{"id":263574,"date":"2025-11-05T15:23:22","date_gmt":"2025-11-05T15:23:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/263574\/"},"modified":"2025-11-05T15:23:22","modified_gmt":"2025-11-05T15:23:22","slug":"ufc-vegas-111-main-card-odds-breakdowns-and-predictions-x-factor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/263574\/","title":{"rendered":"UFC Vegas 111 main card odds, breakdowns and predictions | X-Factor"},"content":{"rendered":"

This weekend (Sat., Nov. 8, 2025), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns home to UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, for UFC Vegas 111. I\u2019m going to be a rare source of positivity ahead of this unheralded \u201cFight Night\u201d event: all of these matchups are fun! Last week was a junk show mostly notable for some alleged fight-fixing<\/a> \u2014 if sports books are refunding Isaac Dulgarian losses<\/a>, I refuse to count that loss on my official stat count below \u2014 but this is an improvement. The next three cards are great stuff, and this card cannot match the status of what\u2019s to come, but I\u2019m fairly confident each of the following bouts will produce an entertaining clash rather than low-skill bore.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s dig into the analysis and predictions of the four main card fights leading up to the main event:<\/p>\n

\"CHICAGO,<\/a><\/p>\n

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – AUGUST 16: (L-R) Joseph Morales punches Alibi Idiris of Kazakstan in a flyweight fight during the UFC 319 event at the United Center on August 16, 2025 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Cooper Neill\/Zuffa LLC)<\/p>\n

Flyweight: Joseph Morales (-278)<\/a> vs. Matt Schnell (+225)
<\/a>Best Win for Morales? Alibi Idiris For Schnell? Su Mudaerji
Current Streak: Both men won their last bout
X-Factor: Schnell has always been a bit fragile
How these two match up: This should be a great scrap.<\/p>\n

Morales \u2014 who was cut during the great Flyweight purge of 2018<\/a> \u2014 returned to the UFC in style, winning The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) by spanking the formerly undefeated prospect Alibi Idiris back in August. A jiu-jitsu black belt with power in his hands, 31-year-old Morales is looking to make a run during this second stint. Schnell, conversely, is four years older and managed to survive the 125-pound decimation. He\u2019s been throwing down inside the Octagon for nearly a decade now as a sharp kickboxer with underrated grappling skill, so this should be a fun bout wherever it ends up.<\/p>\n

Firstly, an admission: I\u2019ve trained with \u201cBopo\u201d since 2014. We\u2019ve been friends for a long time. The odds of me picking against him in a public fashion are less than zero.<\/p>\n

All that said, I do firmly see him winning this matchup even without factoring in bias. \u201cBopo\u201d has entered his prime now, and he\u2019s a heavy hitter against a Flyweight with a habit of getting knocked out. Schnell will try to keep distance and work his calf kick, but he\u2019s too much of a scrapper to avoid engaging in the pocket entirely. At some point, Morales\u2019 right hand will find the mark, and \u201cDanger\u201d will find himself in serious trouble. Given Morales\u2019 own jiu-jitsu skill, it\u2019s not likely that Schnell\u2019s ground game is able to bail him out this time.<\/p>\n

Prediction: Morales via knockout<\/p>\n

\"LAS<\/a><\/p>\n

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 03: (L-R) Muslim Salikhov of Russia punches Randy Brown of Jamaica in a welterweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at UFC APEX on February 03, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger\/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images) Zuffa LLC via Getty Images<\/p>\n

Welterweight: Muslim Salikhov (+150)<\/a> vs. Uros Medic (-180)
<\/a>Best Win for Salikhov? Francisco Trinaldo For Medic? Tim Means
Current Streak: Salikhov has won three straight, whereas Medic won his last bout
X-Factor: Salikhov is 41 years old
How these two match up: This is a striker\u2019s delight unlikely to see the final bell.<\/p>\n

You could be forgiven for assuming that Salikhov\u2019s career was coming to an end in 2024. He was 40 years old and riding a two-fight losing streak after all. Instead, \u201cThe King of Kung Fu\u201d has put together his best win streak in years, a three-fight run that includes two monster KO finishes. Medic is no stranger to knockouts himself. The 32-year-old \u201cDoctor\u201d from Serbia is an all-action kickboxer, intent on pushing the pace and throwing huge bombs. He lives and dies by the sword, as not a single one of his 14 professional bouts have ever seen the judges\u2019 scorecards.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s easy to side against Salikhov in matchups like this. We\u2019re so accustomed to the young eating the old, and it\u2019s hard to ignore that \u201c41 years old\u201d jumping off the page. He\u2019s not chinny, but Medic hits really hard and is the younger athlete. Common sense and historical trends tell us that the young, powerful hitter topples the aged veteran more often than not.<\/p>\n

Can Salikhov break the mold? I think so. Medic is hyper aggressive, and Salikhov just handled an aggressive and powerful slugger in Leal in just 42 seconds. Medic isn\u2019t going to take advantage of his likely cardio edge; he\u2019s going to force the issue inside the first round, because that\u2019s how he fights.<\/p>\n

I think he eats a hard counter punch from a full power Salikhov and doesn\u2019t like the taste one bit.<\/p>\n

Prediction: Salikhov via knockout<\/p>\n

\"LAS<\/a><\/p>\n

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 15: (R-L) Ismael Bonfim of Brazil punches Nazim Sadykhov of Russia in a lightweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at UFC APEX on February 15, 2025 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC)<\/p>\n

Lightweight: Ismael Bonfim (-198)<\/a> vs. Chris Padilla (+164)
<\/a>Best Win for Bonfim? Terrance McKinney For Padilla? Jai Herbert
Current Streak: Bonfim lost his last bout, whereas Padilla has won three in a row as a UFC fighter
X-Factor: Bonfim is a bit of a glass cannon
How these two match up: Once more, I fail to see how these two don\u2019t entertain.<\/p>\n

