{"id":202879,"date":"2025-10-10T14:46:11","date_gmt":"2025-10-10T14:46:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/202879\/"},"modified":"2025-10-10T14:46:11","modified_gmt":"2025-10-10T14:46:11","slug":"the-nfls-mvp-race-is-wide-open","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/202879\/","title":{"rendered":"The NFL\u2019s MVP Race Is Wide Open"},"content":{"rendered":"

NFL<\/a>NFL<\/a>Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes have the best odds after five games. But which other quarterbacks can make a serious case that they deserve the league\u2019s top individual award?\"\"Getty Images\/Ringer illustration\"\"<\/a>By Diante Lee<\/a>Oct. 10, 2:39 pm UTC \u2022 12 min<\/p>\n

After the first five weeks of action, the early race for 2025 NFL MVP seems as wide open as it\u2019s been in any year.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s plenty of time for the season to sort itself out, and the league schedule is back-loaded, so several key matchups will happen around the winter holidays. That said, there are several quarterbacks, some of whom usually wouldn\u2019t be conventional candidates, who have a decent chance of getting votes\u2014if not winning the award outright. We haven\u2019t typically needed much guesswork to predict which players will receive votes at season\u2019s end. In fact, there have been only a few clear and consistent qualifications<\/a> to win the honor\u2014be the most efficient quarterback, win at least 70 percent of your games, and lead your team to the no. 1 or 2 seed in your conference. Recently, the award has gone to the most physically gifted quarterbacks from the best teams: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and (Packers-era, pre\u2013age cliff) Aaron Rodgers, who have combined to win the past seven MVPs.<\/p>\n

But as passing games have become more efficient and the median level of quarterback play rises across the league, we have to make space in the MVP discourse for passers who produce big numbers and win games but aren\u2019t necessarily unanimously considered to be elite. Those players have certainly been making their case nearly a third of the way through the 2025 season; a number of one-loss teams have been led by surprisingly hot quarterbacks, like the Colts with Daniel Jones, the Lions with Jared Goff, and the Buccaneers with Baker Mayfield. If we consider two-loss teams that are trending upward, the MVP field opens considerably to include Seattle\u2019s Sam Darnold, Washington\u2019s Jayden Daniels, Green Bay\u2019s Jordan Love, the Rams\u2019 Matthew Stafford, and New England\u2019s Drake Maye.\u00a0<\/p>\n

We\u2019re seeing those quarterbacks outside that exclusive top tier of performers\u2014such as Brock Purdy with the 2023 49ers and Goff last season\u2014win more often in the regular season. It’s a steep climb from \u201csurprisingly good\u201d to \u201clegitimate MVP candidate,\u201d though, and the respective MVP cases for those two QBs were hurt by factors that aren\u2019t usually held against Mahomes or Jackson. Running back Christian McCaffrey (and head coach Kyle Shanahan) received the bulk of the credit for San Francisco\u2019s offensive efficiency two years ago, while Detroit\u2019s coaching, scheme, and roster were seen as propping Goff up last season. In a vacuum, there\u2019s nothing wrong with noting that an offense is relying on forces other than the sole influence of a quarterback, but that kind of hand-waving can serve as a glass ceiling for less athletically gifted passers.<\/p>\n

Jackson, a recent MVP winner and perennial favorite, is currently sidelined with a hamstring injury. Mahomes (along with Allen) currently has the best odds to win the MVP award, according to FanDuel, but the Chiefs are scuffling at the start of the year. So Allen, last season\u2019s MVP, seems like the only conventional candidate certain to finish among the top three. I\u2019m taking stock of this wide-open MVP race and ranking the field beyond Allen and Mahomes according to how likely I believe they are to meet the MVP criteria by season\u2019s end. All lines are from FanDuel.\u00a0<\/p>\n

1. Jordan Love (+1400)<\/p>\n

Love is tied for the fourth-best MVP odds\u2014likely in part because of the Packers\u2019 push toward becoming a legitimate Super Bowl contender and in part because he\u2019s been playing better than ever in the pocket, with the stats to back it up.<\/p>\n

Through five weeks, the Packers have generated 0.24 EPA per dropback. That ranks in the 91st percentile for all offenses since 2015, and it\u2019s the best the Packers have been since Rodgers won MVP in 2020 (when he had a blistering 0.45 EPA per dropback, the best the NFL has seen in the past decade). Love has been efficient in general, but his decision-making on third down and in the red zone has been the most impressive development in his third season as Green Bay\u2019s starter. He\u2019s remained calm in high-leverage situations, and the Packers have largely done an excellent job of keeping him clean in the pocket. Love is second in yards per attempt on third down (just behind Indianapolis and Jones), and his passer rating in the red zone ranks sixth.<\/p>\n

