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Todd ZolaJul 26, 2025, 08:00 AM ET<\/p>\n
Close<\/a>Todd Zola is contributing writer for fantasy baseball at ESPN, specializing in game theory and player analysis. Todd is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. He won LABR and Tout Wars championships in 2016.<\/p>\n Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball<\/a> lineup decisions. MLB betting tips<\/a> for each day’s slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET<\/a> Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today’s MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news<\/a>.<\/p>\n Jump to: Pitching notes<\/a> | Hitting notes<\/a> | Betting tips<\/a> Pitchers to stream on Saturday<\/p>\n When the Baltimore Orioles<\/a> traded Connor Norby<\/a> and Kyle Stowers<\/a> to the Marlins for Trevor Rogers<\/a>, they envisioned the southpaw adding depth to a playoff rotation. Rogers has done his part, but injuries and a disappointing offense have the club looking to next season. With so many teams in the market for pitching, Rogers could be in demand as he’s done his part with a 1.74 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in seven outings, albeit with a pedestrian 35 strikeouts in 41 1\/3 innings. With the Orioles hosting the Colorado Rockies<\/a>, Rogers is in a great spot to pad his strikeouts while increasing his trade appeal as he faces the lineup with the third-highest road strikeout rate against left-handers.<\/p>\n Cade Horton<\/a> went into the break in a rut but emerged with a solid home effort against the Boston Red Sox<\/a>. Next up is a road date with the Chicago White Sox<\/a> and the offense with the lowest wOBA with a right-hander on the hill.<\/p>\n The Milwaukee Brewers<\/a> are one of the few teams with solid starting pitch depth with Chad Patrick <\/a>and Logan Henderson<\/a> biding time with Triple-A Louisville while former starters Aaron Ashby<\/a>, DL Hall<\/a> and Tobias Myers<\/a> are working out of the bullpen. Many keep expecting Jose Quintana<\/a> to pitch himself out of a job, but the veteran has pitched just well enough to secure his spot in the rotation. That said, he struggled in his last effort, yielding four runs to the Los Angeles Dodgers<\/a>, albeit with five punchouts and no walks. The lefty is in a favorable spot to rebound with a home affair against the Miami Marlins<\/a>, sporting the fifth lowest wOBA with a left-hander on the hill.<\/p>\n Pitchers to avoid on Saturday<\/p>\n Ranger Suarez<\/a> is probably just experiencing a hiccup on an otherwise solid season, but he has struggled with control over his last two efforts. In his first start after the break, Suarez issued four free passes against the Los Angeles Angels<\/a>, the lineup with the second lowest walk rate facing left-handers. On Saturday, Suarez squares off with a New York Yankees<\/a> team that coaxes walks at the league’s highest rate, buoying the second-highest wOBA against southpaw pitching. The safe play is stashing Suarez on reserve when the Philadelphia Phillies<\/a> visit the Bronx.<\/p>\n Saturday’s best matchups for pitchers<\/p>\n Milwaukee Brewers<\/a> pitchers vs. Miami Marlins<\/a> hitters Baltimore Orioles<\/a> pitchers vs. Colorado Rockies<\/a> hitters Kansas City Royals<\/a> pitchers vs. Cleveland Guardians<\/a> hitters Saturday’s worst matchups for pitchers<\/p>\n Boston Red Sox<\/a> pitchers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers<\/a> hitters Philadelphia Phillies<\/a> pitchers vs. New York Yankees<\/a> hitters Chicago White Sox<\/a> pitchers vs. Chicago Cubs<\/a> hitters Hitters to stream on SaturdaySaturday’s best matchups for hitters<\/p>\n Minnesota Twins<\/a> batters vs. Washington Nationals<\/a> pitchers Baltimore Orioles<\/a> batters vs. Colorado Rockies<\/a> pitchers Arizona Diamondbacks<\/a> LHB vs. Pittsburgh Pirates<\/a> pitchers Betting tips<\/p>\n Best\/worst pitcher\/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.<\/p>\n Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.<\/p>\n Because odds typically do not get set until the previous day’s games are completed, betting tips will be added in the morning.<\/p>\n Saturday’s worst matchups for hitters<\/p>\n Toronto Blue Jays<\/a> batters vs. Detroit Tigers<\/a> pitchers Athletics LHB vs. Houston Astros<\/a> pitchers Washington Nationals<\/a> RHB vs. Minnesota Twins<\/a> pitchers Saturday’s top home run prop bets<\/p>\n Vladimir Guerrero Jr<\/a> | OVER 0.5 HR (+600) Davis Schneider<\/a> | OVER 0.5 HR (+900) Alejandro Kirk<\/a> | OVER 0.5 HR (+900) Today’s top pitcher prop bets<\/p>\n Andrew Abbott<\/a> | UNDER 5.5 K (-160) Ryan Pepiot<\/a> | UNDER 5.5 K (-110) Gavin Williams<\/a> | UNDER 4.5 K (+105) Today’s Top YRFI\/NRFI Bets<\/p>\n Tampa Bay Rays<\/a> at Cincinnati Reds<\/a> | YRFI (-105) Toronto Blue Jays<\/a> at Detroit Tigers<\/a> | YRFI (+130)![](\"https:\/\/secure.espncdn.com\/i\/espnicons\/SVG\/external.svg?w=10&h=10\")
