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Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images<\/p>\n\t\t\t\tPatrick Gorski-Imagn Images<\/p>\n
Welcome to the start of another offseason. As is customary, now that the World Series has concluded, FanGraphs is releasing our ranking of the top 50 free agents available on the market this winter. A number of writers have helmed this list over the years: first Dave Cameron, then Kiley McDaniel, Craig Edwards, and most recently me. This is now my fifth year curating these rankings, and as always, my real superpower is collaboration. The FanGraphs staff contributed mightily at every step along the way.<\/p>\n
Below, I\u2019ve provided contract estimates and rankings of the offseason\u2019s top free agents, along with market-focused commentary for the top 25 players. That could be a sketch of likely suitors, a discussion of how qualifying offers might affect a player\u2019s thinking, or even just statistical analysis dressed up as market analysis for Halloween \u2013 I\u2019m a baseball nerd at heart, what can I say? A collection of FanGraphs writers \u2013 Davy Andrews (DA), Michael Baumann (MB), James Fegan (JF), Jay Jaffe (JJ), David Laurila (DL), Eric Longenhagen (EL), Kiri Oler (KO), Esteban Rivera (ER), and Dan Szymborski (DS) \u2013 have supplied player-focused breakdowns for the entire top 50, designed to provide some context for each player at this particular point in their career. Huge thanks go to Meg Rowley for acting as a sounding board throughout the process, Eric Longenhagen for his extensive contributions to my evaluation of the international players, Jason Martinez and Jon Becker for their market knowledge, and Sean Dolinar and David Appelman for technical assistance.<\/p>\n
The players are ranked in the order in which I prefer them. That\u2019s often the same as ranking them in contract order, but not always. In some cases, I prefer a player I expect will get less money over one who stands to make more. I\u2019ll generally make note of that in the accompanying comment, but just to reiterate, this list isn\u2019t exclusively sorted by descending average annual value or anything like that.<\/p>\n
All of the dollar amounts are estimated guarantees. Plenty of contracts will include team options or player incentives, but those aren\u2019t included here; player opt outs are similarly not included. Unless otherwise noted, the projections below are Steamer 2026 projections, but use our Depth Chart playing time allocations. The listed ages indicate the age-season the player is about to play. Every player\u2019s crowdsourced projection will appear alongside my projection.<\/p>\n
Teams have until 5 PM ET on November 6 to extend qualifying offers to players. Players then have 10 days from their receipt of those offers to either accept or decline them. As a refresher, if a player receives and declines a qualifying offer, which this year is valued at $22.025 million for one year, the team that eventually signs that player forfeits a draft pick, while the team that made the offer gains one. Which draft picks change hands depends on the circumstances of both teams<\/a>, as well as the total dollar value of the contract signed. I made assumptions about which players will receive qualifying offers and considered how that might affect their specific circumstances; you can read about those in the blurbs below.<\/p>\n For a comprehensive list of this year\u2019s free agents, which will be updated to include signings as they occur and crowdsource results for players whose future deals we polled on, please consult our Free Agent Tracker<\/a>.<\/p>\n The top of this year\u2019s free agent market is going to be a shock after the last three offseasons. Aaron Judge<\/a>, Shohei Ohtani<\/a>, and Juan Soto<\/a> headlined those classes, and each signed what was, at the time, the largest contract in the sport\u2019s history. That trend isn\u2019t going to continue this year. Kyle Tucker<\/a>, the consensus top hitter on the market, is great and also clearly not in the same neighborhood as that trio. Those deals reset the market. Tucker is going to get a huge deal, and it\u2019ll run for a long time. It\u2019s just not going to be for $700 million.<\/p>\n His market will be fascinating, in fact. There\u2019s no doubt that Tucker has been one of the best hitters in the league for the past half decade. He\u2019s 10th in WAR over that span, sandwiched between Mookie Betts<\/a> and Corey Seager<\/a>. He\u2019ll only be 29 next year, still squarely at the peak of his powers. He does everything at the plate, hitting for power and getting on base with equal aplomb. He\u2019s not a great defender, but neither is he DH-only. But he had a disappointing 2025 and an especially bad second half, perhaps partially explained by a hairline fracture in his hand and then a calf strain. He also missed half of the 2024 season with a fractured shin. It\u2019s a little bit scary to hand someone getting hurt at that clip a contract that might last more than a decade. Additionally, his peak might be more \u201cvery good All-Star\u201d than MVP; he\u2019s never finished a season among the top 15 position players by WAR, though he was on pace to do so before getting hurt in 2024. If I were running a team, I\u2019d be happy paying Tucker a big fat pile of money, but that pile wouldn\u2019t compare to what\u2019s sitting in Soto\u2019s vault. <\/p>\n Behind Tucker, there are eight players I have above the rest of the fray. Who you rank first in that group depends on what you\u2019re looking for. Want elite production in the immediate future? Alex Bregman<\/a>, fresh off of an excellent but injury-shortened season and about to turn 32, is your guy. Looking for pure offense? Pete Alonso<\/a> and Kyle Schwarber<\/a> fit the bill. Dylan Cease<\/a>, Framber Valdez<\/a>, and Ranger Su\u00e1rez<\/a> offer high-quality pitching. Cody Bellinger<\/a> does a little bit of everything. Bo Bichette<\/a> might not be a shortstop for long, but he\u2019s a middle infielder who hits like a first baseman.<\/p>\n Another change from recent years: I don\u2019t think Tucker will hold up the rest of the market in the same way that Judge, Ohtani, and Soto did. Sure, the teams pursuing Tucker might pivot to one of the second-tier hitters should they miss out on their top prize, but the combination of several similar offensive options and the fact that Tucker isn\u2019t the same kind of generational superstar that we\u2019ve been spoiled with of late means that some of those suitors will be looking to sign multiple free agents, or will be equally happy getting one of a few options, or otherwise just unwilling to wait around and risk missing out on a player they like in the hopes that Tucker will choose them.<\/p>\n One big picture note on this class: There are a lot of pitchers in my top 50 \u2014 15 starters and 14 relievers. That reflects recent trends in free agency and roster construction. The very top of the free agent market has star hitters who are good enough to play for pretty much any team, but as you get into the bottom of the list, where average veterans and good role players reside, teams increasingly prefer internal options to middle-of-the-road free agents. Unless a team is quite bad at player development, there are probably some prospects towards the top of their farm system who could, if things break right, outperform the aforementioned average veteran. Why not save a little money while simultaneously finding out if one of your prospects can be a building block for your future squad? This isn\u2019t new; teams have been pushing in this general direction for years.<\/p>\n On the other hand, you can never have too much pitching. If you sign an average third baseman, the minor league third basemen in your system are now blocked from starting in the majors unless they can learn a new position. If you sign an average pitcher, great! Someone has to start every game, and five starting pitchers is nowhere close to enough given the high rate of attrition modern hurlers experience. Last year, 31 of the 50 largest contracts went to pitchers. I think the money is going to continue flowing in that direction this year \u2013 star hitters will get the most, but mid-tier pitchers will outperform their bat-carrying counterparts.<\/p>\n Finally, a few more specific observations. There\u2019s some uncertainty over which KBO and NPB players are headed stateside, but I\u2019ve included Munetaka Murakami<\/a>, Kazuma Okamoto<\/a>, Tatsuya Imai<\/a>, and Cody Ponce<\/a> in our top 50. I\u2019d prefer a few other players from those leagues to some of the names at the bottom of this list, but I think it\u2019s unlikely that they\u2019re available for the contracts that I\u2019m projecting in that range. <\/p>\n I\u2019m lower than consensus on pitchers who are returning from catastrophic injury and hitting the market after a short contract, namely Brandon Woodruff<\/a> and Tyler Mahle<\/a>. I\u2019m generally in favor of accepting some risk of injury in exchange for the chance at a below-market ace, but I think that both of those guys have meaningful risk factors that push them lower on my preference list. Both stand out relative to the players around them on this list when it comes to my contract estimates. That\u2019s because I think that the market will value them more highly than I would, were I running a team\u2019s free agency process. I think they\u2019ll get solid deals; I just have a lower estimation of how that will turn out than the broad consensus.<\/p>\n On the other hand, I\u2019m higher than consensus on Devin Williams<\/a> and Ryan Helsley<\/a>, two fallen-star closers who compiled poor 2025 seasons after being among the best in baseball for years on end before that. Yes, relievers are extremely volatile, but both Williams and Helsley possess ridiculous strikeout stuff and missed a boatload of bats even while they put up poor run prevention numbers. I\u2019d be willing to offer both of them more than a pillow deal, and honestly I\u2019d probably offer them more than what I\u2019ve estimated they\u2019ll receive, because I think that either of the two could be the best reliever in a very good bullpen, and that signing them after a down year is more likely to work out than signing them after a career year.<\/p>\n That\u2019s a broad, top-level view of the market. If you\u2019re wondering why one player is lower than you\u2019d expect, or why a certain category of player is over- or under-represented, or why someone was left off entirely, it\u2019s probably due to how they fit into that picture. With those themes and caveats in mind, let\u2019s get to the list.<\/p>\n Contract Estimate<\/p>\n Type Ben Clemens Median Crowdsource Avg Crowdsource 2026 Steamer Projections<\/p>\n PA 658 Ben\u2019s Take If you take our projections for Tucker as gospel, the numbers being bandied about don\u2019t add up. Add a premium for stars, round up because he\u2019s the best player on the market, and I can convince my model that Tucker should break $300 million, but I can\u2019t get anywhere near the $400 million to $500 million range that was a popular hand-wave estimate for Tucker before the start of this season. In the end, I told my model to pound sand and estimated him meaningfully higher, but I\u2019m not at all confident in this number. I\u2019ll be watching his market develop with great interest. It\u2019s a fascinating one; he\u2019s clearly the best free agent available, and yet if I were running a team, even as much as I\u2019m in favor of paying up for stars and figuring things out later, I don\u2019t think my offer would be competitive with the top of the league.<\/p>\n Player Notes Tucker\u2019s final line (.266\/.377\/.464) thus looks a little disappointing, particularly given his career-low slugging percentage and full-season low 22 homers. Even so, his 136 wRC+ matched his combined mark from 2020\u201323, and his 4.5 WAR was on par with those seasons\u2019 marks; it\u2019s his .289\/.408\/.585 (179 wRC+) line and 4.2 WAR in 78 games in 2024 \u2014 with three months lost to a fracture in his right shin \u2014 that distorted expectations. He\u2019s not in the stratosphere of Judge, Ohtani, or Soto, the free agents who headed our last<\/a> three<\/a> Top 50<\/a> lists, but Tucker\u2019s all-around abilities will help him get paid handsomely. \u2013 JJ<\/p>\n Contract Estimate<\/p>\n Type Ben Clemens Median Crowdsource Avg Crowdsource 2026 Steamer Projections<\/p>\n PA 679 Ben\u2019s Take I think that the path of least resistance is for the Red Sox to get back into the Bregman business as quickly as possible. His lift-and-pull swing is a great fit for Fenway, and the infield has been the team\u2019s greatest weakness of late. The Sox will have plenty of payroll space available, with only $167 million committed in 2026 with Bregman having opted out, and this class is light on infielders outside of first base. A few more years, at a similar average annual value, should work for both sides \u2013 and given the perfect fit between stadium and player, I think they have the inside track on making that happen.<\/p>\n Player Notes It happens. Bregman ended up with a 125 wRC+ on the year, nearly identical to the 124 he averaged over the previous five seasons. It was a box standard Alex Bregman season, cut down to just 3.5 WAR because of the quad strain and the late swoon. He opted out all the same, and now here he is on the market. He\u2019s the same contact-making, chase-avoiding, strikeout-allergic, lifting-pulling-walking machine he\u2019s always been. He graded out closer to good than great on defense. On a WAR-per-PA basis, he ranked just outside the top 30 among position players. The Red Sox spent the whole season raving about his leadership qualities. ZiPS projected him for a 113 wRC+ before the season, but he refused to slide down the aging curve. He\u2019s Alex Bregman. The same Alex Bregman! Maybe one day that will be enough for a long deal. \u2013 DA<\/p>\n Contract Estimate<\/p>\n Type Ben Clemens Median Crowdsource Avg Crowdsource 2026 Steamer Projections<\/p>\n IP 187.0 Ben\u2019s Take The downside case with Cease is that his two-pitch approach won\u2019t work if he loses a bit of oomph on his fastball or a bit of bite on his slider as he ages. The upside case is that he hasn\u2019t done any of the things that older pitchers usually do to extend their effectiveness yet; he could add a cutter, or learn a new changeup grip (or two), or start throwing more sinkers, or any number of pitch-mix hacks. I think at least a few teams will look at the combination of durability and results, sprinkle in a little optimism about their in-house pitching development, and give Cease more than any other pitcher this winter. I\u2019ve estimated five years because while I think that teams will continue to prefer shorter deals for pitching, the top few names on the market generally get a year more than would be strictly comfortable for the signing team. Four would feel comfy; thus, I think he\u2019ll get five.<\/p>\n Player Notes Cease has never developed a real offspeed pitch to punch out lefties, but he uses his knuckle-curve for a similar purpose \u2014 albeit with mixed results \u2014 and has always been comfortable throwing his slider with a platoon disadvantage. He also has an excellent health history, and ranks fourth in baseball in innings thrown over the last five years. In this, the year before Tarik Skubal<\/a> Thunderdome, Cease ought to be able to fight it out with Framber Valdez and Ranger Su\u00e1rez for the biggest pitching jackpot this winter. \u2013 DS<\/p>\n Contract Estimate<\/p>\n Type Ben Clemens Median Crowdsource Avg Crowdsource 2026 Steamer Projections<\/p>\n IP 188.0 Ben\u2019s Take Valdez\u2019s market is complicated not only by his unique profile but by several other confounding variables. Almost 32, he\u2019s the oldest pitcher likely to command a top-of-the-market deal. His upside feels more capped than that of his counterparts; it\u2019s hard for me to imagine him finding another gear because he already maxes out his skills so well. Then there was the time it looked like he crossed up his own catcher on purpose<\/a> (Valdez later said he hit him by mistake), which might give some teams pause. That leads me to expect a slightly smaller deal than Cease will receive; the market for Valdez is just inherently narrower. <\/p>\n Often, good-pitcher-with-question-marks means a high-dollar, short-term deal. I\u2019m skeptical here, though. Valdez debuted relatively late and hasn\u2019t hit a big free agent payday yet; I expect him to prioritize total guarantee given that backdrop. I don\u2019t think any team would offer him more than five years, and I\u2019m not even sure they\u2019ll go that long \u2013 but if they do, I bet he\u2019d accept it.