Do you believe playing styles are developing incrementally or cyclically? Will things naturally come back around, or is it more a matter of rock, paper, scissors where one style counters another for a short while, as the current style gets broadly adopted? \u2013 Paul<\/p>\n
I dislike the term \u201ccyclical\u201d for tactics because it implies inevitability. Winter, spring, summer, autumn is a cycle; what happens in football tactics is not. When older ideas are repurposed for the modern age, they come with knowledge of what went before. So, to take an extreme example, when Pep Guardiola started fielding teams in a sort of 3-2-2-3 shape, it wasn\u2019t the W-M used by Herbert Chapman in the late 1920s<\/a>, because in the 100 years since, football has changed enormously: players are fitter, pitches are better, kit is better, we understand pressing, we have data and sophisticated analytical modelling.<\/p>\n Equally, we should be cautious of imagining there is a preferred model \u2013 that one tactical system is necessarily better than another. It\u2019s not that there is a best way to play and everybody is striving to achieve the style closest to that. Everything is contingent: there is only ever a best way to play for a particular set of players in particular circumstances.<\/p>\n That said, there are clearly periods when one style is dominant. The arrival of Rafa Ben\u00edtez and Jos\u00e9 Mourinho to English football in the summer of 2004, for instance, made control the defining attitude of the Premier League. The appointment of Pep Guardiola in 2016 brought his juego de posici\u00f3n to England, which has had a huge impact throughout the divisions, even as he evolved. First, there was the challenge of J\u00fcrgen Klopp, which resulted in Guardiola\u2019s approach and German Gegenpressing moving closer together. Since then, he has inverted full-backs, gone to a back four comprised entirely of central defenders, and had John Stones stepping forward as the signing of Erling Haaland effectively meant the centre-forward no longer functioned as an auxiliary midfielder.<\/p>\n Over the last few months, there has been a radical change<\/a>. There seems a general acceptance, not least from Guardiola himself, that the style he brought to England is no longer effective. Last season he spoke of the likes of Bournemouth and Newcastle playing modern football \u2013 although, in context, he was talking less about having players run more with the ball (as it has been widely interpreted) than about how the crowded fixture list makes it almost impossible to prepare players properly for juego de posici\u00f3n, which requires a different strategic approach for every game. In that sense, the recent shift towards more direct football is less cyclical or incremental than reactive \u2013 a means of dealing with external factors.<\/p>\n More generally, football finds itself not so much in a cycle as in a series of competing dialectics. As the emphasis on maintaining possession grew, central defenders \u2013 at least at elite clubs \u2013 began to be selected less for their defensive qualities than for their ability to pass the ball. That meant less focus on strength or heading ability, leaving them vulnerable against big, powerful centre-forwards. Bring back the big lumbering centre-backs of old, though, and they become susceptible to a well-targeted press. But then, big centre-forwards may not be capable of the constant rapid sprints required to press effectively.<\/p>\n And that\u2019s just one element. We\u2019ve got used to wide forwards who cut infield on to their stronger foot, but as centre-forwards get bigger, better at heading and perhaps less adept at vacating space for a teammate cutting infield, it may be that a preference grows for wide players who do not invert but beat the full-back on the outside to put in outswinging crosses.<\/p>\n There are always wheels within wheels, and that means terms like \u201ccyclical\u201d or \u201cincremental\u201d will always seem reductive.<\/p>\n With summer temperatures in North America consistently hot, will we see a return to the type of World Cup we saw in 1970 and 1982 when oppressive heat reduced the efficacy of pressing? And does this open up the tournament to teams who could pack the pitch with creative No 10s? \u2013 Jonathan<\/p>\n I enjoyed your newsletter in September<\/a> about the new defensive mentality in football, where, as you pointed out, \u201cwe are seeing a more physical game centred on crosses, set plays and giving nothing away.\u201d Do you think we\u2019ll see that at next year\u2019s World Cup too? \u2013 Bethany<\/p>\n skip past newsletter promotion<\/a><\/p>\n Sign up to Soccer with Jonathan Wilson<\/p>\n Jonathan Wilson brings expert analysis on the biggest stories from European soccer<\/p>\n Privacy Notice: Newsletters may contain information about charities, online ads, and content funded by outside parties. If you do not have an account, we will create a guest account for you on theguardian.com<\/a> to send you this newsletter. You can complete full registration at any time. For more information about how we use your data see our Privacy Policy<\/a>. We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and the Google Privacy Policy<\/a> and Terms of Service<\/a> apply.<\/p>\n after newsletter promotion<\/p>\n This pair carry on from the previous question. The temperature definitely will be a factor. Consistent pressing will be very difficult and, as at the Club World Cup, I think we\u2019ll see spells in games in which both teams effectively take a breather. Most sides, I suspect, will sit deep in a low block, which means very little space for No 10s. It may be that what ends up being effective is controlling the pace of games, remaining tight defensively and breaking down opponents through attrition. Set plays are likely to be a major factor.<\/p>\n In 2022 we had Morocco making a surprise run to the semi-finals, and in 2018 Croatia got all the way to the final itself. Which \u201csmaller\u201d nation do you think could make a deep run this time around (I\u2019ve got my eye on Norway)? \u2013 Wally<\/p>\n It\u2019s slightly baffling that the World Cup is such a closed shop, when there have been shocks at the Euros, the Africa Cup of Nations and the Asian Cup. But it does seem that something about the occasion \u2013 or having to play one game more than at confederational tournaments \u2013 makes a big difference. Morocco again and Senegal are probably the likeliest African sides to have a decent run (or DR Congo if they make it through the play-offs). As you say, Norway, who have had some excellent players for a while now, are playing extremely well, and Switzerland have become a very consistent side. But the team I think could really surprise people is Ecuador<\/a>, who have the likes of Mois\u00e9s Caicedo, Willian Pacho and Pervis Estupi\u00f1\u00e1n, and qualified second from Conmebol.<\/p>\n This is an extract from Soccer with Jonathan Wilson, a weekly look from the Guardian US at the game in Europe and beyond. Subscribe for free here.<\/a> Have a question for Jonathan? Email soccerwithjw@theguardian.com<\/a>, and he\u2019ll answer the best in a future edition.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Do you believe playing styles are developing incrementally or cyclically? 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