The usual health checks on the U.S. economy have been disabled during the government shutdown, leaving analysts to comb over private data for clues. What they\u2019re seeing, at least according to Moody\u2019s, isn\u2019t great. <\/p>\n
Markets are climbing confidently despite the fact that last week concluded without the usual jobs data. Releases by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) are often key insights into the future trajectory of the economy, but investors are taking the optimistic view in the absence of any bad news. <\/p>\n
But Moody\u2019s is warning that private reporting paints a less rosy picture, describing role additions to the jobs market as \u201cpaltry.\u201d Everyone from Wall Street to the Federal Reserve knows America\u2019s labor market is weakening\u2014adding just 22,000 jobs according to the BLS\u2019s latest release<\/a> for August\u2014but are unsure by how much. <\/p>\n Moody\u2019s chief economist Mark Zandi wrote in a note over the weekend that data from Revelio Labs, which scrapes info from professional networking sites like LinkedIn<\/a> to estimate jobs growth, shows that employment increased by some 60,000 roles in September. This, he added, was \u201calmost entirely in the education and health care sector.\u201d<\/p>\n The positions aren\u2019t just exclusive to certain sectors, he added, but regions: \u201cAlso of note, the job growth last month was almost exclusively in California, New York, and Massachusetts\u201d\u2014three of the top five states in terms of GDP per capita<\/a>.<\/p>\n Zandi also referenced data from payroll giant ADP<\/a>, which found private jobs fell 32,000 last month. While Zandi said Revelio overestimates the good news, he said ADP understates the bad \u201cas government employment surely also fell in the month given the ongoing DOGE-related cuts. ADP\u2019s data are based on the payroll records it processes for many companies.\u201d<\/p>\n He continued: \u201cThe bulk of the job gains in the ADP numbers were also in health care, and only very large companies, with over 500 employees, added to payrolls. Smaller companies are getting hit hardest by the tariffs and restrictive immigration policies.<\/p>\n \u201cAveraging the Revelio and ADP employment estimates for September suggests that there was essentially no job growth during the month,\u201d the economist concluded, also referencing the Conference Board\u2019s recent reporting that consumers are finding it increasingly difficult to find positions. This data showed confidence hasn\u2019t been so low since the end of the pandemic, and added that \u201cthere\u2019s no better predictor of changes in unemployment, which thus likely rose again in September.\u201d<\/p>\n