<\/p>\n Player Notes He is prone to hard contact, which makes for cynical expected stats on his player page, but Valdez has an established track record of outperforming his expected numbers as long as he can keep that hard contact on the ground. Valdez uses a somewhat distinctive arsenal to induce groundballs. Instead of a slider, he pairs a curveball with his sinker and changeup. It\u2019s an east\/west approach, but all three offerings dart downward as they approach the plate, leading to a lot of topped balls. Valdez did fade a bit in the second half of 2025, but absent any other indicators of regression, he and his groundball-heavy approach feel like a safe bet for any team with an infield defense worth a darn. \u2013 KO<\/p>\n Contract Estimate<\/p>\n Type Ben Clemens Median Crowdsource Avg Crowdsource 2026 Steamer Projections<\/p>\n PA 651 Ben\u2019s Take I think it\u2019s reasonable to wonder whether his offensive approach, something of a left-handed version of Isaac Paredes<\/a>, is viable outside of stadiums that favor lefty home run hitters. But even without the homers, he takes his walks and doesn\u2019t strike out very often, which gives him a nice floor. I also love that Bellinger\u2019s an elite defensive first baseman in addition to being great in the outfield (I gave him a second-place vote in this year\u2019s Fielding Bible awards<\/a>). If he loses a step later in the deal, his off-ramp is perfect; just slide him over to first base and expect the Gold Gloves to flow. <\/p>\n The obvious landing spot is for Bellinger to remain a Yankee. They need several outfielders, and he\u2019s a great fit for the stadium. But I think his market is meaningfully broader than that, and I also think that the Yankees of late have been choosy instead of profligate in their spending. My point: Get ready for some think pieces on the state of Yankees ownership if Bellinger goes elsewhere, because I expect him to find a robust bid away from the Bronx.<\/p>\n Player Notes His xwOBACON this season improved relative to 2024, but it was lower than in 2023. Similarly, his bat speed bounced back after a decline in 2024, but it decreased linearly every month of the season. Maintaining those gains will be crucial. Aside from widening his stance a bit and closing his front foot slightly, almost every other piece of his offensive profile is very similar to where it\u2019s been the last couple of seasons. If you read all that and are left scratching your head, it\u2019s a reminder of how good of a fit Bellinger is in Yankee Stadium. Home\/road splits aren\u2019t always so straight forward, but Bellinger\u2019s 152 wRC+ at home vs. 97 mark on the road holds weight. He\u2019s a great fit for teams with favorable right field dimensions. If his market mirrors that, don\u2019t be surprised. \u2013 ER<\/p>\n Contract Estimate<\/p>\n Type Ben Clemens Median Crowdsource Avg Crowdsource 2026 Steamer Projections<\/p>\n PA 679 Ben\u2019s Take When it comes to pure offense, Schwarber is probably the best guy on the market, and if it\u2019s not him, it\u2019s the guy below him. That gives him a strong negotiating position. You can\u2019t replicate Schwarber in the aggregate with two so-so hitters. You can\u2019t fake a 50-homer DH. Teams might be risk-averse in the extreme these days, but there isn\u2019t exactly a lot of risk in \u201cwill Kyle Schwarber hit next year?\u201d The bigger risk, in fact, might be missing the best bat on the market when you\u2019re trying to win now. <\/p>\n The only reason I didn\u2019t put Schwarber higher on this list is his age. He\u2019ll be 33 when the 2026 season starts, and that makes a long deal more or less impossible. Older hitters have had a miserable time in the modern majors. In the past decade, hitters aged 35 and over have managed seven seasons of a 140 or higher wRC+. Four of those seven seasons belong to Nelson Cruz<\/a>. Maybe Schwarber will be the next guy to do it, but if he is, he\u2019ll do so on a series of shorter deals. That\u2019s just how free agency works these days.<\/p>\n Player Notes That\u2019s the good news. The bad news is that at his age, it\u2019s tough to envision a repeat of 2025, and parking him at DH costs a team flexibility and limits his market (don\u2019t expect the Dodgers or Yankees to bid on him). Still, the man is a Vibes All-Star, and will likely exceed a straight dollars-to-WAR projection because he\u2019s so highly regarded within clubhouses and by fans. \u2013 JJ<\/p>\n Contract Estimate<\/p>\n Type Ben Clemens Median Crowdsource Avg Crowdsource 2026 Steamer Projections<\/p>\n PA 679 Ben\u2019s Take I had Alonso down for $140 million last year, and I expect him to beat that guarantee after taking into account the $30 million he earned in 2025. This isn\u2019t exactly a one-team market, but the Mets will surely be a top suitor; he\u2019s a fan favorite, they need offense, and Steve Cohen has never been afraid to spend. In fact, I bet that both sides are incentivized to come to a quick agreement. Alonso would likely prefer to get his deal done before Schwarber to prevent a repeat of last year\u2019s experience. The Mets, likewise, are trying to win now and can\u2019t afford to get too cute for the sake of saving a few dollars. The disaster scenario for them \u2013 Schwarber\u2019s market is robust, Alonso gets a huge offer away, and a bidding war ensues \u2013 feels like too big of a risk to me. And while Alonso might ask for seven years<\/a>, I think that four at a handsome AAV will get it done. The path of least resistance is for everyone to agree to a contract that comes through on the upside Alonso chased last year.<\/p>\n Player Notes Though he\u2019s never quite had another season like that first one, Alonso has been one of baseball\u2019s most fearsome power hitters for the last seven years. He\u2019s third across all of baseball in homers (264) since his debut, first in RBI (712, 32 more than the next guy), 12th in slugging percentage (.516) and top 30 in doubles. He\u2019s generated just shy of 21 career WAR, which is 40th among hitters since Alsono debuted, and fifth among first basemen. <\/p>\n Alonso first hit free agency after the 2024 season, but he was coming off a career-worst .459 SLG and 34 homers. There was pervasive fear that he could be this generation\u2019s Mo Vaughn<\/a> or Richie Sexson<\/a>, that his body type and style of play were the kind that results in a precipitous decline, and that that decline had maybe already begun. Alonso ended up on a short-term contract with the Mets that included a second-year opt out, which he exercised after an impressive 2025 rebound campaign during which he nearly tied his career high wRC+ (141) and was near the very top of the majors in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and other physical metrics that reinforce his continued prowess. He\u2019ll turn 31 in December and should be primed for a longer deal this time around. \u2013 EL<\/p>\n Contract Estimate<\/p>\n Type Ben Clemens Median Crowdsource Avg Crowdsource 2026 Steamer Projections<\/p>\n PA 658 Ben\u2019s Take Despite that strong pedigree, I\u2019d definitely prefer the seven players listed ahead of him here. For me, Bichette\u2019s lack of impact defense means that he\u2019s one of the players who WAR overvalues most; sure, he\u2019s a shortstop, but he\u2019s one of the worst defensive shortstops in baseball. I think that teams across the majors would prefer to move him to second base, but even there, I think he\u2019d probably be a defensive liability, and that\u2019s before we get into age-related decline. Some of his issues might be due to injury, but that\u2019s even scarier; he\u2019s made six trips to the IL in the past three years, and his footspeed has paid the price.<\/p>\n That\u2019s the dimmest possible view you could take of Bichette: a faux shortstop who our flagship statistic overrates. But the counterpoint is pretty easy, too: He\u2019s 20% above average offensively, and come on, you don\u2019t think he can learn to play second base if he\u2019s healthy? He would have had a top five batting line at the position this year. Plenty of shortstops have shifted positions and turned into good defenders at their new spot. Bichette\u2019s bat really is a difference maker, even if I think his value sometimes gets overstated as a result. In sum, even though Bichette isn\u2019t my kind of free agent, he\u2019s unquestionably very good, and I\u2019m quite sure that many teams will be interested in continuing the young-star-shortstop-gets-paid trend.<\/p>\n Player Notes Only 50 major leaguers have made their way into more games than Bichette\u2019s 673 over the last five seasons, but his track record is dogged by lower body injuries. Multiple right calf strains limited him to 81 games in a miserable 2024 campaign, while a left knee sprain knocked him out for the last three weeks of this season and sidelined him until a Willis Reed-like return for the World Series. But Bichette\u2019s right leg was the primary culprit up until then, as he suffered a sprain in that knee back in 2020, and dealt with minor patellar tendinitis and a quad strain in 2023. His relevance as a basestealer has evaporated as the incidents have multiplied. Moving to second base while Andr\u00e9s Gim\u00e9nez<\/a> manned short against the Dodgers was an injury-based adaptation, but Bichette\u2019s defense was at least 10 runs in the hole per DRS, OAA and FRV in 2025, so making it a permanent relocation should be a priority for his team whether he remains a part of Toronto\u2019s otherwise top flight defense or travels elsewhere.<\/p>\n Bichette has produced an even 20 WAR over his team control years since the Blue Jays popped him in the second round of the 2016 draft. Yet if a dispatch from the future had informed us that Bichette\u2019s explosive, full-body tornado of a swing would produce in-zone contact rates in the 90s, he wouldn\u2019t have fallen even that far and that WAR total would feel like injury played a larger part. He won\u2019t turn 28 until March, has maintained a 47.4% hard-hit rate over the last five seasons, and has such good bat-to-ball skill that reducing his chase rate to a career-best (but still elevated) 33.8% put him in the same strikeout rate territory as Yandy D\u00edaz<\/a>, Ketel Marte<\/a> and Ozzie Albies<\/a>. Despite the dynamism of his swing, Bichette is not a bat speed maven, and his contact-focused orientation fits him more than it might initially appear. So even coming off a 134 wRC+ season, Bichette\u2019s production has become so rooted in line drive trajectories that a repeat of his 29-homer campaign in 2021 is hard to fathom without a significant swing and\/or approach tweak. Until then, this is a contact-hitting second baseman going forward, albeit one with an easy chance of being top-three in the league at the position. \u2013 JF<\/p>\n Contract Estimate<\/p>\n Type Ben Clemens Median Crowdsource Avg Crowdsource 2026 Steamer Projections<\/p>\n IP 169.0 Ben\u2019s Take That puts Su\u00e1rez in a strange spot: old school approach, new school innings load. There aren\u2019t a lot of easy comparisons for him. Teammate Aaron Nola<\/a> seems like a decent first approximation, but Nola boasted more durability and several elite seasons heading into his contract year. Logan Webb<\/a>\u2019s contract extension would be a model for Su\u00e1rez, except that Webb leads the league in innings pitched every year. Teams prioritize pure dominance even if it comes with workload concerns, and they also want workhorses who can lighten the burden for the rest of the squad. Su\u00e1rez is stuck in between those two archetypes, which is going to limit his market somewhat despite his excellent overall results.<\/p>\n Player Notes In 2025, he ran a 3.20 ERA and 3.21 FIP. His 86.5 mph exit velocity ranked fourth lowest among all starters, behind Tarik Skubal, Hunter Brown<\/a>, and someone else I can\u2019t remember (OK fine, it was Kyle Hendricks<\/a>). Su\u00e1rez avoided the longball in a homer-happy park and he set a career high of 157 1\/3 innings. He\u2019s got a 1.48 ERA and 3.02 FIP across 11 postseason appearances.<\/p>\n As for the downsides, the inning totals are low in large part because Su\u00e1rez has dealt with back issues in three of the past four seasons. Those tend not to get better in your 30s. He\u2019s never made 30 starts, and the fastball velocity really is a concern. In 2025, his sinker and four-seamer combined to average 90.5 mph, which put him in just the seventh percentile. Whoever signs Su\u00e1rez will be getting one of the game\u2019s premier pitchers, but they\u2019ll be betting that he ages as well as Clayton Kershaw<\/a>, relying on both stuff and guile to perform at a high level through his age-35 season. It\u2019s a tall order. \u2013 DA<\/p>\n Contract Estimate<\/p>\n Type Ben Clemens Median Crowdsource Avg Crowdsource 2026 Steamer Projections<\/p>\n IP 66.0 Ben\u2019s Take The Mets, whose bullpen fell apart down the stretch despite D\u00edaz\u2019s brilliance, give him a strong floor in contract negotiations. They\u2019ll have alternatives, no doubt, but none as good as D\u00edaz, and skimping on bullpen options doesn\u2019t make a lot of sense when you\u2019re sparing no expense on the rest of the team. I\u2019m fairly certain that D\u00edaz will ask for a record average annual value in his deal, and why wouldn\u2019t he? I\u2019m also fairly certain that the Mets will give it to him. I\u2019m calling it three years because he\u2019s opting out of the last two years of his deal; this way, he can get both a raise and another year of job security. Everyone wins.<\/p>\n Player Notes Digging deeper into his batted ball stats, D\u00edaz threw both his four-seam fastball and slider with similar frequencies and velocities as before, and posted a career-high 48.4% groundball rate; both his average exit velocity and hard-hit rates went up, but a lower barrel rate offset that by enough that he even lowered his xERA (from 2.48 to 2.39). <\/p>\n D\u00edaz\u2019s stellar campaign was well-timed. With an eye towards guaranteeing himself a larger payday, he opted out of the final two years and $38 million of his existing five-year, $102 million contract. It\u2019s possible that he and his Timmy Trumpet soundtrack<\/a> will remain in Queens on a new deal, as the Mets are interested in retaining him, and only so many teams can afford a high-end closer. \u2013 JJ<\/p>\n Contract Estimate<\/p>\n Type Ben Clemens Median Crowdsource Avg Crowdsource 2026 Steamer Projections<\/p>\n PA 623 Ben\u2019s Take The real sticking point in Naylor\u2019s negotiation is going to be how many years he signs for. Teams just don\u2019t offer long deals to role players anymore, and when you get down to it, that\u2019s what Naylor is. I do think that he\u2019ll beat everyone outside of the top 10 other than the guy immediately following him on this list (more on him later), because his combination of age and proven performance stands out relative to his cohort. I\u2019m unsure of whether he\u2019ll have to wait until the top of the hitter market clears to find a home, but I think that he\u2019s the clear choice out of the rest of the pack, and if I were running a team and wasn\u2019t interested in the top prizes, I\u2019d consider trying to jump the queue by signing Naylor while everyone else focuses on Schwaber.<\/p>\n Player Notes But any concerns about Naylor are less about who he\u2019s been and more about who he might become. Some teams will look at his physique and assume it doesn\u2019t have too many defensive innings left in it, and their bias against Wario-shaped athletes might lead them to believe his aging curve is more of a cliff. But a more evolved team might see a player who controls the barrel through the zone and makes good swing decisions, one who, in his seventh year in the majors, used his ability to dissect the game to start stealing bases despite lacking foot speed. Those teams will see a player who thinks deeply about the game and realize that even though his body might not age well, the skills that make him great don\u2019t depend on a body in peak physical form. \u2013 KO<\/p>\n Contract Estimate<\/p>\n Type Ben Clemens Median Crowdsource Avg Crowdsource 2026 ZiPS Projections<\/p>\n PA 515 Ben\u2019s Take That said, I think that recent experience in the NPB market is making people overestimate Murakami\u2019s prospects. Yoshinobu Yamamoto<\/a> signed a record deal and won World Series MVP two years later. Ohtani is Ohtani. Sasaki had a terrible first year, and yet he\u2019s talented enough that the Dodgers used him as their closer in the playoffs. Signing these famous NPB stars has paid off handsomely, at least so far. Murakami is a great hitter, but I think he\u2019s meaningfully short of those three in terms of expected impact in the majors. I\u2019m terrified of his strikeout rate, quite frankly; NPB is a low-strikeout environment, and yet he\u2019s approached a 30% strikeout rate in each of his last three seasons. He\u2019s probably headed for first base, though many teams will at least nod towards giving him a shot at third. I\u2019m skeptical that he has the skills to play a good major league third base, but plenty of defenders I didn\u2019t think could hack it have proven me wrong before.<\/p>\n I think that the most likely outcome of a Murakami bidding war involves teams stretching on years rather than average annual value. I\u2019m expecting the contract to offset risk for both sides, likely by giving Murakami a player option and teams some kind of cheap back-end in case he disappoints in the majors. There\u2019s no way to represent that in this particular type of contract prediction setup, though, so just imagine a few bells and whistles on the projection I\u2019ve listed here.