{"id":267880,"date":"2025-11-07T14:01:12","date_gmt":"2025-11-07T14:01:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/267880\/"},"modified":"2025-11-07T14:01:12","modified_gmt":"2025-11-07T14:01:12","slug":"mlb-free-agency-predicting-contracts-for-top-10-available-players-this-offseason","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/267880\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB free agency: Predicting contracts for top 10 available players this offseason"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Major League Baseball&#8217;s free-agent market is officially open. That can mean only one thing: it&#8217;s time to predict the eventual contracts the 10 best players in the class will sign.<\/p>\n<p>Although baseball contracts often feel like they materialize from the ethers, you can do a reasonable job of predicting terms by combining precedent with inflation and some adjustments based on things like age and skill-set profile. There are some exceptions, of course &#8212; human beings are fun and unpredictable like that &#8212; but you needn&#8217;t take my word for it. This is my third year doing this exercise at the onset of free agency: in my first attempt, I came within $4.5 million average annual value on seven of the 10 players; last year, I fared better, landing within $2 million AAV on five of the 10. Let&#8217;s try to improve again.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/mlb\/news\/ranking-top-50-mlb-free-agents-2026\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><\/p>\n<p>Ranking top 50 MLB free agents for 2026: Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman at top, plus landing spots for every player<\/p>\n<p>\n                    R.J. Anderson                <\/p>\n<p>    <img decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" alt=\"Ranking top 50 MLB free agents for 2026: Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman at top, plus landing spots for every player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/fa-ranking.png\" loading=\"lazy\" height=\"152\" width=\"270\"\/><\/p>\n<p>    <\/a><\/p>\n<p>Let&#8217;s get to it.<\/p>\n<p>Tucker is a fascinating case. He&#8217;s good at everything, but his Baseball Reference page features minimal bold type. He&#8217;s also coming off an uneven season, his second in a row with a disruptive injury. I think Tucker joins a select group of outfielders (<a class=\"Annotation-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/mlb\/players\/2507367\/juan-soto\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Juan Soto<\/a>, <a class=\"Annotation-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/mlb\/players\/2071264\/aaron-judge\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Aaron Judge<\/a>, <a class=\"Annotation-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/mlb\/players\/2106654\/mookie-betts\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Mookie Betts<\/a>) to clear $30 million annually. I also think he&#8217;ll sign for a long term to leverage his youth (29 in January) and flatten his tax hit. Beyond that? I could see him besting this estimate by being the best player available in a weak market.<\/p>\n<p>Prediction: 12 years, $408 million ($34 million AAV)<\/p>\n<p>Bregman inked a three-year pact last winter worth $40 million annually. In reality, it was a series of one-year arrangements that allowed him re-enter the market when he wanted thanks to opt-outs. I have to imagine Bregman clears the deal <a class=\"Annotation-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/mlb\/players\/2135256\/matt-chapman\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Matt Chapman<\/a> signed with the <a class=\"Annotation-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/mlb\/teams\/SF\/san-francisco-giants\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Giants<\/a> last year for six years and $151 million. My question is if he&#8217;s able to also top the $31 million AAV that <a class=\"Annotation-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/mlb\/players\/2165929\/rafael-devers\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Rafael Devers<\/a> received as part of his extension with the <a class=\"Annotation-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/mlb\/teams\/BOS\/boston-red-sox\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Red Sox<\/a>. (Because, you know, it&#8217;s not like Bregman and Devers are connected in any other way.) I&#8217;ll guess yes, albeit barely.<\/p>\n<p>Prediction: Six years, $192 million ($32 million AAV)<\/p>\n<p>The key question facing Bichette&#8217;s free agency is how teams will view him positionally. If a club is willing to stomach his shortstop defense, then the comparison to <a class=\"Annotation-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/mlb\/players\/2165933\/willy-adames\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Willy Adames<\/a>&#8216; agreement with the Giants (seven years, $182 million) is a good reference point. I&#8217;m going to assume that will be the case, at least in the short term. I&#8217;ll add in some extra coin because of Bichette&#8217;s age advantage and inflation.