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring<\/a>.<\/p>\n
Reliever depth chart<\/a> | Start a new league<\/a><\/p>\n
Offense: B | Park: A | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.76 ERA in this matchup.<\/p>\n
Offense: A | Park: D | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.98 ERA in this matchup.<\/p>\n
Offense: B | Park: C | Umpire: N\/A | Temperature: D- | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 4.07 ERA in this matchup.<\/p>\n
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: D | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.39 ERA in this matchup.<\/p>\n
Offense: F | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: B | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.21 ERA in this matchup.<\/p>\n
Offense: F | Park: D | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.11 ERA in this matchup.<\/p>\n
SP: B | Bullpen: B | Park: B | Umpire: D | Framing: A | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .354 wOBA in this matchup.<\/p>\n
SP: A | Bullpen: B | Park: B | Umpire: B | Framing: B | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .352 wOBA in this matchup.<\/p>\n
SP: C | Bullpen: C | Park: B | Umpire: C | Framing: C | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .341 wOBA in this matchup.<\/p>\n
SP: F | Bullpen: D | Park: C | Umpire: D | Framing: D | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .270 wOBA in this matchup.<\/p>\n
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: D | Umpire: D | Framing: B | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .277 wOBA in this matchup.<\/p>\n
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: B | Umpire: D | Framing: D | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .280 wOBA in this matchup.<\/p>\n
Projection: 16% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.92 EV
One reason to bet this: This year, the hardest ball Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has hit reached a maximum exit velocity of 120.4 mph (a reliable metric to evaluate power), checking in at the 100th percentile.<\/p>\n
Projection: 10% chance of this bet hitting, with a $4.40 EV
One reason to bet this: High humidity has a small but significant link with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report projects the third-most humidity on the schedule today at 79%.<\/p>\n
Projection: 10% chance of this bet hitting, with a $2.30 EV
One reason to bet this: Based on Statcast metrics, my projections version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (19.6) may lead us to conclude that Alejandro Kirk has been unlucky this year with his 12.4 actual HR\/600.<\/p>\n
Projection: 73% chance of this bet hitting, with a $28.92 EV
One reason to bet this: Given that flyball pitchers are hit hardest by groundball hitters, Andrew Abbott (41.1% FB% per my projections) will be a bit disadvantaged in todays game with four GB hitters in Tampa Bays projected offense.<\/p>\n
Projection: 57% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.83 EV
One reason to bet this: As far as temperature and humidity go, the fifth-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.<\/p>\n
Projection: 51% chance of this bet hitting, with a $3.94 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the second-strongest of the day for bats.<\/p>\n
Projection: 53% chance of RUN with a $3.40 EV<\/p>\n
Projection: 44% chance of RUN with a $1.55 EV<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Todd ZolaJul 26, 2025, 08:00 AM ET CloseTodd Zola is contributing writer for fantasy baseball at ESPN, specializing…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":25779,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[435],"tags":[49,48,462,82],"class_list":["post-25778","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mlb","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-mlb","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25778","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25778"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25778\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/25779"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25778"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25778"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25778"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}