<\/p>\n Player Notes After that, Murakami\u2019s strikeout rate spiked back into the 28% range for each of the next three seasons, and he\u2019s never been quite as dominant as he was in 2022. He still has profile-carrying left-handed power, easily a 70 or 80 on the scouting scale, and he\u2019s never hit fewer than 30 homers in any season during which he\u2019s been totally healthy. But there are scary underlying indicators surrounding Murakami\u2019s contact ability that are something of a red flag when projecting his MLB future. His contact rate tanks against fastballs 93 mph and above (just 63% since 2022) and, more recently, Murakami\u2019s contact rates versus secondary pitches have also plummeted to near 50%. <\/p>\n MLB scouts and execs think Murakami might need to change his swing if he\u2019s going to hit over here. His enthusiasts think he can do so. They also think Murakami\u2019s health track record of late has impacted his performance. His 2024 season ended with a broken toe, then he had offseason elbow surgery, and then he tweaked an oblique early in 2025 and had a setback later on; altogether, he missed roughly two thirds of the 2025 season. Some combination of health and mechanical adjustment might allow him to make more contact, but either or both of those things needs to happen for him to be a successful big league hitter; he won\u2019t succeed if he\u2019s only making the rate of contact he was in 2025. Raw power like this doesn\u2019t exactly grow on trees, and teams with deep pockets are likely to be on Murakami as a high-ceiling project that they can more easily take a risk on. \u2013 EL<\/p>\n Contract Estimate<\/p>\n Type Ben Clemens Median Crowdsource Avg Crowdsource 2026 Steamer Projections<\/p>\n PA 644 Ben\u2019s Take Would I sign Su\u00e1rez to a long-term deal? Definitely not. It constantly feels like he\u2019s a year away from decline; heck, Seattle salary dumped him before the 2024 season and then re-acquired him at the deadline this year. This kind of boom\/bust game feels like it could end very messily; you can hit with a 30% strikeout rate, but probably not with a 35% rate, and he\u2019s swinging and missing more than ever before in pursuit of those sweet, sweet homers. I think that will keep his eventual contract short. But on that short deal, I\u2019d be happy to pay him like a star. No one will want to get caught holding the bag, but everyone will want 50 homers in 2026. High dollars over fewer years is the obvious compromise.<\/p>\n Player Notes When Su\u00e1rez is on, he\u2019s dangerous. The game-breaking upside that we saw at times in the postseason is exactly why you want him. The only issue is that he\u2019s not always on, and it\u2019s hard to know when it might all come crashing down. The slugger operates with a profile that doesn\u2019t leave much room for error. He has bottom decile whiff and strikeout rates, which is okay when you\u2019re slapping more than 40 homers, but the Mariners got a glimpse of the ugly after they acquired him at the trade deadline. Su\u00e1rez struck out over a third of the time and had the ninth-worst xwOBA among qualified hitters. And there is a tradeoff to having as high an attack angle as he does. You can and will launch, but you\u2019re left vulnerable at the top of the zone. Su\u00e1rez will have to continue toeing the line and making adjustments \u2013 it\u2019s who he is. His profile makes the most sense as a luxury on a team with a good offense, rather than relying on him to be a centerpiece. \u2013 ER<\/p>\n Contract Estimate<\/p>\n Type Ben Clemens Median Crowdsource Avg Crowdsource 2026 Steamer Projections<\/p>\n PA 560 Ben\u2019s Take The toughest part of projecting Grisham is his defense, which has fallen from elite to iffy in center field in the past few years. I think a move to a corner is warranted; he has spectacular instincts and a nose for the ball, but he\u2019s just not fast enough at full speed to handle center anymore. A move to right or left could turn him back into a plus defender, and he\u2019s definitely still capable of filling in for a while if the starting center fielder goes down.<\/p>\n Out of the pocket of five hitters around here on the list, Grisham offers the most defensive versatility but one of the worst bats of the group. Given that teams have increasingly been paying for offense in free agency and finding defensive value in their farm systems, I think that puts him towards the bottom of this cluster, though just ahead of the guy with the most confusing projection of the bunch\u2026<\/p>\n Player Notes Grisham looked like a future star in the shortened 2020 season, when he posted a 122 wRC+ with terrific center field defense and counting stats that would\u2019ve put him close to 30-30 over a full schedule. Then he forgot to hit, surviving three straight seasons of sub-.200 batting averages through the aforementioned defense and double-digit walk rates.<\/p>\n This year\u2019s Grisham walked more than ever (14.1% walk rate, with a .348 OBP) with a career-high 34 home runs. And there are obvious approach changes to point to here, including a career-high pull air percentage of 23.5%, which compounded nicely with the advantage of batting lefty in Yankee Stadium. But the best-in-baseball outfield range has evaporated over Grisham\u2019s two seasons in New York, leaving him to grade out as a below-average defender in 2025, for the first time in his career.<\/p>\n Grisham has, at one point or another, displayed all five tools in the majors, but it\u2019s been five years since he had them all at once. If he can ever run and hit at the same time, he could be the steal of this free agent class \u2014 especially as he\u2019s only just turning 29. But his career path has been so weird and unpredictable that it\u2019d be irresponsible to rank him higher. \u2013 MB<\/p>\n Contract Estimate<\/p>\n Type Ben Clemens Median Crowdsource Avg Crowdsource 2026 Steamer Projections<\/p>\n PA 665 Ben\u2019s Take To be fair, he does a lot of stuff well offensively. His sense of the strike zone is immaculate, and he makes plenty of contact when he swings. I actually think he\u2019s gone too far in that direction; his bat speed has declined as his contact rate has improved, and he\u2019s in danger of entering the sort of death spiral<\/a> my colleague Dan Szymborski discussed earlier this year. The overall tools are there, Torres just hasn\u2019t put them together consistently. Given the dearth of offensive difference makers available this winter, I think that potential will get Torres a deal similar to Grisham\u2019s, even if it requires teams doing a little wishcasting on his offensive upside.<\/p>\n Player Notes With another year of similar production in the books, teams will need to decide how they feel about the evolving shape of that production. Do they trust in the first half numbers and a first-rate understanding of the strike zone, or do they point to a rough second half as evidence of what\u2019s to come? Torres has proven himself capable of getting right following sustained slumps, but since he offers little value on defense or the basepaths, he\u2019s working within thin margins that make it unlikely he\u2019ll ever get the big, multiyear deal players dream of when they make the majors. \u2013 KO<\/p>\n Contract Estimate<\/p>\n Type Ben Clemens Median Crowdsource Avg Crowdsource 2026 Steamer Projections<\/p>\n IP 160.0 Ben\u2019s Take One option is for King to accept a qualifying offer, bank more than $20 million, and try free agency again next winter. I think that\u2019s the most likely outcome, in fact. King is in a strange middle ground where the qualifying offer meaningfully impacts his prospects; no one minds the draft pick cost all that much when they\u2019re signing a superstar, and deals below $50 million in total value carry lower penalties, but signing King would cost most teams a pretty good draft pick. Thus, a short deal that clears the QO hurdle and hopefully sets him up to reach free agency after a healthy 2026 could work for everyone.<\/p>\n Player Notes King did post a 3.44 ERA, but both his FIP (4.42) and xERA (4.26) indicate trouble below the surface. His strikeout rate slipped three percentage points relative to 2024, to 24.7%, while he served up full season career highs in homers per nine (1.47) and barrel rate (11.4%). Both of those have a lot to do with batters (especially lefties) giving his four-seam fastball the pi\u00f1ata treatment; they hit .349 and slugged .814 against it \u2014 with a 32.3% barrel rate! \u2014 though it did generate a 30% whiff rate, remaining an effective weapon when King threw it in the upper third of the zone or higher. <\/p>\n While King\u2019s season was a less-than-ideal platform for free agency, he declined his end of a $15 million mutual option. The Padres will likely issue him a $22.05 million qualifying offer, but he figures to decline that as well and search for a blockbuster deal, particularly given a market where most of the best starters come with major concerns. \u2013 JJ<\/p>\n Contract Estimate<\/p>\n Type Ben Clemens Median Crowdsource Avg Crowdsource 2026 Steamer Projections<\/p>\n IP 177.0 Ben\u2019s Take The big question isn\u2019t whether Kelly can be a part of your rotation in 2026 \u2013 at least, unless you\u2019re the Dodgers. The question is what 2027 and later will look like. He\u2019s 37 and throws 92 mph; it\u2019s not exactly a stable profile. It\u2019s pretty easy to imagine how this could go wrong. A tiny bit of velocity decline, three bad starts in a row in June, and suddenly the future could start to feel pretty rickety. That\u2019s a fear, at least to some extent, with every pitcher, but it\u2019s especially so when it comes to older guys without ridiculous stuff. If the way they succeed is mostly on guile, the decline phase can get hairy quickly. Thus, I have Kelly down for a QO-like one year deal that will give him a chance to hit free agency again if he\u2019s good, but won\u2019t cost the signing team in the future if he\u2019s cooked.<\/p>\n Player Notes Kelly is getting up there in years \u2014 the one time Tampa Bay Rays prospect celebrated his 37th birthday last month \u2014 but there\u2019s little evidence to suggest that he\u2019s over the hill. His 32 starts in 2025 were tied for ninth most in the majors, while his 3.52 ERA ranked 19th among qualified pitchers. Those aren\u2019t break-the-bank numbers in terms of what he\u2019ll receive in offers this winter, but they\u2019re more than enough to make him an attractive option for clubs in want of a middle-of-the-rotation addition, of which there are many.<\/p>\n Much like fellow free agent Chris Bassitt, Kelly is your consummate craftsman. Velocity-challenged by today\u2019s standards (his 92-mph heater ranked in the 16th percentile) and employing a diverse arsenal (six pitches), he is cerebral in terms of approach. When I talked to him earlier this year, Kelly told me<\/a> that he \u201cneeds to be smart with what [he is] doing out there on the mound.\u201d Given his recent track record of success, Kelly profiles as a prudent free agent acquisition. \u2013 DL<\/p>\n Contract Estimate<\/p>\n Type Ben Clemens Median Crowdsource Avg Crowdsource 2026 Steamer Projections<\/p>\n IP 174.0 Ben\u2019s Take With that contract now over and the specter of a QO hanging, a two-year deal seems right for Imanaga. I think he\u2019ll get $20 million or so per year, the going rate for a good but not overpowering starter. Imanaga\u2019s 2025 doesn\u2019t really hit that mark. He lost a few ticks on his fastball, his secondaries couldn\u2019t pick up the slack, and the result was a sharp decline in his strikeout rate and its various constituent bat-missing indicators. But his 2024 was really good, and given that he missed nearly two months of the 2025 season with a hamstring injury, a bounce back feels entirely reasonable. His velo dipped considerably in the second half of the year, for one thing, and his timing looked off too.<\/p>\n That uncertainty actually helps me peg Imanaga\u2019s market. He\u2019s too risky for a long-term deal to make sense. He\u2019s also too good for a low-AAV deal to make sense. The qualifying offer adds a further cap at $50 million in total value. As Sherlock Holmes said, once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains has to be the answer. For me, that\u2019s a two-year deal, probably with some kind of protection for both sides on the second year.<\/p>\n Contract Estimate<\/p>\n Type Ben Clemens Median Crowdsource Avg Crowdsource 2026 Steamer Projections<\/p>\n IP 191.0 Ben\u2019s Take Passing on Gallen might feel even more foolish in a year\u2019s time, though. He\u2019s never needed nasty stuff to get results; he\u2019s a command and deception guy, and it\u2019s entirely feasible that a change of scenery and an offseason to regroup vaults him right back up to spectacular. He throws as hard as ever, and having just turned 30, it\u2019s not like he\u2019s going to crumble to dust tomorrow. I think the most likely contract is one that gives everyone a small victory. Gallen gets a two-year deal, probably with some kind of innings-based opt out, while the team signing him stays below $50 million in total guaranteed money to avoid triggering harsher draft pick penalties. If he\u2019s great in 2026, he can hit the market again with no qualifying offer holding him back.<\/p>\n Player Notes Missing bats has never been among Gallen\u2019s best attributes as a pitcher, but he\u2019s lost 20% of his strikeout rate from his peak, and he\u2019s not one of those hurlers who appears to have a meaningful pitch-to-contact skill. All this being said, there\u2019s still upside here. Gallen\u2019s knuckle-curve is still good enough that he probably won\u2019t allow another nine home runs with it, and his repertoire gives him a lot of tools to work with. He started using his changeup a lot more against righties in the second half, which I think is a good approach, as it\u2019s gotten a whiff rate against righties that\u2019s almost as high as that of his slider.<\/p>\n While there are definitely concerns about Gallen dropping from marginal ace status, I don\u2019t think the questions are so significant that he\u2019ll be shunned in free agency. That said, his situation is further complicated by the fact that Arizona hung on to him at the deadline, meaning he\u2019s eligible for a qualifying offer. He\u2019s definitely still worth a QO, but there are enough issues here that draft compensation may sour some of his potential suitors. I think it\u2019s quite possible that Gallen signs something like a two year, $48 million with an opt-out clause. There ought to be teams, such as the Orioles, that will be happy to go in on something like that. \u2013 DS<\/p>\n Contract Estimate<\/p>\n Type Ben Clemens Median Crowdsource Avg Crowdsource 2026 ZiPS Projections<\/p>\n IP 116 Ben\u2019s Take I have Imai ranked here because NPB\u2019s offense has gotten so weird that I\u2019m skeptical of how things will translate. The very best players are clearly awesome, but you can\u2019t just take a great ERA and port it over directly. Anthony Kay<\/a>, who didn\u2019t make my top 50, posted a 1.76 ERA this year, for example. Essentially, I think that Imai is going to get a bigger deal than I\u2019d give him: I can\u2019t imagine the bidding ending at fewer than five years given his age and results, and it doesn\u2019t hurt that the last few elite NPB starters have been spectacular in the majors. Put everything together, and I expect some team to pay an amount that makes them uncomfortable to secure his services for the next half-decade.<\/p>\n Player Notes And Imai might not be done improving. He has a loose, whippy sort of athleticism that helps him generate big, deceptive arm speed. He may be a tweak away from having better stuff than his already solid five-pitch mix. A nasty mid-80s slider with sharp two-planed movement performed like a plus pitch in 2025 and is the best of those offerings. <\/p>\n You can quibble with Imai\u2019s relative lack of size (he\u2019s listed at 5-foot-11) or aspects of his delivery, but he certainly looks like a big league starter from a raw stuff and athleticism standpoint. He\u2019s demonstrated MLB starter-quality stamina and strike-throwing for the last several seasons, and he could conceivably take another step forward if even one aspect of his delivery can be polished in his late 20s. The chaotic ingredients of an NPB-to-MLB transition (different baseball, routine changes, etc.) create more risk and variability in Imai\u2019s forecast than that of the other tier-two free agent starting pitchers in this class, but Imai has a roughly similar ceiling as the Zac Gallen\/Michael King group. \u2013 EL<\/p>\n Contract Estimate<\/p>\n Type Ben Clemens Median Crowdsource Avg Crowdsource 2026 ZiPS Projections<\/p>\n PA 494 Ben\u2019s Take Still, let\u2019s not get too crazy here. We\u2019re not necessarily talking about Alejandro Kirk<\/a> as a third baseman; I expect that Okamoto will strike out far more in the majors than he did in Japan, and he\u2019s up there looking to do damage, not slap one the other way. His game is doubles over dingers, but it\u2019s a ton of both. It might also be more first base than third, which I baked into my estimation. I have him down as a solid hitter (though not an overwhelmingly good one) who\u2019s without an obvious defensive home. I think that will land him a four-year deal with some fancy bells and whistles for both him and the club that signs him. I have legitimately no clue which bells and whistles \u2013 but luckily, that\u2019s outside of the scope of this exercise.<\/p>\n Player Notes Okamoto\u2019s most resonant skills are his feel for contact and his ability to time and pull the baseball, including fastballs. This is especially impressive considering Okamoto loads his hands very deep, practically barring his front arm as he sets up. But his wrists and hands are quick and strong enough for him to get around on most pitch types and locations, and pepper the left field line with hard contact. For all NPB hitters, exposure to premium velocity comes in a small sample on a year-to-year basis. That\u2019s especially true for Okamoto, who performed dramatically better than before against 94-plus mph in 2025, but in only half a season\u2019s playing time. Okamoto\u2019s splits against hard fastballs are favorable. He has an 84% contact rate against all pitches 94 mph and above combined the last three seasons, compared to a 78% contact rate overall.