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Workers secure coal supplies loaded into freight wagons before shipping at the Sibirginsky open pit coal mine operated by OAO Mechel Mining, a unit of OAO Mechel, near Myski, Kemerovo region, Russia, on Tuesday, Feb. 24, 2015. The company, which employs about 70,000 people, is included in a list of about 200 “systemically important” enterprises that Russia said it may support under a government plan to stabilize the economy. Photographer: Andrey Rudakov\/Bloomberg<\/p>\n
\u00a9 2015 Bloomberg Finance LP <\/p>\n
Russia\u2019s coal collapse marks the breaking point of the fossil era. With thermal-coal prices down nearly 80 percent from their 2022 peak and over half of Russia\u2019s producers now losing money, Moscow\u2019s lifeline industry is imploding \u2014 even as renewables, batteries, and storage become the fastest-growing assets in the world economy.<\/p>\n
According to the Financial Times<\/a>, the sector lost Rbs 225 billion (\u2248 US$2.8 billion) in the first seven months of 2025 \u2014 more than double 2024\u2019s total losses \u2014 as exports vanished and subsidies fail. Twenty-three coal companies \u2014 about 13 percent of the national total \u2014 have already shut down, and another 53 are at risk of closing. Once Russia\u2019s fourth-largest export, coal has become its worst-performing industry in more than 30 years.<\/p>\n \u201cThe coal industry is going through its sharpest crisis since the 1990s\u201d\n<\/p>\n Vladimir Korotin, chief executive of Russian Coal, a top-15 producer, told state news agency Interfax earlier this year.<\/p>\n Russian President Vladimir Putin (Photo by MIKHAIL KLIMENTYEV\/RIA NOVOSTI\/AFP via Getty Images) <\/p>\n RIA NOVOSTI\/AFP via Getty Images<\/p>\n President Putin himself has admitted that \u201ccoal producers are having a tough time.\u201d Even Russia\u2019s energy heartland of Kuzbass ended 2024 with a Rbs 70.6 billion deficit, deepening to Rbs 36 billion in the first half of 2025. A government rescue plan signed in May offered only limited tax deferrals and discounted freight tariffs \u2014 not enough to stem the collapse.<\/p>\n The End of Scarcity<\/p>\n Three years ago, fossil producers celebrated<\/a> record profits as Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine sent oil above US$120 per barrel and coal prices to historic highs. Many declared a new age of hydrocarbons. It wasn\u2019t.<\/p>\n Even before the war, global oil demand had plateaued, coal use was declining across advanced economies, and clean-energy investment was already outpacing fossil growth. When the war triggered supply shocks, the market did what markets do: panic, speculate, correct.<\/p>\n According to the World Bank, coal prices are forecast to fall roughly 27 percent in 2025 and again in 2026. The era of scarcity is ending. What comes next is the era of technology \u2014 and it rewards efficiency, not extraction.<\/p>\n That shift is now visible not only in prices but in bankruptcies.<\/p>\n When Subsidies Can\u2019t Save You<\/p>\n Russia\u2019s coal industry has entered free-fall. Once a pillar of post-Soviet industry, it is now losing money faster than the Kremlin can rescue it.<\/p>\n According to The Moscow Times<\/a>, global coal prices have plunged from US$400 per ton in late 2022 to about US$100 per ton by May 2025, while Russian export prices have fallen even lower \u2014 averaging US$69 FOB (Free On Board, meaning at the port before shipping), the weakest since 2020. At those levels, many producers sell below cost, and more than half (53 %) of coal companies are unprofitable, up from 31.5 % two years earlier.<\/p>\n Four of Siberian Coal Energy Company\u2019s ten coal enterprises have already scaled back operations or are facing closure.<\/p>\n \u201cAt current prices, exchange rates, financing costs and logistics, thermal-coal production in Kuzbass is unprofitable across the board,\u201d\n<\/p>\n Roman Golovin, strategy director at Siberian Coal Energy Company.<\/p>\n Pedestrians walk in the snow and past cranes illuminated by street lights at the port of Murmansk, on the eastern shore of Kola Bay, in Murmansk, Russia. Murmansk seaport is one of the largest ice-free ports in Russia, operated by Public Joint Stock Company Murmansk Commercial Seaport, a subsidiary of Open Joint Stock Company Siberian Coal Energy Company. Photographer: Andrey Rudakov\/Bloomberg<\/p>\n \u00a9 2017 Bloomberg Finance LP<\/p>\n The government approved a 178 billion-ruble (\u2248 US$2.2 billion) relief package in May, but losses could reach 300 \u2013 500 billion rubles (US$ 3.7 \u2013 6.2 billion) this year, with sector debt near 1.5 trillion rubles (\u2248 US$18.6 billion).