The World Series looms and the offseason will begin around two weeks from now. One of the first key decisions for teams is whether to issue a qualifying offer to any of their impending free agents. Clubs have until the fifth day after the conclusion of the World Series to make QO decisions.<\/p>\n
The QO is a one-year offer calculated by averaging the 125 highest salaries in MLB. This year\u2019s price is $22.025MM<\/a>. Players who receive the QO have around two weeks to get an early feel for the market before deciding whether to accept. If they do, they cannot be traded without their consent until at least June 15 of the following season \u2014 as is the case for any MLB free agent who signs a major league deal.<\/p>\n If the player rejects and signs elsewhere, his former team would receive draft compensation. The signing club would forfeit a pick (or picks) and potentially international signing bonus space. The compensation and penalties vary depending on teams\u2019 revenue sharing and luxury tax statuses. MLBTR\u2019s Mark Polishuk recently examined what each team would receive<\/a> if they lose a qualified free agent, and the penalties they\u2019d pay<\/a> to sign one.<\/p>\n Yesterday, MLBTR looked at a relatively light class<\/a> of expected recipients on the position player side. There\u2019s more intrigue with the pitching, which could feature a handful of borderline cases depending on option decisions and health questions.<\/p>\n No-Doubters<\/p>\n This group is straightforward. Valdez and Su\u00e1rez should easily land nine-figure contracts. Cease will probably begin the offseason with a nine-figure ask of his own based on his durability, plus stuff, and excellent strikeout potential. His 4.55 ERA and general inefficiency in the second half might prevent him from cashing in to that level, but he\u2019d at least be able to command a two- or three-year deal with opt-outs even if his market doesn\u2019t materialize as hoped. There\u2019s no reason for him to accept a one-year deal.<\/p>\n D\u00edaz is expected to opt out of the remaining two years and $38MM on his contract. He wouldn\u2019t do that only to accept a one-year offer at $22MM. He\u2019ll decline the qualifying offer and could look for a four-year deal that pays around $20MM annually.<\/p>\n Likely Recipients<\/p>\n All of these pitchers seem like comfortable recipients as well, though it\u2019s not 100% certain they\u2019d each decline as the top tier would. Gallen had an up-and-down season that concluded with a 4.83 earned run average over 192 innings. His 21.5% strikeout rate was the lowest of his career, and he struggled with the home run ball for the first time in four seasons. It\u2019s not an encouraging walk year, but he\u2019s only 30 years old and is a few months removed from having a case for a $150MM contract. While he\u2019s not going to get there now, he should be able to land a two-year deal with an opt-out if no team is willing to pay nine figures.<\/p>\n King and Woodruff would\u2019ve been locks to reject the QO had they finished the season at full stride. King missed a couple months with a pesky nerve injury in his throwing shoulder, then lost a few weeks to a knee issue. He returned in the middle of September but didn\u2019t make it beyond five innings in any of his final four starts. The Padres carried him on the playoff roster but had pushed him far enough down the depth chart that they turned to a diminished\u00a0Yu Darvish<\/a> to start an elimination game while keeping King in the bullpen. It\u2019s still likely that he\u2019ll decline the qualifying offer and command a multi-year deal, but it\u2019s an uphill battle to the nine-figure money that once seemed to be in the cards.<\/p>\n Woodruff finished the season on the injured list with a lat strain. He\u2019d missed all of 2024 and the first half of this past season rehabbing from a shoulder surgery. In between, he was one of the best pitchers on the planet. He turned in a 3.20 ERA with a 32% strikeout rate across 12 starts. Teams are always on the hunt for playoff-caliber starters, and Woodruff certainly has that kind of ceiling. The durability questions and his age (33 in February) are likely to keep him at two or three years, but he should command a multi-year contract that pays at or above the qualifying offer price.<\/p>\n Borderline Calls<\/p>\n Flaherty has a $20MM player option. He\u2019ll only become a free agent if he believes he\u2019s going to beat that on the open market. Would he decline the option just to accept a qualifying offer for an extra $2MM if the Tigers offered it? That seems unlikely but isn\u2019t impossible. He\u2019d have the approximate two-week window after receiving the QO to gauge the market, and if he\u2019s not finding the kind of early interest he\u2019d hope, it could make sense to accept the offer.<\/p>\n The Tigers would need to decide whether it\u2019s worthwhile to take that chance. Flaherty is coming off a middling 4.64 ERA but took the ball 31 times and struck out 27.6% of opponents. There are some similarities to where Nick Pivetta<\/a> was at this time last year: a reliable source of innings with a plus strikeout\/walk profile but concerns about his home run tendency. It was a little surprising that the Red Sox made Pivetta a qualifying offer and even more so that he turned it down. That gamble ended up netting the Sox the #75 pick in the draft. The Tigers, as revenue sharing recipients, would get a pick after the first round if Flaherty declines a QO and still pulls a $50MM+ guarantee from another team (as Pivetta did).