{"id":243713,"date":"2025-10-27T15:32:12","date_gmt":"2025-10-27T15:32:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/243713\/"},"modified":"2025-10-27T15:32:12","modified_gmt":"2025-10-27T15:32:12","slug":"was-andrew-alvarezs-breakout-with-nationals-real-or-just-a-mirage","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/243713\/","title":{"rendered":"Was Andrew Alvarez&#8217;s Breakout With Nationals Real or Just a Mirage?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"tagStyle_16dbupz-o_O-style_mxvz7o-o_O-style_12bse5w-o_O-style_6s3kpz\" data-mm-id=\"_mw67x45g0\">There wasn&#8217;t a lot to root for down the stretch of this past season for Washington Nationals fans, but Daylen Lile&#8217;s pursuit of the team&#8217;s franchise triples record made things interesting when the team overall was limping to the finish line.<\/p>\n<p class=\"tagStyle_16dbupz-o_O-style_mxvz7o-o_O-style_12bse5w-o_O-style_6s3kpz\" data-mm-id=\"_74458lug8\">Based on what he did in the second half, <a class=\"tagStyle_16dbupz-o_O-style_12le3vo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.si.com\/mlb\/nationals\/onsi\/news\/daylen-lile-might-have-surpassed-james-wood-nationals-best-offensive-player\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">there is a lot of excitement for what he can do<\/a> right out of the gate next year with a full offseason of training ahead of him. At the very least, he&#8217;s going to be a rotation outfielder for the Nationals with a real chance to be <a class=\"tagStyle_16dbupz-o_O-style_12le3vo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.si.com\/mlb\/nationals\/onsi\/news\/two-nationals-rookies-cracked-top-50-list-gives-team-more-future-building-blocks\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">seen as a cornerstone to build around<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"tagStyle_16dbupz-o_O-style_mxvz7o-o_O-style_12bse5w-o_O-style_6s3kpz\" data-mm-id=\"_oszl4qx0h\">However, Lile wasn&#8217;t the only bright spot for Washington coming down the stretch, as Andrew Alvarez provided a major boost to a starting rotation that was hit hard with injury and had performed poorly throughout the campaign.<\/p>\n<p><img class=\"base_1emrqjj-o_O-initial_fzbddc-o_O-style_1a1csmw\" alt=\"Andrew Alvarez\" title=\"Andrew Alvarez\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Brad Mills-Imagn Images<\/p>\n<p class=\"tagStyle_16dbupz-o_O-style_mxvz7o-o_O-style_12bse5w-o_O-style_6s3kpz\" data-mm-id=\"_mmk7up8o2\">The left-hander arrived on Sept. 1 as the replacement for <a class=\"tagStyle_16dbupz-o_O-style_12le3vo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.si.com\/mlb\/nationals\/onsi\/news\/would-nationals-wise-trade-mackenzie-gore-this-offseason\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">MacKenzie Gore<\/a> when he was placed on the 15-day injured list. Considering the state of the pitching staff and how the season had gone, no one was expecting much out of Alvarez.<\/p>\n<p class=\"tagStyle_16dbupz-o_O-style_mxvz7o-o_O-style_12bse5w-o_O-style_6s3kpz\" data-mm-id=\"_okwi4sxua\"><a class=\"tagStyle_16dbupz-o_O-style_12le3vo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.si.com\/mlb\/nationals\/onsi\/news\/nationals-rookies-andrew-alvarez-cj-stubbs-franchise-history-debuts\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">But he dazzled during his MLB debut<\/a>, throwing five scoreless inning where he gave up just one hit and struck out four with two walks allowed. He followed that up with just two earned runs allowed in 4 2\/3 innings pitched against the Chicago Cubs on the road before returning home and spinning another scoreless outing versus the Pittsburgh Pirates where he allowed only three hits.<\/p>\n<p class=\"tagStyle_16dbupz-o_O-style_mxvz7o-o_O-style_12bse5w-o_O-style_6s3kpz\" data-mm-id=\"_kzj5axdlu\">All in all, Alvarez finished with a 2.31 ERA and an ERA+ that was 80 points above the league average of 100 across five total starts and 23 1\/3 innings pitched. He provided the Nationals&#8217; rotation with stability down the stretch, and it should be enough to earn him a shot at making the 2026 Opening Day roster.<\/p>\n<p><img class=\"base_1emrqjj-o_O-initial_fzbddc-o_O-style_1a1csmw\" alt=\"Andrew Alvarez\" title=\"Andrew Alvarez\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Brad Mills-Imagn Images<\/p>\n<p class=\"tagStyle_16dbupz-o_O-style_mxvz7o-o_O-style_12bse5w-o_O-style_6s3kpz\" data-mm-id=\"_s7mzamh15\">It&#8217;s perfectly normal to have enjoyed what Alvarez did in his limited action but also be skeptical about what he can provide at the big league level going forward. And that&#8217;s exactly some of the things <a class=\"tagStyle_16dbupz-o_O-style_12le3vo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.masnsports.com\/blog\/entry\/did-alvarez-show-enough-in-five-starts-to-merit-spot-on-2026-staff\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Mark Zuckerman of MASN<\/a> highlighted when he took a look at the lefty.