<\/p>\n Because Okamoto is so geared to pull, he does make some concessions against well-located secondary pitches away from him, though none of his splits against any particular pitch type are especially scary, and his steady chug of improved contact over the last few years makes him less bust-prone. He tracks pitches well, moves the barrel around the zone (especially the upper half), and is a pretty stable bat-to-ball \u201cprospect\u201d for an NPB player. He lacks the light tower power of a superstar corner infielder, but he should hit enough to profile as a regular despite below-average defense at third base. \u2013 EL<\/p>\n Contract Estimate<\/p>\n Type Ben Clemens Median Crowdsource Avg Crowdsource 2026 Steamer Projections<\/p>\n IP 67.0 Ben\u2019s Take Now, are there red flags? Absolutely. Suarez is going to turn 35 just after Opening Day, he relies heavily on velocity, and he\u2019s so fastball-dominant that any loss of shape could make him shockingly hittable overnight. But closers with no red flags basically don\u2019t exist, and certainly not in free agency. Teams trying to sign Suarez aren\u2019t comparing him to Mariano Rivera<\/a> or anything; they\u2019re comparing him to what they have on hand, and for probably 20 teams in baseball, their best current option was worse than Suarez this year. I\u2019m expecting someone to give him a deal where the final year feels painful and borderline irresponsible, because good relievers are phenomenally important in the playoffs, and Suarez absolutely fits the bill.<\/p>\n Player Notes As with any free agent reliever, volatility is a concern, especially since Suarez will be entering his age-35 season. But Suarez is a bit of a throwback in terms of approach, which makes troubleshooting any potential issues in the future a simpler task. He throws two high-spin fastballs \u2014 a four-seamer and a sinker \u2014 at 98 mph and complements them with a changeup at 90 mph. He\u2019s not doing anything fancy, like tunneling a breaking ball off his heater or manipulating seam-shifted wake. He\u2019s varying location and messing with timing while throwing gas. What\u2019s more, the hitter\u2019s perception of that top-end velocity is amped up even further by his 81st-percentile extension. And despite reaching his mid-30s, his velocity is holding steady, as is his ability to locate his pitches. He allowed more solid contact in 2025 relative to prior seasons and his expected stats suggest he may have enjoyed some batted ball luck, so Suarez is no sure thing, but for teams looking to the free agent market for bullpen help, he\u2019s no riskier than any other late-inning reliever. \u2013 KO<\/p>\n Contract Estimate<\/p>\n Type Ben Clemens Median Crowdsource Avg Crowdsource 2026 Steamer Projections<\/p>\n IP 63.0 Ben\u2019s Take Somehow, though, he also posted a 4.79 ERA and lost the closer job. I\u2019m honestly at a loss as to why. He didn\u2019t give up a ridiculous number of homers. He didn\u2019t get wrecked by contact; his .296 BABIP allowed is worse than his career average, but it\u2019s not bad. He just seemed to either throw a perfect inning or get shelled. Maybe he was tipping pitches; he was far worse with runners on base. Maybe he just couldn\u2019t handle playing in New York, though I\u2019m skeptical of that argument in general. Either way, he was flat out bad this year despite incredible peripherals, and I think he\u2019s going to get a deal that reflects the fact that he\u2019s no lock to be a closer out of the gate in 2026. I think he\u2019ll snap out of it, and I would be happy to give him a multi-year deal speculatively, but I can\u2019t imagine preferring him to Suarez if I were trying to make the playoffs next season.<\/p>\n Player Notes Williams\u2019 arm angle has fallen every year since his rookie season, and it reached a career low of 18.8 degrees by the end of 2025. The drop hasn\u2019t coincided with any big changes in his movement profile, but it\u2019s very possible that it impacted his deception, his feel for location, and\/or the way his pitches tunnel with each other. By late summer, he seemed to have adjusted to his new reality. His locations shifted further to his arm side, and he settled into being his dominant self again, an improvement that carried into the playoffs. It\u2019s great to see that he was able to figure it out mid-season and be adaptable, even if there is a layer of volatility to his profile that wasn\u2019t there before 2025. \u2013 ER<\/p>\n Contract Estimate<\/p>\n Type Ben Clemens Median Crowdsource Avg Crowdsource 2026 Steamer Projections<\/p>\n IP 64.0 Ben\u2019s Take That\u2019s unknowable, but my read is that he\u2019ll end up in the same category as Williams, a great reliever and potential back-of-the-bullpen option, but one whose recent form rules out a long-term deal. Relievers are maddeningly difficult to predict, with the elite ones of today the mop-up men of tomorrow, which limits the length of their contracts at the best of times. I don\u2019t see how anything else could transpire here. The contours of that second year \u2013 vesting, guaranteed, player option, buyout, etc. \u2013 will depend on how teams parse Helsley\u2019s 2025 campaign, but I don\u2019t think a third year is likely in any case.<\/p>\n Player Notes Helsley truly broke out in 2022, when he experienced a two-tick velo bump and his slider began playing like a truly elite pitch. Since that season, Helsley ranks sixth in WAR and ERA among relievers with at least 200 innings pitched, while also being seventh in K% and 14th in WHIP. His ERA and FIP were comfortably under 3.00 in the 2022-2024 window, before spiking this year. The Cardinals traded Helsley to the Mets at the deadline, and he really struggled in August and September, posting a 7.20 ERA and 5.19 FIP while surrendering four home runs, as many as he had in all of 2023 and 2024 combined (and matching his first half total). At the end of August, he told<\/a> Will Sammon of The Athletic that he thought he was tipping his pitches.<\/p>\n There was virtually no dip in Helsley\u2019s stuff in 2025, he was just uncharacteristically homer-prone. Despite a fairly checkered injury history early in his career (he had shoulder stuff as a prospect and rookie, a stress reaction in his elbow in 2021, and a forearm strain in 2023), he\u2019s been durable for the last two seasons and is showing no signs of slowing down at age 31. He\u2019d be a set-up man or closer on most teams. \u2013 EL<\/p>\n Contract Estimate<\/p>\n Type Ben Clemens Median Crowdsource Avg Crowdsource 2026 Steamer Projections<\/p>\n IP 72.0 Ben\u2019s Take With no meaningful platoon splits and an elite ability to generate grounders, Rogers is the ideal fireman. He can parachute into any situation and possess useful skills for the task, and thanks to his low-effort delivery, he can pitch a ton; he\u2019s topped 70 innings in each of the last five years. It\u2019s definitely unsettling to use Rogers in high-leverage situations. He\u2019s just tossing it in there, and boy does it look weird! But regardless of what it looks like, you can\u2019t argue with the results. I think that\u2019ll get Rogers a two-year deal that more than doubles his career earnings.<\/p>\n Player Notes Rogers doesn\u2019t miss bats, and his velocity peaks in the low 80s, but he survives by being one of the rare pitchers who shrugs at batters making a lot of contact off him. They rarely hit him hard, and when they do, it\u2019s mostly straight into the ground. Of the pitchers with at least 50 balls hit 95 mph or harder in 2025, only Tim Hill<\/a> had a lower average launch angle (two degrees vs. three for Rogers). <\/p>\n It also helps that Rogers doesn\u2019t suffer the platoon splits that you see from a lot of sidewinding pitchers, which can limit their wider utility. While he doesn\u2019t whiff lefties with his sinker, they\u2019ve found that pitch almost impossible to drive unless Rogers makes a mistake. And his rising slider is a highlight reel generator. Rogers isn\u2019t likely to get a closer job in 2026 and he shines the most on a team with a good infield defense, but he ought to be solid in most setup roles. \u2013 DS<\/p>\n Contract Estimate<\/p>\n Type Ben Clemens Median Crowdsource Avg Crowdsource 2026 Steamer Projections<\/p>\n PA 525 Player Notes The idea of a Harrison Bader who swings a dangerous bat is tempting, but the underlying numbers treat that notion the way Gallagher treated watermelons. Bader\u2019s .359 BABIP was one of the highest in baseball. Among players with at least 350 plate appearances, the 43-point drop-off from his wOBA to his xwOBA was the very highest. His 89 DRC+ was the second-lowest of his entire career. He didn\u2019t suddenly start chasing less, making more contact, hitting the ball harder, or lifting and pulling.<\/p>\n The good news is that even in his age-31 season, Bader showed great speed, putting up a sprint speed of 28.8 feet per second. He\u2019s a few years removed from possessing elite speed, but he\u2019s still fast enough to go and get it in center. Just don\u2019t expect him to hit like it\u2019s 2025. \u2013 DA<\/p>\n Contract Estimate<\/p>\n Type Ben Clemens Median Crowdsource Avg Crowdsource 2026 Steamer Projections<\/p>\n PA 518 Player Notes What should be expected of the left-handed slugger going forward? Moreover, just how much value does a 32-year-old first baseman\/DH \u2014 one who primarily plays against opposite-handed pitchers \u2014 have relative to what it will cost to bring him on board? He\u2019s been productive since leaving Kansas City and seeing markedly more action, but at the same time, the 15 home runs, 121 wRC+, and 2.0 WAR that he\u2019s averaged over the last three seasons is good, not great.<\/p>\n Numbers aside, O\u2019Hearn\u2019s reputation as a clubhouse asset is an intangible that suitors will certainly consider. It is also worth noting that value for dollars spent is, in many ways, dependent on the team writing the checks. O\u2019Hearn is going to get paid. \u2013 DL<\/p>\n Contract Estimate<\/p>\n Type Ben Clemens Median Crowdsource Avg Crowdsource 2026 Steamer Projections<\/p>\n PA 546 Player Notes That\u2019s all great, but a healthy Polanco has usually been a plus hitter. What\u2019s new is the level of positional uncertainty in his profile.<\/p>\n Polanco made 87 starts at DH for the Mariners in 2025 compared to 39 in the field, and his health history would be enough cause for it even if his fielding metrics weren\u2019t underwater. Polanco had surgery to repair the patellar tendon in his left knee at the close of the 2024 season, allowing Seattle to pounce on him as a buy-low option. Prior to that, two surgeries on his right ankle \u2013 the last of which came after the 2020 season \u2013 precipitated his move off shortstop during his Twins tenure. He\u2019s made a handful of appearances at third over the last three seasons, but didn\u2019t make the sort of immediate impression to signal it as an obvious solution.<\/p>\n Polanco hits too well to not be a regular on a multi-year deal somewhere in his age-32 season (he\u2019s expected to decline a 2026 player option), but his defense and injury history will require a rather specific fit. \u2013 JF<\/p>\n Contract Estimate<\/p>\n Type Ben Clemens Median Crowdsource Avg Crowdsource 2026 Steamer Projections<\/p>\n PA 602 Player Notes And they didn\u2019t get much for it. Kim started the season with a shoulder injury that kept him on the IL until July, and he suited up for Tampa Bay just 24 times before the Rays put him on waivers. Kim finished the year as a significant part of the Braves\u2019 \u201cWe\u2019re not making the playoffs and everyone\u2019s hurt, so let\u2019s try some stuff\u201d experiment. And he was OK, hitting .253\/.316\/.368 in 24 games.<\/p>\n Kim\u2019s long track record of doing the basics well makes him an instant upgrade at second base or shortstop for about half the league, including more than a few teams that aim to make the playoffs. But the market wasn\u2019t exactly white-hot for him last winter; now he\u2019s a year older, coming off a serious injury and an underwhelming offensive season. \u2013 MB<\/p>\n Contract Estimate<\/p>\n Type Ben Clemens Median Crowdsource Avg Crowdsource 2026 Steamer Projections<\/p>\n PA 506 Player Notes Realmuto is clearly aging. From 2018 to 2022, he posted a 118 wRC+ and averaged 19 homers a year. This past season, he had a 94 wRC+ and hit just 12 homers. He slugged under .400 for the first time since his 11-game callup in 2014. His glove, which peaked at 15 to 18 runs per year above average, was seven runs below average in 2025. The days of consistent five-win production are clearly not coming back; Realmuto has been worth either 2.0 or 2.1 WAR in each of the past three seasons, and I would not bet on that trend reversing itself in his late 30s.<\/p>\n He\u2019s still the best free agent catcher on the market by a country mile. \u2013 MB<\/p>\n Contract Estimate<\/p>\n Type Ben Clemens Median Crowdsource Avg Crowdsource 2026 Steamer Projections<\/p>\n PA 560 Player Notes Not that older players are known for shrugging off injuries and never being troubled by them again, but Ozuna was playing through a \u201ctear\u201d<\/a> in his right hip in 2025, which could have been heavily responsible for the content of the preceding paragraph. His strange new passivity at the dish also offered traditional benefits, like more contact to go along with the highest walk (15.9%) and lowest chase (21.9%) rates of his career. And Ozuna\u2019s expected numbers (.366 xwOBA) represented a more mild decline from his 2024 fourth-place NL MVP finish than he actually experienced. <\/p>\n Over the past three years, Ozuna has hit the ninth-most homers in the sport and owns a slightly better wRC+ (137) than fellow free agent DH Kyle Schwarber (135), but that version of him isn\u2019t necessarily the one hitting the market. \u2013 JF<\/p>\n Contract Estimate<\/p>\n Type Ben Clemens Median Crowdsource Avg Crowdsource 2026 Steamer Projections<\/p>\n IP 68.0 Player Notes His 27.2% strikeout rate was meaningfully higher than his 17.1% career mark coming into the campaign. Increased velocity played a part in that. Throwing both a four-seamer and a two-seamer, Keller averaged 97.1 mph with his heaters, whereas last season that number was just 93.7. No longer just a hunter of ground balls, he is now a pitcher who misses bats.<\/p>\n Any expectation that Keller will remain a short-stint reliever comes with a caveat. While he thrived in that role in 2025, he could potentially return to the rotation. Asked about that possibility late in the year, he told me<\/a> that while he\u2019s been happy working as a reliever, he also loves starting. That subject may come up as he explores his options. \u2013 DL<\/p>\n Contract Estimate<\/p>\n Type Ben Clemens Median Crowdsource Avg Crowdsource 2026 Steamer Projections<\/p>\n IP 66.0 Player Notes Iglesias didn\u2019t entirely ditch the slider, but he dialed its usage down to 7.5% while relying more on his four-seamer. The results were night and day; from June 9 (the start of what turned out to be a three-week stretch in a setup role) through the end of the season, he allowed just one homer in 43.1 innings while posting a 1.25 ERA and 1.98 FIP and converting 21 of 22 save chances; his strikeout rate shot from 23.1% to 30.4%. Over his final 26 2\/3 innings from July 28 onward, he allowed just one run and 11 hits while striking out 27 and walking just six. <\/p>\n So it would seem Iglesias is back to being a reliable ninth-inning option, albeit an aging one whose average four-seam velocity dipped from 95.5 mph to 94.8. He\u2019s never been the flashiest closer, but the number of playoff teams with ninth-inning question marks suggests he\u2019ll find work. \u2013 JJ<\/p>\n Contract Estimate<\/p>\n Type Ben Clemens Median Crowdsource Avg Crowdsource 2026 Steamer Projections<\/p>\n IP 156.0 Player Notes Woodruff\u2019s fastball velocity was down in a big way this year, dropping from 95.9 mph in 2023 to 93 mph. That\u2019s a huge deal for anyone, but it\u2019s even bigger for a guy who throws either a fastball or a cutter a whopping 78% of the time. It\u2019s hard to know how much of that velocity Woodruff could get back next year, when he\u2019s \u2013 fingers and everything else crossed \u2013 fully healthy. He\u2019ll be 33 and the injury history is scary, but he\u2019s done nothing but pitch well, even with the diminished velo. Someone\u2019s got to take a chance that one of the better pitchers in the game can keep on pitching well, right? Right? \u2013 DA<\/p>\n Contract Estimate<\/p>\n Type Ben Clemens Median Crowdsource Avg Crowdsource 2026 Steamer Projections<\/p>\n IP 164.0 Player Notes Because Bassitt has dropped his arm slot a bit, his two most valuable pitches over the course of his career (his sinker and curveball) have also changed. If you drop your arm slot, the same grip you\u2019ve always used can result in an altered movement profile. Take Bassitt\u2019s curveball. It\u2019s dropping less than it ever has, but it has gained arm-side movement. That juxtaposes with how the change has affected his sinker, which helps explain lefties having more success against him. Bassitt had league average vertical movement for his entire career until this season. Now the sinker falls off harder, and he uses it more against right-handed hitters than he ever has. The velocity trends aren\u2019t ideal, but Bassitt is still limiting hard contact. The crafty righty may be in a new stage of his career, but he has proven he can adjust with father time. \u2013 ER<\/p>\n Contract Estimate<\/p>\n Type Ben Clemens Median Crowdsource Avg Crowdsource 2026 Steamer Projections<\/p>\n IP 165.0 Player Notes As Baumann noted when contrasting Giolito\u2019s 2025 season to 2021 (the last time he posted a sub-4.00 ERA), all three of his primary pitches suffered from diminished stuff this year, leading hitters to chase less on pitches outside the zone and whiff less overall; consequently, Giolito saw an eight percentage-point drop in his strikeout rate coupled with a spike in his hard contact. It\u2019s possible he\u2019s still rounding back into form following surgery, and that this version of Giolito is not the pitcher he will be moving forward. And given that his arm angle has dropped five or six degrees over the last few years, a few mechanical tweaks might be all he needs to get back on track. For now, Giolito profiles as a back-end starter with considerable upside, but also one with no guarantee that he\u2019ll be able to replicate his 2025 results. \u2013 KO<\/p>\n Contract Estimate<\/p>\n Type Ben Clemens Median Crowdsource Avg Crowdsource 2026 Steamer Projections<\/p>\n PA 609 Player Notes In 2025, over 154 games and 675 plate appearances, Arraez swung and missed just 65 times. Those are slow-pitch softball numbers, and from 2022 to 2023, Arraez rode that absurd contact ability to a .335 batting average, a 131 wRC+ and 6.1 WAR. But over the past two years, the dividends from this approach have dwindled. Arraez is walking and striking out less than ever, but he\u2019s also hitting the ball softer than ever. He\u2019s run a combined 107 wRC+ over the past two seasons, and because he\u2019s a defensive liability even at first base, he\u2019s put up just 2.0 total WAR.