The Packers still have five divisional games left, but their schedule isn\u2019t shaping up to be as difficult as those of some of the other quarterbacks on our list. As long as his defense and supporting cast stay healthy, the Packers should win 70 percent of their games, and Love should have enough production to make a legitimate run at MVP.<\/p>\n

2. Jared Goff (+1400)<\/p>\n

If you\u2019re going to be taken seriously as an unconventional MVP candidate (and especially if you\u2019re a veteran quarterback), you need to have at least broken into the MVP conversation in recent years. Goff did that in 2024, finishing fifth overall<\/a> in voting after a 4,629-yard, 37-touchdown season in which Detroit won 15 games and finished second in total offense. Goff wasn\u2019t the only contributing force for the Lions, who boasted a stellar offensive line and dynamic run game, but his efficiency as a passer helped mask the impact of injuries to the Detroit defense. Still, his MVP candidacy seemed like it was more or less a nod to his execution of the offense that former coordinator Ben Johnson had designed.<\/p>\n

This year, Johnson\u2019s no longer in his headset, and the general assumption before the season started was that Goff would struggle to maintain his excellent form without his former offensive coordinator pulling the strings. In the first five weeks of the season, though, Goff has produced career-high marks across the board. His passer rating (120.7), completion rate (75 percent), and touchdown-to-interception ratio (6:1) are the highest he\u2019s had since he\u2019s been in the league\u2014and he\u2019s doing it behind a worse offensive line than he had last year. If he keeps it up and Detroit wins 12 or more games again, I expect Goff to receive much more respect for his individual contributions this year.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Week 6 Preview: Chiefs-Lions, the Bears\u2019 Fail Mary Rematch, Flacco\u2019s In, Kyler\u2019s Hurt, and the Rejuvenated Jaguars<\/p>\n

Week 6 Preview: Chiefs-Lions, the Bears\u2019 Fail Mary Rematch, Flacco\u2019s In, Kyler\u2019s Hurt, and the Rejuvenated Jaguars<\/p>\n

NFL Week 6: Chiefs-Lions, the Bears\u2019 Fail Mary Rematch, and More<\/p>\n

Week 6: The Bears\u2019 Fail Mary Rematch and More<\/p>\n

<\/a>\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Week 6 Preview: Chiefs-Lions, the Bears\u2019 Fail Mary Rematch, Flacco\u2019s In, Kyler\u2019s Hurt, and the Rejuvenated Jaguars<\/p>\n

Week 6 Preview: Chiefs-Lions, the Bears\u2019 Fail Mary Rematch, Flacco\u2019s In, Kyler\u2019s Hurt, and the Rejuvenated Jaguars<\/p>\n

NFL Week 6: Chiefs-Lions, the Bears\u2019 Fail Mary Rematch, and More<\/p>\n

Week 6: The Bears\u2019 Fail Mary Rematch and More<\/p>\n

<\/a>\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Week 6 Preview: Chiefs-Lions, the Bears\u2019 Fail Mary Rematch, Flacco\u2019s In, Kyler\u2019s Hurt, and the Rejuvenated Jaguars<\/p>\n

Week 6 Preview: Chiefs-Lions, the Bears\u2019 Fail Mary Rematch, Flacco\u2019s In, Kyler\u2019s Hurt, and the Rejuvenated Jaguars<\/p>\n

NFL Week 6: Chiefs-Lions, the Bears\u2019 Fail Mary Rematch, and More<\/p>\n

Week 6: The Bears\u2019 Fail Mary Rematch and More<\/p>\n

<\/a>3. Matthew Stafford (+1400)<\/p>\n

The MVP award is one way to tell the story of what happened in a given season. Still, it can be difficult for voters to exclude what\u2019s happened across multiple seasons from consideration, especially when the margins are as close as they could be this year. Just last season, we saw Allen win MVP (in large part) not only because he\u2019d been excellent in 2024, but also because enough voters seemed to believe it was his time after he didn\u2019t win in previous years.\u00a0<\/p>\n

I think that the same could be true for Stafford this year. While he was statistically better to start the 2021 season (his best year in Los Angeles) than he\u2019s been through the first five weeks of 2025, he\u2019s building an MVP case. I think that the uncertainty about his future and his perseverance through his back issues<\/a> this summer will be part of a compelling narrative, especially if he can get through the season healthy and lead the Rams to\u00a0 the NFC West title.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s less star power around Stafford in Los Angeles now than in 2021, and I don\u2019t expect receiver Puka Nacua\u2019s impressive production to take away from Stafford\u2019s accolades in the way that former teammate Cooper Kupp did a few years ago, when he won the receiving triple crown. Stafford has built a Hall of Fame\u2013worthy r\u00e9sum\u00e9, and winning an MVP on his way out of the league would cement his case for a gold jacket. He might deserve to win strictly on the merits of this season, but his MVP argument is bolstered by the underlying narrative driving his potential last ride for the Rams.<\/p>\n

