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The professional oddsmakers have an uncanny ability to project outcomes. If not, they would have real jobs. So the fact that they\u2019ve set the over\/under for the Pacers\u2019 win total in the upcoming season at 38.5 qualifies as foreboding news for the team and its fans.<\/p>\n
Some have even gone so far as to recommend the Pacers tank to get into the draft lottery and add another significant player while awaiting the return of their fallen star, Tyrese Haliburton. Others merely believe they have no shot at qualifying for the playoffs. Zach Lowe, host of a widely heard NBA podcast, responded to the notion the Pacers could win about half their games by saying, \u201cI don\u2019t see it at all. I think they\u2019ll be way worse than that.\u201d<\/p>\n
You can\u2019t deny the logic behind the sentiment. Tyrese Haliburton\u2014an Olympian, two-time All-Star and third-team all-NBA selection\u2014averaged 18.2 points, had an insane assist-to-turnover ratio of 5.8-to-1 and made a mind-bending number of dramatic clutch shots last season. He appeared on his way to writing another chapter in his thrilling postseason memoir in Game 7 of the Finals at Oklahoma City by hitting three 3-point attempts in the opening five minutes before collapsing with a torn Achilles two minutes later.<\/p>\n
He\u2019s expected to miss the entire season. Add the loss of starting center Myles Turner, who took Milwaukee\u2019s bucks in free agency, and pessimism qualifies as rational.<\/p>\n
But remember this: The Pacers have dunked on the Vegas brains for three seasons running, surpassing preseason projections by an average of 7.5 wins. Their over\/under was 46.5 victories last season. But they won 50 despite an onslaught of early-season injuries and a lengthy scramble for a suitable backup center. It was 38.5 two seasons ago. They won 47. It was 24.5 three years ago. They won 35.<\/p>\n
\u2018Written us off\u2019<\/p>\n
All this would seem to indicate that if they can surpass expectations in their average manner, they\u2019ll win about 46 games and reach the playoffs once again. Given their recent history and the legitimate possibilities for individual improvement within the roster, their optimism deserves to be taken at least as seriously as outsider pessimism.<\/p>\n
\u201cPer usual, a lot of people have written us off because of Tyrese,\u201d guard Aaron Nesmith said on the eve of training camp. \u201cBut we\u2019re used to proving people wrong and shocking people, so it\u2019s going to be nothing new this year.\u201d<\/p>\n
Nesmith, the Pacers\u2019 most accurate shooter last season, shot straight with that comment. The Pacers still have balance and depth, their culture and chemistry remain intact, and they have a core of young players eager for expanded job descriptions.<\/p>\n
They also have a mad scientist coach in Rick Carlisle with a proven knack for slipping into the lab and conducting successful chemistry experiments. Sure, he wishes he had Haliburton back this season. But he\u2019s not wringing his hands over it.<\/p>\n
\u201cTy is such an unusually important player to us on the one hand,\u201d Carlisle said. \u201cOn the other hand, the core principles will be the same. Most of it begins with fast, hard play. We\u2019ll make the adjustments we need to make.\u201d<\/p>\n
The players unanimously echo that sentiment. Haliburton included.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe standard is the standard,\u201d he said. \u201cIt doesn\u2019t matter if I suit up or not. We\u2019ve created a culture here that matters. It matters to me, it matters to a lot of \u2026 Indiana fans, it matters to every guy in that locker room. When you have something special like that, you have to cherish that and take care of that. The fact I\u2019m not playing doesn\u2019t change anything.\u201d<\/p>\n
Shifting roles<\/p>\n
His absence might not change anything in the categories of standards and culture, but it certainly affects roles\u2014starting with Andrew Nembhard, who slides from off guard to point guard. Carlisle often reminds that \u201cdynamic change\u201d is the norm in the NBA, but Nembhard\u2019s transfer doesn\u2019t qualify as one. Point guard is his natural position, and he\u2019s already played it often as a Pacer, either when Haliburton was resting or sitting out a game. He\u2019s started there 43 times over the past three seasons and averaged 13 points and 6.8 assists in those games.<\/p>\n
He can reasonably be expected to exceed those numbers in the upcoming season given his steady improvement, and he\u2019s proven himself capable of big moments. He had 31 points and 13 rebounds in one Haliburton-less game as a rookie against Golden State. More relevantly, he had 32 points and nine assists in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference finals against Boston two seasons ago and 24 points and 10 rebounds in Game 4.<\/p>\n
He\u2019ll likely bring a slightly slower pace than Haliburton in transition but will go one-on-one less often and get into the paint more often to create scoring opportunities for teammates. His greatest challenge will be to exhibit more leadership. Quiet by nature, he\u2019ll need to train his vocal cords as much as any other body part.<\/p>\n
\u201cI\u2019m trying to grow that part of my game and find my voice and insert things when I can,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Nembhard usually defended the opponent\u2019s best backcourt scorer last season when paired with Haliburton but will need relief in that area now. In all areas, in fact, because, as Carlisle says, \u201cWe can\u2019t play the guy into oblivion.\u201d<\/p>\n
It won\u2019t be as simple as Nembhard replacing Haliburton and everyone else carrying on as before. There will be a communal transformation, with several players taking on slightly enhanced roles. The silver lining of Haliburton\u2019s absence is that it creates a ripple effect of opportunity for others on the roster. They are embracing that. The success of the season will hinge on how well they exploit it.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s always been about team; it\u2019s never been about one person,\u201d said forward Pascal Siakam. \u201cWe all have to do it collectively. [The concept of] a No. 1 option is kind of played out. You have to be a team to be able to win.\u201d<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Sports_Nembhard_AP_101025-300x200.jpg\")
