Last week\u2019s record<\/a>: 4-0, +4.02 units
Season record: 29-19, +8.55 units, +16.3% ROI<\/p>\nNFL Week 11 best betsLos Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars under 44 (-109)<\/p>\n
Worst price to bet: Under 44 (-115)<\/p>\n
Without Joe Alt, the Chargers have been abysmal on offense this year. When Alt has been on the field for the Chargers this season, they rank inside the top seven in EPA per play and success rate. Without him, their EPA per play drops to 21st, and their success rate falls to 12th. A significant drop, no matter how you slice it. Sure, the Jaguars\u2019 defense isn\u2019t a great unit, and maybe the Chargers can find some success. But I also don\u2019t think the Jaguars offense is going to be able to march down the field on this defense. Lawrence hasn\u2019t been good this year, but he has been a tad bit better when facing the blitz. Similar to last week against Aaron Rodgers, the Chargers will be able to get pressure on Lawrence without blitzing. I have a hard time seeing many points scored in this game.<\/p>\n
Los Angeles Rams -2.5 (-118) vs. Seattle Seahawks<\/p>\n
Worst price to bet: Rams -2.5 (-120)<\/p>\n
I was on the Seahawks in a big way last week, and they found a way to put that game on ice well before halftime. They\u2019ve been very impressive this season, and I consider them one of the best teams in the NFC. Unfortunately, they go on the road this week to face a team that my model has better than them. The biggest concern that I have for Seattle right now is that they\u2019re benefitting from a lot of downfield throws, and whether that is going to continue to happen against quality defenses. In fact, they haven\u2019t played too many defenses that I\u2019d consider above average, so this will be a new test on the road. Either way, my model thinks the Rams are better and they\u2019re at home.<\/p>\n
Cleveland Browns +8.5 (-115) vs. Baltimore Ravens<\/p>\n
Worst price to bet: Browns +7.5 (-110)<\/p>\n
The Browns\u2019 offense is horrible; there is no denying that. The defense is pretty good, of course. This is a lot of points for the Ravens to be laying on the road in a divisional game, and that\u2019s before you get into asking yourself whether Lamar Jackson is 100 percent. Since his return from the hamstring injury, Lamar has not been able to hit explosive runs and didn\u2019t rush for a single first down against the Vikings last week. That\u2019s a concern for me when laying more than a touchdown on the road. Again, the Browns might not be able to score in this one, but I think the defense will keep them in it.<\/p>\n
Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles under 49 (-110)<\/p>\n
Worst price to bet: Under 48 (-110)<\/p>\n
Our friends over at BetMGM have been kind enough to give us the best price in market on this under, and I will not be passing it up. At first glance, playing an under involving the Lions is always scary, but considering the upgrades the Eagles made on defense and the fact that their offense just hasn\u2019t quite figured everything out on offense, getting into the 50s seems like a tall task. The key to stopping this Lions\u2019 offense is getting pressure on Jared Goff \u2014 which is easier said than done \u2014 but when you do get to him, he turns into a bottom-third quarterback. The upgrades on defense at the trade deadline for the Eagles should allow them to get off the field enough to keep this game in the 40s.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Get your brooms out! My NFL Projection Model swept the board last week, and we are now up…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":276578,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[436],"tags":[49,48,1724,3163,1725,2210,1749,514,1747,82,6452],"class_list":["post-276577","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nfl","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-cleveland-browns","tag-detroit-lions","tag-jacksonville-jaguars","tag-los-angeles-chargers","tag-los-angeles-rams","tag-nfl","tag-philadelphia-eagles","tag-sports","tag-sports-betting"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/276577","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=276577"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/276577\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/276578"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=276577"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=276577"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=276577"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}