WASHINGTON \u2014 In mid-March, in his most productive offensive game as a rookie, Alex Sarr offered a tantalizing glimpse of the player the Washington Wizards hope he will become.<\/p>\n
Sarr buried 3-pointers, cut to the hoop for dunks and scored a career-high 34 points as he held his own against MVP candidate Nikola Joki\u0107. The Wizards won, 126-123, and on that night, Sarr affirmed why Washington coveted him.<\/p>\n
\u201cHe is good,\u201d Joki\u0107 said afterward<\/a>. \u201cHe shot the ball really well. He was rolling. He was playing off the others really good. So, I think he has a future in the NBA for sure.\u201d<\/p>\n How, exactly, Sarr\u2019s future will play out often ignites spirited debate. Perhaps none of the Wizards\u2019 many prospects elicit more passionate, and more divergent, opinions than Sarr does. The gangly 7-footer receives heightened scrutiny because Washington selected him with the second pick in the 2024 draft and because some of his most worrisome stats \u2014 most notably, his inefficiency as a scorer and his below-average defensive-rebounding rate \u2014 equips naysayers with easy kindling for their arguments.<\/p>\n Sarr\u2019s advocates counter with one of basketball\u2019s maxims: Young centers, especially lanky ones such as Sarr, usually require more time to develop physically than perimeter players. Sarr played his entire rookie season at 19 years old, and despite his strength and weight disadvantages, he nonetheless sank at least 100 3s, blocked at least 100 shots and dished out at least 100 assists. Only three rookies have accomplished that feat since the introduction of the 3-point line during the 1979-80 season. The others? Oklahoma City\u2019s Chet Holmgren and San Antonio\u2019s Victor Wembanyama. Excellent company.<\/p>\n So, what\u2019s the most likely long-term outcome for Sarr? To help assess his strengths, weaknesses and potential, I spoke with five talent evaluators who work in NBA front offices. The Athletic granted them anonymity because teams almost never allow their scouts to speak to news outlets about opposing players. Without granting anonymity, articles such as this one could not exist. Anonymity also allows the scouts to be completely honest, without fear of reprisals.<\/p>\n The scouts acknowledge that, because of his youth and inexperience, Sarr initially was thought of, and still should be thought of, as a long-term developmental project.<\/p>\n Other than that, the opinions vary.<\/p>\n \u201cI would be surprised if he doesn\u2019t take a big leap this year, and that big leap will be being effective on the floor and trying to impact the team outcome as opposed to impacting his individual outcome,\u201d Scout A said.<\/p>\n \u201cThere\u2019s still a lot (of untapped potential) as to what he could be. It was probably a slower start than maybe the general fan would hope for. But I think by the end of the season, he had been put in a position to succeed, and we\u2019re going to see more of that built on this season. We\u2019re going to see it start to pay dividends this season.\u201d<\/p>\n Scout B provided a less optimistic view.<\/p>\n \u201cA big question mark is his shooting,\u201d Scout B said. \u201cIs he a stretch five offensively? But he\u2019s never really shot it well anywhere. He didn\u2019t shoot it well with Overtime Elite. He didn\u2019t shoot it well last year. I don\u2019t think he shot it well abroad. He takes a lot of shots, 3s. He takes kind of casual 3s. I mean, is this guy really a shooter?\u201d<\/p>\n Sarr\u2019s strengths<\/p>\n Wizards officials regard Sarr as a modern NBA big, someone who fits within the same archetype that Holmgren, Wembanyama, Cleveland\u2019s Evan Mobley inhabit: mobile big men who can switch on defense, protect the rim, pass and shoot.<\/p>\n Now let\u2019s be clear, before any false controversy erupts: Wizards officials are not claiming that Sarr is as good a player as Holmgren, Wembanyama and Mobley are.<\/p>\n The Wizards\u2019 argument revolves more around versatility. Holmgren, Wembanyama and Mobley impact games through a wide range of skills, from protecting the rim to switching onto perimeter players to stretching the floor. Per Basketball Reference, only five players last season compiled at least 100 made 3s, blocked at least 100 shots and had 100 assists: Milwaukee\u2019s Brook Lopez (now with the LA Clippers), Memphis\u2019 Jaren Jackson Jr., Indiana\u2019s Myles Turner (now with Milwaukee), Wembanyama and Sarr.