Read Also<\/p>\n
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Prairie spring wheat looks like a bumper crop<\/p>\n
Canada will likely set a new record for spring wheat yields this year, topping the previous mark of 54.1 bushels\/acre \u2013 set in 2020 <\/p>\n
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\u201cWe have lots of guys in the 30s and 40s and a couple of guys in the 50s,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
All the growers he has spoken to say they were \u201cpleasantly surprised\u201d with yields this year.<\/p>\n
Consequently, the production number will likely come in higher than Agriculture Canada\u2019s 365,000 tonne estimate.<\/p>\n
Global flax production set a record this year, according to a UkrAgroConsult article.<\/p>\n
It reports that production is up 21 percent in Russia, 26 percent in Kazakhstan and 27 percent in Canada.<\/p>\n
Russian farmers produced 1.63 million tonnes of the commodity, Kazakhstan\u2019s growers chipped in another 810,000 tonnes and Canada\u2019s producers contributed 328,000 tonnes, according to the UkrAgroConsult story.<\/p>\n
That is a lower estimate than Statistics Canada is forecasting.<\/p>\n
Russia will be a big player in China, but not the European Union. Russian flax faces a 20 per cent tariff in the EU market, which rises to 50 per cent at the start of 2026.<\/p>\n
That opens the door to Kazakhstan expanding sales in the EU.<\/p>\n
\u201cKazakhstan is going to (provide) some stiff competition going forward,\u201d said Fehr.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe EU likes their stuff. They like to (buy) from there, and logistically it makes sense as well.\u201d<\/p>\n
However, he has heard from some European contacts that there are quality issues with Kazakhstan\u2019s yellow or golden flax. As well, there are reports that an early snowfall could be making matters worse.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere might be some opportunity for some (Canadian) yellow flax to go for export there, but nothing we\u2019ve seen come to the table here yet,\u201d said Fehr.<\/p>\n
Russia recently introduced a 10 per cent export tax on flax. It had previously been one of the few Russian crops that did not have a tax.<\/p>\n
Analysts believe the tax was introduced to support the domestic crush sector. ASVA is building a new flax processing plant in the Rostov region of Russia that will be capable of processing 148,500 tonnes of the oilseed per year.<\/p>\n
Fehr said Russia\u2019s export tax is \u201ca bit of a silver lining\u201d for Canada because it will make Canadian flax more competitive in the Chinese market.<\/p>\n
\u201cThat creates a little bit of optimism that they might come back to Canada for some,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
However, the United States will remain Canada\u2019s main market for flax, with China and the EU chipping in.<\/p>\n
The Kazakhstan Grain Union is forecasting 680,000 tonnes of exports in 2025-26, a 30 percent increase over last year\u2019s 524,000 tonnes, which was a 74 per cent increase over the previous year.<\/p>\n
The European Union, China and Afghanistan will be the main destinations for Kazakhstan\u2019s flax, according to UkrAgroConsult\u2019s article.<\/p>\n
\u201cGiven the record harvest and favourable logistical conditions, Kazakhstan could partially displace Russia from the Chinese market, where price competition will intensify due to Russian tariffs,\u201d stated the story.<\/p>\n
Fehr said the big Black Sea crops will keep a lid on Canadian prices. Flax prices have been holding up better than competing crops, but any bull run is unlikely due to the global supply glut.<\/p>\n
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