{"id":274403,"date":"2025-11-10T14:58:10","date_gmt":"2025-11-10T14:58:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/274403\/"},"modified":"2025-11-10T14:58:10","modified_gmt":"2025-11-10T14:58:10","slug":"if-pitches-are-fixed-baseball-is-broken","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/274403\/","title":{"rendered":"If Pitches Are Fixed, Baseball Is Broken"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a class=\"ui-rounded-5xl ui-w-fit ui-items-center motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-font-gt-america ui-py-2.5 ui-px-4 ui-text-body-md-medium ui-text-white ui-bg-white\/10 ui-border-white ui-backdrop-blur-[3px] hover:ui-bg-white hover:ui-text-black ui-hidden lg:ui-flex\" data-sentry-element=\"Comp\" data-sentry-component=\"Tag\" data-sentry-source-file=\"tag.tsx\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theringer.com\/topic\/mlb\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">MLB<\/a><a class=\"ui-rounded-5xl ui-w-fit ui-items-center motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-font-gt-america ui-py-2 ui-px-3 ui-text-body-sm-medium ui-text-white ui-bg-white\/10 ui-border-white ui-backdrop-blur-[3px] hover:ui-bg-white hover:ui-text-black ui-flex lg:ui-hidden\" data-sentry-element=\"Comp\" data-sentry-component=\"Tag\" data-sentry-source-file=\"tag.tsx\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theringer.com\/topic\/mlb\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">MLB<\/a>The prop-betting scandal surrounding Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz is a threat to MLB and a warning sign for sports<img alt=\"\" data-sentry-element=\"Image\" data-sentry-source-file=\"article-hero.tsx\" fetchpriority=\"high\" loading=\"eager\" decoding=\"async\" data-nimg=\"fill\" class=\"ui-object-cover ui-rounded-4xl\" style=\"position:absolute;height:100%;width:100%;left:0;top:0;right:0;bottom:0;object-position:49% 26%;color:transparent\"   src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/1762786689_37_image\"\/>Getty Images\/Ringer illustration<a data-sentry-element=\"Link\" data-sentry-source-file=\"article-info-block.tsx\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theringer.com\/creator\/ben-lindbergh\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img alt=\"\" data-sentry-element=\"Image\" data-sentry-source-file=\"article-info-block.tsx\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"56\" height=\"56\" decoding=\"async\" data-nimg=\"1\" class=\"ui-object-cover h-full w-full rounded-full border grayscale ui-border ui-border-black\" style=\"color:transparent;object-position:50% 50%\"  src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/1762786690_111_image\"\/><\/a>By <a class=\"text-body-md-medium lg:text-body-lg-medium hover:opacity-70\" data-sentry-element=\"Link\" data-sentry-source-file=\"article-info-block.tsx\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theringer.com\/creator\/ben-lindbergh\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Ben Lindbergh<\/a>Nov. 10, 2:38 pm UTC \u2022 16 min<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">In 1919, Shoeless Joe Jackson was a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/leaders\/major-league?pos=all&amp;stats=bat&amp;lg=all&amp;type=8&amp;ind=0&amp;startdate=&amp;enddate=&amp;qual=0&amp;sortcol=21&amp;sortdir=default&amp;postseason=&amp;month=0&amp;season1=1919&amp;season=1919\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">top-10<\/a> position player in baseball. He led his White Sox to the World Series, where he hit .375\/.394\/.563 over eight games against the Cincinnati Reds and topped the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/leaders\/major-league?pos=all&amp;stats=bat&amp;lg=all&amp;type=3&amp;ind=0&amp;startdate=&amp;enddate=&amp;season1=1919&amp;season=1919&amp;qual=0&amp;postseason=W&amp;sortcol=2&amp;sortdir=default&amp;pagenum=1\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">other<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/postseason\/1919_WS.shtml\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">hitters<\/a> in win probability added and championship win probability added. No one who appeared in more than three games of that series had a higher wRC+ than Jackson\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/leaders\/major-league?pos=all&amp;stats=bat&amp;lg=all&amp;type=8&amp;ind=0&amp;startdate=&amp;enddate=&amp;season1=1919&amp;season=1919&amp;qual=0&amp;sortcol=17&amp;sortdir=default&amp;postseason=W\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">164<\/a>. On the surface, the stats seemed to support what Jackson <a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-almanac.com\/articles\/joejackson.shtml\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">claimed<\/a> in September 1920, as he testified before a grand injury that was seeking to indict dirty Sox players for throwing the series: \u201cI tried to win all the time.\u201d<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">A <a href=\"https:\/\/gallery.mailchimp.com\/70117f7e29064e68418377637\/files\/150480000_Jackson_Throws_Series.pdf\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">deeper dive<\/a> casts doubt on that idea. Almost all of Jackson\u2019s production came in the games the White Sox\u2014now known as the notorious Black Sox\u2014were trying to win. In the others, he had a negative WPA, in addition to multiple suspect plays in the field. The only runs he produced in fixed contests came late in the last game, when Jackson batted with the Sox behind by scores of 5-0 and 10-1. Charles McDonald, the presiding judge for the grand jury inquiry, later testified under oath that Jackson\u2014who confessed to accepting money to throw the series, <a href=\"https:\/\/sabr.org\/journal\/article\/an-ever-changing-story-exposition-and-analysis-of-shoeless-joe-jacksons-public-statements-on-the-black-sox-scandal\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">before<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/gallery.mailchimp.com\/70117f7e29064e68418377637\/files\/150470000_Shoeless_Joe_Appeal_01.pdf\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">repeatedly<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/gallery.mailchimp.com\/70117f7e29064e68418377637\/files\/150450000_Jackson_Free_01.pdf\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">changing<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/gallery.mailchimp.com\/70117f7e29064e68418377637\/files\/7bf50360-1daf-4de1-80a8-af79995c73d7\/19086_Black_Sox_Avoid_Jail.pdf\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">his<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/gallery.mailchimp.com\/70117f7e29064e68418377637\/files\/f4247692-0872-4b3c-9eba-e2094085d6f3\/20005_Jackson_Legend.pdf\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">story<\/a> in subsequent years\u2014had admitted to him, before Jackson\u2019s testimony, that \u201che had made no misplays that could be noticed by the ordinary person but that he did not play his best.