{"id":267937,"date":"2025-11-07T14:41:09","date_gmt":"2025-11-07T14:41:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/267937\/"},"modified":"2025-11-07T14:41:09","modified_gmt":"2025-11-07T14:41:09","slug":"ufc-vegas-111-previewbonfim-vs-brown-main-co-main-event-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/267937\/","title":{"rendered":"UFC Vegas 111 preview:\u2018Bonfim vs Brown main, co-main event predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is just one day away from the upcoming UFC Vegas 111 mixed martial arts (MMA) event<\/a>, which is set to go down tomorrow night (Sat., Nov. 8, 2025) on ESPN+<\/a> from inside APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. UFC Vegas 111 features a welterweight main event between 170-pound standouts Gabriel Bonfim and Randy Brown, a five-round showdown with possible title implications for early 2026 and beyond.<\/p>\n

Before we dive into the main and co-main events, which include the flyweight collision between 125-pound bruisers Matt Schnell and Joseph Morales, check out Andrew Richardson\u2019s \u201cX-Factor\u201d breakdown for the rest of the UFC Vegas 111 six-fight main card by clicking here<\/a>. Get all the latest \u201cBonfim vs. Brown\u201d odds and updated betting props courtesy of our fiscal friends over at FanDuel right here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

170 lbs.: Gabriel Bonfim vs. Randy Brown<\/p>\n

Gabriel \u201cMarretinha\u201d Bonfim
Record: 18-1 | Age: 28 | Betting line: -185
Wins: 3 KO\/TKO, 13 SUB, 2 DEC | Losses: 1 KO\/TKO, 0 SUB, 0 DEC
Height: 6\u20191\u201d | Reach: 72\u201d | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.54 | Striking accuracy: 45%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.53 | Striking Defense: 63%
Takedown Average: 4.03 (55% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 76%
Current Ranking: No. 14 | Last fight: Split decision victory over Stephen Thompson<\/p>\n

Randy \u201cRude Boy\u201d Brown
Record: 20-6 | Age: 35 | Betting line: +155
Wins: 8 KO\/TKO, 5 SUB, 7 DEC | Losses: 2 KO\/TKO, 2 SUB, 2 DEC
Height: 6\u20193\u201d | Reach: 78\u201d | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.47 | Striking accuracy: 47%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.26 | Striking Defense: 54%
Takedown Average: 0.79 (39% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 73%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Knockout victory over Nicolas Dalby<\/p>\n

Expectations were high for Gabriel Bonfim when he graduated Dana White\u2019s \u201cContender Series\u201d back in late 2022, submitting Trey Waters by way of first-round shoulder choke. In the three years following that performance, \u201cMarretinha\u201d has largely delivered, winning five of six with three submissions and a pair of post-fight performance bonuses which includes his \u201cFight of the Night\u201d in a losing effort against Nicolas Dalby at UFC Sao Paulo. Bonfim was able to crack the welterweight Top 15 with his split-decision victory over Stephen Thompson at UFC Nashville, a back-and-forth fight that felt like it should have been a five-round headliner at APEX. Regardless, the performance proved Bonfim was able to deal with an experienced striker though critics will claim the Brazilian underperformed against a shopworn, 42 year-old relic from UFC yesteryear. I think this weekend\u2019s fight against an unranked (but very dangerous) Randy Brown will help determine Bonfim\u2019s trajectory in 2026. Still just 28, \u201cMarretinha\u201d may just now be hitting his competitive prime.<\/p>\n

\u201dStephen Thompson\u2019s a well-rounded guy, and the most experienced guy in the division. So of course, after watching and analyzing my fight with him, I grew so much,\u201d Bonfim told UFC.com<\/a>. \u201cI grew more from that fight than from my loss (to Nicolas Dalby). He was a guy that I could not blink. I had to stay focused and dialed-in the entire time, I had to defend everything. If I blinked, he would kick. So I defended his kicks and (had to) be aware, very wary. He\u2019s got good takedown defense. So just (for my) overall mindset and (for) me to be dialed in for the fight, that was the biggest growth I had from fighting Stephen Thompson. I really believe I will knock [Brown] out. I\u2019m going to press him with forward pressure and volume, and I think eventually I\u2019m going to land my punch and knock him out.\u201d<\/p>\n