<\/p>\n That\u2019s not particularly close to even average production.<\/p>\n Arraez is entering his age-29 season, and this is his first crack at free agency. He\u2019s got a lot of baseball left in him. Considering his career .329 BABIP, it seems safe to assume that his 2025 mark of .289 was something of an aberration. But Arraez needs an awfully big bounce-back to become a three-win player again. Whoever signs him will need to possess some confidence that they can find a way to nudge his one-of-a-kind approach in the right direction. \u2013 DA<\/p>\n Contract Estimate<\/p>\n Type Ben Clemens Median Crowdsource Avg Crowdsource 2026 Steamer Projections<\/p>\n PA 333 Player Notes Jansen has always been one of the better blockers in the game, but the framing? Not so much. His receiving skills have been trending in the wrong direction for the last few seasons. The Rays advocated<\/a> for the knee down approach to help him out, as it typically facilitates improved framing, but it seemed to accelerate Jansen\u2019s decline instead. He was one of the worst catchers by framing runs this season, mostly deteriorating on his glove side and at bottom of the zone. As a league average bat, Jansen has the profile to be a starting catcher if his defense, especially his framing, is decent. Without that, it\u2019s more likely he\u2019ll be viewed as a part-time guy with a much smaller share. \u2013 ER<\/p>\n Contract Estimate<\/p>\n Type Ben Clemens Median Crowdsource Avg Crowdsource 2026 Steamer Projections<\/p>\n PA 313 Player Notes Is he past his peak? Is there risk of a total WAR collapse? Probably. Caratini is 32 and his defensive numbers are down across the board, always a scary sign. You probably can\u2019t expect the OBP to carry all the way over, either; age and regression come for us all. But for a year, at a backup\u2019s salary? It\u2019s all about the framing. Relative to the other options for teams who want a capable backup catcher, Caratini is one of only two real choices, along with Danny Jansen. I think that means he\u2019ll get the standard good backup catcher deal, probably at a place where he wants to play given how many teams could use him. \u2013 BC<\/p>\n Contract Estimate<\/p>\n Type Ben Clemens Median Crowdsource Avg Crowdsource 2026 ZiPS Projections<\/p>\n IP 107.0 Player Notes There are all kinds of indicators here (especially the change in Ponce\u2019s physicality, and the stamina he\u2019s had across nearly 200 innings when you factor in his playoff starts) to suggest that this improvement is real, and that Ponce can fit into a good team\u2019s rotation. He\u2019ll bump 98, his curveball has gorgeous depth, his best splitters fall off the table, and he commands the same upper-80s cutter we saw from him while he was stateside. It\u2019s plausible that his curveball quality will dip with an MLB ball (there\u2019s at least some volatility to that part of his game), but Ponce\u2019s pure stuff looks better than Erick Fedde<\/a>\u2019s did when he came over on a two-year, $15 million deal a couple of years ago. \u2013 EL<\/p>\n Contract Estimate<\/p>\n Type Ben Clemens Median Crowdsource Avg Crowdsource 2026 Steamer Projections<\/p>\n IP 68.0 Player Notes At first, a search for Armstrong\u2019s signature skill feels fruitless. It\u2019s not quite missing bats (26.1% K%) because it certainly isn\u2019t generating chases (23.3%). It might be homer suppression (five allowed in 2025), but he doesn\u2019t get grounders (35.9%). Tons of strikes (58.9% zone rate) at average velocity (93-94 mph) would be an atypical calling card for a high-leverage reliever.<\/p>\n Instead, Armstrong\u2019s standout feature is a new sweeper that adheres to nominative determinism. No sweeper in baseball drops less, which keeps it uniquely on plane with a coffer of fastball shapes that lack outlier vertical movement. Limited to cameo appearances before last year, Armstrong threw the mid-80s breaker nearly a fourth of the time in 2025 and saw big league hitters bat .080 against it with a .120 slugging percentage. Finding a Stuff model that doesn\u2019t love a weird sweeper is as common as eyewitness sightings of The Easter Bunny, so there should be many teams convinced that Armstrong can handle the eighth inning, or perhaps a little more. \u2013 JF<\/p>\n Contract Estimate<\/p>\n Type Ben Clemens Median Crowdsource Avg Crowdsource 2026 Steamer Projections<\/p>\n IP 60.0 Player Notes Jansen\u2019s cutter remains damn good, justifying his decision to emphasize it instead of his sinker; he threw the cutter 81.6% of the time, down from 84.1% in 2024 but a substantially higher rate than during the 2019\u201323 span. Batters hit just .163, slugged .300, and whiffed 25.2% of the time against the pitch. They also went 2-for-27 with a 25% whiff rate against his slider, though he threw it just 7% of the time. <\/p>\n In other words, Jansen can still pitch, and has milestones on the horizon that could cement his legacy<\/a>; with three saves, he\u2019ll surpass Hall of Famer Lee Smith<\/a> for third all-time, and with 24, he\u2019ll join Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman<\/a> in the 500 save club. All else being equal, he may choose another summer closing for a second-division team instead of prioritizing a lower-leverage role with a contender. \u2013 JJ<\/p>\n Contract Estimate<\/p>\n Type Ben Clemens Median Crowdsource Avg Crowdsource 2026 Steamer Projections<\/p>\n IP 60.0 Player Notes The latest version of Ferguson made 70 appearances across stints with the Pirates and Mariners, and allowed just two home runs in 65 1\/3 innings. He was death on lefties, allowing just a .219 wOBA to same-handed hitters, and while his .311 wOBA against right-handed hitters probably precludes him from high-leverage work, it\u2019s survivable in the age of the three-batter minimum.<\/p>\n Ferguson will probably be highly sought-after this offseason, because unlike someone like Kyle Tucker or Pete Alonso, he\u2019s both useful and affordable for all 30 teams. It\u2019s notable that the five teams he\u2019s pitched for over the past three seasons include perennial contenders like the Dodgers, Astros, and Yankees, as well as the Pirates. Bad teams need relievers to tick the innings counter over; good teams need guys to eat up medium-leverage opportunities in the regular season. The Mariners recently found out what happens to pitchers like Ferguson in the playoffs (multiple runs allowed in two of his three postseason outings this year), but just getting there is half the battle. \u2013 MB<\/p>\n Contract Estimate<\/p>\n Type Ben Clemens Median Crowdsource Avg Crowdsource 2026 Steamer Projections<\/p>\n IP 66.0 Player Notes Pag\u00e1n had a great year in 2025; he posted his lowest ERA since 2019 and set new career highs in appearances and saves. While the Reds staggered around waiting for the Mets to collapse in September, Pag\u00e1n was one of Cincinnati\u2019s best players. In his final 12 appearances, he struck out 15 and allowed only one run and nine total baserunners. Over that critical last 10-day period, he saved five of Cincinnati\u2019s final six regular-season wins.<\/p>\n The South Carolina native turns 35 next May, but his fastball velocity actually went up in 2025, and he got his splitter to tunnel much better with his heater, leading to some of the best hard contact suppression numbers in baseball. The home run issues remain, so I don\u2019t think contenders will be lining up to throw big money at Pag\u00e1n to close, but he\u2019d be a good pickup for a rebuilding team with a need for quality relief innings and an eye toward flipping him to a contender next July. \u2013 MB<\/p>\n Contract Estimate<\/p>\n Type Ben Clemens Median Crowdsource Avg Crowdsource 2026 Steamer Projections<\/p>\n IP 67.0 Player Notes From his return through the end of the season, his fastball was ineffective. The precision he had at the top of the zone with the pitch was suddenly gone. And at 94-95 mph, that isn\u2019t going to cut it, no matter how good Weaver\u2019s changeup was and is. The confidence that Aaron Boone<\/a> had in him deteriorated. He gave up 10 runs in 9 1\/3 innings during September. Then, when given a few chances in the playoffs, he gave up five runs across three appearances and only got a single out. Now Weaver finds himself in a tough position. He\u2019s a good candidate for a bounce back from his rough second half \u2013 his velocity and movement during his 2025 swoon were consistent with what he showed during his 2024 dominance \u2013 but it\u2019s likely that his true talent lies somewhere in between. \u2013 ER<\/p>\n Contract Estimate<\/p>\n Type Ben Clemens Median Crowdsource Avg Crowdsource 2026 Steamer Projections<\/p>\n IP 66.0 Player Notes Given the platoon split, Milner\u2019s probably isn\u2019t suited to making scripted eighth inning setup appearances, but if you need to get a lefty out, and you\u2019re in a situation where you\u2019re not afraid of him facing a potent right-handed hitter, Milner is a highly useful role player. I would guess he ends up with a one-year contract in 2026. \u2013 DS<\/p>\n Contract Estimate<\/p>\n Type Ben Clemens Median Crowdsource Avg Crowdsource 2026 Steamer Projections<\/p>\n IP 63.0 Player Notes A split-finger fastball is Finnegan\u2019s best pitch, and he began utilizing it more after moving to Motown. The Detroit native threw 67.7% four-seamers and 29.6% splitters this season with the Nats, compared to 40.9% four-seamers and 54.8% splitters with his hometown team. As he told me shortly before landing on the shelf, \u201cI\u2019m basically doing what I\u2019ve always done well, but maybe I just haven\u2019t utilized [the splitter] to its full capabilities. The Tigers have a lot of trust in my offspeed, so they\u2019re telling me to go out there and use it.\u201d<\/p>\n The results speak for themselves. Over 16 appearances comprising 18 innings, Finnegan fashioned a 1.50 ERA, a 1.97 FIP, and a 34.8% strikeout rate. Continued reliance on his splitter seems like a given, but which team\u2019s uniform he\u2019ll be wearing next year is currently unknown. Whichever team it might be, Finnegan could be the answer to their ninth-inning question. \u2013 DL<\/p>\n Contract Estimate<\/p>\n Type Ben Clemens Median Crowdsource Avg Crowdsource 2026 Steamer Projections<\/p>\n IP 144.0 Player Notes But in between all that\u2026 he kinda carved? <\/p>\n From the start of April through the end of May, Mahle went five or more innings and allowed two runs or fewer in 10 of his 11 starts. Relying on his plus command and increased use of a splitter to avoid hard contact (37.1% hard-hit), Mahle finished 2025 with an extremely peripheral-defying 2.18 ERA in 86 2\/3 innings. Lacking premium velocity, bat-missing secondaries, or the ability to keep the ball on the ground is an insecure means of getting outs even if Mahle were coming off a run of good health. He sure isn\u2019t, which likely resigns him to the best one-year make-good offer the market can bear. \u2013 JF<\/p>\n Contract Estimate<\/p>\n Type Ben Clemens Median Crowdsource Avg Crowdsource 2026 Steamer Projections<\/p>\n IP 175.0 Player Notes Not bad for a former 11th-round draft pick who was largely an afterthought on most prospect lists. When he was first featured here at FanGraphs in an August 2015 Sunday Notes column<\/a>, I wrote that \u201cyou\u2019ve probably never heard of Zack Littell.\u201d That remained mostly true for another handful of years.<\/p>\n
\nYears
\nAAV
\nTotal<\/p>\n
\n10
\n$37.0 M
\n$370.0 M<\/p>\n
\n8
\n$35.0 M
\n$280.0 M<\/p>\n
\n8.5
\n$34.9 M
\n$296.7 M<\/p>\n
\nBB%
\nK%
\nAVG
\nOBP
\nSLG
\nwOBA
\nwRC+
\nOff
\nDef
\nWAR<\/p>\n
\n13.6%
\n15.2%
\n.267
\n.371
\n.481
\n.366
\n136
\n29.6
\n-9.2
\n4.4<\/p>\n
As I mentioned in the introduction, Tucker is the top free agent in the class, but he\u2019s not in the same category as the market-topping stars who have signed record-setting deals in recent years. The teams most interested in him will be those that consider his results from 2024 and the first half of this year to be close to his true talent level. That would mean that the second half of this year, and of course the 110 missed games in the past two years, are just noise. I believe that a few teams will come to that conclusion, and that Tucker will sign an enormous deal, but one that falls meaningfully short of the huge deals of recent years.<\/p>\n
Will the real Kyle Tucker please stand up? Acquired from the Astros in a December 2024 blockbuster, Tucker hit .291\/.395\/.537 (157 wRC+) with 17 homers through the end of June. He then slipped into a protracted slump at the start of July, and for a 39-game stretch hit .184\/.321\/.228 with just one homer. On August 21, the Cubs revealed<\/a> that Tucker had played through a hairline fracture in his right ring finger, suffered during a June 1 slide; the injury didn\u2019t align with his drop in production, but the announcement, which followed a brief benching for a mental and mechanical reset, seemed to provide a jolt. He homered three times in two days and tore the cover off the ball for two weeks, though a left calf strain sidelined him for most of September.<\/p>\n
\nYears
\nAAV
\nTotal<\/p>\n
\n4
\n$35.0 M
\n$140.0 M<\/p>\n
\n5
\n$31.0 M
\n$155.0 M<\/p>\n
\n4.82
\n$31.8 M
\n$153.5 M<\/p>\n
\nBB%
\nK%
\nAVG
\nOBP
\nSLG
\nwOBA
\nwRC+
\nOff
\nDef
\nWAR<\/p>\n
\n10.5%
\n13.8%
\n.261
\n.346
\n.440
\n.341
\n119
\n12.9
\n1.7
\n3.9<\/p>\n
Former Astros are going to be a hot commodity this winter. Bregman impressed in his first post-Houston season, at least for as long as he was healthy; he missed nearly two months with a quad strain and lost a meaningful amount of power after returning. Even with the missed time and the slow finish, though, his combination of solid defense at third base, patience at the plate, and extra-base hits fueled by the Green Monster made him one of Boston\u2019s best players on the year. As expected, he opted out of the two years and $80 million remaining on his contract (more like $63 million after accounting for the extreme deferrals in that deal).<\/p>\n
For a while there, it looked like the plan had worked perfectly. Through August 22, despite missing a month-and-a-half with a quad strain, Bregman had played 83 games with a 155 wRC+. He was slashing .309\/.393\/.540 with 24 home runs. He made the Red Sox forget all about the incumbent All-Star third baseman who\u2019d spent the past seven seasons as the face of the franchise. As planned, Bregman could opt out of his huge, short deal in order to get a huge, long deal. Then the bottom fell out. From August 23 on, he batted .180 with a 48 wRC+ and two homers.<\/p>\n
\nYears
\nAAV
\nTotal<\/p>\n
\n5
\n$31.0 M
\n$155.0 M<\/p>\n
\n5
\n$26.0 M
\n$130.0 M<\/p>\n
\n5.05
\n$26.5 M
\n$133.8 M<\/p>\n
\nBB%
\nK%
\nGB%
\nERA
\nFIP
\nxFIP
\nWAR
\nRA9-WAR<\/p>\n
\n9.0%
\n27.6%
\n38.2%
\n3.61
\n3.59
\n3.71
\n3.8
\n3.6<\/p>\n
Cease is one of three pitchers who you could reasonably consider the best available this winter, and he\u2019s the one with the loudest tools. His slider is one of the best in baseball, and he\u2019s worked diligently to reshape his four-seam fastball into a bat-missing option, culminating in a career-high swinging strike rate on the pitch in 2025. He also made a full complement of starts for the sixth straight year, a shocking statistic for a starting pitcher with his combination of velocity and spin.<\/p>\n