4. Jayden Daniels (+3300)<\/p>\n

Sometimes I think I might be the only person left on the Jayden Daniels bandwagon outside of the die-hard Commanders fans. There\u2019s been an overwhelming expectation that Daniels and Washington\u2019s offense would suffer from significant regression in 2025 after winning so many close games in 2024 thanks to Daniels\u2019s fourth-quarter heroics and the team\u2019s unprecedented success with fourth-down conversions during his rookie season.<\/p>\n

When Daniels has played this season, though, this offense has been just fine. Washington\u2019s success rate in the passing game is 48 percent when he\u2019s been on the field, ranking just outside the top 10, while Washington\u2019s run game has been nearly unstoppable because Daniels\u2019s speed poses a constant threat to opposing defenses.<\/p>\n

A potential obstacle in his\u00a0 MVP path is how tough Washington\u2019s schedule will be the rest of the way. The Commanders still have six games against teams that made the playoffs last year, plus a game against one of this year\u2019s best defenses in the Seahawks. If Daniels can lead the Commanders to wins against his toughest opponents, he can put together an MVP case similar to Jackson\u2019s in 2023\u2014when his performances with both his arms and legs in key games separated him from his peers.<\/p>\n

5. Baker Mayfield (+800)<\/p>\n

Mayfield picked up a couple of fifth-place votes on MVP ballots last year, a sign that his play has garnered attention and respect from a portion of the national media. Even more importantly, Mayfield has been steadily building an MVP case by performing at a high level over the past three seasons even though he\u2019s had a new offensive coordinator each year in Tampa.<\/p>\n

Like Goff, Mayfield is also playing some of the best football of his life right now. He\u2019s been without his starting tackles and several receivers because of injuries, leaving him to create more plays on his own. He\u2019s delivered as a scrambler and has been excellent at extending plays from the pocket to push the ball downfield. His aggression as a passer has been the key reason that Tampa Bay has scored at will over the first five weeks of the season, and he\u2019s established immediate chemistry with rookie receiver Emeka Egbuka.<\/p>\n

In spite of what Mayfield has done well and his current MVP odds, which place him behind only Allen and Mahomes, he\u2019s lower on my list because his film doesn\u2019t always support the production. Mayfield has managed to avoid several sacks and has largely been productive when he\u2019s been pressured, but that\u2019s not something he\u2019s been able to rely on throughout his career. If his creativity in the pocket regresses to the mean at all, I worry that he\u2019ll begin to make the kinds of mistakes that will cost him and the Bucs in the close games they\u2019re tending to find themselves in this year.<\/p>\n

6. Sam Darnold (+5000)<\/p>\n

Sometimes, a quarterback\u2019s reputation can be just as important to the MVP race as their actual performance on the field. It’s hard for a quarterback to rub off the stink that comes with being labeled a bust, even if, like Darnold, they\u2019ve bounced back later on in their careers.<\/p>\n

Darnold will be fighting skepticism for the rest of his career, even though he just had a strong season with the Vikings in 2024. He\u2019s built on that success to start this year with the Seahawks, posting the best completion rate and passer rating he\u2019s ever had through the first five weeks of a season. His play right now reminds me of Purdy\u2019s in 2023\u2014he\u2019s working within the structure of the offense but taking aggressive chances whenever he can.<\/p>\n

The question now is whether it will last. While Darnold has been objectively impressive, we have plenty of data points from the first seven years of his career that indicate he\u2019ll have trouble maintaining this pace for 17 games, especially if the Seahawks offense is unbalanced. Seattle has had a few explosive runs this year, but it struggles to find consistent yardage on the ground. That could eventually put Darnold into a position similar to what we witnessed last year in Minnesota, where he was asked to carry the overwhelming load for his offense on a down-to-down basis.\u00a0<\/p>\n

I worry that as the season wears on, we\u2019ll see less of the efficient but aggressive Darnold and more of the reckless version\u2014and that\u2019ll hurt his MVP case if he starts turning the ball over.<\/p>\n

7. Daniel Jones (+2700)<\/p>\n

If you\u2019re a fan who closely tracks success rate and EPA, it\u2019s probably hard to conceive of why Colts quarterback Daniel Jones falls outside the top five in this exercise. Ultimately, like Darnold, Jones is a victim of his own reputation. But the biggest thing that could work against Jones is that he\u2019s playing in an offense that features an elite running back. Jonathan Taylor is leading the league in carries, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns through five weeks, and Indianapolis\u2019s tape reveals that Taylor shoulders a heavier burden than Jones in this offensive scheme. Indianapolis\u2019s current rushing success rate is better than Philadelphia\u2019s from last season, and I expect Indianapolis to keep leaning on Taylor\u2019s legs on early downs. Taylor, at +10,000, is currently tied with Nacua for the best odds of a non-QB to win MVP.<\/p>\n