Randy Brown has quietly amassed a 14-6 record in 20 fights under the UFC banner and is just a few weeks in front of his 10-year anniversary with the promotion. When \u201cRude Boy\u201d first made his Octagon debut back in Jan. 2016, Robbie Lawler, Luke Rockhold, and Fabricio Werdum were all UFC champions; so yeah, it\u2019s been a minute. Brown has won four of his last five and has all the physical tools to be a major player in the 170-pound title chase, but something is missing from his overall game. He routinely comes up short against the biggest names in the division, like Belal Muhammad and Jack Della Maddalena, among others, which keeps the Jamaican slugger from gaining any traction in the official welterweight rankings. That said, Brown was able to knockout Nicolas Dalby at UFC Kansas City back in April \u2014 the same Dalby who stopped Bonfim at UFC Sao Paulo. \u201cRude Boy\u201d remains the betting underdog in this contest and at age 35, you have to wonder how much Brown has left in the tank after 13 years of abuse. I don\u2019t know if Brown has enough time left on the clock to make a run at the top of the division, but you can bet he\u2019ll be looking to play spoiler this weekend in \u201cSin City.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019m preparing for Gabriel Bonfim to be \u2018the guy,\u2019 what he was when he burst on the scene: five rounds of an onslaught; non-stop pressure, knockout power,\u201d Brown told UFC.com<\/a>. \u201cHe can throw, his grappling (is great), he\u2019s strong as an ox. That\u2019s who I prepared for, that\u2019s who I\u2019m ready to face, and he\u2019s gonna see the version of me that is ready for that. I beat him everywhere; I\u2019m better than him everywhere. Only thing is, he\u2019s an offensive grappler; that\u2019s his bread and butter. He strikes with some people \u2014 they all strike with some people \u2014 but we\u2019ll see what it looks like on Saturday because I know that ain\u2019t gonna be the case. If it is, that\u2019s gonna be a mistake. They think I can\u2019t grapple, and that\u2019s fine. I\u2019ll keep the fight where I wanna keep the fight, but if it goes anywhere, I\u2019ll be just fine.\u201d<\/p>\n

This is a very winnable fight for Brown, who is taller and has a longer reach. It all depends on how well he defends the wrestling attack from Bonfim, who averages more than four takedowns per 15 minutes of action. \u201cRude Boy\u201d was grounded four times by Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos at UFC 302 and \u201cCapoeira\u201d is smaller than Bonfim, so I suppose this contest will be decided by the Brazilian\u2019s gas tank. If he fades late, Brown is going to level him for the upset. The more likely scenario is that \u201cMarretinha\u201d grinds his way to a close nod on the judges\u2019 scorecards.<\/p>\n

Prediction: Bonfim def. Brown by unanimous decision<\/p>\n

125 lbs.: Matt Schnell vs. Joseph Morales<\/p>\n

Matt \u201cDanger\u201d Schnell
Record: 17-9, 1 NC | Age: 35 | Betting line: +220
Wins: 2 KO\/TKO, 9 SUB, 5 DEC, 1 DQ | Losses: 5 KO\/TKO, 3 SUB, 1 DEC
Height: 5\u20198\u201d | Reach: 70\u201d | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.13 | Striking accuracy: 40%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 4.17 | Striking Defense: 55%
Takedown Average: 0.49 (40% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 43%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Unanimous decision win over Jimmy Flick<\/p>\n

Joseph \u201cBopo\u201d Morales
Record: 13-2 | Age: 31 | Betting line: -270
Wins: 2 KO\/TKO, 7 SUB, 4 DEC | Losses: 1 KO\/TKO, 0 SUB, 1 DEC
Height: 5\u20196\u201d | Reach: 69\u201d | Stance: Switch
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 2.02 | Striking accuracy: 40%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 2.11 | Striking Defense: 57%
Takedown Average: 1.23 (42% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 28%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Submission win over Alibi Idiris<\/p>\n

Matt Schnell first rose to prominence as one of the flyweight contestants on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 24 back in 2016, where he blasted his way into the quarterfinals by disposing of Matt Rizzo by way of second-round submission. Schnell would eventually go on to lose to finalist Tim Elliott, but the promotion was still building its flyweight division and \u201cDanger\u201d got called up to the big show. The fact that Schnell is still employed by UFC nearly a decade later is impressive on its own and when you rack up back-to-back \u201cFight of the Night\u201d bonuses (UFC 274, UFC Elmont) there\u2019s no reason to let you go. That said, it\u2019s been a rough couple of years for Schnell, who dropped four of his last six and got brutally finished in all four losses. On the plus side, \u201cDanger\u201d is coming off a unanimous decision victory over Jimmy Flick at UFC Kansas City last April.<\/p>\n

