Ramblings \u2013 Dobber chimes in on Necas, Finnie, Catton, Misa, Dickinson and more\u2026<\/p>\n
As promised on Tuesday, I’m going to look at some of the rookies and where I think things are going this year for them.<\/p>\n
I’ll start with Emmitt Finnie<\/a>, who was a prospect who caught my eye when putting together the Fantasy Prospects Report<\/a>. I really liked him and even had him on my list in a deep dynasty. In the end, I didn’t think he’d make the team this year and as a seventh-round pick I felt he needed to show more progress as a pro. Prospects drafted late like that, who don’t show a lot of (relatively speaking) offense in junior hockey but suddenly spike in their final year are a dime a dozen. But I know the Wings were very happy with his progress and I felt I should grab him NEXT year. Whoops. Finnie is for real. He has made the team, is playing on the top line, seeing secondary PP duties and staying consistent. They’ve even put him on the PK a little! He plays hard, blocks shots, dishes out Hits. He leads the team currently in terms of toughest Quality of Competition faced and is second in defensive zone starts. His scoring luck is extremely high right now and not sustainable so a slowdown is inevitable. But he’s shown us that he is definitely a player to own in dynasty. In the Fantasy Guide<\/a>, I projected he would play 15 games, get four points and dish out 30 Hits. I thought he would play a few games to start the season, but then get sent down until a February callup gives him a few more.<\/p>\n I think that although his luck will slow down and his numbers will drop and probably have him finish up at closer to 45 points (less if he plays his way off the top line), and that his xG% 5v5 is just 45.5%, I think he sticks for good. That low xG% is due to, as noted, his high QofC and tough minutes at ES. His future is very bright though, this is only the beginning.<\/p>\n *<\/p>\n So Finnie thoughts ran a little long. I’ll try to keep it shorter. Finnie is in the AHL and the nine-game rule didn’t apply to him anyway, since he’d already be playing pro hockey regardless. I’ll focus on them. So: Catton, Misa and Dickinson.<\/p>\n Berkly Catton<\/a><\/p>\n After being scratched for five games, he has stuck in the lineup for five and has done very well (three points in five games). His metrics are quite strong, he drives possession very well (leads the team, in fact, though in half the games). Everything points to him sticking beyond the nine-game mark. He seems attached at the hip with Matty Beniers<\/a>, and that’s a good thing for both players, especially in the long run as he finds his footing. I don’t see prolific numbers out of him this year, but he’ll have hot spurts and I think we’ll see close to 50 points and a Top 7 or 8 rookie scorer. Down the road I can see him being a point-per-game player. A lot of potential from the Killer B’s (Berkly-Beniers).<\/p>\n Michael Misa<\/a><\/p>\n A potential superstar and if he sticks he’s going to be a Top 5 Calder nominee. But I’m still 50-50 on him sticking. His ice time is limited, his production is good, but modest, and he’s still getting the occasional healthy scratch. I feel like the Sharks are keeping him as long as they can, stretching out those nine games, before sending him down. A trick I’ve seen before is \u2013 the team sends their player down to the AHL on a “conditioning stint” to stretch things out even longer, and then gets sent back to junior to play for a month before the WJC. On the positive side, his metrics are pretty good and he’s facing some of the toughest Quality of Competition on the team.<\/p>\n Sam Dickinson<\/a><\/p>\n Dickinson is stuck at the nine-game mark. If he plays Saturday, then he’s burned a year off his ELC. But he’s an offensive defenseman and has zero points. He’s not being used on the power play (silly!) and is a minus-4. But his metrics are solid and he’s been the best on the team at driving possession. I can see why they are agonizing over this decision. I’m leaning towards his being sent down, especially with Luca Cagnoni<\/a> around. Cagnoni has three points in five AHL games, and so far has shored up his defensive game (in that limited window). He’s shooting a lot more, too. It makes more sense to hold onto Dickinson’s cheaper ELC for that extra year, and push it next year. Let him experience winning with the London Knights and Team Canada, while at the same time giving opportunity to Cagnoni, who is a year-and-a-half older. They both shoot left, but as a team most of their defensemen do, so these two have potential to form a lethal pairing in the future.<\/p>\n *<\/p>\n I see a lot of Internet rage about Martin Necas<\/a> signing an extension for what amounted to just $500k less than what Mikko Rantanen<\/a> got (AAV). But all I’m seeing is a guy who is producing just as well as Rantanen is. At a cheaper price, and they got a free third-liner in Jack Drury<\/a>. And don’t forget Rantanen wanted around $14M initially. The two players they got for Rantanen were in on all four goals in Colorado’s 4-2 win, so I’d say they did alright.