p>\n
The reality is, both teams haven\u2019t demonstrated enough during the postseason to be declared a surefire favourite. <\/p>\n
FanDuel doesn\u2019t currently offer an over\/under market for total games but at +190 for six and +180 for seven, they are implying this will be a long series. <\/p>\n
I personally won\u2019t be betting a side but if forced to put a stamp on it, I like the pedigree Las Vegas has in this spot. <\/p>\n
I\u2019d pick the Aces to win in 7. <\/p>\n
As for bets ahead of tonight, here\u2019s one for Game 1 and another for the series. <\/p>\n
Kahleah Copper under 16.5 points (-132)<\/p>\n
Las Vegas hasn\u2019t been great defensively, but that doesn\u2019t mean they\u2019re incapable as a team. <\/p>\n
I\u2019m confident that end of the court will be coach Hammon\u2019s priority in Game 1, and I see Copper as the player to target. <\/p>\n
With Wilson locking down the post, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray have the grace to be aggressive on the perimeter and keep Phoenix\u2019s key guard threat under wraps.<\/p>\n
Copper\u2019s track record against the Aces and her recent postseason play both point to the under. <\/p>\n
In the three regular-season matchups where Wilson was active, Copper\u2019s point totals were 15, 15, and 6. <\/p>\n
Over their seven postseason games, Copper has cleared 16.5 twice. <\/p>\n
While the four-time All-Star has proven herself to be a proficient scorer, she has the lowest usage amongst the Mercury\u2019s big three.<\/p>\n
Considering that all three of their point props sit at 16.5, Copper is the one I\u2019d go after in Game 1.<\/p>\n
Satou Sabally, Most Total Made Threes (+135)<\/p>\n
If you look at the WNBA Finals Series Props tab at FanDuel, you\u2019ll notice that all the markets have a heavy favourite anchoring each category. <\/p>\n
The only one without a minus-money leader is three-pointers. <\/p>\n
Based on her track record over these playoffs, Sabally has a strong case to lead the Finals in threes made. <\/p>\n
Two things jump out regarding her case.<\/p>\n
First off, from an individual standpoint, Sabally has averaged the most three-point makes and attempts during the postseason amongst all players in the Finals.<\/p>\n
Young is her closest competition but sits 1.8 attempts a game behind her. <\/p>\n
Then over the course of the three regular season matchups with Wilson active, Sabally tossed up 19 three-point attempts compared to Young\u2019s 12. <\/p>\n
Even if Young is the more accurate shooter, over the course of a longer series, I like betting on the player set up to take the most attempts. <\/p>\n
The second stat that has my attention is the three-point attempts for both teams in the playoffs. <\/p>\n
Each team has seen their three-point volume drop but Las Vegas has really fallen off a cliff. <\/p>\n
They\u2019re down to 18.5 threes a game after wrapping the regular season at 25.9.<\/p>\n
Phoenix is at 25.0 for the playoffs after sitting at 27.7 over the first 44 games.<\/p>\n
Sabally\u2019s offensive role has expanded during their run, and I\u2019d expect more of the same with Wilson likely shadowing Thomas. <\/p>\n
If she\u2019s given more space, the volume should follow.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The WNBA Finals can be characterized as a battle between two adversaries overcoming adversity. Both franchises and players…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":187660,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[629],"tags":[49,48,82,630,80790],"class_list":["post-187659","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-wnba","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-sports","tag-wnba","tag-wnba-sports-basketball-league-wnba"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/187659","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=187659"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/187659\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/187660"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=187659"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=187659"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=187659"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}