{"id":273763,"date":"2025-11-10T07:46:09","date_gmt":"2025-11-10T07:46:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/273763\/"},"modified":"2025-11-10T07:46:09","modified_gmt":"2025-11-10T07:46:09","slug":"economc-week-ahead-november-10-14","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/273763\/","title":{"rendered":"ECONOMC WEEK AHEAD: November 10-14"},"content":{"rendered":"

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On October 29, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said, “[W]hat do you do if you’re driving in the fog? You slow down.” He was referring to the lack of economic data due to the government shutdown. The Fed and the financial markets\u00a0now\u00a0have\u00a0been deprived of two monthly employment reports. Add to the shutdown casualties list the October PPI and CPI, which would’ve dispelled some of the fog.<\/p>\n

All this is complicating the debate about whether the Fed might cut rates\u00a0next month for what would be\u00a0a third time in 2025. It also adds drama to Fed speaking engagements in the days ahead. They include Governors Michael Barr opining on artificial intelligence and innovation (Tue), Christopher Waller speaking on payments (Wed), and Stephen Miran (Wed) speaking generally in a fireside chat over in the UK.<\/p>\n

Regional Fed presidents speaking\u00a0include<\/a>: New York’s John Williams (Wed, Thu), Philadelphia’s Anna Paulson (Wed), Atlanta’s Raphael Bostic (Wed, Thu), Boston’s Susan Collins (Wed), St. Louis’ Alberto Musalem (Thu), Cleveland’s Beth Hammack (Thu), Kansas City’s Jeff Schmid (Fri),\u00a0and Dallas’ Lorie Logan (Fri).<\/p>\n

In other words, the Federal Open\u00a0Mouth\u00a0Committee will be very vocal this week.<\/p>\n

Though the government won’t be reporting official data in the week ahead, here’s a look at other\u00a0upcoming\u00a0data\u00a0releases\u00a0likely to confirm that the economy is still growing and inflation remains above the Fed’s 2.0% target:<\/p>\n

(1)\u00a0CPI Inflation. The Cleveland Fed’s\u00a0Inflation Nowcasting<\/a>\u00a0shows that the headline and core CPI inflation rates rose 2.96% and 2.99% y\/y, respectively, in October. In recent months, the CPI core inflation rate has been stuck around 3.00% (chart).<\/p>\n

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(2)\u00a0Small business survey. October’s small\u00a0business owners’ survey (Wed), compiled by the National Federation of Independent Business, is likely to show that uncertainty remains high due to the government shutdown (chart). That might continue to weigh on the survey’s labor market indexes, which we monitor closely.<\/p>\n

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(3)\u00a0Retail\u00a0sales. Last week’s Redbook Retail Sales Index (Tue), covering the tail end of October, rose 5.7% y\/y, confounding the economic bears. Odds are good\u00a0that\u00a0the next reading will show that consumers are spending and that layoffs aren’t widespread enough to weigh on consumer spending (chart).<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

(4)\u00a0ADP weekly jobs data. ADP’s national employment report will have market participants eyeing its weekly preliminary employment growth estimate (Tue) for any glimpse of clarity about labor market conditions amid the economic fog.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udca1<\/p>\n

Join the discussion with Ed below! To leave comments or questions, log in to the Yardeni QuickTakes website and post them at the end of the QuickTakes article. Paid members’ contributions may be featured in our segment, “Ed Answers Your Questions”.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"On October 29, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said, “[W]hat do you do if you’re driving in the fog?…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":273764,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[45,49,48,46],"class_list":{"0":"post-273763","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-ca","10":"tag-canada","11":"tag-economy"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/273763","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=273763"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/273763\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/273764"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=273763"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=273763"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=273763"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}