Bonfim is another kill-or-be-killed fighter who doesn\u2019t typically see the judges. He pushes the pace hard and is skilled both on the feet and the canvas, a finisher in either arena. On the other side of the equation, I\u2019ll admit I\u2019m having a difficult time getting a read on Padilla. Three UFC victories with two stoppages is nothing to scoff at, but his last two victories were very competitive fights that easily could have gone against him. Still, with 13 finishes in his 16 wins, Padilla is another Lightweight who doesn\u2019t like to see the scorecards.<\/p>\n

Ismael Bonfim fights are difficult to predict because he\u2019s a terrific hammer and miserable nail. He tends to dominate until he doesn\u2019t, whereas Padilla scored a funky comeback over Rongzhu in round three after getting touched up a bit. I could easily see Bonfim started strong, getting clipped, and then failing to get back into the fight.<\/p>\n

That said \u2026 he\u2019s the better fighter. He\u2019s the better striker, wrestler, and grappler. If he can pace himself to a reasonable degree, he should win pretty clearly.<\/p>\n

Prediction: Bonfim via decision<\/p>\n

\"ATLANTA,<\/a><\/p>\n

ATLANTA, GEORGIA – JUNE 14: (L-R) Cameron Smotherman punches Ricky Simon in a bantamweight bout during the UFC Fight Night event at State Farm Arena on June 14, 2025 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Cooper Neill\/Zuffa LLC)<\/p>\n

Bantamweight: Ricky Simon (-162)<\/a> vs. Raoni Barcelos (+136)
<\/a>Best Win for Simon? Raphael Assuncao For Barcelos? Payton Talbott
Current Streak: Simon has won two in a row, whereas Barcelos has won his last three
X-Factor: Barcelos is 38 years old
How these two match up: This is about as good as an unranked Bantamweight matchup can be.<\/p>\n

Both of these men are extremely well-rounded and push a hard pace. Simon is a little more straightforward in his approach. He\u2019s a classic wrestle-boxer who looks to impose pace and physicality on his opponents. Barcelos is a little more crafty. A decorated wrestler in Brazil, Barcelos chains together his takedowns really well and has a jiu-jitsu black belt as well. On the feet, he\u2019s a power puncher who throws in good combination.<\/p>\n

Similar to the Salikhov situation above, this is two fighters with similar strengths colliding where one man is significantly older. The default line of thinking is to favor the younger man to win a close fight. I was able to point to Salikhov as the exception, but I\u2019m not sure I can think of such an argument for Barcelos here.<\/p>\n

Throughout Barelos\u2019 recent resurgence, he\u2019s been winning because he\u2019s outwrestling his opponents, and that\u2019s historically not the way to defeat Simon. If Barcelos tries to make it a wrestling match, he\u2019s likely to fatigue himself without gaining much control time. Alternatively, his best shot may be to strike with Simon, the faster boxer with the heavier hands and a younger chin.<\/p>\n

Either way, it sounds like a tall task.<\/p>\n

Prediction: Simon via decision<\/p>\n

\"LAS<\/a><\/p>\n

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – AUGUST 09: (R-L) Christian Leroy Duncan of England punches Eryk Anders in a middleweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at UFC APEX on August 09, 2025 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC)<\/p>\n

Middleweight: Christian Leroy Duncan (+160)<\/a> vs. Marco Tulio (-192)
<\/a>Best Win for Duncan? Eryk Anders For Tulio? Tresean Gore
Current Streak: Both men won their last two UFC bouts
X-Factor: Both men have serious KO power
How these two match up: The main card opens with a collision of 185-pound kickboxers.<\/p>\n

Duncan enters off perhaps his most impressive UFC win yet, a one-sided mangling of the historically durable and gritty Eryk Anders. I\u2019m not trying to paint Anders as a world-beater, but he doesn\u2019t usually get styled on for a first-round finish either. The flashy English striker seems to be finding his footing inside the Octagon, but his defense will be tested here. Tulio is an aggressive up-and-comer who throws at a high-volume with serious heat. He\u2019s always working, attacking up-and-down the body with kicks and punches alike.<\/p>\n

This is going to be great fun. The last time Tulio faced a kickboxing specialist in Yousri Belgaroui, he actually mixed takedowns into his attack as well, which could be an interesting switch up here. More likely, he chases Duncan around the Octagon and tries to take his head off. In that case, it becomes a question of whether Duncan\u2019s defense and footwork are good enough to set up counters and deter Tulio?<\/p>\n

I\u2019m not seeing it. Tulio mixes up his attack well enough to avoid getting clipped too often on the counter, and his success is likely to snowball given how well he attacks the body and kicks the legs while advancing. Duncan has to land something hard early, otherwise Tulio is just going to keep building success.<\/p>\n

The Brazilian hasn\u2019t lost since 2018, and I don\u2019t think that changes on Saturday night.<\/p>\n

Prediction: Tulio via knockout<\/p>\n

\u2018X-Factor\u2019 Picks for 2025: 55-29<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"This weekend (Sat., Nov. 8, 2025), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns home to UFC Apex in Las Vegas,…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":263575,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[444],"tags":[49,48,641,33601,638,82,37644,17056,17055,8729,4454],"class_list":["post-263574","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mma","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-fighting","tag-latest-ufc-mma-news","tag-mma","tag-sports","tag-ufc-on-espn-fight-night","tag-ufc-odds","tag-ufc-predictions","tag-ufc-previews","tag-upcoming-ufc-events"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/263574","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=263574"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/263574\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/263575"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=263574"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=263574"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=263574"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}