Where Jones has excelled is in punishing defenses when they blitz and taking downfield shots on play-action dropbacks, two things that are influenced by how focused defenses are on stopping Taylor on the ground. If Jones\u2019s receivers turn more of these downfield passes into touchdowns, his efficiency numbers may be too good to ignore. But without that, I doubt that he\u2019ll put up the necessary volume as a passer to convince voters he\u2019s a serious MVP candidate.\u00a0<\/p>\n

8. Drake Maye (+3300)<\/p>\n

Patriots quarterback Drake Maye has been another major surprise this season. After a win against Buffalo in prime time on Sunday night, it\u2019s hard to argue that Maye hasn\u2019t been one of the 10 best quarterbacks in the NFL through these five weeks. New England\u2019s offense has converted 51 percent of its passes when facing an attempt of third-and-4 or longer (which ranks second only to Green Bay), and that\u2019s thanks in large part to Maye putting on his superhero cape as a passer and scrambler in tough situations.<\/p>\n

Maye is fifth in yards per attempt and sixth in passer rating, so his production is starting to show up in the metrics that voters tend to notice. Ultimately, though, he plays on a team with major talent deficiencies that has enjoyed a pretty soft schedule thus far, outside of the Buffalo game.\u00a0<\/p>\n

It\u2019s hard to see this team winning 11 or more games and claiming one of the top seeds in the conference, things a player typically needs to secure the league\u2019s top award, which makes me believe that we\u2019re a year or two away from a legitimate MVP campaign for the budding star.<\/p>\n

Honorable Mentions: Dak Prescott (+1700) and Justin Herbert (+2000)<\/p>\n

While I wouldn\u2019t totally cast aside the MVP chances of Prescott and Herbert, you know that something must be wrong with their respective teams if a pair of star quarterbacks finds themselves behind the likes of Jones, Mayfield, and Darnold on a list like this. For both quarterbacks, what\u2019s ailing their teams (and their MVP chances) is totally out of their control.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Prescott is saddled with what might be the NFL\u2019s worst defense this season; the Cowboys defense is on pace to be one of the worst we\u2019ve seen in the past 10 years and still has to face good offenses in games against the Commanders (twice), the Lions, and the Chiefs. Prescott, though, has been incredible, and he could garner some MVP attention like Joe Burrow did on his 9-8 team last year. But don\u2019t expect much real buzz for Prescott, who finished second in the MVP race in 2023, unless he can orchestrate several game-winning drives this year.<\/p>\n

The challenge to Herbert\u2019s MVP case stems from underlying issues with Los Angeles\u2019s offense. The Chargers\u2019 total rushing success rate ranks seventh in the NFL, which gives the impression that it\u2019s been consistently efficient. But when you control for runs on third down (as the offense is more likely to run the ball in short-yardage situations), the efficiency falls off a cliff. Los Angeles\u2019s rushing success rate specifically on first and second downs drops to 18th, and the offense has the sixth-lowest rate of explosive runs. Herbert\u2019s receivers haven\u2019t covered themselves in glory, either, as the Chargers are tied for fourth in the number of drops in the NFL, with nine. Add in the injuries to starting tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, and you have an offense that can\u2019t support its own weight around Herbert, making for an untenable situation for the clearly talented quarterback and a team we still expect to make it to the postseason.<\/p>\n

Right now, neither the Cowboys nor the Chargers comfortably project to win enough games to make these quarterbacks real candidates, and, fairly or not, both quarterbacks are under great scrutiny. No matter the context, the responsibility for any team\u2019s failures will be laid at the quarterback\u2019s feet, which probably indicates that neither will be vying for an MVP this year. While these two have both been playing well, predicting an MVP winner isn\u2019t solely done by ranking raw ability or whom you\u2019d draft first for an expansion franchise. Instead, we have to figure out who meets the qualifications demonstrated by decades of voting history.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Diante Lee<\/p>\n

<\/a>Diante Lee joined The Ringer as an NFL writer and podcaster in 2024. Before that, he served as a staff writer at The Athletic, covering the NFL and college football. He currently coaches at the high school level in his hometown of San Diego.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"NFLNFLJosh Allen and Patrick Mahomes have the best odds after five games. But which other quarterbacks can make…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":202880,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[436],"tags":[49,48,514,82],"class_list":["post-202879","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nfl","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-nfl","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/202879","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=202879"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/202879\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/202880"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=202879"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=202879"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=202879"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}