\u201d<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">Jackson initially copped to taking $5,000 of a promised $20,000 payment to throw the series. History rhymes: As it happens, $5k is the same amount promised in one instance to each of the two pitchers implicated in the next outcome-fixing scandal to envelop the sport, more than a century after MLB commissioner Kenesaw Mountain Landis banned Jackson and seven of his teammates from baseball. The successors to the Black Sox are the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dictionary.com\/browse\/blackguard\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">blackGuards<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">From May of 2023 through late July of 2025, only <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/leaders\/major-league?pos=all&amp;lg=all&amp;type=c%2C4%2C5%2C11%2C7%2C8%2C13%2C-1%2C36%2C37%2C40%2C43%2C44%2C48%2C51%2C-1%2C240%2C-1%2C6%2C332%2C45%2C62%2C-1%2C59%2C212&amp;season=2025&amp;season1=2023&amp;ind=0&amp;startdate=2023-05-01&amp;enddate=2025-07-26&amp;team=0&amp;stats=rel&amp;qual=0&amp;postseason=&amp;month=1000&amp;v_cr=202301&amp;sortcol=20&amp;sortdir=default&amp;pagenum=1\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">one<\/a> MLB reliever had a higher FanGraphs WAR than the Cleveland Guardians\u2019 Emmanuel Clase and no one came close to recording as many <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/leaders\/major-league?pos=all&amp;lg=all&amp;type=0&amp;season=2025&amp;season1=2023&amp;ind=0&amp;startdate=2023-05-01&amp;enddate=2025-07-26&amp;team=0&amp;qual=0&amp;postseason=&amp;month=1000&amp;v_cr=202301&amp;stats=pit&amp;sortcol=10&amp;sortdir=default&amp;pagenum=1\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">saves<\/a>. Clase was an All-Star in 2023 and 2024, and in the latter season he recorded a 0.61 ERA, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/leaders\/major-league?pos=all&amp;lg=all&amp;type=8&amp;ind=1&amp;qual=50&amp;postseason=&amp;stats=rel&amp;startdate=&amp;enddate=&amp;month=0&amp;season1=1871&amp;season=2025&amp;sortcol=17&amp;sortdir=default&amp;pagenum=1\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">third-lowest<\/a> mark ever for a reliever with at least 50 innings pitched. He won MLB\u2019s Reliever of the Year award, finished third in American League Cy Young voting, was listed on almost half of AL MVP <a href=\"https:\/\/bbwaa.com\/24-al-mvp-ballots\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">ballots<\/a>, and formed the backbone of what was, by win probability added, the best bullpen <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/leaders\/major-league?pos=all&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=0&amp;type=3&amp;month=0&amp;ind=1&amp;team=0%2Cts&amp;rost=0&amp;age=0&amp;filter=&amp;players=0&amp;stats=rel&amp;startdate=&amp;enddate=&amp;season1=1871&amp;season=2025&amp;sortcol=2&amp;sortdir=default&amp;pagenum=1\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">ever<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">With results like those, it would seem safe to assume that Clase (to echo Jackson) \u201ctried to win all the time.\u201d Yet according to a case made by government investigators and prosecutors, Clase (to echo Judge McDonald) \u201cdid not play his best,\u201d even though he, too, may have \u201cmade no misplays that could be noticed by the ordinary person.\u201d<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">On Sunday, Clase, 27, and fellow Guardians pitcher Luis L. Ortiz, 26, were indicted for bribery and multiple counts of conspiracy in connection with a scheme to rig individual pitches. Clase and Ortiz are <a href=\"https:\/\/www.justice.gov\/usao-edny\/pr\/two-current-major-league-baseball-players-charged-sports-betting-and-money-laundering\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">accused<\/a> of colluding with two sports bettors to throw pitches that would make particular <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/6747376\/2025\/10\/24\/prop-bets-nba-gambling-scandal\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">prop bets<\/a> pay off, thereby enriching the bettors they tipped off by at least $450,000 over hundreds of bets (and also enriching themselves via kickbacks from the bettors). The two pitchers, who could (but almost certainly won\u2019t) each face up to 65 years in prison\u2014not to mention, more realistically, lifetime bans from baseball\u2014had been placed on non-disciplinary paid leave in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mlbtraderumors.com\/2025\/07\/guardians-luis-ortiz-paid-leave-mlb-investigation.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">in<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mlbtraderumors.com\/2025\/07\/guardians-closer-emmanuel-clase-administrative-leave-gambling-investigation-mlb.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">July<\/a> when the investigation into their actions commenced. This weekend, the other shoe dropped, as sharply as their pitches did when money was allegedly riding on them to be balls.<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">The arrangement described in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.justice.gov\/usao-edny\/media\/1417041\/dl?inline\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">the indictment<\/a> is fairly brazen. Clase is said to have started rigging pitches \u201cin or around\u201d May 2023, and he evidently continued to do so until being joined by Ortiz in June 2025. The two pitchers and their coconspirators seemingly took advantage of prop bets that allowed people to wager on whether a pitch would be a ball or a hit by pitch and\/or whether it would be above or below a certain speed. Betting on sports is generally a losing endeavor, but not if you know what\u2019s going to happen. And per the indictment, the bettors did, because Clase (and later, Ortiz) would agree beforehand to, say, throw a slider instead of a cutter when a wager called for a lower pitch speed or to throw a pitch way outside the strike zone when a wager called for a ball. (Say it ain\u2019t <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Shoeless_Joe_Jackson#Black_Sox_Scandal:~:text=After%20the%20grand%20jury%20returned%20its%20indictments%2C%20Charley%20Owens%20of%20the%20Chicago%20Daily%20News%20wrote%20a%20regretful%20tribute%20headlined%2C%20%22Say%20it%20ain%27t%20so%2C%20Joe.%22%5B32%5D%20The%20phrase%20became%20legendary%20when%20another%20reporter%20later%20erroneously%20attributed%20it%20to%20a%20child%20outside%20the%20courthouse%3A\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">low<\/a>.) This often took place on the first pitch of an outing or inning, when the stakes are more predictable and lower leverage than they can become later on.<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">All involved seemingly left a substantial trail of calls, texts, audio messages, and wire transfers pointing to their misdeeds. One of the bettors reportedly visited Clase\u2019s residence several times and attended games using tickets left by Clase. Most egregiously, Clase is said to have communicated with that bettor during games, including one occasion this past April when Clase texted with and talked to the bettor immediately before entering a game and rewarding a wager with a sub\u201398 mph pitch. (MLB rules forbid players from using cell phones during games, with \u201climited exceptions\u201d that surely don\u2019t include coordinating violations of the sport\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/content.mlb.com\/documents\/8\/2\/2\/296982822\/Major_League_Rule_21.pdf\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">cardinal rule<\/a> against gambling.) The indictment says that when Clase or Ortiz received payouts for their role, they pretended that the money was for purposes such as \u201crepairs at the country house\u201d or \u201cpayment for a horse.