<\/p>\n Meanwhile, the Financial Times reports that the industry had already lost Rbs 225 billion (\u2248 US$2.8 billion) in the first seven months of 2025.<\/p>\n \u201cWages have been cut everywhere, absolutely everywhere in Kuzbass \u2026 they say it\u2019s the crisis: coal isn\u2019t in demand.\u201d\n<\/p>\n Kuzbass miner, Reuters<\/p>\n Together, the two reports paint a stark picture: Russia\u2019s once-booming coal economy is collapsing under sanctions, falling prices, and soaring logistics costs \u2014 a structural breakdown that even subsidies can\u2019t slow.<\/p>\n Russia\u2019s geography and sanctions make adaptation far harder than for exporters like Australia or Indonesia. The result: a fossil-era cautionary tale \u2014 how quickly entire sectors can unravel when markets move faster than politics.<\/p>\n Coal Price Collapse: Global vs. Russian Exports (2022\u20132025)<\/p>\n Russian coal export prices have plummeted faster than global averages since 2022, driven by lost European markets and sanctions \u2014 a snapshot of how fossil economies unravel when markets shift faster than politics. Source: Rosstat, National Credit Ratings<\/p>\n Wedonthavetime.org<\/p>\n Russian coal export prices have plummeted faster than global averages since 2022, driven by lost European markets and sanctions \u2014 a snapshot of how fossil economies unravel when markets shift faster than politics.<\/p>\n A Parallel Story: U.S. Coal Auctions Without Buyers<\/p>\n Donald Trump holds a sign supporting coal during a rally at Mohegan Sun Arena in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania on October 10, 2016. (Photo by DOMINICK REUTER \/ AFP) (Photo by DOMINICK REUTER\/AFP via Getty Images)<\/p>\n AFP via Getty Images<\/p>\n Russia\u2019s implosion is mirrored \u2014 though for different reasons \u2014 in the United States, where the fossil sector is facing structural decline not from sanctions, but from market irrelevance.<\/p>\n In October 2025, a federal coal lease auction in Montana<\/a> attracted just one bid: $186,000 for 167 million tons of coal \u2014 roughly $0.001 per ton, a 99.9 percent collapse in value versus a similar 2012 sale at $1.10 per ton. The Department of the Interior then postponed additional auctions in Wyoming and Utah, citing \u201cmarket conditions.\u201d Analysts read the signal plainly: the market has priced coal out of future portfolios.<\/p>\n \u201cIt tells you that there\u2019s no competition for that coal in the ground, and it\u2019s not worth very much money. It points to the fundamental, structural decline the coal industry is facing \u2014 and that story hasn\u2019t been reversed.\u201d\n<\/p>\n Seth Feaster, Energy Data Analyst at IEEFA (Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis)<\/p>\n The U.S. and Russia are opposite sides of the same transition: one constrained by sanctions and geography, the other by economics and innovation. Both reveal how quickly fossil demand can evaporate once investors price in the future.<\/p>\n The Super-Cycle\u2019s Last Breath<\/p>\n TOPSHOT – Activists from Greenpeace set up a mock-petrol station price board displaying the company’s net profit for 2022, as they demonstrate outside the headquarters of Shell, in London on February 2, 2023, as the British energy company announce their full-year results. – Shell net profit surged to a record $42.3 billion last year, the British energy giant said Thursday, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent oil and gas prices soaring. The post-tax figure was more than double the amount achieved in 2021, the group’s earnings statement revealed. (Photo by Daniel LEAL \/ AFP) (Photo by DANIEL LEAL\/AFP via Getty Images)<\/p>\n AFP via Getty Images<\/p>\n The so-called fossil \u201csuper-cycle\u201d was never the start of a new age \u2014 it was the last gasp of the old.