<\/p>\n<p>Prediction: Seven years, $189 million ($27 million AAV)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/mlb\/news\/bo-bichette-free-agency-contract-prediction-landing-spots-blue-jays\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><\/p>\n<p>Bo Bichette free agency: Pros and cons, contract prediction, landing spots and more for All-Star shortstop<\/p>\n<p>\n                    R.J. Anderson                <\/p>\n<p>    <img decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" alt=\"Bo Bichette free agency: Pros and cons, contract prediction, landing spots and more for All-Star shortstop\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/bichette-getty.png\" loading=\"lazy\" height=\"152\" width=\"270\"\/><\/p>\n<p>    <\/a><\/p>\n<p>There&#8217;s no doubt in my mind that Valdez&#8217;s camp will push for a contract similar to the agreement <a class=\"Annotation-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/mlb\/players\/2001078\/max-fried\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Max Fried<\/a> reached with the <a class=\"Annotation-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/mlb\/teams\/NYY\/new-york-yankees\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Yankees<\/a>: eight years, $218 million. I don&#8217;t know if Valdez will succeed in getting that term &#8212; Fried&#8217;s is the second longest given to a pure pitcher since 2020 (<a class=\"Annotation-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/mlb\/players\/29313209\/yoshinobu-yamamoto\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Yoshinobu Yamamoto<\/a> leads the way at 10 years and he was a special case) &#8212; but I do think he&#8217;ll land a similar per annum when it&#8217;s all said and done.<\/p>\n<p>Prediction: Seven years, $189 million ($27 million AAV)<\/p>\n<p>Schwarber is a tough button to button. He&#8217;s a very good hitter, but it&#8217;s all he does and he&#8217;s nearing his 33rd birthday. David Ortiz, perhaps the best contemporary comparison, never received more than a four-year contract past this point in his career. I think Schwarber&#8217;s camp can attempt to build a deal leveraging the pact Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez signed last winter with the <a class=\"Annotation-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/mlb\/teams\/LAD\/los-angeles-dodgers\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Dodgers<\/a> for three years and $66 million. (Said deal also included at least one option and another conditional one.) Schwarber is a better hitter than Hern\u00e1ndez, so it&#8217;s only just that he gets a slightly longer and more lucrative deal.<\/p>\n<p>Prediction: Four years, $104 million ($26 million AAV)<\/p>\n<p>Bellinger is another polarizing free-agent profile. There&#8217;s no denying he&#8217;s found a formula that works for him. It may not work as well in every ballpark as it did at Yankee Stadium, however, and it&#8217;s hard to forget that he had a stretch where he was nearly unplayable. I could see this estimate being wrong in either direction, and I have a feeling whatever deal he signs will feature a far more convoluted structure than I want to delve into for this exercise.<\/p>\n<p>Prediction: Five years, $125 million ($25 million AAV)<\/p>\n<p>7. 3B\/1B Munetaka Murakami<\/p>\n<p>Meet the wild card of the group. Murakami, who is expected to be posted from NPB, has elite strength and youth on his side. He&#8217;s extremely prone to striking out, however, and he&#8217;s not much of a defensive presence. It&#8217;s tough to find a good recent comparison for an international hitter transfer. <a class=\"Annotation-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/mlb\/players\/27023012\/seiya-suzuki\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Seiya Suzuki<\/a> and <a class=\"Annotation-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/mlb\/players\/29041593\/masataka-yoshida\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Masataka Yoshida<\/a>, both Japanese outfielders, received between $17 and $18 million annually over five-year terms. <a class=\"Annotation-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/mlb\/players\/29295027\/jung-hoo-lee\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Jung Hoo Lee<\/a>, a Korean outfielder, received about $19 million annually over six years. Murakami is likely aiming higher than those rates. I&#8217;ll guess that he finds a taker, but keep the salt handy because there are wide error bars extending in both directions.