{"id":258878,"date":"2025-11-03T13:40:11","date_gmt":"2025-11-03T13:40:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/258878\/"},"modified":"2025-11-03T13:40:11","modified_gmt":"2025-11-03T13:40:11","slug":"whos-in-and-out-of-the-playoff-picture-at-the-nfls-halfway-mark-plus-mlb-offseason-primer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/258878\/","title":{"rendered":"Who\u2019s in and out of the playoff picture at the NFL\u2019s halfway mark. Plus: MLB offseason primer"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Pulse Newsletter \ud83d\udce3 | This is The Athletic\u2019s daily sports newsletter. Sign up here<\/a> to receive The Pulse directly in your inbox.<\/p>\n

Good morning! Go for\u00a0a record<\/a>\u00a0today.<\/p>\n

Playoff picture: The NFL show is just getting started<\/p>\n

Week 9 has come and gone, and the NFL season\u2019s midway point offered much drama. The Bills shut down Patrick Mahomes<\/a> and evaded the Chiefs for the fifth straight time in the regular season to improve to a secure 6-2 mark. The Broncos staged another fourth-quarter comeback to move to an AFC West-best 7-2, in a game that saw Texans QB C.J. Stroud leave with a concussion.<\/p>\n

Elsewhere, Commanders QB Jayden Daniels dislocated his elbow<\/a> in a gruesome scene against the Seahawks, who saw Sam Darnold cook<\/a>. The Panthers upset the Packers. The Vikings knocked off the Lions. The Steelers upended the Colts. The Bears took down the Bengals in such a way<\/a> that \u201cThe Athletic Football Show\u201d hosts were brought to their feet (grown men jumping for joy here<\/a>!). Whew.<\/p>\n

Nine games yesterday were decided by 7 points or fewer \u2014 and five of those by 3 or fewer.<\/p>\n

Some teams don\u2019t have the divisional edge to dwell on a tight loss. Some divisions boast tight playoff races, others have one-win teams already eyeing the No. 1 draft pick. Here\u2019s how teams stack up before the season\u2019s second act begins, according to The Athletic\u2019s 2025 NFL Playoff Simulator<\/a>:<\/p>\n

Locks (90 percent or better):<\/p>\n

At 7-2, the Patriots (\ud83d\udc40) own the highest chance in the league to make the playoffs at 97 percent. The Bills trail their AFC East foe at 95 percent.
\nThe Colts (7-2) are sitting comfortably around 93 percent \u2014 as are the Eagles (6-2) and Buccaneers (6-2).
\nThe Rams (6-2) lead the NFC West\u2019s teams with a 91 percent chance, but the Seahawks and 49ers are pretty well situated themselves. This is wild:<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

The Packers (5-2-1) round out the top standings with 90 percent. Of note: They also post the best odds to win the Super Bowl at 11 percent.<\/p>\n

Yikes! It\u2019s worse than you think:<\/p>\n

Psst \u2026 we\u2019re looking at you, Dallas. The Cowboys (3-4-1) are second to the Eagles in the NFC East, but have only a 12 percent chanceof making it out of the regular season.<\/p>\n

Hmm \u2026 might surprise you:<\/p>\n

The 3-5 Ravens are looking \u2026 fine? Baltimore has about a 65 percent chance to make the postseason, despite sitting behind Pittsburgh (5-3) in the AFC North. That\u2019s likely because Lamar Jackson came back Thursday \u2014 in a big way<\/a> \u2014 and the schedule is favorable.<\/p>\n

You can keep exploring scenarios in the simulator (everyone can access it for free<\/a> in our app), and read our NFL staff\u2019s full Week 9 takeaways<\/a>. And just in, Mike Sando\u2019s Pick Six stacks the messy AFC<\/a>. Let\u2019s keep moving:<\/p>\n

News to Know<\/p>\n

Freeze out at Auburn
Another week, another high-profile college football firing. Auburn (4-5, 1-5 SEC) parted with coach Hugh Freeze amid his third season yesterday after the Tigers\u2019 10-3 loss to Kentucky. It was the last straw in a string of embarrassing home losses during Freeze\u2019s 15-19 tenure, and now he\u2019s owed a $15.7 million buyout. Defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin, who comes with baggage, will be the Tigers\u2019 interim head coach. More here<\/a>. (We also have names to watch<\/a>.)<\/p>\n

More news<\/p>\n

Yankees pitcher Max Fried, Guardians left fielder Steven Kwan and Cubs left fielder Ian Happ each won Gold Gloves for the fourth time. Full list of winners here<\/a>.
\nRacing Louisville grabbed the final NWSL playoff spot on Decision Day yesterday, ending a four-year run of finishing one place short. Check out the postseason bracket<\/a>.
\nKenyan distance runner Benson Kipruto won the men\u2019s division at the New York City Marathon yesterday by 16 hundredths of a second, the closest finish in the race\u2019s history<\/a>. Fellow Kenyan Hellen Obiri set a course record in her win on the women\u2019s side.
\nSpurs rookie point guard Dylan Harper, the No. 2 pick in this year\u2019s draft, exited last night\u2019s game<\/a> against the Spurs with a calf injury. San Antonion finally lost, too<\/a>.
\nThe ACC fined Clemson coach Dabo Swinney $10,000 for criticizing a late pass interference call in the Tigers\u2019 46-45 loss to Duke on Saturday. See his full comments<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udceb\u00a0Love The Pulse? Check out our other newsletters<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Study Up: Names to know this MLB offseason<\/p>\n

