{"id":23390,"date":"2025-07-25T16:00:18","date_gmt":"2025-07-25T16:00:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/23390\/"},"modified":"2025-07-25T16:00:18","modified_gmt":"2025-07-25T16:00:18","slug":"wnba-predictions-picks-today-fridays-best-bets-include-mercury-liberty-props-wings-valkyries-pick","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/23390\/","title":{"rendered":"WNBA predictions, picks today: Friday’s best bets include Mercury-Liberty props, Wings-Valkyries pick"},"content":{"rendered":"

There are two massive matchups on the WNBA card for Friday, July 25, with playoff contenders battling in matchups featuring the Phoenix Mercury<\/a> and New York Liberty<\/a> at 7:30 p.m. ET, along with the Las Vegas Aces<\/a> and Minnesota Lynx<\/a>\u00a0also at 7:30 p.m. ET. The late game is a clash between the Dallas Wings<\/a> and Golden State Valkyries<\/a>.<\/p>\n

If you’re interested in WNBA betting<\/a> and WNBA player props at the best betting sites<\/a>\u00a0for Friday, July 25, then make sure to see today’s WNBA best bets at\u00a0FanDuel Sportsbook<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Today’s WNBA picks:Breanna Stewart<\/a> Under 6.5 rebounds +100 (1.5 units, FD)Jonquel Jones<\/a> Over 6.5 rebounds -152 (0.5 units, FD)Jones 8+ rebounds +122 (0.25 units, FD)Valkyries -3.5 -110 (1 unit, FD)Liberty rebounding props<\/p>\n

I have to admit, I’m stunned this Stewart Under is plus money considering I think 6.5 is a pretty high line already. As a result, this is my biggest WNBA player prop bet so far this season.<\/p>\n

The simple handicap for Stewart rebounding props is this\u2014she’s averaging 4.8 rebounds in 10 games when Jonquel Jones has played and 8.3 rebounds in 12 games when Jones has not played. I don’t expect Jones to have a full workload since this is her second game back from an ankle injury, but she did play 23 minutes on Tuesday against the Fever<\/a>. A similar amount will cut into Stewart’s potential rebounding production. After all, Stewart had just four boards in that Fever game.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Liberty have played the Mercury twice this season and were without Jones for basically seven of those eight quarters due to that ankle injury. In the game against Phoenix that Jones left early in the second quarter after suffering the injury, Stewart finished with three rebounds in 37 minutes. In the game against the Mercury that Jones missed, Stewart grabbed five rebounds in 31 minutes.\u00a0<\/p>\n

I also added a half unit on Jones Over 6.5 rebounds because I think this has been adjusted too far (same with Stewart’s rebounding prop) to account for her playing fewer minutes. I don’t love laying -154, but Jones has grabbed at least seven rebounds in every game she played this season without exiting due to injury. In five of those eight games, Jones played no more than 25 minutes (three were Liberty blowouts, two were the first games back from injury), and she had at least nine rebounds in four of those games.<\/p>\n

In the game where Jones left early against the Mercury, she grabbed four rebounds in nine minutes. Phoenix is not a great rebounding team. The Mercury are tied for eighth in rebounding percentage (48.8%) and 10th in offensive rebounding percentage (28.2%). The Mercury also shoot the second-most 3-pointers per game in the WNBA, so the 6-foot-6 Jones will have plenty of opportunities to grab boards.\u00a0<\/p>\n

I know that last paragraph may be confusing since I also took Stewart Under rebounds, but I just strongly disagree that Jones and Stewart should each have rebounding props of 6.5 if both are playing.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Valkyries -3.5\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Valkyries have somewhat crashed back down to Earth, as they’ve lost five of their past six games after a 9-7 start in their first-ever WNBA season. But if you look closer, it’s just been a brutal recent schedule for the Valkyries, and I think this sets up as a great spot for them.<\/p>\n

During that 1-5 stretch, five of those contests were on the road against teams that are playoff contenders\u2014the 21-4 Lynx (closed +9.5, lost by 11), the 14-10 Dream<\/a> with a healthy Rhyne Howard<\/a> (closed +7.5, lost by 9), the 12-12 Fever with Caitlin Clark<\/a> playing (closed +7, won by 19), the 12-11 Aces (closed +5, lost by 2) and the 14-10 Storm<\/a> (closed +5.5, lost by 9). The lone home game over that span was against the 15-8 Mercury, where Golden State lost by 1 after closing as a 2.5-point favorite.<\/p>\n

Now, the Valkyries got a chance to rest and regroup after all of that travel and facing so many tough opponents, as this is their first game after the All-Star Break. This is also the first time that Golden State is playing a non-playoff team in July, as the Valkyries are hosting the 7-17 Wings.\u00a0<\/p>\n

On the surface, it looks like the Wings have been playing much better of late. They beat the Storm by 24 points on the road last game and only lost by four points at home to the Aces the game before. But Seattle was without All-Star point guard Skylar Diggins<\/a> for the first time all season and looked discombobulated without its floor general against Dallas. Las Vegas was up by 17 points with 8:21 to go when All-Star guard Jackie Young<\/a> exited with a hip injury, and the Wings were able to rally late against a shorthanded Aces team that was already lacking depth.\u00a0<\/p>\n

I think this is a strong buy-low spot on a Valkyries team that has gone 8-3 against the spread at home this season, compared to 5-6 ATS on the road\u2014even with leading scorer Kayla Thornton being ruled out for this game.<\/p>\n

Overall record: 44-45, +7.69 units<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"There are two massive matchups on the WNBA card for Friday, July 25, with playoff contenders battling in…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":6078,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[629],"tags":[19199,732,8603,8604,8605,6359,4657,49,735,48,3459,1612,4661,12200,3460,19041,736,3457,3461,6740,1611,4647,82,630,8601,19198,19197,19196,8602,8606,16293],"class_list":["post-23390","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-wnba","tag-aces-vs-lynx-odds","tag-atlanta-dream","tag-basketball-odds","tag-basketball-picks","tag-best-wnba-bets-today","tag-betting","tag-breanna-stewart","tag-ca","tag-caitlin-clark","tag-canada","tag-dallas-wings","tag-golden-state-valkyries","tag-jackie-young","tag-jonquel-jones","tag-las-vegas-aces","tag-mercury-vs-liberty-odds","tag-minnesota-lynx","tag-new-york-liberty","tag-phoenix-mercury","tag-rhyne-howard","tag-seattle-storm","tag-skylar-diggins","tag-sports","tag-wnba","tag-wnba-betting","tag-wnba-expert-best-bets","tag-wnba-expert-picks","tag-wnba-friday-betting","tag-wnba-gambling","tag-wnba-lines","tag-wnba-player-props"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23390","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23390"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23390\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6078"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23390"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23390"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23390"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}