\u201d<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">Even if the charges are accurate, the charging document leaves a lot unexplained, including how the scheme started, why Clase and Ortiz did it, and how they got caught (or, more importantly, why Clase didn\u2019t get caught until this summer). If the two did what they\u2019re accused of, though, then the indictment is dead-on in saying that the defendants\u2014in roughly descending order of how much the typical baseball fan cares\u2014\u201cdefrauded betting platforms, deprived Major League Baseball and the Cleveland Guardians of their honest services, illegally enriched themselves and their co-conspirators, misled the public, and betrayed America&#8217;s pastime.\u201d Representatives for Clase and Ortiz <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/EvanDrellich\/status\/1987719514629587447\" rel=\"nofollow\">issued<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/EvanDrellich\/status\/1987619168372543812\" rel=\"nofollow\">statements<\/a> in which they claimed that their clients are innocent and anticipating their days in court.<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">Videos of shady-looking pitches have been making the rounds since Ortiz and Clase were placed on leave and reports and rumors about a gambling scandal started circulating. The indictment includes screenshots of eight balls (six by Clase and two by Ortiz) that the <a href=\"https:\/\/baseballsavant.mlb.com\/sporty-videos?playId=e7874d25-9a26-49a6-a74d-3ebf85087762\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">duo<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/baseballsavant.mlb.com\/sporty-videos?playId=08ac76eb-44b4-45c8-ac33-d9562342f1ec\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">are<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/baseballsavant.mlb.com\/sporty-videos?playId=0632466c-25ae-3eb1-939f-0a9a9f679396\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">said<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/baseballsavant.mlb.com\/sporty-videos?playId=f1a2fd34-6e5f-3e21-8f40-230fe61c0aa1\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">to<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/baseballsavant.mlb.com\/sporty-videos?playId=6527f317-c6ea-33cc-b60d-6a29b4b05689\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">have<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/baseballsavant.mlb.com\/sporty-videos?playId=169d941d-8f8d-3b40-b969-f9c392e3490d\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">thrown<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/baseballsavant.mlb.com\/sporty-videos?playId=72f0d39e-f18f-3138-b8b4-23ecb6ee4134\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">on<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/baseballsavant.mlb.com\/sporty-videos?playId=34a08db2-0efc-3db3-9b8e-e629e0c4a338\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">purpose<\/a>; in a usage of MLB.com\u2019s Film Room that the league undoubtedly didn\u2019t intend, I\u2019ve compiled them in the reel below. Follow the bouncing <a href=\"https:\/\/tvtropes.org\/pmwiki\/pmwiki.php\/Main\/FollowTheBouncingBall\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">balls<\/a>!<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">Now that we know what Clase was charged with, the statistical indicators are apparent, and they\u2019re even more glaring than in Jackson\u2019s case. Actually, looking at the numbers now is a little like realizing too late that trash-can bangs were <a href=\"https:\/\/signstealingscandal.com\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">audible<\/a> during the Astros\u2019 sign-stealing scheme and that even before the Astros\u2019 actions were public knowledge, opposing teams were <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theringer.com\/2020\/02\/27\/mlb\/houston-astros-sign-stealing-jonathan-lucroy-pace-of-play\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">taking longer<\/a> to cycle through signs when facing them, in an attempt at counterintelligence. Taken individually, Clase\u2019s wayward pitches seem like simple mistakes. Taken together, they paint a disturbing pattern.<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">The table below shows the percentage of pitches that Clase spiked\u2014that is, threw in zones 37, 38, or 39 of what MLB <a href=\"https:\/\/baseballsavant.mlb.com\/site-core\/images\/attack-zone.png\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">defines<\/a> as the \u201cwaste zone,\u201d far below the plate\u2014on 0-0 counts with no outs and none on (a decent proxy for the first pitch of the inning and on non-0-0 counts with no outs and none on, from May 2023 through July 2025. It also displays the same breakdowns for the league as a whole. The charging document doesn\u2019t specify whether Clase continued his reported pitch-fixing in the 2024 ALDS or ALCS; I\u2019m including postseason play in both samples, although excluding it wouldn\u2019t make much difference. (If you\u2019re looking for evidence that Clase was rigging in October, too, check out <a href=\"https:\/\/baseballsavant.mlb.com\/sporty-videos?playId=2761936c-48fb-4932-b5f0-0149f1a57564\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">the first pitch<\/a> he threw in that ALCS, with a 7-0 lead: a 93 mph slider so low that it caused catcher Bo Naylor to fall over.<\/p>\n<p>Low Waste Pitches on First Pitches With Zero Outs and None On, 5\/23-7\/25Sample0-0 CountAfter 0-0 CountClase Only8.1%3.9%All MLB Pitchers2.2%5.1%<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">Clase spiked pitches more than twice as often on <a href=\"https:\/\/baseballsavant.mlb.com\/statcast_search?hfPT=&amp;hfAB=&amp;hfGT=R%7CPO%7C&amp;hfPR=&amp;hfZ=&amp;hfStadium=&amp;hfBBL=&amp;hfNewZones=37%7C38%7C39%7C&amp;hfPull=&amp;hfC=00%7C&amp;hfSea=2025%7C2024%7C2023%7C&amp;hfSit=&amp;player_type=pitcher&amp;hfOuts=0%7C&amp;hfOpponent=&amp;pitcher_throws=&amp;batter_stands=&amp;hfSA=&amp;game_date_gt=2023-05-01&amp;game_date_lt=&amp;hfMo=&amp;hfTeam=&amp;home_road=&amp;hfRO=0%7C&amp;position=&amp;hfInfield=&amp;hfOutfield=&amp;hfInn=&amp;hfBBT=&amp;hfFlag=&amp;pitchers_lookup%5B%5D=661403&amp;metric_1=&amp;group_by=name&amp;min_pitches=0&amp;min_results=0&amp;min_pas=0&amp;sort_col=pitch_percent&amp;player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&amp;sort_order=desc&amp;chk_count=on&amp;chk_game_date_gt=on&amp;chk_outs=on&amp;chk_runner_on=on#results\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">first pitches<\/a> than he did on <a