<\/p>\n<p class=\"tagStyle_16dbupz-o_O-style_mxvz7o-o_O-style_12bse5w-o_O-style_6s3kpz\" data-mm-id=\"_t9gjzt2rd\">&#8220;He doesn&#8217;t have overpowering stuff, with a fastball that averages 91.2 mph and a modest strikeout rate of 7.7 per nine innings. He didn&#8217;t get a lot of swings and misses overall (22.2 percent, below the\u00a0major league average of 25 percent),&#8221; he wrote when it comes to Alvarez&#8217;s shortcomings.<\/p>\n<p class=\"tagStyle_16dbupz-o_O-style_mxvz7o-o_O-style_12bse5w-o_O-style_6s3kpz\" data-mm-id=\"_ftou7oekj\">That makes it hard to believe a larger sample size is going to produce the same results that happened to close out the 2025 campaign, especially because he&#8217;s someone who didn&#8217;t have an ERA below the 4.00 mark across 41 Triple-A starts.<\/p>\n<p class=\"tagStyle_16dbupz-o_O-style_mxvz7o-o_O-style_12bse5w-o_O-style_6s3kpz\" data-mm-id=\"_zn2dd7w2q\">Alvarez was also not a top prospect in Washington&#8217;s pipeline coming up the ranks as a 12th-round pick of the 2021 draft, with him never once cracking their top 30 list. That lack of pedigree is a red flag. However, there were some majors positives the left-hander flashed that could be signs of him being a late bloomer.<\/p>\n<p class=\"tagStyle_16dbupz-o_O-style_mxvz7o-o_O-style_12bse5w-o_O-style_6s3kpz\" data-mm-id=\"_8ingkvs65\">&#8220;What Alvarez did get was a lot of weak contact, especially on the ground. His 58.2 percent groundball rate was way above the league average of 44.2 percent (again, in a very limited sample). Opponents &#8216;barreled&#8217; only three percent of the balls they put in play against him (major league average: 7.2 percent). They hit just .200 off his fastball and a miniscule .091 with zero extra-base hits off his slider,&#8221; Zuckerman wrote.<\/p>\n<p><img class=\"base_1emrqjj-o_O-initial_fzbddc-o_O-style_1a1csmw\" alt=\"Andrew Alvarez\" title=\"Andrew Alvarez\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Brad Mills-Imagn Images<\/p>\n<p class=\"tagStyle_16dbupz-o_O-style_mxvz7o-o_O-style_12bse5w-o_O-style_6s3kpz\" data-mm-id=\"_u6t9lwpsm\">It&#8217;s hard for me not to view Alvarez as a flash in the pan who had a nice close to September when virtually nobody had any experience facing him and the information about his pitches was limited. Perhaps I&#8217;m jaded from the <a class=\"tagStyle_16dbupz-o_O-style_12le3vo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.si.com\/mlb\/nationals\/onsi\/news\/insider-believes-nationals-could-start-struggling-pitcher-minors-next-year\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">previous drop offs Mitchell Parker<\/a> and Jake Irvin had this year following their own breakouts in 2024. But the statistics pointed out above were glaring.<\/p>\n<p class=\"tagStyle_16dbupz-o_O-style_mxvz7o-o_O-style_12bse5w-o_O-style_6s3kpz\" data-mm-id=\"_36j54ejqd\">That&#8217;s not to say Alvarez shouldn&#8217;t get a shot to make the rotation in spring training. If he performs well and he is able to carry over what he did this past season into next year, then I&#8217;ll be more than happy to admit I was wrong.<\/p>\n<p class=\"tagStyle_16dbupz-o_O-style_mxvz7o-o_O-style_12bse5w-o_O-style_6s3kpz\" data-mm-id=\"_16l2ek8qu\">However, past indicators suggest he&#8217;s going to struggle in the near future, and despite the breakout he had in five major league starts, I don&#8217;t believe he&#8217;s a viable long-term rotation arm.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"There wasn&#8217;t a lot to root for down the stretch of this past season for Washington Nationals fans,&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":243714,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[435],"tags":[49,48,462,82],"class_list":{"0":"post-243713","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-mlb","8":"tag-ca","9":"tag-canada","10":"tag-mlb","11":"tag-sports"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/243713","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=243713"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/243713\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/243714"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=243713"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=243713"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=243713"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}