Flu season is on the way.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s difficult to predict just how severe the influenza season will be each year, but public health experts say it could be harsh in Europe due to lagging vaccination rates and early signals from far-flung countries such as Japan and Australia.<\/p>\n
As of mid-October, the number of patients with flu-like respiratory symptoms \u201cremains low but is increasing in most countries, as expected for this time of year,\u201d according to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), which tracks flu activity in the European Union, Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Norway.<\/p>\n
Europe\u2019s flu season usually runs from mid-November to late May \u2013 but seasonal patterns may have shifted since the COVID-19 pandemic.<\/p>\n
After a shorter-than-usual flu season from 2023-2024, last year\u2019s season was \u201cunusually large,\u201d Colin Russell, a professor at Amsterdam University Medical Center and chair of the European Scientific Working Group on Influenza (ESWI), told Euronews Health.<\/p>\n
Eleven countries are now reporting sporadic flu activity, ECDC data shows. Meanwhile, in the United Kingdom, health officials have warned that flu levels are already rising, particularly among children.<\/p>\n
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\u201cIt\u2019s the time of the year where everything starts,\u201d Dr Anna Odone, director of the School of Public Health at the University of Pavia in Italy, told Euronews Health.<\/p>\n
Ultimately, Odone said the season\u2019s severity in any given country will depend on three factors: the number of vulnerable people, the strain of the virus spreading this year, and the environment. For example, if it\u2019s a long, cold winter, people may spend more time indoors, allowing the virus to spread more easily.<\/p>\n
Health experts are now watching for signs of early flu outbreaks in places where people have close contact with each other \u2013 such as schools, elderly care facilities, and prisons \u2013 to determine when the flu season really starts. That can differ based on the country.<\/p>\n
Officials are also monitoring which strains of the flu crop up. Last year, the H1 and H3 strains of influenza A, along with influenza B\/Victoria, were the primary strains in much of Europe.<\/p>\n
Other parts of the globe could offer some clues. In Australia and New Zealand, a strain of influenza A, called H3N2, has surged over the past two months, around the end of winter. Meanwhile, Japan declared an influenza epidemic earlier this month, some five weeks earlier than the flu season usually starts there.<\/p>\n
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However, it is too soon to say with certainty which strains will be dominant in Europe this year.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe’re in wait-and-see mode right now,\u201d Russell said.<\/p>\n
Influenza risks tied to vaccination<\/p>\n
While the flu doesn\u2019t usually cause serious health problems for young, healthy people, it is a simmering threat during the colder months alongside other respiratory illnesses, such as respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), pneumonia, and COVID-19.<\/p>\n
Up to one in five Europeans is infected with influenza every winter, and it is associated with about 27,600 deaths annually across the EU.<\/p>\n
Getting vaccinated ahead of flu season is the best way to protect against the virus and relieve pressure on hospitals. The jab is updated every year because protection from the vaccine weakens over time, likely due to a combination of waning immunity and the influenza virus evolving.<\/p>\n
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