{"id":261098,"date":"2025-11-04T13:21:09","date_gmt":"2025-11-04T13:21:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/261098\/"},"modified":"2025-11-04T13:21:09","modified_gmt":"2025-11-04T13:21:09","slug":"hold-or-trade-leo-carlsson-matthew-schaefer-and-tristan-jarry-november-4-dobberhockey","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/261098\/","title":{"rendered":"Hold-or-Trade Leo Carlsson, Matthew Schaefer, and Tristan Jarry \u2013 November 4 \u2013 DobberHockey"},"content":{"rendered":"

William Nylander<\/a> was back in the lineup for Toronto on Monday night. He started the game on the second line with John Tavares<\/a> and Easton Cowan<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Notably, Cowan was moved to the top PP unit with Matthew Knies<\/a> being demoted to the second unit. For now, Cowan has a top-6, top PP role with the Leafs and it’ll be interesting to see how long he can hold onto it.<\/p>\n

Nylander’s impact was felt in a big way for Toronto in their home game against Pittsburgh as they battled back from a 3-0 deficit to score four straight goals in the third period and skate away with a 4-3 win. Nylander figured in on three of the four tallies, scoring twice himself while picking up an assist on an Auston Matthews<\/a> goal. Bobby McMann<\/a> chipped home a rebound with just over six minutes left to give the Leafs the lead, and eventually, the win.<\/p>\n

Nylander had two goals on five shots, an assist, and two PIMs in the victory while Matthews had a goal on four shots, an assist, three blocks, and a hit.<\/p>\n

Morgan Rielly<\/a> had two helpers and two blocks while goalie Anthony Stolarz<\/a> stopped 34 of 37 shots faced, including all 12 shots against in the third period, to secure the win.<\/p>\n

Ben Kindel scored twice, once on the power play skating on the top unit, for Pittsburgh. Erik Karlsson<\/a> had the other marker.<\/p>\n

Tristan Jarry<\/a> (more on him later) allowed four goals on 20 shots for the loss.<\/p>\n

*<\/p>\n

According to Ryan Henkel<\/a>, here is how Carolina lined up at practice on Monday:<\/p>\n

Taylor Hall<\/a> \u2013 Sebastian Aho<\/a> \u2013 Andrei Svechnikov<\/a><\/p>\n

Nikolaj Ehlers<\/a> \u2013 Logan Stankoven<\/a> \u2013 Jackson Blake<\/a><\/p>\n

Jordan Martinook<\/a> \u2013 Jordan Staal<\/a> \u2013 Seth Jarvis<\/a><\/p>\n

Both Nikolaj Ehlers<\/a> and Andrei Svechnikov<\/a> have yet to score a goal at 5-on-5, so it seems as if the coaching staff wants to see if a shake-up can produce some better results for them.<\/p>\n

*<\/p>\n

There is still no timeline for Pierre-Luc Dubois<\/a>‘ return, but Sammi Silber<\/a> reports that he still has an extended absence ahead of him, though surgery is not necessarily in the cards. For the time being, it looks as if Connor McMichael<\/a> may get an extended look as a top-6 centre.<\/p>\n

*<\/p>\n

Robert Thomas<\/a> returned to the lineup for the St. Louis Blues on Monday night following a week-long absence with an upper-body injury. He was in his usual top-line, top power-play roles. It should also be noted that despite Thomas’ return, Dalibor Dvorsky<\/a> remained on the roster, and in fact was also on the top PP unit. A vote of confidence in the young prospect.<\/p>\n

Pius Suter<\/a> scored with under 90 seconds left in a tied 2-2 game with St. Louis hosting Edmonton on Monday night, and that lifted the Blues to a 3-2 win over the Oilers. That was Suter’s fifth goal in 13 games this season and going back to the Four Nations break last year, he has 16 goals in 40 games.<\/p>\n

Thomas scored in his first game back for the Blues, and he assisted on a power-play goal from Dvorsky.<\/p>\n

Philip Broberg<\/a> had an assist, three shots, two blocks, and a hit in a very good multi-cat night.<\/p>\n

Jordan Binnington<\/a> allowed just two goals on 26 shots, the first time in five appearances he allowed fewer than three goals.<\/p>\n

Jack Roslovic<\/a> (PP) and Andrew Mangiapane<\/a> had the goals for the Oilers, and they were both assisted by Connor McDavid<\/a> and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins<\/a>. RNH is now over a point-per-game player with 15 points in 14 games with nine of those 15 points coming on the power play.<\/p>\n

Calvin Pickard<\/a> took the loss, giving up three goals on 22 shots.<\/p>\n

*<\/p>\n

Brock Boeser<\/a> played overtime hero in Quinn Hughes<\/a>‘ return to the Vancouver lineup as the Canucks went into Nashville and took a 5-4 overtime win. It was Boeser’s second of the game while also registering a power-play assist on a Jake DeBrusk<\/a> goal in the second period. Boeser wound up with two goals on six shots, the assist, a block, and a pair of hits.<\/p>\n

Evander Kane<\/a> scored his first two goals of the season, registering three shots, a block, two PIMs, and a hit.<\/p>\n

Hughes was held off the scoresheet but had six shots and two blocks in over 28 minutes of ice time.<\/p>\n

Thatcher Demko<\/a> stopped 25 of 29 shots for the win.<\/p>\n

Filip Forsberg<\/a> and Michael Bunting<\/a> each had a goal and a power-play assist in the Nashville loss, while Erik Haula<\/a> and Nick Blankenburg<\/a> tallied the other goals.<\/p>\n