<\/p>\n In 2022, oil majors posted historic windfalls<\/a> as Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine sent global prices soaring. ExxonMobil earned nearly US$56 billion \u2014 the highest profit ever recorded by a U.S. or European oil company \u2014 while Shell reported US$40 billion, its biggest haul in 115 years. Chevron followed with US$36.5 billion, more than double its 2021 earnings.<\/p>\n At the time, many called it a fossil-fuel renaissance \u2014 but the data tells a different story. By 2025, growth had already stalled. The International Energy Agency now projects that global demand for coal, oil, and gas will all peak before 2030, marking the beginning of structural decline rather than resurgence.<\/p>\n The illusion of a fossil revival has unraveled under market realities. What began as a wartime windfall has ended as a transition turning point \u2014 from scarcity and speculation to technology and scale.<\/p>\n Renewables Take Command<\/p>\n Clean energy has just made history \u2014 generating more electricity than coal for the first time ever. According to Ember\u2019s Global Electricity Mid-Year Insights 2025, renewables supplied 34.3 percent of global electricity in the first half of 2025, overtaking coal\u2019s 33.1 percent share \u2014 a moment that marks the beginning of the end for the fossil-fuel era.<\/p>\n Ember<\/p>\n In the first half of 2025, renewable energy hit a record high<\/a> with 5,072 TWh, surpassing coal\u2019s 4,896 TWh for the first time. These aren\u2019t policy targets \u2014 they\u2019re meter readings. Every new unit of global electricity demand is now met primarily by clean energy.<\/p>\n And while renewables dominate growth, zero-carbon nuclear is re-emerging as a stabilizer for low-carbon grids. France, the U.S., and China are investing in small modular reactors (SMRs) \u2014 compact, factory-built systems designed to complement variable renewables. The IEA projects nuclear capacity in advanced economies could grow by around 40 percent by 2050 under current policies.<\/p>\n The Battery Revolution<\/p>\n If Russia\u2019s coal collapse marks the end of one energy era, batteries mark the beginning of the next.<\/p>\n A staff member is looking at the operation data of Nanjing Jiangbei Energy Storage Power Station, a grid-side energy storage power station in a state-level new area, in Nanjing, Jiangsu province, China, on January 15, 2024. The energy storage power station has a total of 88 battery bins and achieves a 100-millisecond charge and discharge response, effectively adapting to the randomness and volatility of new energy. (Photo by Costfoto\/NurPhoto via Getty Images)<\/p>\n NurPhoto via Getty Images<\/p>\n According to an in-depth Financial Times analysis<\/a>, California\u2019s \u201cmega-battery build-out\u201d has transformed its grid, tripling capacity since 2020 to more than 13 GW and redefining how power systems handle peak demand. Cost declines of around 90 % have made storage one of the fastest-evolving assets in energy, and forecasts suggest global battery-storage volumes could increase by two-thirds in 2025 and grow several-fold by 2030.<\/p>\n Batteries are doing for electricity what silos once did for grain: turning abundance into reliability. Together with renewables and nuclear, they form the new backbone of the global energy system \u2014 and a growing threat to fossil fuels.<\/p>\n The Economics of the Future<\/p>\n Professor Lord Nicholas Stern who chairs the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment at the London School gives a press conference at the European Headquarters in Brussels. AFP PHOTO \/ GEORGES GOBET (Photo credit should read GEORGES GOBET\/AFP via Getty Images)<\/p>\n AFP via Getty Images<\/p>\n This change isn\u2019t moral \u2014 it\u2019s mathematical. The fossil economy relied on constrained supply chains and monopoly pricing power; the clean economy scales production and compounds learning.<\/p>\n Lord Nicholas Stern of the London School of Economics puts it bluntly:<\/p>\n \u201cInvestment in climate action is the growth story of the 21st century. High-carbon growth is futile because it ends in self-destruction.\u201d<\/p>\n Solar, wind, and battery storage costs have fallen over 80 % over the past decade. Clean technologies compound; fossil assets decay. For investors, this isn\u2019t ideology \u2014 it\u2019s fiduciary duty.