<\/p>\n \u201cHe\u2019s a versatile, skilled player,\u201d Wizards general manager Will Dawkins said of Sarr. \u201cHe\u2019ll get more efficient. He will get more physical. He\u2019s grown half an inch. The guy is still growing. He\u2019s further away from being the physical center that everybody, I think, wants more from him. But he\u2019s a skilled basketball player, and he\u2019s only going to get better. And what he did in Year One (in the) league rankings is pretty impressive.\u201d<\/p>\n In May 2024 at the NBA Draft Combine, Sarr measured 6-foot-11 3\/4 without sneakers. Dawkins said that Sarr now stands over 7 feet tall.<\/p>\n Sarr exploited his height last season, finishing eighth in blocks per game, at 1.5<\/a>. \u201cObviously, he has a lot of good tools defensively,\u201d Scout C said. \u201cI think that that\u2019s an aspect of his game, that if he applies himself, he can truly be impactful in.\u201d<\/p>\n Coach Brian Keefe gave Sarr the freedom to switch onto perimeter players, even point guards on occasion, to take advantage of Sarr\u2019s agility and give the young big experience. Sarr\u2019s ability to switch onto players at any position would make the Wizards\u2019 defense more formidable because effective switching schemes limit the number of times defenders have to rotate.<\/p>\n \u201cWe think he can switch one through five,\u201d Keefe said. \u201cI think the numbers bear that out pretty well, too. But we\u2019ll see more of that for him. That\u2019s one of his keys: He\u2019s versatile. He obviously can protect the rim; we know that. But he can also guard on the perimeter. So, it\u2019s nice to have that versatility.\u201d<\/p>\n Keefe added: \u201cHe has some physical gifts. Obviously, his speed, his quickness. There\u2019s also a mentality to it. Not everybody wants to do that. I think he has a defensive mentality. He understands that that\u2019s an important part of his game.\u201d<\/p>\n Here, in this video clip from the Wizards\u2019 136-95 loss to Oklahoma City on Jan. 12, the Thunder isolate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on Sarr. Although Gilgeous-Alexander gains a step on a drive, Sarr recovers enough to block Gilgeous-Alexander\u2019s layup attempt.<\/p>\n \u201cI always thought that his defense was going to be fine,\u201d Scout D said. \u201cHe\u2019s going to figure out a way to block shots. He\u2019s going to figure out a way to impact the ball in pick-and-roll situations at the point of attack.\u201d<\/p>\n Sarr\u2019s agility, speed and comfort handling the basketball enable him to collect defensive rebounds and dribble upcourt to initiate fast breaks. Those abilities stand out among the league\u2019s centers. The ballhandling can be improved, and likely will improve in time, but for now, his natural inclination to push forward with the ball adds to his uniqueness.<\/p>\n While it\u2019s accurate that a good portion of Sarr\u2019s 161 assists came on handoffs last season, he demonstrated impressive court vision for a 7-footer and showed a desire to make plays for others. Scout E said Sarr\u2019s feel for finding open teammates on the perimeter or cutting to the basket was impressive for a 19-year-old.<\/p>\n The following sequence, from the Wizards\u2019 season finale in Miami, illustrates Sarr\u2019s abilities to protect the rim, handle the ball in the open court and pass. Here, Sarr contests a shot by the Heat\u2019s Josh Christopher that Christopher misses, grabs the rebound and speeds ahead. Sarr sends a well-placed bounce pass to teammate Colby Jones for a layup.<\/p>\n Sarr assisted on 13.9 percent of his teammates\u2019 made baskets when he was on the court, according to Cleaning the Glass, an advanced analytics database that excludes stats compiled during garbage time. That assist percentage ranked in the 70th percentile among all NBA bigs, better than highly skilled bigs such as Karl-Anthony Towns, Kristaps Porzi\u0146\u0123is, Jackson and Holmgren.<\/p>\n The best way to describe Sarr\u2019s offensive game at this early stage in his career is to call him a perimeter player with the body of a 7-footer. Sarr relies on finesse and does not play with much force. He appears more comfortable facing the basket rather than playing with his back to it, making him the antithesis of a traditional big. Scout B put it bluntly, saying Sarr has \u201cno post-up game at all.\u201d<\/p>\n Wizards coaches and players encouraged Sarr to launch 3s last season. He attempted 5.1 shots per game from beyond the arc, and Cleaning the Glass, which also excludes heaves at the end of quarters, ranked him in the 72nd percentile among bigs in 3-point-attempt frequency.