{"id":229061,"date":"2025-10-21T09:56:08","date_gmt":"2025-10-21T09:56:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/229061\/"},"modified":"2025-10-21T09:56:08","modified_gmt":"2025-10-21T09:56:08","slug":"the-arctic-is-still-warming-so-why-no-new-sea-ice-low-record-since-2012","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/229061\/","title":{"rendered":"The Arctic is still warming, so why no new sea ice low record since 2012?"},"content":{"rendered":"

“The climate system is noisy<\/a>, and not every uptick or slowdown is meaningful. Still, we should keep an eye on this. It\u2019s a great test for our models. Can they reproduce such a slowdown? If yes, do they do it for the right physical reasons?<\/a> If not, what are we missing? So far, it looks like this slowdown is still within our understanding of the magnitude of variability in Arctic sea ice.”<\/p>\n

Reason for no new minimum record is ‘outstanding’<\/p>\n

As to why there has been no new record set for sea ice minimum extent since 2012, “a definitive answer is still outstanding,” Lehner said.<\/p>\n

The “most plausible hypothesis” right now is a relation to the natural variability of the climate system, which occurs on top of long-term trends driven by climate change. It can either slow or hasten the overall direction, he added.<\/p>\n

“Natural climate variability is a hard-to-convey concept. A great analogy is a person walking a dog on a leash,” said Lehner. “The dog can randomly roam around but is ultimately constrained by the person\u2019s walking direction. In the climate system, the person represents the long-term sea ice downward trend due to greenhouse gas-induced warming<\/a>, while the dog represents random sea ice variations around the long-term trend.”<\/p>\n

\"Arctic<\/p>\n

\n(Getty Images\/Frank Gunther\/2220213277-170667a)<\/p>\n

Natural, or internal, climate variations occur all the time and are well-studied, he said, noting that sometimes the variations combine with climate change to speed up or slow the decline in Arctic sea ice, but they don\u2019t have the power to reverse it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"“The climate system is noisy, and not every uptick or slowdown is meaningful. Still, we should keep an…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":229062,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[16167,49,48,2848,6093,295,6092,3589,66,5097],"class_list":["post-229061","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-environment","tag-arctic","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-climate","tag-climate-change","tag-environment","tag-global-warming","tag-ice","tag-science","tag-temperatures"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/229061","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=229061"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/229061\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/229062"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=229061"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=229061"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=229061"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}