{"id":258732,"date":"2025-11-03T11:58:12","date_gmt":"2025-11-03T11:58:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/258732\/"},"modified":"2025-11-03T11:58:12","modified_gmt":"2025-11-03T11:58:12","slug":"moneyball-weekly-pre-free-agency-edition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/258732\/","title":{"rendered":"Moneyball Weekly: Pre-free agency edition"},"content":{"rendered":"

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It has been less than 48 hours since the baseball season concluded, with the Los Angeles Dodgers becoming the first repeat champions since the 2000 New York Yankees.\u00a0<\/p>\n

And with the World Series ending, the offseason has begun and free agency is right around the corner.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

This year\u2019s free agent class is extremely top heavy, with very few middle-of-the-pack players between the stars and the depth.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

This year\u2019s class will be headlined by Chicago Cubs\u2019 superstar right fielder Kyle Tucker. Tucker will be 29 when the season starts, and with a .841 OPS and a walk rate almost identical to his strikeout rate, he should be a hot commodity.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Another notable outfielder is Yankees\u2019 left fielder Cody Bellinger. Bellinger hit 29 home runs and posted a .813 OPS this year. Though his splits favor him against lefties, he\u2019s proven to be quality against anybody, and his glove is top-notch, making him an ideal left-hand man to any team\u2019s star outfielder.\u00a0<\/p>\n

While mostly a DH this year, Philadelphia Phillies\u2019 Kyle Schwarber can play the outfield if necessary and will be a hot topic on the market.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Schwarber\u2019s 56 home runs only ranked behind Cal Raleigh in the entire league, and his Statcast page is almost all red. Quality on-base skills and exceptional power should earn the likely NL MVP runner-up some lucrative offers.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Cedric Mullins, Mike Yastrzemski and Trent Grisham are some other notable outfield names.\u00a0<\/p>\n

In the infield, the top name is once again third baseman Alex Bregman.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Bregman had a red-hot first half, but an ice-cold second half. He is expected to decline his option per Jon Heyman of the New York Post.\u00a0<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

In such a premium position as third base, Bregman\u2019s .822 OPS and quality fielding should still earn him a top infielder contract this offseason.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Toronto Blue Jays\u2019 shortstop Bo Bichette is also set to hit the market, as of now. Fresh off a World Series appearance, it\u2019s hard to imagine Bichette leaving, but it\u2019s certainly possible.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Bichette\u2019s poor 2024 was out of character, and he proved that this year, with a .311 average that only trailed Aaron Judge leaguewide.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

At shortstop, though, Bichette\u2019s poor fielding may not fly. Bichette played second in four World Series games and was the DH in the other two he suited up for. There\u2019s a good chance Bichette will be on the other side of the infield next year, regardless of team.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

New York Mets\u2019 first baseman Pete Alonso is slated to hit the market as well, coming off his best year since his rookie year back in 2019. At any other position, his suspect fielding could be an issue, but at first base, his hitting will make up for it almost entirely.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Detroit Tigers\u2019 second baseman Gleyber Torres will hit the market for the second straight year. Though he started the year hot, he only finished with a .745 OPS, and his subpar defense doesn\u2019t bode well for him. Torres may be headed for another short-term deal.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Josh Naylor, Eugenio Suarez, Luis Arraez and Ryan O\u2019Hearn are other infield names to watch.<\/p>\n

J.T. Realmuto is the only notable catching free agent, but with stats steadily declining the past few years, it\u2019s hard to see him getting more than a one-year deal.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

The starting pitching market is a little deeper, but still relatively shallow.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Houston Astros\u2019 southpaw Framber Valdez headlines the class, and though his 3.66 ERA is the highest of his career since becoming a full-time starter in 2020, he should still earn a lucrative contract.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Philadelphia\u2019s Ranger Suarez, on the contrary, posted the lowest ERA of his career since becoming a starter, with a 3.20. Another lefty and two years younger than Valdez, Suarez is likely to get the largest deal for any free agent pitcher this offseason.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0Dylan Cease and Michael King of the San Diego Padres will also both be hitting the market.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0King and Cease\u2019s ERA and xERA are almost exact opposites. Cease\u2019s 4.55 ERA compared to his 3.46 xERA suggests bad luck on his side, while King\u2019s 3.44 ERA and 4.26 xERA suggest a lot of luck in his favor, leaving questions about both.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Franchises should have interest in both, and it\u2019s very possible one or both could be out the door for the Padres.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Shane Bieber, Lucas Giolito and Brandon Woodruff will all garner interest should they opt out of their respective deals.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

There\u2019s always a lot of turnover in bullpens, but one name stands out.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Mets\u2019 closer Edwin Diaz may choose to opt out of his deal this offseason, and he\u2019d become the cream of the crop. With Diaz posting a 1.63 ERA, Mets\u2019 owner\u2019 Steve Cohen would likely throw a lot of money at him so he won\u2019t depart.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Players technically became free agents the second that Alejandro Kirk grounded into that double play in the bottom of the eleventh.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Nobody can sign elsewhere until 5 p.m., five days later, which will be Thursday.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Until then, the exclusive negotiations window is open, meaning teams can attempt to re-sign their own players.\u00a0<\/p>\n

While no baseball will be played until February, the next few months will have a lasting impact on the 2026 season and beyond.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

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