href=\"https:\/\/baseballsavant.mlb.com\/statcast_search?hfPT=&amp;hfAB=&amp;hfGT=R%7CPO%7C&amp;hfPR=&amp;hfZ=&amp;hfStadium=&amp;hfBBL=&amp;hfNewZones=37%7C38%7C39%7C&amp;hfPull=&amp;hfC=01%7C02%7C10%7C11%7C12%7C20%7C21%7C22%7C30%7C31%7C32%7C&amp;hfSea=2025%7C2024%7C2023%7C&amp;hfSit=&amp;player_type=pitcher&amp;hfOuts=0%7C&amp;hfOpponent=&amp;pitcher_throws=&amp;batter_stands=&amp;hfSA=&amp;game_date_gt=2023-05-01&amp;game_date_lt=&amp;hfMo=&amp;hfTeam=&amp;home_road=&amp;hfRO=0%7C&amp;position=&amp;hfInfield=&amp;hfOutfield=&amp;hfInn=&amp;hfBBT=&amp;hfFlag=&amp;pitchers_lookup%5B%5D=661403&amp;metric_1=&amp;group_by=name&amp;min_pitches=0&amp;min_results=0&amp;min_pas=0&amp;sort_col=pitch_percent&amp;player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&amp;sort_order=desc&amp;chk_count=on&amp;chk_game_date_gt=on&amp;chk_outs=on&amp;chk_runner_on=on#results\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">subsequent pitches<\/a>. That\u2019s the inverse of the overall pattern across the league; all pitchers combined spiked pitches less than half as often on <a href=\"https:\/\/baseballsavant.mlb.com\/statcast_search?hfPT=&amp;hfAB=&amp;hfGT=R%7CPO%7C&amp;hfPR=&amp;hfZ=&amp;hfStadium=&amp;hfBBL=&amp;hfNewZones=37%7C38%7C39%7C&amp;hfPull=&amp;hfC=00%7C&amp;hfSea=2025%7C2024%7C2023%7C&amp;hfSit=&amp;player_type=pitcher&amp;hfOuts=0%7C&amp;hfOpponent=&amp;pitcher_throws=&amp;batter_stands=&amp;hfSA=&amp;game_date_gt=2023-05-01&amp;game_date_lt=2025-07-31&amp;hfMo=&amp;hfTeam=&amp;home_road=&amp;hfRO=0%7C&amp;position=&amp;hfInfield=&amp;hfOutfield=&amp;hfInn=&amp;hfBBT=&amp;hfFlag=&amp;metric_1=&amp;group_by=league&amp;min_pitches=0&amp;min_results=0&amp;min_pas=0&amp;sort_col=pitch_percent&amp;player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&amp;sort_order=desc&amp;chk_count=on&amp;chk_game_date_gt=on&amp;chk_outs=on&amp;chk_game_date_lt=on&amp;chk_runner_on=on#results\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">first pitches<\/a> than they did on <a href=\"https:\/\/baseballsavant.mlb.com\/statcast_search?hfPT=&amp;hfAB=&amp;hfGT=R%7CPO%7C&amp;hfPR=&amp;hfZ=&amp;hfStadium=&amp;hfBBL=&amp;hfNewZones=37%7C38%7C39%7C&amp;hfPull=&amp;hfC=01%7C02%7C10%7C11%7C12%7C20%7C21%7C22%7C30%7C31%7C32%7C&amp;hfSea=2025%7C2024%7C2023%7C&amp;hfSit=&amp;player_type=pitcher&amp;hfOuts=0%7C&amp;hfOpponent=&amp;pitcher_throws=&amp;batter_stands=&amp;hfSA=&amp;game_date_gt=2023-05-01&amp;game_date_lt=2025-07-31&amp;hfMo=&amp;hfTeam=&amp;home_road=&amp;hfRO=0%7C&amp;position=&amp;hfInfield=&amp;hfOutfield=&amp;hfInn=&amp;hfBBT=&amp;hfFlag=&amp;metric_1=&amp;group_by=league&amp;min_pitches=0&amp;min_results=0&amp;min_pas=0&amp;sort_col=pitch_percent&amp;player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&amp;sort_order=desc&amp;chk_count=on&amp;chk_game_date_gt=on&amp;chk_outs=on&amp;chk_game_date_lt=on&amp;chk_runner_on=on#results\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">subsequent pitches<\/a> (which makes sense since pitchers tend to stay farther away from the zone when they\u2019re ahead in the count and are more liable to break out bendy pitches in search of strikeouts).<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">Maybe that seems suggestive but not conclusive, considering the number of pitches involved: 14 out of 173 first pitches and 20 out of 511 subsequent pitches from Clase. Should we cue up the small sample size <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=dw9qqvm-LT8\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">song<\/a>? Hold on; it gets worse for Clase. The table below shows the highest percentages of spiked pitches on first pitches with no outs and none on from May \u201923 through July \u201925, among pitchers with at least <a href=\"https:\/\/baseballsavant.mlb.com\/statcast_search?hfPT=&amp;hfAB=&amp;hfGT=R%7CPO%7C&amp;hfPR=&amp;hfZ=&amp;hfStadium=&amp;hfBBL=&amp;hfNewZones=37%7C38%7C39%7C&amp;hfPull=&amp;hfC=00%7C&amp;hfSea=2025%7C2024%7C2023%7C&amp;hfSit=&amp;player_type=pitcher&amp;hfOuts=0%7C&amp;hfOpponent=&amp;pitcher_throws=&amp;batter_stands=&amp;hfSA=&amp;game_date_gt=2023-05-01&amp;game_date_lt=2025-07-31&amp;hfMo=&amp;hfTeam=&amp;home_road=&amp;hfRO=0%7C&amp;position=&amp;hfInfield=&amp;hfOutfield=&amp;hfInn=&amp;hfBBT=&amp;hfFlag=&amp;metric_1=&amp;group_by=name&amp;min_pitches=125&amp;min_results=0&amp;min_pas=0&amp;sort_col=pitch_percent&amp;player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&amp;sort_order=desc&amp;chk_count=on&amp;chk_game_date_gt=on&amp;chk_outs=on&amp;chk_game_date_lt=on&amp;chk_runner_on=on#results\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">125<\/a> total pitches in those situations.<\/p>\n<p>Percentage of Low Waste Pitches on First Pitches With Zero Outs and None On, 5\/23-7\/25PitcherSpiked PitchesTotal PitchesSpiked %Emmanuel Clase141738.1Framber Valdez385027.6Josiah Gray91476.1Jos\u00e9 Ure\u00f1a101646.1Lucas Erceg91575.7Robbie Ray91685.4Reese Olson173155.4Ryan Walker91745.2Davis Martin81535.2Alec Marsh112264.9<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">Even though that pitch-total threshold is set well below the number of first pitches Clase threw, which theoretically could have allowed a more extreme, smaller-sample performance to sneak onto the list, Clase led all qualifiers. But wait; the data isn\u2019t done getting more incriminating for Clase. It\u2019s one thing to spike a high percentage of pitches when you\u2019re, say, Josiah Gray, who had the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/leaders\/major-league?pos=all&amp;stats=pit&amp;lg=all&amp;type=1&amp;ind=0&amp;startdate=&amp;enddate=&amp;season1=2023&amp;season=2023&amp;qual=150&amp;postseason=&amp;sortcol=7&amp;sortdir=default&amp;pagenum=1\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">third-highest<\/a> walk rate among pitchers with at least 150 innings pitched in 2023. It\u2019s another thing to do it when you\u2019re a control artist like Clase, who had the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/leaders\/major-league?pos=all&amp;stats=pit&amp;lg=all&amp;type=1&amp;ind=0&amp;qual=190&amp;postseason=&amp;startdate=&amp;enddate=&amp;month=0&amp;season1=2023&amp;season=2025&amp;sortcol=7&amp;sortdir=asc&amp;pagenum=1\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">10th-lowest<\/a> walk rate among pitchers who threw at least 190 innings from 2023 through 2025. In this next and last table, then, we\u2019ll compare pitchers\u2019 spike rates on 0-0 pitches with no outs and none on to the same pitchers\u2019 spike rates in the same situations on pitches after 0-0. If we set minimums of 125 total pitches for the former split and <a href=\"https:\/\/baseballsavant.mlb.com\/statcast_search?hfPT=&amp;hfAB=&amp;hfGT=R%7CPO%7C&amp;hfPR=&amp;hfZ=&amp;hfStadium=&amp;hfBBL=&amp;hfNewZones=37%7C38%7C39%7C&amp;hfPull=&amp;hfC=01%7C02%7C10%7C11%7C12%7C20%7C21%7C22%7C30%7C31%7C32%7C&amp;hfSea=2025%7C2024%7C2023%7C&amp;hfSit=&amp;player_type=pitcher&amp;hfOuts=0%7C&amp;hfOpponent=&amp;pitcher_throws=&amp;batter_stands=&amp;hfSA=&amp;game_date_gt=2023-05-01&amp;game_date_lt=2025-07-31&amp;hfMo=&amp;hfTeam=&amp;home_road=&amp;hfRO=0%7C&amp;position=&amp;hfInfield=&amp;hfOutfield=&amp;hfInn=&amp;hfBBT=&amp;hfFlag=&amp;metric_1=&amp;group_by=name&amp;min_pitches=410&amp;min_results=0&amp;min_pas=0&amp;sort_col=pitch_percent&amp;player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&amp;sort_order=desc&amp;chk_count=on&amp;chk_game_date_gt=on&amp;chk_outs=on&amp;chk_game_date_lt=on&amp;chk_runner_on=on#results\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">410<\/a> for the latter, 251 pitchers threw enough pitches to qualify.