<\/p>\n The Backlash Against Reality<\/p>\n As markets pivot toward fossil-free technologies, a new fight has emerged \u2014 over truth itself. <\/p>\n In the U.S., the White House has ordered NASA to shut down its two CO\u2082-monitoring satellites<\/a>, OCO-2 and OCO-3 \u2014 the world\u2019s most precise tools for tracking emissions. Together they deliver vital data for farmers, scientists, and policymakers at a cost of just $15 million a year out of NASA\u2019s $25 billion budget.<\/p>\n Former NASA officials warn the decision \u201cmakes no economic sense.\u201d It\u2019s not about saving money \u2014 it\u2019s about blinding the evidence that holds polluters accountable.<\/p>\n In Europe, parties such as Germany\u2019s AfD and the U.K.\u2019s Conservatives are moving to cancel net-zero targets, appealing to voters anxious over costs and regulation.<\/p>\n These moves won\u2019t stop the transition \u2014 but they can delay it at enormous cost. The irony is sharp: political denial now targets the science that enabled economic success.<\/p>\n The Cost of Delay<\/p>\n The political backlash isn\u2019t just ideological \u2014 it\u2019s already hitting consumers. In the U.S, electricity bills are surging \u2014 wholesale prices up roughly 40 percent in the first half of 2025, with residential rates rising 9\u201320 percent year-on-year. It\u2019s a perfect storm: exploding demand from new data centers colliding with stalled clean-energy projects. By blocking the cheapest, fastest-to-build sources of supply \u2014 solar, wind, and storage \u2014 policymakers are driving prices up and competitiveness down.<\/p>\n What It Will Take to Finish the Job<\/p>\n Global fossil-fuel subsidies still exceed US$7 trillion a year, according to the IMF \u2014 distorting markets, crowding out innovation, and delaying investment in cleaner, cheaper technologies.<\/p>\n Every year of hesitation locks in more heat, debt, and disaster risk. Every year of acceleration multiplies jobs, resilience, and competitiveness.<\/p>\n Yes, the transition will cost. We must modernize grids, rebuild infrastructure, and retool entire industries for a fossil-free economy.<\/p>\n But the cost of transformation is measured in investment \u2014 the cost of inaction will be measured in collapse. Insurance experts warn that unchecked climate damage could erase up to 50% of global GDP<\/a> within decades \u2014 an uninsurable future no one can afford.<\/p>\n This isn\u2019t just an energy transition \u2014 it\u2019s a race against time. Russia\u2019s Coal Collapse, America\u2019s failed coal auctions, and the unstoppable rise of clean energy all tell the same story: the market has moved. We\u2019re not waiting for the transition anymore. Written by Ingmar Rentzhog, climate communicator and Founder & CEO of Wedonthavetime.org. Follow me on Forbes<\/a> and LinkedIn<\/a> for stories at the intersection of science, economy, and the clean-energy revolution.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Workers secure coal supplies loaded into freight wagons before shipping at the Sibirginsky open pit coal mine operated…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":227172,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[49,48,108631,28190,295,66],"class_list":{"0":"post-227171","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-environment","8":"tag-ca","9":"tag-canada","10":"tag-coal-auction","11":"tag-energy-storage","12":"tag-environment","13":"tag-science"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/227171","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=227171"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/227171\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/227172"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=227171"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=227171"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=227171"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
The reason is brutally simple: logistics costs have soared \u2014 rising from 50 to almost 90 percent of the coal\u2019s final price \u2014 while discounts to Asia remain steep, sometimes forcing producers to export at a loss merely to secure foreign currency and protect mining-region jobs.<\/p>\n
If we stay the course, we will make it.
If we slow down, we won\u2019t.<\/p>\n
Now leadership must do the same.<\/p>\n
We\u2019re living it.
And whether the coal collapse will help us win or lose will depend on one thing \u2014 if we keep going.<\/p>\n