<\/p>\n Necas is on pace for 104 points. I doubt he’ll get it (never say never though), but I had him projected for 86 points (89-pace) in the Guide and I’m inclined to bump that up to 90, which is actually right where I said he’d be when I did a TikTok<\/a> post on it in the summer.<\/p>\n Mitch Marner<\/a> has yet to have a single point in a game this year. It’s true \u2013 his games have either been zero (four) or two-point games (seven).<\/p>\n After a stellar first career start, Carl Lindbom<\/a> came down to earth in his second one. He wasn’t terrible, but he did give up three goals on 25 shots. He’s been on a great trajectory as a prospect, but at 22 is still young to be an NHLer. This is just a taste and overall it’s been a good one. Goalies being wild and unpredictable, there is a path where in two years Vegas has Carter Hart<\/a> and Lindbom as a tandem. I’ve never been quiet about my distaste for Adin Hill<\/a>, who to me is a below-average starter and above average backup, propped up by being on an elite team.<\/p>\n *<\/p>\n Matthew Schaefer<\/a>, despite the Islanders win, was pointless and has just one point in five games. He’s come down to earth. That said, in the last three games he has seen 16:10 of PP time. That’s massive. Just one PPPts to show for it though, but you can see the confidence Patrick Roy has him in that role though. His 5on5 S% is still incredibly high and everything in his metrics points to a slowdown.<\/p>\n Calum Ritchie<\/a> was called up for the game and he played with Jonathan Drouin<\/a> and Kyle Palmieri<\/a>. He saw secondary PP time and the line was arguably the most effective on the team (though JG Pageau<\/a>, Anders Lee<\/a> and Simon Holmstrom<\/a> was great too). Ritchie has three points in three games with Bridgeport before being called up.<\/p>\n The game was Ilya Sorokin<\/a>‘s second QS of the season. But he needs a couple more of those to get his numbers on track. I’m usually pretty patient with goalies of this caliber (since they are so rare), but his year-over-year save percentage does cause worry: 0.925, 0.924, 0.909, 0.907 and now 0.878. That’s in order. A straight line going in the wrong direction on the graph.<\/p>\n Last year, Alex Ovechkin<\/a> had 15 goals in the first 18 games. This year he has two in 11. The 40-year-old had 3.5 shots per game in those 18 games, this year he has just over two.<\/p>\n I’ve long been a fan of Emil Heineman<\/a>, but wondered how he’d work himself into the mix on this Islanders’ team. But he’s off to a decent start and now he’s getting the PP time (the last two weeks or so). The problem is, he hasn’t been affective on the PP. If he can get that going, I’d really like him as a top-sixer. He’s been locked in a pretty good line so far, with Jonathan Drouin<\/a> and Bo Horvat<\/a>.<\/p>\n *<\/p>\n Cutter Gauthier<\/a> continues to be a shot-volume monster so far this year, chalking up another six on Friday (though he didn’t score). It’s not a sustainable rate, at 5.20 per game (last year was 2.3), but regardless \u2013 it hints at the fact that he’s going to be a top shot-volume guy in the NHL for years to come. He’s only 21 and just getting started. His Hits rate is up as well, so perhaps he’s watched a lot of Brady Tkachuk<\/a> footage in the summer.<\/p>\n A four-point game for Leo Carlsson<\/a> gives him a five-game points streak and nine points in that span. We’ve been waiting for him to be fully healthy, playing at 100%, and have things click. And they have. If he has ascended to stardom now, then we’ve all underestimated Anaheim for this year. Of further note \u2013 his PP time has jumped by 90 seconds per game so far this season.<\/p>\n This early in the season, you can see how quickly a star player can get back on track. Alex DeBrincat<\/a> had zero goals in his first eight games but now has scored in four straight. He has three straight two-point efforts.<\/p>\n *<\/p>\n Something I stumbled on while reviewing players for the Rankings (hoping to post these later Saturday) \u2013 Mattias Samuelsson<\/a> has five points and 14 BLKS in the last five games.<\/p>\n *<\/p>\n From the NHL \u2013 “Teams that missed the playoffs last season have a combined points percentage of .540 so far this season. Nearly half of the teams with a points percentage of .600 or higher missed the playoffs last season (7 of 15). At the end of October last year, 13 clubs were .600 or better but only three were non-playoff teams from 2023-24.”<\/p>\n *<\/p>\n On the video socials, I have started posting a series on all 32 organizations and their Top 10 prospects, beginning with Colorado. You can find that on TikTok<\/a> and YouTube<\/a>.<\/p>\n Here is another piece I did explaining my 3YP metric, and where you can find it.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n