<\/p>\n<p>Ratio of Low Waste Pitches on 0-0 to After 0-0, Zero Outs and None On, 5\/23-7\/25Name0-0 PitchesAfter 0-0 Pitches0-0 %After 0-0 %RatioEmmanuel Clase1735118.13.92.08Spencer Arrighetti1694984.12.81.46Lucas Erceg1574695.74.31.33Carlos Est\u00e9vez1434361.41.11.27Mart\u00edn P\u00e9rez3008212.72.21.23Jos\u00e9 Ure\u00f1a1644876.15.51.11Mitchell Parker2907984.84.41.09Alec Marsh2266494.94.61.07Davis Martin1534515.24.91.06Luis L. Ortiz3329574.24.21.00<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">That table of 10 pitchers\u2014which, by the way, includes Ortiz at the bottom\u2014contains every one of the qualifying pitchers who spiked pitches at least as often after 0-0 as they did on 0-0. The other 241 had lower spike rates after 0-0 than they did on 0-0. Even in smallish samples, it\u2019s unusual for that trend to be reversed. Yet there\u2019s Clase, reversing it so dramatically that there\u2019s a bigger gap between his ratio and the second-place player\u2019s than between the second-place player\u2019s and the 22nd-place player\u2019s. As they say on Twitter, <a href=\"https:\/\/knowyourmeme.com\/memes\/the-ratio-ratioed\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">ratioed<\/a>. One could quibble with those precise parameters of time, count, and pitch location, but there certainly seems to be some signal, if not a statistical smoking gun, that something fishy was afoot.<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">In a sense, it\u2019s good news for baseball (if not for Clase) that the Cleveland closer clearly stands out. For one thing, it suggests that simple statistical comparisons, bolstered by <a href=\"https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/matrueblood.bsky.social\/post\/3lt3fa7c5qc2a\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">analyses<\/a> of release points, spin rates, and speeds, could flag bad behavior, giving MLB another tool with which to police illicit betting. For another, Clase\u2019s outlier status could be taken as a sign that behavior like his hasn\u2019t been rampant. MLB could dismiss him as a bad apple who corrupted a countryman and teammate; he and Ortiz, who hail from the Dominican Republic and are less than a year apart in age, are <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/6521777\/2025\/07\/29\/emmanuel-clase-guardians-mlb-gambling-probe-shane-bieber-trade-deadline\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">reportedly<\/a> \u201cclose friends\u201d who occupied <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/6521125\/2025\/07\/28\/cleveland-guardians-emmanuel-clase-investigation\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">adjacent lockers<\/a> in spring training following the three-team trade that brought Ortiz to the Guardians last December. To make Clase look worse, he has a history of cheating; he was <a href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/mlb\/story\/_\/id\/29124359\/indians-reliever-emmanuel-clase-suspended-80-games-ped\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">suspended<\/a> in 2020 after testing positive for the steroid boldenone, months after Cleveland traded Corey Kluber to Texas for Clase and Delino DeShields Jr.<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">An aggressively glass-half-full observer could also stress that <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/clase-ortiz-indictment-pitches-71ddc7ce329118400131e86f2e6021f2\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">the reportedly rigged pitches<\/a> by Clase that are identified in the indictment\u2014which, admittedly, may be but a fraction of his total transgressions\u2014didn\u2019t conclusively cost Cleveland any games: Either the batter who reportedly got gifted a 1-0 count was subsequently retired or stranded on base, or he reached and scored but the Guardians won anyway. (In both of the Ortiz incidents, the leadoff batter reached and scored, but additional runs were scored against Cleveland later in the game, and the Guardians got shut out.)\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">Which would all be well and good if not for one takeaway that\u2019s inescapable, assuming the indictment\u2019s details hold up: Clase seemingly rigged pitches with impunity for more than two years. For all that time, MLB, the sportsbooks, and the feds either didn\u2019t detect his activities or didn\u2019t act to curtail them. The indictment doesn\u2019t say how the scheme came to light, but conspiracies are harder to keep secret when more people are involved, and this one seems to have been discovered not long after Ortiz got in on the action. A July ESPN <a href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/mlb\/story\/_\/id\/45657609\/guardians-luis-ortiz-mlb-investigation-placed-leave\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">report<\/a> said that a betting integrity firm had flagged \u201cunusual gambling activity\u201d on two Ortiz pitches, and given that Clase reportedly instigated Ortiz\u2019s involvement, the scrutiny of Ortiz may have led to Clase\u2019s exposure. If so, perhaps Clase could have kept going indefinitely if he\u2019d stayed a solo act.<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">That possibility is particularly galling given that the leagues, the sportsbooks, and other advocates of legal sports betting <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/6750304\/2025\/10\/25\/mlb-commissioner-manfred-sports-betting-partnerships\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">consistently insist<\/a> that officially sanctioned sports betting helps protect the integrity of the games. There\u2019s a certain logic to that argument: Leagues and sportsbooks are heavily incentivized to safeguard the perception that games are on the level, and it\u2019s easier to monitor legal bets through an app than illegal bets through a bookie or an offshore site. It\u2019s possible that we were better off not knowing so much about the seedy side of sports\u2014ignorance being bliss, and all that\u2014but if gambling was <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=vxnpY0owPkA\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">going on<\/a> in a way that swayed wins and losses (or even individual stats), most fans would want it rooted out. Gambling boosters might point to the NBA\u2019s swift investigation and banning of Jontay Porter after <a href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/nba\/story\/_\/id\/39808900\/nba-eyes-raptors-jontay-porter-betting-issues\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">his<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/ShamsCharania\/status\/1780632571526914493\" rel=\"nofollow\">actions<\/a> on March 20 of last year, or even Ortiz\u2019s sidelining less than a week after his alleged rigged ball on June 27.