<\/p>\n<p>Prediction: Six years, $140 million ($23.3 million AAV)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/mlb\/news\/shota-imanaga-free-agency-cubs-offseason\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><\/p>\n<p>Shota Imanaga free agency: What those surprising contract decisions might tell us about this MLB offseason<\/p>\n<p>\n                    R.J. Anderson                <\/p>\n<p>    <img decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" alt=\"Shota Imanaga free agency: What those surprising contract decisions might tell us about this MLB offseason\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/imanaga-getty.png\" loading=\"lazy\" height=\"152\" width=\"270\"\/><\/p>\n<p>    <\/a><\/p>\n<p>Imanaga joined the class after the <a class=\"Annotation-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/mlb\/teams\/CHC\/chicago-cubs\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Cubs<\/a> declined a three-year option worth nearly $60 million. Imanaga, for his part, then rejected what amounted to a pair of one-year options worth $15 million. He did show some signs of slippage last season, but I think a team will welcome him in for more than he would&#8217;ve earned on a rate basis for something along the lines of last winter&#8217;s <a class=\"Annotation-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/mlb\/players\/1803864\/nathan-eovaldi\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Nathan Eovaldi<\/a> contract.<\/p>\n<p>Prediction: Two years, $50 million ($25 million AAV)<\/p>\n<p>The market isn&#8217;t kind to non-elite right-handed first basemen. Alonso found that out last winter, yet he elected to opt out of a $24 million salary for the upcoming season in pursuit of a longer contract. Can he find something similar to <a class=\"Annotation-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/mlb\/players\/1630079\/freddie-freeman\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Freddie Freeman<\/a>&#8216;s six-year arrangement worth $27 million annually? I&#8217;m not so sure on the term &#8212; even Freeman had trouble finding that deal, and he was a better pure hitter. I&#8217;ll plant the AAV there anyway.<\/p>\n<p>Prediction: Four years, 108 million ($27 million AAV)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/mlb\/news\/pete-alonso-free-agency-landing-spots\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><\/p>\n<p>Pete Alonso free agency: Why slugger may face another chilly market this offseason, plus landing spots<\/p>\n<p>\n                    R.J. Anderson                <\/p>\n<p>    <img decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" alt=\"Pete Alonso free agency: Why slugger may face another chilly market this offseason, plus landing spots\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/alonso-getty.png\" loading=\"lazy\" height=\"152\" width=\"270\"\/><\/p>\n<p>    <\/a><br \/>\n10. LHP Ranger Su\u00e1rez<\/p>\n<p>A slew of mid-rotation starters have signed for around $25 million annually in recent years. Last offseason alone saw <a class=\"Annotation-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/mlb\/players\/2066704\/sean-manaea\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Sean Manaea<\/a> and Nathan Eovaldi do it. I have to imagine that&#8217;s at least the beginning of a reasonable agreement for Su\u00e1rez. This may prove low though if he doesn&#8217;t suffer from comparisons to the aforementioned Valdez.<\/p>\n<p>Prediction: Five years, $125 million ($25 million AAV)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Major League Baseball&#8217;s free-agent market is officially open. That can mean only one thing: it&#8217;s time to predict&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":267881,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[435],"tags":[7679,123254,7203,123253,49,48,8298,5716,123251,24973,123250,463,510,462,40120,123249,471,1523,123255,9104,82,123252],"class_list":{"0":"post-267880","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-mlb","8":"tag-alex-bregman","9":"tag-alonso-free-agency","10":"tag-bo-bichette","11":"tag-bregman-free-agency","12":"tag-ca","13":"tag-canada","14":"tag-cody-bellinger","15":"tag-contract","16":"tag-contract-predictions","17":"tag-framber-valdez","18":"tag-free-agency-predictions","19":"tag-kyle-schwarber","20":"tag-kyle-tucker","21":"tag-mlb","22":"tag-mlb-free-agency","23":"tag-mlb-free-agents","24":"tag-pete-alonso","25":"tag-ranger-suarez","26":"tag-schwarber-free-agency","27":"tag-shota-imanaga","28":"tag-sports","29":"tag-tucker-free-agency"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/267880","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=267880"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/267880\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/267881"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=267880"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=267880"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=267880"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}