Andrew Nembhard (2) must set the pace for Indiana\u2019s high-octane offense. Will he also draw the toughest assignment on defense? (AP Photo\/AJ Mast)<\/p>\n
Filling the gaps<\/p>\n
For rest and playmaking, relief will come from backup point guard T.J. McConnell, who at 33 is both the oldest and most energetic team member. One could, in fact, make the argument that McConnell should be starting instead of or alongside Nembhard. Consider that for every 36 minutes of playing time last season, McConnell averaged 18.3 points on 52% shooting, 8.9 assists, 4.9 rebounds, 2.1 steals and 2.5 turnovers. Nembhard over the same time frame averaged 12.5 points on 46% shooting, 6.2 assists, 4.1 rebounds, 1.5 steals and 2.1 turnovers. McConnell even shot better from 3-point range: .306 to .291.<\/p>\n
Quarterbacking help also will come from Siakam. He was last season\u2019s leading scorer and most likely will be this season\u2019s as well, but he can initiate offense while drawing double-teams. He sounded a bit offended when Carlisle asked him before training camp began if he\u2019s ever had a triple-double. He\u2019s had six. In other words, he\u2019s willing to pass often enough to achieve a double-figure assist total.<\/p>\n
Bennedict Mathurin has the most to prove and the most to gain this season. The former lottery pick enters his fourth NBA season with a starting job that\u2019s his to lose and therefore a great breakout opportunity in a contract year. He\u2019s a proven scorer (16.1 points last season) with enough athleticism and toughness to defend well. He\u2019ll need to continue the improvement he\u2019s shown in curbing his one-on-one appetite to better fit Carlisle\u2019s system of unselfishness and ball movement, but his hunger is constant.<\/p>\n
\u201cI knew exactly what I have to work on,\u201d he said of his offseason. \u201cI did that and more. I feel like I\u2019m more than ready for the season.\u201d<\/p>\n
Haliburton and Turner combined to average 34.2 points last season, no small amount of points to be replaced. Plenty of eager job candidates await the opportunity to fill that gap, but start with Nesmith. If anyone was shortchanged in last season\u2019s offense, it was the guy who joined the exclusive 50-40-90 club by hitting 51% of his field goal attempts, 43% of his 3-pointers and 91% of his foul shots. He averaged just 12 points on 8.4 field goal attempts per game, however, which seems insufficient quantity given the quality of his accuracy.<\/p>\n
The Pacers go deeper than that, however. Obi Toppin and Ben Sheppard are proven and dependable, and former lottery pick Jarace Walker and 20-year-old Johnny Furphy are intriguing and improving. Furphy, for one, was often mentioned by teammates as the most improved from last season.<\/p>\n
Missing Turner<\/p>\n
The name least often mentioned has been Turner, who underperformed by hitting just 31% of his field goal attempts and averaging just 3.6 rebounds over the final five games of the Finals, then practically ghosted the franchise on his way out of town after a 10-year relationship. Pages turn quickly in the NBA, and bygones become bye-bye-gones.<\/p>\n
Turner\u2019s former teammates don\u2019t speak poorly of him, but they don\u2019t speak of him at all unless asked. And then their responses qualify as indifferent. While his scoring (15.6) and 3-point shooting (.396) leave a gap to fill, his rebounding won\u2019t, and that\u2019s where the Pacers most need dynamic change. They ranked third-to-last in the league in overall rebounding last season and second-to-last in offensive rebounding. That was particularly impactful, because they ranked third in field goal percentage but 17th in field goal attempts. They simply didn\u2019t take sufficient advantage of their shooting prowess by getting more second and third shots. And they gave up too many of them on defense.<\/p>\n
Isaiah Jackson, the early favorite to start at center, and James Wiseman and Tony Bradley all are significantly better rebounders than Turner. Newly acquired Jay Huff is not but was brought in to provide a Turner-like 3-point threat and space the half-court offense. Just a few more rebounds per game, particularly on the offensive end, could make a major difference over the course of the season.<\/p>\n
Bottom line, the Pacers should be an improved defensive and rebounding team this season\u2014tougher, more physical. They have uncertainties on offense, particularly beyond the 3-point line, but also have players fully capable of scoring more when asked. Last season\u2019s run to Game 7 in Oklahoma City provided confidence but also left them hungry. They still have that \u201cwritten off\u201d feeling of wanting to defy their doubters.<\/p>\n
It doesn\u2019t seem wise to bet against them.\u2022<\/p>\n
__________<\/p>\n
Montieth, an Indianapolis native, is a longtime newspaper reporter and freelance writer. He is the author of three books: \u201cPassion Play: Coach Gene Keady and the Purdue Boilermakers,\u201d \u201cReborn: The Pacers and the Return of Pro Basketball to Indianapolis,\u201d and \u201cExtra Innings: My Life in Baseball,\u201d with former Indianapolis Indians President Max Schumacher.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The professional oddsmakers have an uncanny ability to project outcomes. If not, they would have real jobs. So…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":203350,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[434],"tags":[49,48,459,82],"class_list":{"0":"post-203349","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-nba","8":"tag-ca","9":"tag-canada","10":"tag-nba","11":"tag-sports"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/203349","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=203349"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/203349\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/203350"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=203349"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=203349"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=203349"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}