<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">But March 20 wasn\u2019t Porter\u2019s first violation, and June 27 wasn\u2019t Ortiz\u2019s. And what of Terry Rozier, who was <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/6765257\/2025\/10\/31\/nba-gambling-investigation-betting-future-rozier\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">investigated and cleared<\/a> by the NBA years before his <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theringer.com\/2025\/10\/24\/nba\/nba-gambling-scandal-chauncey-billups-terry-rozier-adam-silver\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">indictment<\/a> last month? Or MLB\u2019s failure to flag Clase\u2019s apparent pattern of pitch-fixing? If that kind of bad behavior can go undetected and unpunished for so long, then the new normal is mostly downside, as devil\u2019s bargains often are: a vast increase in sports wagering, without a commensurate strengthening of integrity guardrails. We would then be left to depend on the hope that well-paid pro athletes simply won\u2019t see the upside in risking their careers for modest amounts of money.<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">And sure, they shouldn\u2019t. Even Ortiz, who wasn\u2019t making much more than the $760,000 major league minimum salary, was unwise to put his future earnings at stake for the $5,000 and $7,000, respectively, he reportedly received for throwing two balls on purpose. (That $5,000 was worth a lot more in 1919. Clase signed a $20 million <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mlbtraderumors.com\/2022\/04\/guardians-emmanuel-clase-agree-to-extension.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">extension<\/a> in 2022, and although he was underpaid relative to his production (as so many pre-arbitration or pre\u2013free agency stars are), the pittance he reportedly received for rigging pitches hardly changed the equation. As far as we know, Clase and Ortiz weren\u2019t acting under duress, but athletes might make seemingly <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/opinion\/newsletters\/2025-07-09\/goldman-wants-quarterly-loyalty-updates\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">senseless<\/a> decisions about betting for any number of other <a href=\"https:\/\/sports.yahoo.com\/nba\/article\/why-do-millionaire-athletes-get-involved-with-gambling-221025316.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">reasons<\/a>: because they\u2019re trying to do an ill-advised favor for a friend because they\u2019re intensely competitive, because they think they can\u2019t lose or get caught, because they rationalize their behavior as not being a big deal.<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">Presented with a pitch-fixing opportunity, Ortiz could tell himself that he\u2019d thrown balls on roughly <a href=\"https:\/\/baseballsavant.mlb.com\/statcast_search?hfPT=&amp;hfAB=&amp;hfGT=R%7CPO%7C&amp;hfPR=ball%7Cblocked%5C.%5C.ball%7C&amp;hfZ=&amp;hfStadium=&amp;hfBBL=&amp;hfNewZones=&amp;hfPull=&amp;hfC=00%7C&amp;hfSea=2025%7C2024%7C2023%7C2022%7C&amp;hfSit=&amp;player_type=pitcher&amp;hfOuts=&amp;hfOpponent=&amp;pitcher_throws=&amp;batter_stands=&amp;hfSA=&amp;game_date_gt=&amp;game_date_lt=&amp;hfMo=&amp;hfTeam=&amp;home_road=&amp;hfRO=&amp;position=&amp;hfInfield=&amp;hfOutfield=&amp;hfInn=&amp;hfBBT=&amp;hfFlag=&amp;pitchers_lookup%5B%5D=682847&amp;metric_1=&amp;group_by=name&amp;min_pitches=0&amp;min_results=0&amp;min_pas=0&amp;sort_col=pitch_percent&amp;player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&amp;sort_order=desc&amp;chk_count=on#results\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">40 percent<\/a> of all first pitches; maybe he\u2019d throw one even without trying to. Clase could say that he wanted to throw a slider anyway or that he was nasty enough to overcome falling behind by a ball. Most of the time, he would\u2019ve been right. Still, wasting even one pitch on purpose comes at a cost to the team and, in the long run, the player. On average, the value of changing a strike to a ball is about <a href=\"https:\/\/tht.fangraphs.com\/dynamic-run-value-of-throwing-a-strike-instead-of-a-ball\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">.14 runs<\/a>; it\u2019s roughly half that on 0-0. If the going rate for a win in free agency is approximately <a href=\"https:\/\/www.paraballnotes.com\/blog\/dollarwar-in-the-20242025-mlb-free-agency-market\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">$8 million<\/a> and there are roughly 10 runs to a win, then we\u2019re talking $800k per run, or upward of $50,000 per 0-0 strike conversion. It\u2019s a fraction of that for Ortiz, who can expect a strike on <a href=\"https:\/\/baseballsavant.mlb.com\/statcast_search?hfPT=&amp;hfAB=&amp;hfGT=R%7CPO%7C&amp;hfPR=called%5C.%5C.strike%7Cfoul%7Cfoul%5C.%5C.bunt%7Cbunt%5C.%5C.foul%5C.%5C.tip%7Cfoul%5C.%5C.pitchout%7Cfoul%5C.%5C.tip%7Cswinging%5C.%5C.pitchout%7Cswinging%5C.%5C.strike%7Cswinging%5C.%5C.strike%5C.%5C.blocked%7C&amp;hfZ=&amp;hfStadium=&amp;hfBBL=&amp;hfNewZones=&amp;hfPull=&amp;hfC=00%7C&amp;hfSea=2025%7C2024%7C2023%7C2022%7C&amp;hfSit=&amp;player_type=pitcher&amp;hfOuts=&amp;hfOpponent=&amp;pitcher_throws=&amp;batter_stands=&amp;hfSA=&amp;game_date_gt=&amp;game_date_lt=&amp;hfMo=&amp;hfTeam=&amp;home_road=&amp;hfRO=&amp;position=&amp;hfInfield=&amp;hfOutfield=&amp;hfInn=&amp;hfBBT=&amp;hfFlag=&amp;pitchers_lookup%5B%5D=682847&amp;metric_1=&amp;group_by=name&amp;min_pitches=0&amp;min_results=0&amp;min_pas=0&amp;sort_col=pitch_percent&amp;player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&amp;sort_order=desc&amp;chk_count=on#results\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">a little less than half<\/a> of his honest 0-0 pitches, but it\u2019s still more than he made (or would be more than he made, if he were closer to cashing in as a free agent).<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">There\u2019s another reason a well-compensated competitor might throw it all away on a wager: because they\u2019re addicted to gambling, as are a growing number of young American men. Here, the leagues have a qualified culpability. There\u2019s nothing inherently hypocritical about a league promoting gambling to fans while prohibiting it for players: The former can\u2019t affect the proceedings, while the latter can. But it\u2019s virtually certain that pervasive advertising, which the leagues (and, yes, sports media companies, including The Ringer) have endorsed and helped drive, has made the temptation tougher to resist. Regulation of advertising, and of some of the sportsbooks\u2019 more predatory policies, could address that problem to some extent. Countries that have allowed legal gambling\u2014and felt its ill effects\u2014for longer than the U.S. has have already taken some steps down that road.<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">The more politically expedient path may be banning parlays and\/or prop bets. It\u2019s hard enough to make one winning bet; parlays pay off even more rarely because they depend on a bunch of bets being right. Perhaps the best illustration of parlays being bad business for bettors is a tidbit in the indictment about one parlay involving Clase. One of the bettors reportedly \u201cplaced approximately 16 parlay bets in which one leg of each parlay was that eight specific pitches by Clase would be a ball\/HBP.