<\/p>\n In December, he made 45.5 percent of his 3s on 4.9 attempts per game, by far his best shooting month as a rookie. In the March victory in Denver, he made five of his nine attempts from long range, including a key late-game make from the left corner as Joki\u0107 closed on him. The capability is there, and his shooting motion looks sound.<\/p>\n Sarr\u2019s weaknesses<\/p>\n But although his shooting motion looks sound, he struggled to stack strong shooting months together. He finished the season 30.8 percent from 3 \u2014 30.8 percent before the All-Star break and 30.8 percent after the All-Star break.<\/p>\n \u201cI thought he would struggle a little bit more than he did,\u201d Scout D said. \u201cHe showed flashes of being a legit threat as a 3-point shooter. I didn\u2019t quite believe in it as much when he came out of France, so I really had a hard time seeing how he\u2019s going to be able to consistently score in the NBA. Just because of his physique, he\u2019s going to have to be somewhat of a threat as a jump shooter. But for stretches last year, he looked like someone who could be a starter on the good playoff teams in the NBA.<\/p>\n \u201c(The concern) was always for me his offense. Where does his offense eventually land? If the flashes of shooting are real, then he has a pretty good pathway to be an impactful offensive player as well, just be someone who can get a (lot of) 3s and a (lot of) blocks in a season consistently.\u201d<\/p>\n Sarr made only 67.9 percent of his free throws as a rookie. To some, that percentage is either an ominous sign for his entire offensive game or a signal that his free-throw shooting can improve as his stamina improves.<\/p>\n Scouts also worry about his shooting inefficiencies in the paint. He made only 63 percent of his attempts at the rim, according to Cleaning the Glass, placing him in the 23rd percentile among all bigs. Sarr struggles to finish shots through contact against heavier bigs. Considering that he weighed 225 pounds last season, he was lighter than some opposing wings, a larger number of rival forwards and the overwhelming majority of his fellow bigs.<\/p>\n But his low percentage also stems from the manner of his close-range shots. Because he employs the approach of a perimeter player, he tends to take a disproportionate share (compared to other bigs) of shots on the move.<\/p>\n \u201cHe\u2019s got put-the-ball-on-the-floor skills, though \u2026 he shot less than 40 percent for the year,\u201d Scout B said. \u201cThat\u2019s hard to do with his size, so he didn\u2019t finish well. So, the question is finishing. But he does have ballhandling and driving skills. He can make the play off the short roll on the pick-and-roll.\u201d<\/p>\n With Sarr, the issue isn\u2019t always the distances from where he shots. It\u2019s more about the difficulty of his shots and about rarely drawing fouls. According to Cleaning the Glass, he scored 96.1 points per 100 shot attempts, including field-goal attempts and trips to the free-throw line (including fouls in the bonus).<\/p>\n Sarr sat at rock bottom among bigs in points per shot attempt, ranking in the sixth percentile, largely because of his high volume of 3-point attempts and low percentage of makes but also because of his inefficiencies within the paint. Dallas\u2019 Daniel Gafford, on the other hand, who didn\u2019t attempt a single 3-pointer and typically limits his offense to dunks and also excels at drawing fouls, ranked in the 97th percentile. Gafford doesn\u2019t stretch the floor, but he\u2019s efficient offensively. Sarr can stretch the floor, but he\u2019s so inefficient offensively that it raises questions about his feel for the game.<\/p>\n This clip, from the Wizards\u2019 124-90 loss to the Boston Celtics on April 6, shows Sarr driving against Al Horford, ultimately settling for a contested floater on the move with 18 seconds remaining on the shot clock. Sarr misses the shot.<\/p>\n Washington can stomach Sarr\u2019s undisciplined shot diet because the team, still early in its rebuild, has little incentive to win right now. But it must improve in time.<\/p>\n That harkens back to one of his biggest weaknesses: his need to add strength. His brother, Olivier Sarr, who is six years older<\/a> and is now a player within the Raptors\u2019 organization, stands 6-foot-10 and weighs 240 pounds, so Wizards officials think Alex Sarr has the capability to add at least some muscle. Again, lanky centers tend to need time to develop physically. For now, though, his reliance on finesse contributes to his inefficiencies.<\/p>\n His lack of strength also hampers him on defense.<\/p>\n