\u201cI don\u2019t have to make anything happen,\u201d Schnell said at the UFC Vegas 111 media day<\/a>. \u201cI think the past, I\u2019ve kind of gotten wrapped up in that, \u2018I\u2019m a scrapper, I\u2019ve got to go out there and make something.\u2019 I don\u2019t have to make anything happen. My two feet on that mat, my two feet on that canvas, we scrapping. I just have to be in the moment, read, react, fight the way I\u2019ve always fought, and not overreach. But I think it\u2019s important to make it a fight and not make it pretty and let him get his good grappling stuff off and get into those technical grappling aspects. Be gritty. Be mean. Do my best and cause some damage along the way. We\u2019ll see who wins. It\u2019s a scrap, though, baby. I know it is. It\u2019s going to be a good one.\u201d<\/p>\n

Joseph Morales has one of the great comeback stories in UFC. \u201cBopo\u201d had his first run inside the Octagon back in summer 2017, earning a contract after racking up a perfect 8-0 record on the regional scene. Unfortunately, Morales posted a 1-2 record and got released in late 2018. Undaunted, the Californian once again ran roughshod over local talent to earn a spot on TUF 33, winning the combat sports reality show trophy by submitting Alibi Idiris last August as part of the UFC 319 fight card in Chicago. Whether or not he can avoid the same fate he encountered in his first UFC run remains to be seen, but Morales doesn\u2019t look anything like the 2018 version that cost him a spot on the 125-pound roster. In addition, the timing couldn\u2019t be better, as the top half of the flyweight division is running out of viable contenders for 2026 and beyond \u2014 thanks to the dominance of current champion Alexandre Pantoja.<\/p>\n

\u201cMy last performance was \u2026 I don\u2019t wanna say flawless, but it\u2019s as good as you can get, and to be able to repeat that (on Saturday) is my plan,\u201d Morales told UFC.com<\/a>. \u201cI just wanna showcase that I got better in that short amount of time, and that I\u2019ve got some tricks up my sleeve. I was surprised and caught off guard that I\u2019m in the co-main event. I\u2019m honored to be back, but having the co-main event spot is huge for me to be able to showcase my talents and my skills. I\u2019m looking forward to being able to put on a performance for the fans and the UFC. I have to earn it; this is not something that is deserved. You don\u2019t just come in here and deserve anything. You get what you get, and you\u2019ve got to come in here and fight your ass off to make it up the ranks.\u201d<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a bit surprising to see Schnell as such a heavy underdog for this fight when you consider his size and level of experience. To be fair, \u201cDanger\u201d has looked pretty bad in recent years and has been finished in eight of his nine losses. At the same time, Morales has been red hot as of late and looks to be a serious threat to the flyweight division. Expect an action-packed banger that sees a shopworn Schnell get dropped to the canvas, where \u201cBopo\u201d follows and locks up a fight-ending choke.<\/p>\n

Prediction: Morales def. Schnell by submission<\/p>\n

Remember to get the rest of the UFC Vegas 111 main card predictions RIGHT HERE<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

SIN CITY FISTICUFFS!<\/a> Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to action on Sat., Nov. 8, 2025, with an exciting main event set to headline UFC Vegas 111<\/a> from inside UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. In UFC Vegas 111\u2019s main event, Welterweight contenders Gabriel Bonfim vs. Randy Brown<\/a> clash in a high-stakes, five-round bout. UFC Vegas 111\u2019s co-main event features a Flyweight showdown between Matt Schnell vs. Joseph Morales. UFC Vegas 111 will also showcase a Welterweight showdown pitting Muslim Salikhov vs. Uros Medic, a 155-pound collision featuring Chris Padilla vs. Ismael Bonfim, and much more! UFC Vegas 111\u2019s start time is scheduled for 4 p.m. ET (\u201cPrelims\u201d undercard<\/a>), and 7 p.m. ET (main card<\/a>).<\/p>\n

Read More<\/p>\n

MMAmania.com<\/a> will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 111 fight card on fight night, starting with the ESPN+<\/a> preliminary card bouts at 4 p.m. ET, followed by the remaining main card balance on ESPN+<\/a> at 7 p.m. ET.<\/p>\n

To check out the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 111 news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive here<\/a>. For the updated and finalized \u201cBonfim vs. Brown\u201d fight card and ESPN+<\/a> lineup click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is just one day away from the upcoming UFC Vegas 111 mixed martial arts…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":267938,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[444],"tags":[49,48,641,33601,638,82,37644,702,17055,8729,4454],"class_list":["post-267937","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mma","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-fighting","tag-latest-ufc-mma-news","tag-mma","tag-sports","tag-ufc-on-espn-fight-night","tag-ufc-news","tag-ufc-predictions","tag-ufc-previews","tag-upcoming-ufc-events"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/267937","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=267937"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/267937\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/267938"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=267937"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=267937"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=267937"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}