\u201d Seven of the eight pitches proceeded as had apparently been planned, but the eighth backfired when free-swinging Andy Pages <a href=\"https:\/\/baseballsavant.mlb.com\/sporty-videos?playId=f1a08522-1cea-3e3e-b869-52d04df41924\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">swung at and missed a pitch<\/a> well below the zone. Even when the fix is in, it might not be enough to nail a parlay.<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">With parlays, the house almost always wins. With <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/ideas\/archive\/2025\/10\/nba-gambling-prop-bets\/684679\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">prop bets<\/a>, the house almost always wins except when it\u2019s set up to lose by a duplicitous, unscrupulous player. In 2021, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred <a href=\"https:\/\/dodgerblue.com\/adam-silver-advice-rob-manfred-mlb-pace-of-play-sports-betting\/2021\/04\/28\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">divulged<\/a> that NBA commissioner Adam Silver had advised him not to dwell on baseball\u2019s deliberate pace because all that time between its hundreds of thousands of pitches per season made the sport perfect for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/local\/cleveland\/2023\/03\/30\/micro-betting-baseball\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">micro-betting<\/a>\u2014an in-game, real-time form of prop bet along the lines of the kind Clase is accused of abusing, which wasn\u2019t even feasible in sports betting\u2019s bookie-based era, before smartphones and apps. Micro-bets are made for problem gamblers\u2014both the kind that can\u2019t lose and the kind that can\u2019t win.<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">Manfred, to his credit, pursued the pitch clock anyway. Now, even Silver, the first acting commissioner to publicly support the legalization of sports betting, is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/nba\/story\/_\/id\/46675288\/nba-commish-adam-silver-calls-more-gambling-regulation\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">pumping the brakes<\/a> on prop bets. So is Manfred, who in July <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/manfred-mlb-broadcast-contracts-c4064adb75dd4e4855e9f0c77ed34159\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">told<\/a> reporters, \u201cThere are certain types of bets that strike me as unnecessary and particularly vulnerable, things where it\u2019s one single act, doesn\u2019t affect the outcome necessarily.\u201d Manfred and MLBPA executive director Tony Clark don\u2019t agree on much, but Clark is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/6748455\/2025\/10\/24\/mlb-union-eliminate-prop-betting-tony-clark\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">concerned<\/a> about prop bets, too, if only because they invariably lead <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/5916434\/2024\/11\/20\/nhl-player-poll-sports-betting-harassment\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">to<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/6385628\/2025\/06\/11\/mlb-sports-betting-gambling-player-poll\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">harassment<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/college-sports\/story\/_\/id\/46521744\/study-betting-related-abuse-college-athletes-common-online\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">of<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/6077963\/2025\/02\/12\/nba-sports-betting-players\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">athletes<\/a> when people\u2019s prob bets backfire. MLB could confiscate players\u2019 phones during games like Bob Dylan <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coventrytelegraph.net\/whats-on\/music-nightlife-news\/bob-dylan-fans-phones-locked-32838086\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">does<\/a> attendees\u2019 during concerts, but that alone would be a Band-Aid on a wound that needs stitches.<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">In Ohio, where the Guardians play, Governor Mike DeWine has championed a <a href=\"https:\/\/governor.ohio.gov\/media\/news-and-media\/governor-dewine-calls-on-casino-control-commission-to-remove-prop-bets-following-mlb-investigation-previous-player-threats\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">ban<\/a> of player prop bets in collegiate sports and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.espnfrontrow.com\/2024\/05\/journalism-showcase-outside-the-lines-examines-issue-of-prop-bets-on-anniversary-of-legal-sports-betting\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">called<\/a> for a federal ban on pro prop bets (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cleveland.com\/metro\/2025\/10\/dewine-waits-on-pro-sports-to-limit-prop-bets-the-wake-up-for-tuesday-oct-28-2025.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">particularly<\/a> micro-prop bets). He <a href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/espn\/betting\/story\/_\/id\/45927585\/ohio-regulators-weighing-ban-first-pitch-wagers-other-prop-bets\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">renewed that campaign<\/a> this summer, spurred by reports of the two Guardians\u2019 disgrace. Late last month, he <a href=\"https:\/\/www.statenews.org\/government-politics\/2025-10-31\/ohio-governor-mlb-sportsbooks-close-to-deal-to-ban-micro-prop-bets\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">said<\/a> that Manfred had told him that MLB was close to blocking those bets.<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">As the <a href=\"https:\/\/ifunny.co\/picture\/the-best-time-to-delete-this-post-was-immediately-after-oNCMsqhi6\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">image<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/imgflip.com\/memegenerator\/357367124\/The-best-time-to-delete-this-post\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">macro<\/a> goes, the best time to delete these props was before they ensnared major league pitchers. The second-best time is now. Even if outright match-fixing is <a href=\"https:\/\/frontofficesports.com\/sports-betting-is-growing-but-match-fixing-continues-to-drop\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">on the decline<\/a> globally, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/sports\/baseball\/spot-fixing-mlb-cricket-soccer-a573caaa\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">spot-fixing<\/a> continues to plague plenty of sports\u2014soccer, cricket, and tennis among them. In the U.S., the drumbeat of betting scandals is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/espn\/betting\/story\/_\/id\/39908218\/a-line-sports-gambling-scandals-2018\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">building<\/a>. And if someone on Clase\u2019s salary is susceptible, then imagine minor leaguers\u2019 or <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcsports.com\/ncaa\/news\/ncaa-revokes-eligibility-of-six-more-college-basketball-players-as-it-continues-sports-betting-probe\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">amateur<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/college-sports\/story\/_\/id\/46762598\/ncaa-delays-rule-change-permitting-college-athletes-bet-professional-sports\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">athletes\u2019<\/a> liability. Recent polling by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pewresearch.org\/short-reads\/2025\/10\/02\/americans-increasingly-see-legal-sports-betting-as-a-bad-thing-for-society-and-sports\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Pew<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/today.yougov.com\/politics\/articles\/53322-government-shutdown-wealth-inequality-economy-nuclear-weapons-sports-betting-october-31-november-3-2025-economist-yougov-poll\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">YouGov<\/a> shows that Americans\u2014even those who have bet on sports\u2014increasingly believe that the practice as constituted is bad for both society and sports. Whether because they\u2019ve experienced the dangers firsthand or because they\u2019re just tired of hearing about people\u2019s props, young men in Clase and Ortiz\u2019s age range are among the most vehemently opposed, compared with their past positions.<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">MLB has weathered multiple scandals stemming from player, manager, or umpire bets on baseball, from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theringer.com\/2025\/05\/15\/mlb\/pete-rose-reinstated-mlb-ineligible-list-hall-of-fame\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Pete Rose<\/a> to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mlb.com\/news\/mlb-announces-sports-betting-violation-suspensions\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Tucupita Marcano<\/a> to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/5565735\/2024\/06\/14\/mlb-umpire-pat-hoberg-disciplined-gambling\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Pat Hoberg<\/a>. But out of naivete or not, not since the Black Sox has there been a <a href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2002\/12\/12\/rose-probe-bombshell-dowd-had-evidence-pete-bet-against-reds-rose-exposed-prober-he-likely-wagered-against-the-reds\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">substantiated<\/a> allegation that a player intentionally tanked a pitch or a play because of a bet. Rigging pitches isn\u2019t as bad as rigging games (let alone World Series games), but the difference is one of degree, not kind. At least steroid users and sign stealers were trying to win.<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">After a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mlb.com\/press-release\/press-release-mlb-attendance-reaches-71-4-million-three-straight-years-of-growth-for-first-time-since-2007\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">robust regular season<\/a> and an all-timer of a postseason, capped off by a World Series that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theringer.com\/2025\/11\/02\/mlb\/los-angeles-dodgers-world-series-champions-game-7\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">swung on a succession<\/a> of coin toss\u2013type plays and yielded <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mlb.com\/press-release\/press-release-51-million-average-viewers-watched-world-series-game-seven-in-u-s-canada-and-japan-combined\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">banner ratings<\/a>, MLB was riding high. Now that this scandal has spiraled into the latest <a href=\"https:\/\/www.si.com\/extra-mustard\/2016\/12\/29\/sis-2016-signs-apocalypse\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">sign of the sports-betting apocalypse<\/a>, the league\u2019s good vibes are badly dinged, Clase\u2019s and Ortiz\u2019s careers are probably ruined (even if the charges against them don\u2019t stick) and fans are left to wonder whether every pitch that\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=IVP9WUGdgPg\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">just a bit outside<\/a> is really on the level. If pitches are fixed, baseball is broken.<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">Baseball is incessantly said to be a game of failure, and while it hardly has a unique claim to that distinction\u2014most sports are rooted in futility, because a game of nonstop success would be boring\u2014all of that unwilling ignominy can camouflage purposeful failure. With apologies (sort of) to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/blog\/chicago\/white-sox\/post\/_\/id\/14539\/sabermetrics-hawk-prefers-twtw\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Hawk Harrelson<\/a>, players can\u2019t truly will themselves to win, but they can intentionally lose. And when they succeed, however briefly, at failing, we all lose\u2014even if we weren\u2019t gullible enough to bet on them to win.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><a data-sentry-element=\"Link\" data-sentry-source-file=\"creator.tsx\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theringer.com\/creator\/ben-lindbergh\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img alt=\"\" data-sentry-element=\"Image\" data-sentry-source-file=\"creator.tsx\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-nimg=\"fill\" class=\"ui-object-cover ui-shadow-expressive-dark-medium ui-rounded-full ui-outline ui-outline-1 ui-outline-black ui-grayscale hover:ui-brightness-80 motion-safe:ui-transition-all\" style=\"position:absolute;height:100%;width:100%;left:0;top:0;right:0;bottom:0;object-position:50% 50%;color:transparent\"   src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/1762786690_267_image\"\/><\/a><a data-sentry-element=\"Link\" data-sentry-source-file=\"creator.tsx\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theringer.com\/creator\/ben-lindbergh\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><\/p>\n<p>Ben Lindbergh<\/p>\n<p><\/a>Ben is a writer, podcaster, and editor who covers culture and sports. He hosts \u2018Effectively Wild\u2019 at FanGraphs and previously wrote for FiveThirtyEight and Grantland, served as editor-in-chief of Baseball Prospectus, and authored \u2018The MVP Machine\u2019 and \u2018The Only Rule Is It Has to Work.\u2019<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"MLBMLBThe prop-betting scandal surrounding Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz is a threat to MLB and a warning sign&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":274404,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[435],"tags":[49,48,462,82],"class_list":{"0":"post-274403","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-mlb","8":"tag-ca","9":"tag-canada","10":"tag-mlb","11":"tag-sports"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/274403","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=274403"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/274403\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/274404"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=274403"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=274403"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=274403"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}