<\/p>\n Giolito lost the 2024 season to internal brace surgery. He began this year on the injured list after suffering a Spring Training hamstring strain. He posted an ERA near 5.00 in May before settling in as a productive mid-rotation arm over the next few months. Giolito turned in a 3.03 earned run average across 20 starts and 113 innings from June onward.<\/p>\n A sub-20% strikeout rate raised some doubts about the sustainability of that kind of run prevention. Still, he looked like a reliable third starter who would do well on the open market once he crossed the 140-inning threshold to convert a $14MM team option into a $19MM mutual provision. Luis Severino<\/a> had a similar profile and commanded three years and $67MM with an opt-out after declining a qualifying offer last winter. While that contract was an overpay to get a free agent starter to pitch at Sutter Health Park, a three-year deal in the mid-$50MM range is still preferable to accepting a QO.<\/p>\n Then came another injury. Giolito suffered flexor irritation and a bone issue in his throwing elbow at the end of the regular season. He did not make the Wild Card roster and would not have been available even if the Red Sox had made a deep postseason run. Giolito told Chris Cotillo of MassLive<\/a> that there\u2019s no ligament damage and the issue should heal with rest. Whether to make the QO will come down to Boston\u2019s risk tolerance on the elbow.<\/p>\n The Sox\u2019s luxury tax status should also be a consideration. Unofficial public estimates have them narrowly above the $241MM base threshold. If that\u2019s the case, they\u2019d only get a compensatory pick after the fourth round if Giolito rejects a QO and signs elsewhere. It\u2019d fall in the #75 overall range \u2014 like the Pivetta pick \u2014 if they had stayed below the tax threshold. That won\u2019t be known publicly until MLB releases its final payroll tallies in December, but the team surely has an idea of where they stand.<\/p>\n Imanaga has a complex option setup that might keep him from getting to free agency. The Cubs first need to decide whether to exercise a three-year, $57MM option covering the 2026-28 seasons. If they decline, Imanaga has the right to opt out of the remaining two years and $30MM on his deal. If both sides decline their end of the option structure, he\u2019ll be a free agent. The Cubs would then need to decide whether to make the qualifying offer or be content to let Imanaga walk.<\/p>\n The longstanding assumption has been that the team would exercise the three-year option. Imanaga was fantastic in 2024 and carried a 3.08 ERA over 20 starts through the end of August this season. Then he got torched in September (6.51 ERA) and gave up six runs over 6 2\/3 innings during two postseason starts. He gave up at least one home run in each of his last nine regular season starts, as well as in both playoff outings. Imanaga surrendered an MLB-worst 20 longballs in the second half.<\/p>\n That\u2019s likely to continue to be a problem. Imanaga\u2019s fastball sits around 90 MPH and he\u2019s an extreme fly-ball pitcher. After striking out more than a quarter of batters faced during his rookie season, that dropped to a slightly below-average 20.6% mark this year. There are a lot of red flags, but he also owns a 3.28 ERA over 318 MLB innings in the last two seasons. How much has the final six weeks soured the Cubs on his future projection?<\/p>\n Unlikely\/Long Shots<\/p>\n This group gets a cursory mention largely because there\u2019s often one or two long shot recipients each year. Pivetta and especially Nick Martinez<\/a> fell into this bucket last winter. Still, it\u2019d register as a major surprise if anyone from this group receives the QO.<\/p>\n Suarez probably has the best chance. He\u2019s one of the game\u2019s best closers and should command a strong two-year deal for his age 35-36 seasons. The Padres have been navigating short-term payroll questions for the past few years, though, and they have\u00a0Mason Miller<\/a> as an obvious alternative to handle the ninth inning. Even if they want to give Miller a chance to start,\u00a0Jeremiah Estrada<\/a> or\u00a0Adrian Morejon<\/a> could close. With bigger needs in the rotation and at first base, they should let Suarez walk.<\/p>\n Mahle had a sterling 2.18 ERA across 16 starts but didn\u2019t miss many bats. He then suffered a rotator cuff strain that cost him three months between mid-June and September. He has battled various shoulder injuries over the past two seasons and underwent Tommy John surgery in 2023. The Rangers are cutting payroll and need to overhaul their lineup. Committing $22MM to Mahle wouldn\u2019t make much sense.<\/p>\n Williams, Keller and Weaver are three of the top relievers in the class. Teams generally reserve the QO for established high-end closers (e.g.\u00a0Josh Hader<\/a>,\u00a0Raisel Iglesias<\/a>). Williams would\u2019ve been in that group if he\u2019d had a typical platform year, but he finishes his first and probably only season in the Bronx with an ERA near-5.00.<\/p>\n Ineligible<\/p>\n Players who have previously received a qualifying offer in their careers cannot be tagged with a second one. That rules out Bassitt, Iglesias, Martinez and Verlander. Teams can only make the offer to players who spent the entire preceding season on their roster. Bieber, Kelly and Littell (who would\u2019ve been unlikely anyway) were all traded at the deadline.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The World Series looms and the offseason will begin around two weeks from now. 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