A cursory glance might suggest that Cease had a down year in 2025, going 8-12 with a 4.55 ERA for the Padres and potentially affecting his free agent payout significantly. Fortunately for him, Cease\u2019s free agent case will be assessed by today\u2019s front offices, not those of 1995, and his most recent season looks a lot like his last several. There\u2019s nothing lurking in his Statcast data to indicate that his 3.56 FIP in 2025 or his 3.37 FIP over the last five seasons is misleading; his hard-hit rate is consistent with good performance, and he missed bats as well as he ever has. At .320, his BABIP was on the high side for the second year in the last three, as he continued his pattern of alternating between great and terrible BABIP seasons, but ZiPS doesn\u2019t see anything worrisome in his hit data, and like Steamer (.290 projected 2026 BABIP), sees him settling in the middle.<\/p>\n
\nYears
\nAAV
\nTotal<\/p>\n
\n5
\n$30.0 M
\n$150.0 M<\/p>\n
\n5
\n$28.0 M
\n$140.0 M<\/p>\n
\n4.84
\n$27.8 M
\n$134.4 M<\/p>\n
\nBB%
\nK%
\nGB%
\nERA
\nFIP
\nxFIP
\nWAR
\nRA9-WAR<\/p>\n
\n7.9%
\n22.5%
\n55.9%
\n3.47
\n3.47
\n3.41
\n3.7
\n3.8<\/p>\n
If your team has multiple excellent defensive infielders, they\u2019re probably pursuing Valdez this winter. He\u2019s one of the premier groundball pitchers in the league, the rare hurler whose outlier skills will look extremely different based on who\u2019s standing behind him. Conversely, that makes him more or less immune to stadium effects. There\u2019s not much reason to put Valdez in Seattle, for example, because he doesn\u2019t need help suppressing home runs. A natural home would be a team like the Brewers or Cubs; great defense in a neutral ballpark. <\/p>\n
Even the most risk averse teams should be salivating as Valdez enters free agency. He has no meaningful red flags. Maybe his age counts as a yellow flag \u2014 next year will be his age-32 season \u2014and all pitchers come with a flag for injury risk, but Valdez has been durable to this point in his career. He missed a few weeks in 2024 with elbow inflammation, but still made 28 starts and pitched to a 2.91 ERA that year. Otherwise, Valdez has been as consistent as they come, throwing at least 175 innings in each of the last four seasons, while maintaining a 24% strikeout rate and an 8% walk rate, with an ERA- and FIP- that place him around 20% better than league average. <\/p>\n
\nYears
\nAAV
\nTotal<\/p>\n
\n5
\n$28.0 M
\n$140.0 M<\/p>\n
\n5
\n$27.0 M
\n$135.0 M<\/p>\n
\n5.01
\n$27.3 M
\n$136.7 M<\/p>\n
\nBB%
\nK%
\nAVG
\nOBP
\nSLG
\nwOBA
\nwRC+
\nOff
\nDef
\nWAR<\/p>\n
\n8.2%
\n15.0%
\n.267
\n.330
\n.450
\n.335
\n115
\n12.0
\n-4.7
\n3.0<\/p>\n
I\u2019ve spent a lot of time contemplating Bellinger in the context of free agency thanks to his up-and-down career and the complicated contract structures that keep granting him more opportunities to hit the market. He just declined his player option, and this time around, I expect him to pursue a longer-term arrangement. Fortunately for Bellinger, 2025 was one of the best years of his post-MVP second act, and his combination of defensive versatility and resurgent offense means that a ton of teams will be interested in giving him what he\u2019s looking for.<\/p>\n
Bellinger flourished in the Bronx this season. His solid all-around play, relentless pursuit of contact, and ability to pull the ball in a park that heavily favors it combined for his best season by WAR aside from his 2019 MVP run. It was all very good other than his poor (albeit short) postseason showing. Even so, questions about Bellinger\u2019s ability to perform year in and year out remain, and that\u2019s largely due to peripherals that haven\u2019t changed all that much since he bounced back in 2023, when he remade his offensive profile.<\/p>\n
\nYears
\nAAV
\nTotal<\/p>\n
\n3
\n$35.0 M
\n$105.0 M<\/p>\n
\n4
\n$28.0 M
\n$112.0 M<\/p>\n
\n4.12
\n$27.9 M
\n$115.0 M<\/p>\n
\nBB%
\nK%
\nAVG
\nOBP
\nSLG
\nwOBA
\nwRC+
\nOff
\nDef
\nWAR<\/p>\n
\n15.0%
\n28.0%
\n.227
\n.351
\n.481
\n.357
\n130
\n22.5
\n-17.0
\n2.9<\/p>\n
If you try to approximate Schwarber\u2019s market based on the WAR projections you see above, you\u2019re going to come up short. Teams are no dummies, and that number doesn\u2019t do a good job of capturing Schwarber\u2019s total value. He\u2019s one of the best 15 or so hitters in the majors, and defensive ability matters far less when that\u2019s the case. Someone has to play DH for every team, and Schwarber represents an upgrade for every team save the Dodgers and perhaps the Astros. <\/p>\n
Schwarber is coming off the best of his four seasons with the Phillies, as he set career highs in homers (56), wRC+ (152, via a .240\/.365\/.563 line), slugging percentage, and WAR (4.9). His season was no fluke either, in that he hit the ball harder than ever, setting highs in average exit velocity (94.3 mph), barrel rate (20.8%), hard-hit rate (59.6%), xSLG (.601), and xwOBA (.414), and maximized that impact by trimming his strikeout rate to it its lowest since 2021 (27.2%). For the second season in a row, the Phillies maximized the value they got from Schwarber by keeping him out of the outfield as much as possible, playing him in left just eight times in 2025 after doing so five times in 2024 \u2014 a wise decision given that he totaled -37 FRV and -34 DRS in 242 games in left field in 2022\u201323. <\/p>\n
\nYears
\nAAV
\nTotal<\/p>\n
\n4
\n$30.0 M
\n$120.0 M<\/p>\n
\n4
\n$26.7 M
\n$107.0 M<\/p>\n
\n4.3
\n$26.8 M
\n$115.2 M<\/p>\n
\nBB%
\nK%
\nAVG
\nOBP
\nSLG
\nwOBA
\nwRC+
\nOff
\nDef
\nWAR<\/p>\n
\n9.6%
\n23.3%
\n.250
\n.334
\n.484
\n.350
\n125
\n17.8
\n-15.5
\n2.6<\/p>\n
After accepting a pillow contract last year, Alonso is hitting free agency again with a rosier trajectory. This time, he\u2019s coming off of his best offensive season instead of his worst one, and it\u2019s no small-sample fluke. His contact quality is as good as it\u2019s ever been, and his plate discipline hasn\u2019t slipped at all. Last year, an optimistic projection for Alonso would have been matching his career batting line at age 30. He cleared that bar with ease, and there\u2019s no question that his season has changed the projected arc of his career.<\/p>\n
Despite a stellar career at Florida, Alonso was only a second round pick in part because, for the better part of the last two decades, the righty-hitting college first basemen demographic has rarely yielded impactful major leaguers. It wasn\u2019t until his second full pro season, after Alonso exited A-ball, that he truly broke out with a 36-homer campaign split between Double- and Triple-A. That year, he tied Ibandel Isabel<\/a> for the minor league lead in homers, accepted an award for the feat at the Winter Meetings in Las Vegas, and later that evening, rolled some dice at The Cosmopolitan as the staff of our website strolled past him on our way to dinner. The following season, Alonso had a historic debut as he won NL Rookie of the Year and broke Aaron Judge\u2019s single-season rookie home run record with 53 bombs. <\/p>\n
\nYears
\nAAV
\nTotal<\/p>\n
\n7
\n$29.0 M
\n$203.0 M<\/p>\n
\n7
\n$27.0 M
\n$189.0 M<\/p>\n
\n7.11
\n$27.1 M
\n$192.2 M<\/p>\n
\nBB%
\nK%
\nAVG
\nOBP
\nSLG
\nwOBA
\nwRC+
\nOff
\nDef
\nWAR<\/p>\n
\n6.4%
\n16.0%
\n.292
\n.341
\n.453
\n.343
\n120
\n15.5
\n0.6
\n3.9<\/p>\n
I think that Bichette is going to get the second-largest guarantee of anyone this winter. Shortstops his age with excellent career offensive numbers don\u2019t grow on trees. The pitch book practically writes itself. Past market comps include Willy Adames<\/a>, Dansby Swanson<\/a>, Carlos Correa<\/a>, Xander Bogaerts<\/a>, Marcus Semien<\/a>, heck, even Javier B\u00e1ez<\/a>. All of those guys at least tickled the $200 million threshold. There\u2019s basically no chance that Bichette will fall short of that, at least in my estimation.<\/p>\n
Insight sometimes comes from unexpected sources, and on some days, actor Christoph Waltz saying \u201cthere can never be a whole without a contradiction\u201d on an episode of Mythical Kitchen cues that it\u2019s time to deeply discuss Bo Bichette. <\/p>\n
\nYears
\nAAV
\nTotal<\/p>\n
\n5
\n$26.0 M
\n$130.0 M<\/p>\n
\n5
\n$25.0 M
\n$125.0 M<\/p>\n
\n5.31
\n$25.2 M
\n$133.5 M<\/p>\n
\nBB%
\nK%
\nGB%
\nERA
\nFIP
\nxFIP
\nWAR
\nRA9-WAR<\/p>\n
\n6.8%
\n21.8%
\n48.1%
\n3.55
\n3.62
\n3.68
\n3.3
\n3.3<\/p>\n
For the past five years, Su\u00e1rez has been churning out three-win seasons like clockwork. He\u2019s done it in a way that is going to be very polarizing to potential suitors this winter, though. Modern pitching analysis leans heavily on measuring pitch characteristics to produce an approximation of raw stuff. Su\u00e1rez doesn\u2019t excel there; instead, he gets the job done by mixing five pitches and locating them with great precision. He\u2019s an archetypical crafty lefty, in other words, a throwback to a previous era. He\u2019s also hit the IL in three straight years, missing a month or so each time; in fact, he\u2019s never hit even 160 innings in his major league career.<\/p>\n
I signed up to write this blurb because my heart wants Su\u00e1rez to be ranked higher on this list. I get that he doesn\u2019t have the velocity, the strikeout rate, or the innings total of a Dylan Cease. I get it. But over his four full seasons as a starter, Su\u00e1rez has run a 3.59 ERA and a 3.56 FIP with a groundball rate above 50%. His 12.2 WAR ranks 19th among all pitchers.<\/p>\n
\nYears
\nAAV
\nTotal<\/p>\n
\n3
\n$25.0 M
\n$75.0 M<\/p>\n
\n4
\n$21.0 M
\n$84.0 M<\/p>\n
\n3.86
\n$21.2 M
\n$81.9 M<\/p>\n
\nBB%
\nK%
\nGB%
\nERA
\nFIP
\nxFIP
\nWAR
\nRA9-WAR<\/p>\n
\n8.9%
\n33.7%
\n42.1%
\n2.90
\n2.76
\n2.93
\n1.3
\n1.3<\/p>\n
D\u00edaz stands out from the crowd of relievers hitting the market this winter. He\u2019s one of the best closers in the game, and he\u2019s still at his peak; this season was the third time he\u2019s eclipsed 60 innings with an ERA below 2.00. If you want to lock down your bullpen, D\u00edaz is the best option for 2026 \u2013 and probably for 2027 and 2028, too, which is going to make him very attractive to every GM who thinks their team\u2019s window is open for the next few years. He\u2019s even been remarkably durable; the only extended absence of his career came courtesy of a fluke injury in the WBC that cost him the entire 2023 season.<\/p>\n
Since the December 2018 trade that brought him to Queens, and excepting a 2023 season lost to a ruptured right patellar tendon, D\u00edaz has alternated bad-to-mediocre seasons with excellent ones. Fortunately for his free agent prospects, the 2025 season was one of the latter, as he posted a 1.63 ERA and 2.28 FIP in 66 1\/3 innings while converting 28 of 31 save opportunities. His 38% strikeout rate ranked second among qualified relievers, and his 28.9% strikeout-to-walk differential third. Both marks were similar to 2024, but he cut his home run rate by more than half (from 1.17 per nine to 0.54), which in turn helped him do the same to his 3.52 ERA.<\/p>\n
\nYears
\nAAV
\nTotal<\/p>\n
\n4
\n$25.0 M
\n$100.0 M<\/p>\n
\n4
\n$20.0 M
\n$80.0 M<\/p>\n
\n4.29
\n$20.5 M
\n$87.8 M<\/p>\n
\nBB%
\nK%
\nAVG
\nOBP
\nSLG
\nwOBA
\nwRC+
\nOff
\nDef
\nWAR<\/p>\n
\n8.3%
\n15.0%
\n.272
\n.336
\n.459
\n.341
\n119
\n13.1
\n-10.0
\n2.5<\/p>\n
Naylor is pretty clearly a cut below Schwarber and Alonso as the best first base\/DH type on the market, but he\u2019s at the top of the second tier in my eyes. His batting line is heavier on on-base and lighter on slug than your average first baseman, but that doesn\u2019t lower my estimation of him at all. It would be one thing if he were a pure singles hitter or in the middle of a career year, but after four straight seasons of solid offense, there\u2019s little reason to doubt the way he gets to his results. Offensive value is offensive value at the end of the day.<\/p>\n
Recently, I heard someone say<\/a> that Naylor looks like a bouncer at a Tampa strip club (complimentary), and when a professional athlete can be accurately described in such a manner, it highlights the contradicting factors teams need to untangle before inking him to a free agent deal. On the one hand, Naylor has posted above-average offensive numbers over the last four seasons. He\u2019s consistently hit the ball hard and minimized strikeouts. His bat speed slowed in 2025, but a higher percentage of those slower, more controlled swings led to squared up balls. And he swung a whole lot. Naylor\u2019s best offensive seasons correlate with higher swing rates, and this year, his swing rate ranked 13th among qualified hitters. <\/p>\n
\nYears
\nAAV
\nTotal<\/p>\n
\n7
\n$22.0 M
\n$154.0 M<\/p>\n
\n6
\n$22.0 M
\n$132.0 M<\/p>\n
\n5.89
\n$22.2 M
\n$130.5 M<\/p>\n
\nHR
\nAVG
\nOBP
\nSLG
\nwOBA
\nwRC+
\nWAR<\/p>\n
\n26
\n.237
\n.363
\n.454
\n.353
\n126
\n3.4<\/p>\n
Murakami is the latest NPB superstar to head across the Pacific, and bidding frenzies have accompanied his compatriots each time. He\u2019s not subject to the international amateur bonus limits that capped the paydays for Shohei Ohtani and Roki Sasaki<\/a>, which means the sky is the limit. As a decorated home run hitter who hasn\u2019t yet turned 26, he\u2019s the kind of star teams dream about locking down. As a result, Murakami\u2019s deal is going to extend far into the future. I\u2019ve pegged seven years here, but a longer deal with a player option or even a shorter one with some kind of complicated extension-esque kicker wouldn\u2019t surprise me either.<\/p>\n
Murakami\u2019s coronation as a central figure in Japanese baseball occurred very quickly; he was on a bullet train to national fame in his late teens and early 20s. He spent just one season in the minors before he had an immense 2019 breakout and won Rookie of the Year. After that, Murakami cut his strikeout rate across the next three seasons and had some of the best single-year performances in the history of NPB. He won an MVP award and an Olympic gold medal in 2021, then had a Pantheon-level 10-WAR, 56-homer, Triple Crown campaign in 2022. At the time, it looked like he might become one of the best all-around power hitters on the planet.<\/p>\n
\nYears
\nAAV
\nTotal<\/p>\n
\n2
\n$25.0 M
\n$50.0 M<\/p>\n
\n3
\n$20.0 M
\n$60.0 M<\/p>\n
\n2.81
\n$21.1 M
\n$59.2 M<\/p>\n
\nBB%
\nK%
\nAVG
\nOBP
\nSLG
\nwOBA
\nwRC+
\nOff
\nDef
\nWAR<\/p>\n
\n8.4%
\n29.0%
\n.229
\n.306
\n.448
\n.325
\n108
\n4.2
\n-0.2
\n2.6<\/p>\n
Here\u2019s a great way to learn about the going rate for dingers. Su\u00e1rez doesn\u2019t offer a broad range of skills. He strikes out a lot and doesn\u2019t get on base at a high clip as a result. Defensively, he\u2019s well past his peak; a trip down the defensive spectrum seems imminent. He\u2019s 34, the third-oldest hitter on this list and the only one ranked remotely this high. That\u2019s all true \u2013 but he also hit 79 home runs combined in the last two years. Yeah, that\u2019ll play.<\/p>\n
Some hitters like to maintain their swing year to year, making only minor adjustments. Others, like Su\u00e1rez, are keen to make big changes and let their bodies figure out the rest. In 2023, his stance was essentially squared off to the pitcher, at four degrees. Then he opened up to 12 degrees in 2024, before opening up all the way to 24 degrees this past season. Su\u00e1rez also narrowed his feet<\/a> and moved up in the batter\u2019s box, and began using a Trajekt machine<\/a> more regularly. It all helped him hit 49 home runs in 2025, nearly matching his total from the previous two seasons combined (52), although his first half was far superior to his second (140 wRC+ vs. 103 wRC+). <\/p>\n
\nYears
\nAAV
\nTotal<\/p>\n
\n3
\n$18.0 M
\n$54.0 M<\/p>\n
\n3
\n$18.0 M
\n$54.0 M<\/p>\n
\n3.09
\n$17.6 M
\n$54.2 M<\/p>\n
\nBB%
\nK%
\nAVG
\nOBP
\nSLG
\nwOBA
\nwRC+
\nOff
\nDef
\nWAR<\/p>\n
\n12.7%
\n24.8%
\n.221
\n.327
\n.403
\n.321
\n105
\n3.7
\n0.3
\n2.3<\/p>\n
Get ready for some whiplash as teams contemplate Grisham. Two years ago, the Padres traded him in the Juan Soto deal, more or less to get out of his contract. He was a fourth outfielder in 2024, and not a particularly good one. But he put his patience-and-power combination to much better use in 2025 by occasionally attacking early in the count, correcting a long-standing weakness against pitchers who flooded the zone early. The result was a career-best batting line, but also one that looked very sustainable; he hits the snot out of the ball, doesn\u2019t chase much, and makes good contact in the strike zone.<\/p>\n
Two thoughts about Grisham: First, it\u2019s cool to have a few legitimate center fielders in the free agent mix this year. Second, I don\u2019t think this is the same guy from San Diego. I think he\u2019s been body-snatched.<\/p>\n
\nYears
\nAAV
\nTotal<\/p>\n
\n3
\n$18.0 M
\n$54.0 M<\/p>\n
\n4
\n$18.0 M
\n$72.0 M<\/p>\n
\n3.43
\n$18.6 M
\n$63.7 M<\/p>\n
\nBB%
\nK%
\nAVG
\nOBP
\nSLG
\nwOBA
\nwRC+
\nOff
\nDef
\nWAR<\/p>\n
\n11.1%
\n17.4%
\n.260
\n.346
\n.406
\n.331
\n112
\n7.9
\n-1.8
\n2.9<\/p>\n
I badly misjudged Torres\u2019 market last year. I thought that his age and production would merit a multi-year pact somewhere, but he signed a pillow contract with the Tigers, and quite frankly, I\u2019m wondering if he\u2019ll end up with another this year. He\u2019s not enough of an offensive force to ignore his defensive value; guys like Torres, who are 10% or so above league average with the bat, are great if they can pick it and uninteresting otherwise. He\u2019s been bad on the middle infield for years, though, which makes me think that he\u2019ll end up confined to a corner position before long, putting more pressure on his bat.<\/p>\n