Juuse Saros<\/a> allowed five goals on 36 shots in the loss.<\/p>\n

*<\/p>\n

Jordan Eberle<\/a> and Matty Beniers<\/a> each had a goal and an assist, and each had a power-play point, in Seattle’s 3-1 home win against Chicago on Monday night. Eberle had three shots, two PIMs, and two hits, and he’s up to 10 points in 12 games with nine blocks and seven hits.<\/p>\n

Jamie Oleksiak<\/a> had the other goal for the Kraken while Joey Daccord<\/a> held the Blackhawks to one goal on 30 shots.<\/p>\n

Andre Burakovsky<\/a> scored the lone Chicago goal, getting an assist from Connor Bedard<\/a>. Burakovsky now has goals in three straight games and has six points in his last four appearances.<\/p>\n

Arvid Soderblom<\/a> got the start in net for Chicago and allowed three goals on 24 shots.<\/p>\n

*<\/p>\n

Whenever we see a player is off to a hot<\/a> start, the question is always whether it’s ‘for real’ or whether it’s some sort of mirage. Figuring out that answer is important for fantasy managers when considering keeping a player who could be a league-winning option over the five months, or whether they should be traded when their value is at their theoretical highest. Here are three players off to hot<\/a> starts and what we should do with them. Data is from Natural Stat Trick<\/a> and current as of the morning of November 3rd.<\/p>\n

Leo Carlsson<\/a> (Anaheim Ducks)<\/p>\n

It isn’t that Carlsson taking a step forward is unexpected, and the Anaheim Ducks were a team I was personally high on in fantasy drafts this season because of that anticipated step forward combined with low draft cost. Carlsson is at the top of that list with 16 points in 11 games, ranking sixth in the league by points per game at 1.45. It has been a great first month of the season.<\/p>\n

There is a red flag here for Carlsson: the team is shooting over 15% with him on the ice. To put that into context, there were 982 instances of a forward skating at least 1000 minutes in a season in any of the four seasons from 2021-2025. Of those 982 forwards, just 11 of them finished 15% or higher by team shooting percentage with them on the ice. Even at just 13% shooting, Carlsson would lose 2-3 points.<\/p>\n

It isn’t to say that Carlsson can’t stay with an elevated percentage, and even if he falls to 11%, which is a bit above the prior four-year league average, with the rate that the Ducks are generating shots with him on the ice, he’s still a point-per-game player.<\/p>\n

What to do: At this point, I probably just hold Carlsson. As mentioned, even a sizeable shooting percentage downturn would have him around a point-per-game option. And if that shooting percentage downturn isn’t as steep as it could be, he’s even better than that. Considering the modest draft-day cost, and barring a lopsided traded return, I would hold him until at least American Thanksgiving and then re-evaluate. \u00a0<\/p>\n

Matthew Schaefer<\/a> (New York Islanders)<\/p>\n

Even the most optimistic Schaefer boosters could not have foreseen what he’s done: 30 more minutes of ice time than the next-closest Islanders defenceman, second in the league for shots by a defenceman with 36, and 1 of 10 defencemen in the league with double-digit points. It is hard to be much better than that as a true 18-year-old rookie (and he just turned 18 years old in September).<\/p>\n

The good news is there aren’t many red flags for Schaefer. He’s registering a point on 52.6% of Islanders goals scored with him on the ice, which is high but not even among the top-30 defencemen with at least 100 minutes played this season. The Islanders are also shooting 12.3% with him on the ice, which again is high but not even among the top-50 defencemen this season. Individually, he’s shooting 13.9%, and that will come down, but whatever he loses in goals he could easily make up in assists, so I don’t think he’s a 30-goal defenceman, but he can certainly finish with 15-20 goals on the year.<\/p>\n

What to do: This has to be a hold. I always worry about rookies running out of steam in the second half of the season, but the good news is that there’s an extended break in February for the Olympics. That will give Schaefer four weeks to rest and be ready for the stretch run in March and April. I don’t think he’s a 70-point defenceman, but everything is lining up for him to be a 50-point option, and that’s worth holding onto.<\/p>\n

Tristan Jarry<\/a> (Pittsburgh Penguins)<\/p>\n

Among goalies with at least five appearances this season, Jarry is 1 of 5 goalies with a save percentage over .920, as he sits with a .923 in six games. In conjunction with Arturs Silovs<\/a>, the Penguins are second in the league by overall save percentage, and that is what’s helped them start the year with a very good 8-3-2 record.<\/p>\n

The one thing to worry about here is Jarry’s schedule<\/a> thus far. He has faced the Minnesota Wild, St. Louis Blues, Florida Panthers, San Jose Sharks, New York Islanders, and Anaheim Ducks; just one of those teams (Anaheim) is a top-10 team by goals-for per 60 minutes so far this season. The league average goal-scoring rate is 3.04 goals per 60 minutes, and those six teams have averaged 3.00 goals per 60 minutes. It isn’t as if he’s played all soft competition, at least by goals scored, but this hasn’t been a murderer’s row of opponents.<\/p>\n

The red flag here is shot distance. The average shot distance faced by Jarry is 32.3 feet away. That is the fourth-closest distance among the 39 goalies with at least 300 minutes played, and the average is about 2.5 feet further away. Last year, no goalie in the top-10 for closest shot distance finished with a save percentage of .910 or better<\/p>\n

What to do: Now might be a good time to see what Jarry’s trade value is. If the Penguins keep the rotating goalie schedule<\/a>, Jarry’s next eight games are Toronto twice, New Jersey, Nashville, Minnesota, Buffalo, Tampa Bay, and Anaheim. Given Pittsburgh’s lacklustre defence in front of him, that could be a very bad stretch of games, and it would kill his trade value.<\/p>\n