Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail\u2019s market strategist Scott Barlow<\/p>\n
Bears!<\/p>\n
Wells Fargo equity analyst Ohsung Kwon published the self-explanatory \u201cWhy so bearish? Debunking five bear cases\u201d and here are some excerpts,<\/p>\n
\u201c1. Liquidity is tight: It was, led by a big TGA [Treasury General Account] refill absorbed by the market. But SOFR [secured overnight finance rate] is largely back to normal, the TGA is at the highest since COVID, and QT is ending. Liquidity conditions should get better. 2. Weak consumer + layoffs: Yet, a Dec cut is only 63 per cent priced in. We expect a cut and a risk-on rally. 3. 10-per-cent-plus sell-off over 1-2 years: That\u2019s the norm. 10-per-cent-or-more corrections occur 0.8 times a year on average 4. Hyperscalers are overspending: We also worry that hyperscalers\u2019 capex is \u2018a must\u2019 to stay competitive, which will prolong the capex cycle (and pressure FCF ). But shouldn\u2019t that be great news for AI infra stocks? ASOX [AI semiconductor index] was down as much as 7 per cent from its peak. Buy the dip in AI capex takers – we prefer Power and SMID AI capex beneficiaries. 5. Valuation is too high: Fair, but valuation is only half the equation – the other half is EPS surprise. If EPS grows at 10 per cent per year over the next 5 years (we forecast 10 per cent or more per year in 2025-27E), then SPX should generate 8-per-cent-per-yearr total return for the next 5 years according to our valuation model, or 9500 by year-end 2030\u201d<\/p>\n
Labour <\/p>\n
BMO senior economist Sal Guatieri identified an important distinction within the domestic labour market,<\/p>\n
\u201cThe recent rebound in Canadian employment is led by large firms with more than 500 employees. In fact, that\u2019s been the story for a while, with large firms creating a net 592,000 positions this year (on a non-seasonally adjusted basis), while firms with 500 or fewer workers have cut staff by 300,000. Moreover, job gains among large firms are spread across industries, led by education and public administration. The difference in hiring trends may reflect the greater ability of large firms to adjust to tariffs and an uncertain policy environment. This divergence by firm size raises a downside risk. Large firms account for only 20% of total employment. So, unless they keep punching above their weight\u2014or smaller companies ramp up hiring\u2014overall job growth could weaken\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cBMO: \u201cCanadian employment \u2013 the big get bigger\u201d\u201d \u2013 (excerpt, chart) Bluesky<\/a> <\/p>\n Top themes<\/p>\n Morgan Stanley quantitative analyst Stephan Kessler updated clients on Morgan\u2019s top investment themes,<\/p>\n \u201cAI & Tech Diffusion. While AI continues to reshape industries, economies, and everyday life, attention is expanding from enablers\/infrastructure to downstream adopters. Agentic AI moves into enterprise workflows and monetisation broadens; embodied AI (robots, AVs, drones, space) is likely to advance quickly. Future of Energy. Focus broadens from decarbonisation to capacity and security: AI-driven load growth, LNG globalisation, grid\/nuclear\/storage upgrades, and wider electrification. As emissions overshoot targets, climate adaptation and resilience models gain relevance. Longevity. Aging demographics reshape demand across healthcare, consumption, and finance. Key debates: AI-enabled care; GLP-1s and adjacent therapies; affordable nutrition; re-skilling older workforces; and rising demand for retirement planning and advice. Multipolar World. Security-driven industrial policy is rewiring trade and supply chains: more local control, dual-sourcing, and export-control compliance. Likely beneficiaries include defense, logistics, and other critical technologies. This theme intersects with the others and amplifies their dispersion\u201d<\/p>\n Bluesky post of the day<\/p>\n New MMI piece: We look at the 3.5 million people in Canada who live in a home that is too small to meet their needs, and how a mismanaged push by governments and urban planners towards densification is at odds with the human right to housing.<\/p>\n Read here: www.missingmiddleini…<\/p>\n [image or embed]<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Dr. Mike P. Moffatt (@mikepmoffatt.bsky.social<\/a>) November 11, 2025 at 7:34 AM<\/a>Diversion<\/p>\n