Torres first hit the free agent market last offseason and there he stayed until signing a one-year, $15 million contract with Detroit in late December. The deal came in well below the three to five years and $18 million AAV many expected<\/a>. Not much has changed about Torres or his market over the last year. He remains the only second baseman among the Top 50 (depending on how you feel about Bo Bichette\u2019s long-term position), and though his offense did bounce back somewhat after a down 2024, his power remains depleted. Instead, Torres made gains by improving upon his already exceptional plate discipline. He cut his swing rate, leading to more quality contact and fewer whiffs. However, his production fell off significantly in August and September. He particularly struggled against fastballs and his bat tracking data suggests a timing issue, though a sports hernia<\/a> probably played a part. <\/p>\n
\nYears
\nAAV
\nTotal<\/p>\n
\n1
\n$22.0 M
\n$22.0 M<\/p>\n
\n4
\n$22.0 M
\n$88.0 M<\/p>\n
\n3.49
\n$22.2 M
\n$77.5 M<\/p>\n
\nBB%
\nK%
\nGB%
\nERA
\nFIP
\nxFIP
\nWAR
\nRA9-WAR<\/p>\n
\n8.1%
\n24.1%
\n40.9%
\n3.86
\n3.92
\n3.93
\n2.8
\n2.6<\/p>\n
I would have had King a lot higher if he hit free agency last year, but a down season, twice interrupted by injury, has introduced uncertainty into a previously slam dunk free agency case. He\u2019s now hurt basically every part of his arm \u2013 finger injury in 2021, elbow injury in 2022, shoulder injury in 2025 \u2013 and only has one full season of starting to his name. He was awesome in that season, and he\u2019s been incredible as a multi-inning reliever, but I don\u2019t know how you can look at King\u2019s profile and not worry about durability.<\/p>\n
In 2024, a 29-year-old King finally spent a full season starting and was impressive enough to garner down-ballot Cy Young support. His follow-up season didn\u2019t go as well, as he made just 15 starts due to bouts of shoulder and left knee inflammation. When he did pitch, he was kept on such a short leash that he averaged fewer than five innings per start; aside from a two-hit, 110-pitch shutout against the Rockies on April 13, he reached the six-inning and 100-pitch thresholds just once apiece.<\/p>\n
\nYears
\nAAV
\nTotal<\/p>\n
\n1
\n$21.0 M
\n$21.0 M<\/p>\n
\n2
\n$16.0 M
\n$32.0 M<\/p>\n
\n1.84
\n$16.8 M
\n$30.9 M<\/p>\n
\nBB%
\nK%
\nGB%
\nERA
\nFIP
\nxFIP
\nWAR
\nRA9-WAR<\/p>\n
\n7.2%
\n21.6%
\n41.5%
\n4.10
\n4.10
\n4.05
\n2.5
\n2.3<\/p>\n
If you\u2019re looking for bulk innings at a reasonable rate in 2026, Kelly is your guy. Aside from a shoulder strain that cost him half the 2024 season, he\u2019s been quite durable since returning to the US from a stint in Korea, and while his run prevention numbers aren\u2019t otherworldly, they\u2019re solidly above average. You might think that I\u2019m damning him with faint praise, but I\u2019d argue that I\u2019m praising him with faint damnation. If \u201cnot otherworldly\u201d is the biggest knock on a pitcher, there will be teams lined up around the block to sign that guy.<\/p>\n
Kelly has been sneaky good since returning stateside. Signed by the Arizona Diamondbacks in December 2018 following four seasons playing with the SK Wyverns of the KBO, Kelly has gone on to craft a 3.77 ERA over 172 starts comprising 1,008 1\/3 innings. His 10 most recent outings came with the Texas Rangers, who acquired the veteran right-hander from the Snakes at this summer\u2019s trade deadline for a trio of prospects.<\/p>\n
\nYears
\nAAV
\nTotal<\/p>\n
\n2
\n$20.0 M
\n$40.0 M<\/p>\n
\n2
\n$19.0 M
\n$38.0 M<\/p>\n
\n2.25
\n$18.8 M
\n$42.4 M<\/p>\n
\nBB%
\nK%
\nGB%
\nERA
\nFIP
\nxFIP
\nWAR
\nRA9-WAR<\/p>\n
\n5.3%
\n22.2%
\n32.3%
\n4.07
\n4.29
\n4.18
\n2.2
\n2.4<\/p>\n
A late entrant into this list, Imanaga hit free agency after the Cubs declined a three-year club option and Imanaga declined a player option. He\u2019ll surely receive a qualifying offer, and I actually think he\u2019s a decent bet to go back to the Cubs. The dual sticking points around his deal, in my opinion, were its length and the fact that the Cubs would have also owed 15% of the club option to the Yokohama BayStars, the NPB team that posted Imanaga two years ago. <\/p>\n
\nYears
\nAAV
\nTotal<\/p>\n
\n2
\n$18.0 M
\n$36.0 M<\/p>\n
\n2
\n$22.0 M
\n$44.0 M<\/p>\n
\n2.52
\n$21.4 M
\n$54.0 M<\/p>\n
\nBB%
\nK%
\nGB%
\nERA
\nFIP
\nxFIP
\nWAR
\nRA9-WAR<\/p>\n
\n7.5%
\n22.1%
\n42.2%
\n4.22
\n4.10
\n4.02
\n2.3
\n2.3<\/p>\n
After looking at Gallen\u2019s r\u00e9sum\u00e9 for about an hour, I came to an obvious conclusion: I\u2019m glad I\u2019m not a major league GM. I mean, what in the world are you supposed to do here? He looked like a down-ballot Cy Young type for three straight seasons, but then turned into a pumpkin in his walk year. And we\u2019re talking really bad: Every ERA estimator was in the mid-4.00s, Gallen\u2019s strikeout rate plummeted, he barely missed any bats, and our Stuff models think he soundly deserved his poor results. Even scarier, they think he actually fell off a cliff in 2024, with the results following a year later. <\/p>\n
Gallen was healthy but generally underwhelming in 2025, finishing with a career-worst ERA and FIP, not to mention his lowest strikeout rate to date. His second half was better than his first, but there were some negatives there as well; shedding a walk per nine is a good thing, but losing a strikeout per nine is most definitely not. The drop in BABIP he experienced from the first half to the second (.292 versus .242) can\u2019t really be attributed to anything Gallen did, either; if I put the batters against data into the ZiPS BABIP estimator and use Arizona\u2019s defense, the computer expected a .288 BABIP in the first half and a .282 in the second.<\/p>\n
\nYears
\nAAV
\nTotal<\/p>\n
\n5
\n$20.0 M
\n$100.0 M<\/p>\n
\n4
\n$16.0 M
\n$64.0 M<\/p>\n
\n4.36
\n$16.8 M
\n$73.0 M<\/p>\n
\nBB
\nSO
\nERA
\nERA+
\nFIP
\nWAR<\/p>\n
\n51
\n128
\n4.32
\n95
\n4.32
\n1.2<\/p>\n
Imai is the best pitcher heading stateside this year, and it\u2019s at least arguable that his 2025 was more impressive than anyone else outside of the top trio of arms. He posted a 1.92 ERA with peripherals to match for the Seibu Lions, and while offense is down in NPB, it\u2019s not that down. He has strikeout stuff, he doesn\u2019t walk a ton of guys, and he keeps the ball in the ballpark incredibly well given how much he\u2019s already limiting everything else. He has a weird pitch mix \u2013 splitter\/changeup combos don\u2019t grow on trees \u2013 but he might have four plus offerings, and I think he might have room to improve on several of them. He\u2019s still 27, and it\u2019s pretty easy to imagine him getting better from here given his career trajectory. <\/p>\n
Imai was the Lions\u2019 2016 first round pick out of a high school in Utsunomiya City, a metro roughly the size of Tucson that\u2019s about 80 miles north of Tokyo. He spent a year in the minors and then hopped right into the Lions rotation as a 20-year-old in 2018. Throughout his early- and mid-20s, Imai was a walk-prone (but effective) starter, and then took a step forward as a strike-thrower and innings-eater in each of the next three seasons, becoming one of NPB\u2019s best arms. Across the 2022-25 seasons, Imai halved his walk rate (from the 14% area to 7%), expanded his repertoire, and improved his fastball velocity even as his innings count grew north of 160 frames. He\u2019s had four consecutive seasons with an ERA under 2.50 (even while he was wild), and in 2025, he posted a 1.92 ERA and 2.01 FIP.<\/p>\n
\nYears
\nAAV
\nTotal<\/p>\n
\n4
\n$18.0 M
\n$72.0 M<\/p>\n
\n3
\n$16.0 M
\n$48.0 M<\/p>\n
\n3.47
\n$15.7 M
\n$54.4 M<\/p>\n
\nHR
\nAVG
\nOBP
\nSLG
\nwOBA
\nwRC+
\nWAR<\/p>\n
\n20
\n.252
\n.340
\n.451
\n.340
\n117
\n2.4<\/p>\n
Okamoto isn\u2019t the same kind of shooting star talent as Munetaka Murakami, but he\u2019s been the better hitter of the two corner infielders over the last three years. He hits for power and average, rarely strikes out, and consistently posts double-digit walk rates to boot. If you enjoyed the Blue Jays this October, he\u2019s their kind of hitter; he puts the ball in the air plenty and with authority, but his true standout skill is doing that without piling up strikeouts. As Eric noted in his scouting report<\/a>, Okamoto has also improved against high velocity fastballs in the past few years, which is a key point of failure for NPB hitters. <\/p>\n
Okamoto has been one of NPB\u2019s most productive power hitters since 2018, and until 2024, he had had six straight seasons of clubbing 30 or more home runs, including a 2023 campaign in which he hit 41 of them. It was at that point that public reports surfaced of MLB teams scouting Okamoto, reports that have continued throughout the last two seasons, culminating in a looming posting this winter. Though he\u2019s missed some time with injury (a sprained left elbow suffered during a collision cost him half of 2025), Okamoto has generated the two lowest strikeout rates of his career in 2024 (15.9%) and 2025 (11.3%), and slashed an incredible .327\/.416\/.598 (thanks in part to a career-high BABIP) in his platform season.<\/p>\n
\nYears
\nAAV
\nTotal<\/p>\n
\n3
\n$16.0 M
\n$48.0 M<\/p>\n
\n2
\n$15.0 M
\n$30.0 M<\/p>\n
\n2.53
\n$15.6 M
\n$39.4 M<\/p>\n
\nBB%
\nK%
\nGB%
\nERA
\nFIP
\nxFIP
\nWAR
\nRA9-WAR<\/p>\n
\n7.7%
\n25.9%
\n40.3%
\n3.52
\n3.57
\n3.68
\n0.8
\n0.8<\/p>\n
The Mets seem like the clear favorites to land Edwin D\u00edaz, which means that Suarez is going to be fielding a lot of calls from teams that badly need a great reliever. He just opted out of his deal with the Padres, and he\u2019s coming off of two straight years of elite results. As you\u2019ll see shortly, there aren\u2019t any other proven relievers currently pitching well, which means if you want a new closer in 2026 and you can\u2019t afford to have your new hire take a while getting up to speed, it\u2019s Suarez or a clearly inferior option. As a result, I think that he\u2019s going to get a deal that is well ahead of every player below him on this list. In other words, this is the big break point in these rankings. I only have one player below him getting three or more years, and I also have him down for $14 million more than anyone after him.<\/p>\n
Suarez enters free agency with a three-season track record as a high-leverage reliever and results about as consistent as they come. He had a down year in 2023, but only pitched in the second half of the season after missing the first half due to elbow inflammation. Since then, Suarez has logged two seasons with at least 65 innings pitched and a sub-75 ERA-. He falls short of the Elite Closer status, but he\u2019s been very good, nonetheless. <\/p>\n
\nYears
\nAAV
\nTotal<\/p>\n
\n2
\n$12.0 M
\n$24.0 M<\/p>\n
\n3
\n$14.0 M
\n$42.0 M<\/p>\n
\n2.47
\n$14.1 M
\n$34.8 M<\/p>\n
\nBB%
\nK%
\nGB%
\nERA
\nFIP
\nxFIP
\nWAR
\nRA9-WAR<\/p>\n
\n10.3%
\n30.0%
\n43.1%
\n3.24
\n3.28
\n3.42
\n0.8
\n0.9<\/p>\n
Yeah, like I said, the relievers behind Suarez all have some warts. For Williams, the wart is his bizarre 2025 season. He got traded to the Yankees before the year and for whatever reason, he never really got going. His stuff? Still outrageous. PitchingBot, our in-house pitch modeling system, has given his \u201cairbender\u201d changeup an 80 out of 80 in each of the last six years. It\u2019s an outlier, one of one. He struck out 35% of opposing batters and posted his lowest walk rate since 2020. This guy is one of the least solvable relievers in the entire world.<\/p>\n
I\u2019m fairly confident that Williams is still one of the best relievers in baseball. That said, there\u2019s no question that he is prone to command issues, and those issues led to his unicorn changeup getting hit way more than it ever has before for a solid chunk of the season. The .291 xwOBA hitters notched against it was the highest of his career. He may be flappable, but he\u2019s still got the juice. The gap between his 2.68 FIP and 4.79 ERA is the easiest defense of that, but to support the notion further, hitters chased more when facing him this season than they had during any other in his career. His zone contact rate was identical to the previous two seasons. He\u2019s still a very good, very effective reliever with the kind of stuff that makes hitters look like baby deer, even if he is different than he was before.<\/p>\n
\nYears
\nAAV
\nTotal<\/p>\n
\n2
\n$12.0 M
\n$24.0 M<\/p>\n
\n2
\n$10.8 M
\n$22.0 M<\/p>\n
\n1.86
\n$10.8 M
\n$20.1 M<\/p>\n
\nBB%
\nK%
\nGB%
\nERA
\nFIP
\nxFIP
\nWAR
\nRA9-WAR<\/p>\n
\n9.4%
\n28.7%
\n40.1%
\n3.33
\n3.38
\n3.55
\n0.8
\n0.8<\/p>\n
Like Williams, Helsley went to New York in 2025 and fell apart. Unlike Williams, his peripheral numbers pretty much tell the story. His strikeout rate dipped, his walk rate ballooned, and he surrendered louder contact. It doesn\u2019t explain a 7.20 ERA in his two months with the Mets, but sprinkle in some pitch tipping<\/a> and some bad sequencing, and ERA can get ugly pretty quickly. The question for acquiring teams isn\u2019t what happened in 2025; it\u2019s whether he\u2019ll repeat it in 2026. <\/p>\n
Helsley was selected in the fifth round of the 2015 draft out of Division II Northeastern State (they\u2019re the Riverhawks) and developed as a starter (paralleling fellow 2015 draftee Jordan Hicks<\/a>) until 2019, when he debuted in the majors as a reliever. He has remained one ever since. He became the Cardinals\u2019 closer, and at his best has been one of the nastier relievers in baseball, sitting 99 mph and bending in one of the game\u2019s best sliders en route to a couple of years with a K% north of 35%. <\/p>\n
\nYears
\nAAV
\nTotal<\/p>\n
\n2
\n$11.0 M
\n$22.0 M<\/p>\n
\n1
\n$8.0 M
\n$8.0 M<\/p>\n
\n1.58
\n$8.5 M
\n$13.4 M<\/p>\n
\nBB%
\nK%
\nGB%
\nERA
\nFIP
\nxFIP
\nWAR
\nRA9-WAR<\/p>\n
\n5.6%
\n15.9%
\n51.2%
\n4.07
\n4.06
\n4.07
\n0.2
\n0.2<\/p>\n
The last of this group of four relievers is also the most interesting case. Rogers definitely doesn\u2019t \u201clook the part.\u201d He throws underhand, with velo in the 80s. In terms of run prevention, though, he\u2019s been one of the best in the business for half a decade. The juxtaposition between appearance and results is matched by the mixed signals the market has sent Rogers. He got a late start and never really hit a big arbitration payday; in 2025, his last year of arb, he was paid $5.25 million. On the other hand, the Mets sent a strong package of players for Rogers at the deadline, and they treated him like a key reliever down the stretch.<\/p>\n
I have to admit to having a long-standing fetish for sidearmers and submariners. Pitcher was my best position in Little League, and without any data to use as evidence, I wager that I may have been the only Gen-Xer or elder millennial kid to model their windup after Terry Leach<\/a>, not Dwight Gooden<\/a> or Roger Clemens<\/a> or Nolan Ryan<\/a>. So I have a natural bias towards Rogers, such that he\u2019s usually on my roster in MLB The Show.<\/p>\n
\nYears
\nAAV
\nTotal<\/p>\n
\n2
\n$15.0 M
\n$30.0 M<\/p>\n
\n2
\n$12.0 M
\n$24.0 M<\/p>\n
\n2.29
\n$12.0 M
\n$27.3 M<\/p>\n
\nBB%
\nK%
\nAVG
\nOBP
\nSLG
\nwOBA
\nwRC+
\nOff
\nDef
\nWAR<\/p>\n
\n6.4%
\n24.1%
\n.245
\n.303
\n.389
\n.302
\n92
\n-4.2
\n0.6
\n1.4<\/p>\n
From 2022 to 2024, Bader ranked seventh among center fielders in fielding run value while running a wRC+ of 80. That\u2019s a valuable complementary piece, which is why the Twins brought him in to take on the busiest understudy role in baseball in 2025, backing up Byron Buxton<\/a>. Things didn\u2019t go as planned, though in a good way. First, Buxton stayed healthy and productive. Second, Bader really hit. He played in left and moved to Philadelphia when the Twins threw in the entire linen closet at the deadline. He finished with a 122 wRC+ and put up a career-high 3.2 WAR.<\/p>\n
\nYears
\nAAV
\nTotal<\/p>\n
\n2
\n$15.0 M
\n$30.0 M<\/p>\n
\n2
\n$12.0 M
\n$24.0 M<\/p>\n
\n2.28
\n$12.7 M
\n$29.0 M<\/p>\n
\nBB%
\nK%
\nAVG
\nOBP
\nSLG
\nwOBA
\nwRC+
\nOff
\nDef
\nWAR<\/p>\n
\n9.0%
\n19.0%
\n.265
\n.337
\n.422
\n.330
\n111
\n5.4
\n-9.7
\n1.4<\/p>\n
When O\u2019Hearn was featured here at FanGraphs back in late May, the first sentence of the piece<\/a> stated that he had been \u201cthe best hitter on an underachieving Baltimore Orioles team.\u201d That largely remained true (ditto the disappointing Orioles part of the equation), as the late-blooming first baseman\/DH went on to finish his 2025 Baltimore tenure with a 135 wRC+ over 361 plate appearances. O\u2019Hearn wasn\u2019t nearly as good after switching coasts at the trade deadline. Swapped to San Diego in an eight-player deal, he put up a solid yet unspectacular 112 wRC+ in 183 plate appearances with the Padres. All told, his 2025 output included a career-high 17 home runs and a 127 wRC+, as well as 3.0 WAR.<\/p>\n
\nYears
\nAAV
\nTotal<\/p>\n
\n2
\n$15.0 M
\n$30.0 M<\/p>\n
\n2
\n$14.3 M
\n$29.0 M<\/p>\n
\n2.53
\n$14.6 M
\n$37.0 M<\/p>\n
\nBB%
\nK%
\nAVG
\nOBP
\nSLG
\nwOBA
\nwRC+
\nOff
\nDef
\nWAR<\/p>\n
\n9.6%
\n20.2%
\n.252
\n.328
\n.441
\n.333
\n114
\n8.2
\n-4.1
\n2.3<\/p>\n
Ahead of his 10th season as a big league regular, Polanco changed his hitting guy, closed his stance<\/a>, tweaked his attack angle and had a career-best offensive campaign by wRC+ (132). Better yet for teams hoping to ride the wave, it was backloaded, as Polanco hit .282\/.348\/.551 after July 1. And it was undergirded by the best average and max exit velocity of his career, as well as the best hard-hit rate (45.8%). The switch-hitter\u2019s minuscule 15.6% strikeout rate not only arrested a three-year acceleration trend, but nearly cut his 2024 figure (29.2%) in half.<\/p>\n
