{"id":233477,"date":"2025-10-23T04:02:11","date_gmt":"2025-10-23T04:02:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/233477\/"},"modified":"2025-10-23T04:02:11","modified_gmt":"2025-10-23T04:02:11","slug":"nascar-cup-playoff-drivers-see-simple-path-to-championship-4-at-martinsville","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/233477\/","title":{"rendered":"NASCAR Cup playoff drivers see simple path to Championship 4 at Martinsville"},"content":{"rendered":"

MARTINSVILLE, Va. \u2014 The drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs each have a simple path to the Championship 4 at Martinsville Speedway.<\/p>\n

\"\"Photo: Dominic Aragon\/TRE<\/p>\n

\"\"Dominic Aragon\/TRE<\/p>\n

Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe have to log 500 laps and keep the momentum. Then, it\u2019s on to Phoenix Raceway for them. <\/p>\n

Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Christopher Bell is in a different situation that\u2019s very similar to Hendrick Motorsports\u2019 Kyle Larson. <\/p>\n

\"\"Dominic Aragon\/TRE<\/p>\n

\"\"Dominic Aragon\/TRE<\/p>\n

If Bell wants to make the Championship 4, he has to stay ahead of Larson and earn more points than him throughout the race at Martinsville. If Larson wants to make the Championship 4, the task against Bell is the same.<\/p>\n

Larson has the advantage. Although Bell has outscored Larson in more NextGen races than not (four vs. three), Larson has a greater propensity to run up front at Martinsville. He has finished second, first, sixth, second, third and fifth in the last six races, while Bell has finished first, 16th, seventh, 35th, 22nd and second.<\/p>\n

The last result \u2014 in the spring race earlier this year \u2014 is critical. That is the last data point for this track and the right-side tire compound from that race will be back this weekend. <\/p>\n

The important left-side tire compound is from New Hampshire, where 14 stage points allowed Larson to outpoint Bell despite finishing behind him in seventh.<\/p>\n

So, all of these numbers and talk about Bell and Larson \u2014 but why is that when they are 37 and 36 points above the cutline? It\u2019s because of these four drivers who have a very high chance of winning and moving the cutline up:<\/p>\n

Chase Elliott (-62 points to the cutline)<\/p>\n

\"\"Photo: Dominic Aragon\/TRE<\/p>\n

Elliott is the furthest from the cutline and can\u2019t point his way into the Championship 4 after a crash at Talladega. He will need to win at Martinsville to get in.<\/p>\n

Luckily for Elliott, he has been one of the best drivers at Martinsville in the NextGen era. Here is how his stats stack up:<\/p>\n

Wins: 0<\/p>\n

Top-Five finishes: 3 (4th)<\/p>\n

Top-10 finishes: 6 (2nd)<\/p>\n

Average finish: 8.0 (4th)<\/p>\n

Average of 39.9 points per race (3rd)<\/p>\n

557 laps led (2nd)<\/p>\n

Average start: 6.9 (2nd)<\/p>\n

Elliott has only been getting better at Martinsville.<\/p>\n

After three 10th-place finishes in a row and then a 17th-place finish in fall of 2023, Elliott hasn\u2019t qualified worse than third, hasn\u2019t finished worse than fourth and has earned at least 45 points and led at least 42 laps in each race since.<\/p>\n

Still, winning is the only thing that will matter in his position. The spring Martinsville race saw Elliott be second-best to Denny Hamlin. That is a good for Elliott, who will bring his A-game to Martinsville to lock in while Hamlin is already in.<\/p>\n

Elliott will be a contender to win \u2013 but one guy will be there to challenge him.<\/p>\n

Ryan Blaney (-47)<\/p>\n

\"\"Dominic Aragon\/TRE<\/p>\n

Ryan Blaney leads in four of the important categories to look at ahead of this weekend\u2019s race at Martinsville:<\/p>\n

Wins: 2 (1st)<\/p>\n

Top-Five finishes: 5 (1st)<\/p>\n

Top-10 finishes: 6 (2nd)<\/p>\n

Average finish: 4.6 (1st)<\/p>\n

Average of 42 points per race (1st)<\/p>\n

182 laps led (5th)<\/p>\n

Average start: 16.1 (17th)<\/p>\n

Blaney\u2019s two wins came in the last two fall Martinsville races. That is key. He is clutch in these scenarios. <\/p>\n

On top of it, Blaney was lights-out fast at New Hampshire Motor Speedway with the tire compound they brought to that race. <\/p>\n

Although Blaney has a poor qualifying record at Martinsville, he knows how to work his way through the field. He earned finishes of seventh and 11th after starting 31st and 32nd before at Martinsville. When he won in 2023 and 2024, he started 11th and 14th, respectively.<\/p>\n

The key will be to look at Blaney\u2019s practice speed. If the speed is there, Blaney will be in contention to win \u2013 and so may his much revered \u2013 and feared \u2013 teammate:<\/p>\n