The World Series ending on a Saturday created this tidy timeline where we got one day to process, and then with this new week comes offseason action. Eligible players have now officially become free agents, and even a casual fan can glean that this class is solid.<\/p>\n

Our experts \u2014 namely, Keith Law and Jim Bowden \u2014 unsurprisingly agree Kyle Tucker is the No. 1 name available, both ranking the 28-year-old atop their top-50 lists. Tucker was hampered by injury this season, but his underlying stats and longtime defensive prowess point to a massive payday.
\nFrom there, the writers share similar names in their top 10s, including Bo Bichette, Kyle Schwarber, Framber Valdez, Pete Alonso, Ranger Su\u00e1rez, Alex Bregman, Dylan Ceaseand Cody Bellinger. They also each picked a Japanese star expected to be posted to MLB this winter: Bowden went with RHP Tatsuya Imai and Law with the power-hitting infielder Munetaka Murakami.<\/p>\n

The players already in MLB have to wait until Thursday to enter full-blown negotiations with teams other than their most recent. In the meantime, you can peruse Law\u2019s full rankings here<\/a> and Bowden\u2019s here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

This has been a very high-level crash course, though, so we asked Levi Weaver to pinpoint the most interesting player to monitor:<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udcac I\u2019m sure that this is recency bias, but I\u2019m fascinated by Bichette\u2019s free agency this year. With the banned shift, we\u2019ve started to see the league eke ever-so-slowly back toward valuing contact. No, we\u2019re probably never going back to the \u201c1998 Wade Boggs\u201d era (.366 average, five HR, sixth in MVP voting), but maybe we\u2019re coming out of the \u201c2023 Kyle Schwarber\u201d era (.197 average, 47 HR, 15th in MVP voting).<\/p>\n

Bichette, 27, tied for the second-best batting average in baseball this season (.311), and drove in 94 RBIs while hitting just 18 home runs. His defense at shortstop has been an issue, but at second base? I\u2019m interested.<\/p>\n

By the way: Levi just wrapped up another fantastic season authoring our free MLB newsletter, The Windup. Sign up here to get his coverage<\/a>all offseason.<\/p>\n

What to Watch<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udcfa\u00a0NFL: Cardinals at Cowboys<\/p>\n

8:15 p.m. ET on ABC (try streaming on Fubo<\/a> for free)<\/p>\n

Arizona (2-5) enters this one on a five-game losing streak, and Kyler Murray is set to miss a third straight start with a foot injury \u2014 although coach Jonathan Gannon said the QB \u201cmight have a role\u201d here. Dallas needs to bounce back from last week\u2019s blowout loss.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udcfa NCAAM: No. 3 Florida vs. No. 13 Arizona<\/p>\n

7 p.m. ET on TNT, truTV and Max<\/p>\n

College basketball is back, and this (in Las Vegas) is our first ranked men\u2019s matchup \u2014 plus the defending champs\u2019 debut. Consider this just a placeholder, though, as today\u2019s hundreds of men\u2019s<\/a> and women\u2019s<\/a> Division I matchups start at 8 a.m. ET.<\/p>\n

Get your tickets now with\u00a0StubHub<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Pulse Picks<\/p>\n

Our men\u2019s college basketball panel is split between five choices for national champion this season. See those picks and plenty more in this 2025-26 predictions file<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Jannik Sinner took back the world No. 1 ranking. But his fate is still in Carlos Alcaraz\u2019s hands<\/a>, as James Hansen explains.<\/p>\n

Ahead of tomorrow\u2019s NFL trade deadline, players shared firsthand what it\u2019s like to get traded. There are levels to it<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Not over Game 7 of the World Series? Fair. Keep the conversation going with the latest episode of \u201cRates & Barrels,\u201d<\/a> featuring Derek VanRiper, Eno Sarris and Jed Lowrie as your guides.<\/p>\n

Most-clicked in the newsletter yesterday: Andy McCullough\u2019s World Series Game 7 gamer<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Most-read on the website yesterday: \u261d\ufe0f<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Pulse Newsletter \ud83d\udce3 | This is The Athletic\u2019s daily sports newsletter. Sign up here to receive The…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":258879,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[436],"tags":[49,48,514,82],"class_list":{"0":"post-258878","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-nfl","8":"tag-ca","9":"tag-canada","10":"tag-nfl","11":"tag-sports"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/258878","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=258878"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/258878\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/258879"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=258878"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=258878"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=258878"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}