\nYears
\nAAV
\nTotal<\/p>\n
\n2
\n$13.0 M
\n$26.0 M<\/p>\n
\n3
\n$15.0 M
\n$45.0 M<\/p>\n
\n2.72
\n$15.7 M
\n$42.6 M<\/p>\n
\nBB%
\nK%
\nAVG
\nOBP
\nSLG
\nwOBA
\nwRC+
\nOff
\nDef
\nWAR<\/p>\n
\n11.0%
\n18.0%
\n.244
\n.331
\n.376
\n.313
\n99
\n0.6
\n2.2
\n2.4<\/p>\n
We were pretty high on Kim last offseason, and for good reason: He\u2019s an average hitter overall who\u2019ll make good contact, take a walk, steal a base, and play good-to-great defense at multiple infield positions. The Rays don\u2019t spend big on free agents very often, but they gave Kim a contract worth $13 million in 2025, with a player option for 2026.<\/p>\n
\nYears
\nAAV
\nTotal<\/p>\n
\n2
\n$13.0 M
\n$26.0 M<\/p>\n
\n2
\n$15.0 M
\n$30.0 M<\/p>\n
\n2.13
\n$16.0 M
\n$34.1 M<\/p>\n
\nBB%
\nK%
\nAVG
\nOBP
\nSLG
\nwOBA
\nwRC+
\nOff
\nDef
\nWAR<\/p>\n
\n6.5%
\n24.1%
\n.246
\n.304
\n.395
\n.304
\n94
\n-4.4
\n12.2
\n1.8<\/p>\n
Realmuto turned 34 this past March. He\u2019s the only catcher in baseball to spend more than 5,000 innings at the position over the past five years. Over the past decade, he\u2019s caught 24% more innings than anyone else in the major leagues. He\u2019s spent more time behind the plate than Lard-Ass from Stand by Me. The Phillies talked a big game about easing Realmuto\u2019s workload this past season, replacing Vibes Guy Garrett Stubbs<\/a> with a real backup in Rafael March\u00e1n<\/a>. Realmuto still led the league in innings caught.<\/p>\n
\nYears
\nAAV
\nTotal<\/p>\n
\n1
\n$15.0 M
\n$15.0 M<\/p>\n
\n1
\n$12.0 M
\n$12.0 M<\/p>\n
\n1.32
\n$12.7 M
\n$16.7 M<\/p>\n
\nBB%
\nK%
\nAVG
\nOBP
\nSLG
\nwOBA
\nwRC+
\nOff
\nDef
\nWAR<\/p>\n
\n12.1%
\n25.0%
\n.240
\n.335
\n.438
\n.336
\n115
\n8.2
\n-14.0
\n1.3<\/p>\n
This is a soon-to-be 35-year-old who has played 14 innings of outfield defense in the last three years, so there are some decline indicators to discuss. Ozuna\u2019s 2025 (.232\/.355\/.400, 114 wRC+) was a pronounced step back from the two years that preceded it, which were the best of his career. It\u2019s not just that he barely hit more than half (21) as many homers as the two years before (40, 39), he also lost nearly nine percentage points on his hard-hit rate (44.4%). His normally prodigious all-fields juice was mostly resigned to the pull side, his annual immolation of fastballs slipped (he slugged a mere .474 against them) as he became radically more passive in the zone, and Statcast had Ozuna losing a tick of bat speed and producing fewer impact swings.<\/p>\n
\nYears
\nAAV
\nTotal<\/p>\n
\n2
\n$12.0 M
\n$24.0 M<\/p>\n
\n2
\n$6.0 M
\n$12.0 M<\/p>\n
\n2.03
\n$6.8 M
\n$13.9 M<\/p>\n
\nBB%
\nK%
\nGB%
\nERA
\nFIP
\nxFIP
\nWAR
\nRA9-WAR<\/p>\n
\n8.7%
\n20.9%
\n48.7%
\n3.92
\n4.00
\n4.00
\n0.3
\n0.4<\/p>\n
Relievers can be volatile season-to-season, and that\u2019s especially true when the pitcher in question\u2019s accompanying track record is more mixed-bag than Mr. Dependable. Keller\u2019s r\u00e9sum\u00e9 resembles that of the former, which makes him an especially intriguing candidate in this year\u2019s free agent class. A former starter who battled Thoracic Outlet Syndrome before being signed off the scrap heap by the Chicago Cubs in January, Keller came into the year having logged a 5.18 ERA over the past four campaigns. Rejuvenated by a return to full health and an opportunity with a new team, he proceeded to saw off bats. Enjoying a career-best season, Keller came out of the bullpen 68 times to the tune of a 2.07 ERA and a 2.93 FIP.<\/p>\n
\nYears
\nAAV
\nTotal<\/p>\n
\n2
\n$12.0 M
\n$24.0 M<\/p>\n
\n1
\n$12.0 M
\n$12.0 M<\/p>\n
\n1.55
\n$11.4 M
\n$17.7 M<\/p>\n
\nBB%
\nK%
\nGB%
\nERA
\nFIP
\nxFIP
\nWAR
\nRA9-WAR<\/p>\n
\n7.0%
\n25.4%
\n36.8%
\n3.67
\n3.67
\n3.83
\n0.6
\n0.6<\/p>\n
Iglesias posted his highest ERA (3.21) and FIP (3.31) since 2019 in a season so uneven that he temporarily lost his job as closer. Through June 5, he served up seven homers in 24 innings, blew four of 12 save opportunities, and was torched for a 6.75 ERA and 5.72 FIP. To that point, his slider was getting hammered, accounting for five of those homers as batters hit .583 and slugged 1.833 against the pitch, which he was throwing 13.5% of the time.<\/p>\n
\nYears
\nAAV
\nTotal<\/p>\n
\n2
\n$17.0 M
\n$34.0 M<\/p>\n
\n3
\n$22.0 M
\n$66.0 M<\/p>\n
\n2.59
\n$22.2 M
\n$57.7 M<\/p>\n
\nBB%
\nK%
\nGB%
\nERA
\nFIP
\nxFIP
\nWAR
\nRA9-WAR<\/p>\n
\n6.5%
\n24.3%
\n37.6%
\n3.86
\n3.86
\n3.87
\n2.9
\n2.5<\/p>\n
It keeps pouring on Brandon Woodruff, and Brandon Woodruff keeps splashing through the puddles. After missing most of the 2023 season with shoulder inflammation, Woodruff missed the entire 2024 season with a torn capsule in that same shoulder, then suffered a lat strain just a few weeks after he finally returned in 2025. He\u2019s made just 23 starts and thrown 131 2\/3 innings over the past three seasons. But in those 23 starts, he\u2019s gone 12-3 with a 2.73 ERA and 3.39 FIP. In 2025, he ran the highest strikeout rate and lowest walk rate of his entire career.<\/p>\n
\nYears
\nAAV
\nTotal<\/p>\n
\n1
\n$17.0 M
\n$17.0 M<\/p>\n
\n2
\n$18.0 M
\n$36.0 M<\/p>\n
\n1.65
\n$18.0 M
\n$29.7 M<\/p>\n
\nBB%
\nK%
\nGB%
\nERA
\nFIP
\nxFIP
\nWAR
\nRA9-WAR<\/p>\n
\n8.1%
\n21.1%
\n43.8%
\n4.15
\n4.18
\n4.17
\n2.1
\n2.0<\/p>\n
Bassitt has posted at least 2 WAR in every full season since 2019. He has been as consistent as you could ask for. His 3.96 ERA, 4.01 FIP and 170 innings across 31 starts in 2025 are a testament to that consistency, which is a credit to him even as his stuff has taken a step back. If you plot a time series chart of his velocity, movement, and location over the last seven seasons, you\u2019ll see the changes. Bassitt has lost a few ticks, changed his arm slot pretty significantly from his classic over-the-top mechanics, and become more susceptible to the platoon advantage.<\/p>\n
\nYears
\nAAV
\nTotal<\/p>\n
\n2
\n$14.0 M
\n$28.0 M<\/p>\n
\n2
\n$18.0 M
\n$36.0 M<\/p>\n
\n2.31
\n$18.0 M
\n$41.6 M<\/p>\n
\nBB%
\nK%
\nGB%
\nERA
\nFIP
\nxFIP
\nWAR
\nRA9-WAR<\/p>\n
\n8.8%
\n20.5%
\n37.0%
\n4.69
\n4.70
\n4.59
\n1.2
\n1.1<\/p>\n
Giolito made his 2025 debut in late April following rehab from a UCL repair in January of 2024. He went on to post an 80 ERA-, suggesting an above-average performance, but as Michael Baumann wrote<\/a> back in September, his top line results provide cover for some pretty ugly underlying metrics. Consider the actual batting average and wOBA he allowed (.236 and .301) compared to the expected numbers based on contact quality (.274 and .353), which push his xERA to 5.01, as opposed to the 3.41 ERA he actually posted. And unfortunately, Giolito is not one of those pitchers who routinely outperforms his expected stats.<\/p>\n
\nYears
\nAAV
\nTotal<\/p>\n
\n1
\n$11.0 M
\n$11.0 M<\/p>\n
\n2
\n$14.0 M
\n$28.0 M<\/p>\n
\n2.43
\n$13.9 M
\n$33.7 M<\/p>\n
\nBB%
\nK%
\nAVG
\nOBP
\nSLG
\nwOBA
\nwRC+
\nOff
\nDef
\nWAR<\/p>\n
\n5.2%
\n4.6%
\n.305
\n.344
\n.403
\n.326
\n109
\n6.1
\n-12.1
\n1.5<\/p>\n
In an earlier comment, I mentioned that I\u2019d picked Ranger Su\u00e1rez because I felt strongly about him. I picked Arraez for the opposite reason. I don\u2019t have the faintest idea how a front office would go about valuing a player like him (a phrase I probably should have avoided, because there is no such thing as another player like him).<\/p>\n
\nYears
\nAAV
\nTotal<\/p>\n
\n1
\n$9.0 M
\n$9.0 M<\/p>\n
\n1
\n$8.0 M
\n$8.0 M<\/p>\n
\n1.54
\n$8.5 M
\n$13.1 M<\/p>\n
\nBB%
\nK%
\nAVG
\nOBP
\nSLG
\nwOBA
\nwRC+
\nOff
\nDef
\nWAR<\/p>\n
\n10.6%
\n22.8%
\n.220
\n.313
\n.397
\n.312
\n99
\n-0.9
\n4.3
\n1.0<\/p>\n
For the last handful of years, Jansen has struck me as one of the last of his kind. He was one of a few catchers in the league who spent most of their time in a traditional stance, eschewing the one-knee down trend that has swept the majors. Between that, the tape he wears on both wrists, and his lack of batting gloves, you could have plopped Jansen into the \u201880s or \u201890s, and he would have fit right in. But this season, Jansen got with the times, using the knee-down approach at a league average clip of 95%.<\/p>\n
\nYears
\nAAV
\nTotal<\/p>\n
\n1
\n$9.0 M
\n$9.0 M<\/p>\n
\n1
\n$6.0 M
\n$6.0 M<\/p>\n
\n1.53
\n$6.6 M
\n$10.1 M<\/p>\n
\nBB%
\nK%
\nAVG
\nOBP
\nSLG
\nwOBA
\nwRC+
\nOff
\nDef
\nWAR<\/p>\n
\n7.5%
\n18.1%
\n.254
\n.322
\n.399
\n.316
\n102
\n-0.9
\n1.4
\n1.1<\/p>\n
Caratini is an ideal part-time catcher, a seasoned pro who not only won\u2019t kill you with his bat, but will actually add something at the plate. In his two-year stint in Houston, he got on base at an impressive .329 clip. Catchers as a whole ran a .305 OBP in 2025. Imagine what backup catcher statistics look like. He doesn\u2019t hit for much power, but so what? He had double digit homers as a backup catcher; the lack of power is relative to league average, not relative to the cohort of guys he\u2019ll be compared to. He\u2019s a respected veteran and trusted game caller, personal catcher for years to Yu Darvish<\/a>, the man of a million pitches. <\/p>\n
\nYears
\nAAV
\nTotal<\/p>\n
\n3
\n$8.0 M
\n$24.0 M<\/p>\n
\n2
\n$8.0 M
\n$16.0 M<\/p>\n
\n1.92
\n$8.7 M
\n$16.7 M<\/p>\n
\nBB
\nSO
\nERA
\nERA+
\nFIP
\nWAR<\/p>\n
\n34
\n127
\n4.21
\n98
\n3.94
\n1.3<\/p>\n
Ponce was Milwaukee\u2019s second rounder way back in 2015 out of Division-II Cal Poly Pomona and was developed as a starter until the middle of 2018, when he became a long reliever. The following year, Ponce was sent to Pittsburgh in exchange for Jordan Lyles<\/a>, and though he exhausted rookie eligibility as a Pirate, he never really grabbed hold of a role (he has just 55.1 big league innings to his name), and in 2022, he departed for Japan. Ponce didn\u2019t get much better abroad until 2025, when he transitioned from NPB to the KBO, dramatically improved his conditioning, added two ticks to his fastball, and began to dominate hitters with a more split-looking offspeed pitch than before. He had a 1.89 ERA in an incredible 180 2\/3 innings, struck out 36% of opponents and walked just 6%, and even at the very end of October, he was parked in the 94-97 mph range during Hanwha\u2019s playoff run.<\/p>\n
\nYears
\nAAV
\nTotal<\/p>\n
\n1
\n$9.0 M
\n$9.0 M<\/p>\n
\n1
\n$4.5 M
\n$4.5 M<\/p>\n
\n1.21
\n$4.9 M
\n$5.9 M<\/p>\n
\nBB%
\nK%
\nGB%
\nERA
\nFIP
\nxFIP
\nWAR
\nRA9-WAR<\/p>\n
\n7.7%
\n23.3%
\n38.0%
\n3.94
\n3.95
\n4.11
\n0.4
\n0.4<\/p>\n
Armstrong has pitched for eight major league teams and been designated for assignment seven times; he didn\u2019t enjoy a full big league season until he was 28. His breakout 2023 campaign with Tampa Bay (1.38 ERA in 52 innings) didn\u2019t slow the churn, as in typical Rays fashion, he was flipped to the Cardinals for Dylan Carlson<\/a> at the 2024 deadline and then was DFA\u2019d twice more before the close of that year. It\u2019s on a humble one-year, $1.125 million contract with the Rangers that Armstrong racked up a 2.31 ERA in a career-high 74 innings, recorded a career-high nine saves while working in a variety of roles, and accumulated roughly 30% of his career WAR (4.6) in a single season (1.4). <\/p>\n
\nYears
\nAAV
\nTotal<\/p>\n
\n1
\n$9.0 M
\n$9.0 M<\/p>\n
\n1
\n$9.0 M
\n$9.0 M<\/p>\n
\n1.02
\n$8.9 M
\n$9.0 M<\/p>\n
\nBB%
\nK%
\nGB%
\nERA
\nFIP
\nxFIP
\nWAR
\nRA9-WAR<\/p>\n
\n8.7%
\n25.0%
\n29.9%
\n4.10
\n4.07
\n4.34
\n0.3
\n0.3<\/p>\n
Pitching for the Angels, his third team in four seasons since departing the Dodgers in free agency, Jansen posted a 2.59 ERA, his lowest mark since 2021, while converting 29 saves in 30 chances. Underneath the hood, however, he showed some warning signs. He struck out a career-low 24.4% of hitters and served up his highest home run rate since 2019 (1.22 per nine), as well as his highest average exit velocity (91.5 mph) and hard-hit rate (44.6%). Thus he ended up with his highest FIP since 2018 (3.98), and highest xERA of the Statcast era (3.78).<\/p>\n
\nYears
\nAAV
\nTotal<\/p>\n
\n1
\n$8.0 M
\n$8.0 M<\/p>\n
\n1
\n$4.0 M
\n$4.0 M<\/p>\n
\n1.39
\n$4.5 M
\n$6.2 M<\/p>\n
\nBB%
\nK%
\nGB%
\nERA
\nFIP
\nxFIP
\nWAR
\nRA9-WAR<\/p>\n
\n9.4%
\n22.6%
\n47.3%
\n3.73
\n3.87
\n3.98
\n0.3
\n0.5<\/p>\n
Here\u2019s the fun thing about trying to predict what Ferguson will do going forward: 2024-25 was the first offseason in five years where he didn\u2019t completely remake his repertoire over the winter. Even so, he changed dramatically, dropping a run off his ERA and half a run off his FIP despite losing seven percentage points off his strikeout rate. Ferguson will also be looking to join his sixth different organization since the end of 2023, so I guess he\u2019s the baseball equivalent of a guy who fakes his own death every few years and moves to a new state to start over.<\/p>\n
\nYears
\nAAV
\nTotal<\/p>\n
\n1
\n$9.0 M
\n$9.0 M<\/p>\n
\n1
\n$7.5 M
\n$8.0 M<\/p>\n
\n1.43
\n$7.7 M
\n$11.0 M<\/p>\n
\nBB%
\nK%
\nGB%
\nERA
\nFIP
\nxFIP
\nWAR
\nRA9-WAR<\/p>\n
\n8.4%
\n25.8%
\n31.7%
\n3.90
\n3.98
\n4.12
\n0.5
\n0.5<\/p>\n
The Reds, who play in one of the most homer-friendly parks in the majors, cannot stop acquiring homer-prone pitchers: Pag\u00e1n, Zack Littell, Brady Singer<\/a>, even first-rounder Chase Burns<\/a>. Two offseasons ago, I concern trolled<\/a> about Pag\u00e1n\u2019s tenure in Cincinnati, but you know what? It worked out fine. It has worked out fine for most of these guys.<\/p>\n
\nYears
\nAAV
\nTotal<\/p>\n
\n1
\n$9.0 M
\n$9.0 M<\/p>\n
\n2
\n$7.0 M
\n$14.0 M<\/p>\n
\n1.84
\n$7.0 M
\n$12.9 M<\/p>\n
\nBB%
\nK%
\nGB%
\nERA
\nFIP
\nxFIP
\nWAR
\nRA9-WAR<\/p>\n
\n7.4%
\n24.9%
\n35.5%
\n3.83
\n3.90
\n3.99
\n0.4
\n0.5<\/p>\n
Weaver\u2019s run as a reliever perfectly embodies the volatility of the position. Just last October, he was on top of the world. He had claimed the closer role late in the season and was nails during the Yankees\u2019 playoff run, serving as their most reliable guy every step of the way. He had stretches of real dominance. But after a great start to the 2025 season \u2013 he had a 1.05 ERA through his first 25.2 innings \u2013 everything flipped on its head. After taking the closer role once again (this time from Devin Williams), Weaver strained his hamstring, causing him to miss three weeks. <\/p>\n
\nYears
\nAAV
\nTotal<\/p>\n
\n1
\n$8.5 M
\n$8.5 M<\/p>\n
\n1.0
\n$4.0 M
\n$4.0 M<\/p>\n
\n1.1
\n$4.2 M
\n$4.6 M<\/p>\n
\nBB%
\nK%
\nGB%
\nERA
\nFIP
\nxFIP
\nWAR
\nRA9-WAR<\/p>\n
\n7.4%
\n19.5%
\n47.4%
\n3.86
\n3.99
\n4.06
\n0.3
\n0.4<\/p>\n
Oops, I didn\u2019t mean to hog all the sidearmers! Milner is fun, and he has a 3.21 FIP over the last four seasons, but the fact that he has significant platoon splits makes him a little trickier to use out of the \u2018pen. He basically does everything just a bit worse than Tyler Rogers. Like Rogers, he allows a lot of contact, but his command isn\u2019t as sharp, his breaking pitch isn\u2019t as comically absurd, and his sinker is less effective at turning bats into noodles. Milner has a changeup, but it doesn\u2019t keep righties in check.<\/p>\n
\nYears
\nAAV
\nTotal<\/p>\n
\n1
\n$10.0 M
\n$10.0 M<\/p>\n
\n1
\n$7.0 M
\n$7.0 M<\/p>\n
\n1.52
\n$7.0 M
\n$10.6 M<\/p>\n
\nBB%
\nK%
\nGB%
\nERA
\nFIP
\nxFIP
\nWAR
\nRA9-WAR<\/p>\n
\n8.5%
\n23.4%
\n45.1%
\n3.80
\n3.81
\n3.83
\n0.4
\n0.4<\/p>\n
Finnegan might be baseball\u2019s most underrated closer. Over the past three seasons, the 34-year-old right-hander has registered 90 saves and logged a 3.65 ERA over 190 innings while taking the mound for the Washington Nationals and, most recently, the Detroit Tigers. Acquired by the Tabbies at this summer\u2019s trade deadline in exchange for a pair of prospects, Finnegan was credited with three wins and four saves in August before missing much of the final month with a groin injury; his absence contributed to a tumultuous stretch run that saw the club barely survive a September swoon.<\/p>\n
\nYears
\nAAV
\nTotal<\/p>\n
\n2
\n$13.0 M
\n$26.0 M<\/p>\n
\n2
\n$16.0 M
\n$32.0 M<\/p>\n
\n2.16
\n$16.3 M
\n$35.4 M<\/p>\n
\nBB%
\nK%
\nGB%
\nERA
\nFIP
\nxFIP
\nWAR
\nRA9-WAR<\/p>\n
\n7.6%
\n19.9%
\n39.2%
\n4.32
\n4.36
\n4.39
\n1.5
\n1.5<\/p>\n
Mahle returned for a pair of starts at the end of 2025 after missing three months for a rotator cuff strain, which allowed him to finish a season on an active roster for the first time since 2021. Tommy John surgery wiped out all of Mahle\u2019s 2023 and most of his 2024, but shoulder tightness, fatigue and strains have popped up the intervening gaps to limit him to 24 starts over the last three years. As will happen with that volume of arm aches over such an equal distribution between Mahle\u2019s right elbow and right shoulder, his velocity has dipped since his career-best 2021 season, and he averaged 92 mph this past year. Not coincidentally, Mahle\u2019s tenure in Texas saw him dip below 50% fastball usage (if you don\u2019t round up) and below a 20% strikeout rate for the first time.<\/p>\n
\nYears
\nAAV
\nTotal<\/p>\n
\n2
\n$10.0 M
\n$20.0 M<\/p>\n
\n2
\n$12.0 M
\n$24.0 M<\/p>\n
\n2.4
\n$12.3 M
\n$29.5 M<\/p>\n
\nBB%
\nK%
\nGB%
\nERA
\nFIP
\nxFIP
\nWAR
\nRA9-WAR<\/p>\n
\n5.0%
\n17.9%
\n38.7%
\n4.54
\n4.52
\n4.40
\n1.7
\n1.5<\/p>\n
If you\u2019re looking for a reliable back-of-the-rotation starter, Littell may very well be your man. The 30-year-old right-hander isn\u2019t flashy \u2014 big velocity and tons of strikeouts aren\u2019t among his attributes \u2014 but he consistently answers the bell and keeps his team in games. Littell has gone at least five frames in 51 of his 61 starts over the past two seasons, logging a 3.73 ERA along the way. Moreover, his 343 innings rank 24th-most over that span.<\/p>\n