Joey Logano (-38)<\/p>\n

\"\"Dominic Aragon\/TRE<\/p>\n

Although you may want to, you can\u2019t count Joey Logano out. His stats may not be the best at Martinsville but they\u2019re good enough to where he could show out:<\/p>\n

Wins: 0<\/p>\n

Top-Five finishes: 3 (4th)<\/p>\n

Top-10 finishes: 7 (1st)<\/p>\n

Average finish: 5.6 (2nd)<\/p>\n

Average of 38.1 points per race (5th)<\/p>\n

122 laps led (10th)<\/p>\n

Average start: 11.6 (7th)<\/p>\n

The only thing that may hold Logano back is he is typically stronger in the spring than he is in the fall. He has finished second, second, sixth and eighth in the spring, compared to sixth, fifth and 10th in the fall.<\/p>\n

However, Logano has never come into a fall Martinsville race in the NextGen era with a dire need to win to get into the Championship 4. He was locked in already in 2022 and 2024 and wasn\u2019t in contention in 2023. <\/p>\n

Logano also has recent history on his side. With the Martinsville tire compound at New Hampshire, he led the most laps and had the best track position all day before fading on the long run and late in the race to fourth. You can only imagine crew chief Paul Wolfe has brushed up on the flaws in the setup and is ready to deploy any strategy he can to get the No. 22 team one step closer to title No. 4.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s unclear how exactly Martinsville may unfold but track position will be key, as is the case at any track. Logano\u2019s pit crew is also consistent and their driver is one of the best defenders. If he gets the lead, he is going to be hard to beat \u2013 but one Hendrick Motorsports driver could find it a little easier.<\/p>\n

William Byron (-36)<\/p>\n

\"\"Dominic Aragon\/TRE<\/p>\n

William Byron was one of the first drivers to quickly pick up NextGen racing at Martinsville. His stats reflect that too.<\/p>\n

Wins: 2 (1st)<\/p>\n

Top-Five finishes: 2 (6th)<\/p>\n

Top-10 finishes: 4 (7th)<\/p>\n

Average finish: 10.4 (9th)<\/p>\n

Average of 33.4 points per race (7th)<\/p>\n

351 laps led (3rd)<\/p>\n

Average start: 12.1 (8th)<\/p>\n

The other stats indicate Byron is hit or miss at Martinsville, however. He finished 22nd in this year\u2019s spring race \u2014 a similar result as 2023 when he finished 13th in the fall to follow it up.<\/p>\n

Finishing outside of the top 10 is a no-go for Byron. Luckily, he was well inside the top-10 and in the mix for a win at New Hampshire with the Martinsville tire \u2014 finishing fourth after getting third in each stage. <\/p>\n

Hendrick Motorsports has also been strong at Martinsville, winning three of the seven NextGen races there. A good history means good notes, which they can apply to their New Hampshire notes to run well when it matters most.<\/p>\n

Who gets in?<\/p>\n

The law of averages has to catch up to a driver at some point but that can wait another year on Ryan Blaney. Based on the New Hampshire performance and his history at Martinsville, he is primed to win and get into the Championship 4.<\/p>\n

\"\"Photo: Jonathan Fjeld\/TRE<\/p>\n

While Chase Elliott is a strong pick, he hasn\u2019t shown the tenacity to win this season like Blaney has \u2014 but don\u2019t count out Elliott.<\/p>\n

No matter if it\u2019s Blaney or Elliott, you can bet on Kyle Larson.<\/p>\n

\"\"Dominic Aragon\/TRE<\/p>\n

Larson is primed to outpoint Christopher Bell at Martinsville by a razor-thin margin that will come to the final laps of the race.<\/p>\n

The spoiler in all of this, of course, is Denny Hamlin.<\/p>\n

\"\"Photo: Ryan BIlle\/TRE<\/p>\n

Hamlin won in the spring and has been strong at Martinsville. He has led the most laps of any driver in the NextGen era (735) and is tied with Blaney and Larson for the most top-five finishes in the era (5).<\/p>\n

While a win would moot for Hamlin, it would likely lock Christopher Bell into the Championship 4 and ensure Joe Gibbs Racing has a 3-in-4 chance of winning the championship at Phoenix Raceway. That is big.<\/p>\n

No matter who wins Sunday at Martinsville and gets into the Championship 4, it\u2019s shaping up to be one of the most competitive fights for the win the half-mile paperclip has seen \u2014 a clear reflection to the competitive championship fight this season is shaping up to be.<\/p>\n

MORE:<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"MARTINSVILLE, Va. \u2014 The drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs each have a simple path to the…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":229789,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[446],"tags":[49,48,634,82],"class_list":{"0":"post-233477","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-nascar","8":"tag-ca","9":"tag-canada","10":"tag-nascar","11":"tag-sports"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/233477","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=233477"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/233477\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/229789"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=233477"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=233477"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=233477"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}