LAS VEGAS \u2013 By now, you know the names. Tarik Skubal. Freddy Peralta. Joe Ryan. Sandy Alc\u00e1ntara. MacKenzie Gore. All high-end starting pitchers. All candidates to be traded. But the over-under on how many actually get dealt might be lower than you think.<\/p>\n
This early in the offseason, teams frequently mask their intentions, making it difficult to know what to believe. Gore, who has only two years of club control remaining with a rebuilding Washington Nationals club under new general manager Paul Toboni, seems a good bet to go. The others? Maybe not.<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s proceed one by one:<\/p>\n
Skubal<\/p>\n
As one Detroit Tigers person put it, \u201cWe want to win with him.\u201d Well, 2026 figures to be their last chance. Top Scott Boras clients hardly ever sign extensions when they are this close to free agency.<\/p>\n
The Tigers surely could do better in a trade of Skubal than they would through draft-pick compensation if he left as a free agent. But to what end? The Tigers have reached the postseason the past two years, reviving baseball in Detroit thanks in large part to Skubal\u2019s presence. Trading him almost certainly would amount to a step back short-term.<\/p>\n
A deadline deal might make sense if the Tigers fall out of contention, but the odds of that happening in the AL Central are slim. And another thing: If the Tigers lose Skubal as a free agent, his roster spot would not become a black hole. The team would try, as best it could, to replace him.<\/p>\n
Peralta<\/p>\n
Like Skubal, Peralta is entering his walk year. Faced with a similar situation two years ago, the Milwaukee Brewers traded Corbin Burnes to the Baltimore Orioles for shortstop Joey Ortiz, left-hander D.L. Hall and the 34th pick in the 2024 draft.<\/p>\n
The difference with Peralta is that he is set to earn $8 million while Burnes was due nearly twice that amount. The modest salary makes Peralta highly attractive to potential suitors, but also quite affordable for the Brewers. They can take the same route with him that they did with shortstop Willy Adames, another player who was essential to the team\u2019s fabric. The Brewers kept Adames until he was a free agent, then received the 32nd pick in the draft after he signed with the San Francisco Giants.<\/p>\n
Alc\u00e1ntara<\/p>\n
Chances are, the Marlins will trade Alc\u00e1ntara or fellow right-hander Edward Cabrera. But after a 17-win improvement from 2024 to \u201825, club officials are feeling frisky, confident the team can be even more competitive in \u201826. Keeping the rotation intact would make that goal more realistic.<\/p>\n
Which isn\u2019t to say the Marlins won\u2019t jump at the right offer for Alc\u00e1ntara, particularly with him guaranteed $17 million this season plus a $2 million buyout on a $21 million club option for 2027.<\/p>\n
Alc\u00e1ntara had a 7.22 ERA before the All-Star Game, a 3.33 ERA after. The Marlins know his value. They also know he can help them win.<\/p>\n
Ryan<\/p>\n
Minnesota Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey sounds like a man trying to keep his balance in a hurricane, telling reporters Tuesday, \u201cI remain personally committed to figuring out what are the ways we can add to this group to make it better.\u201d<\/p>\n
The question is whether Twins ownership shares Falvey\u2019s desire. It certainly did not at the deadline, when it essentially instructed Falvey to tear apart the club. The addition of two new investors could alter the equation, or at least Falvey hopes it does. Otherwise, Ryan still could be a goner, along with fellow right-hander Pablo L\u00f3pez. And if those two go, The Athletic\u2019s Dan Hayes writes that center fielder Byron Buxton could follow.<\/p>\n
Waiting on Woodruff<\/p>\n
The Milwaukee Brewers\u2019 decision to extend right-hander Brandon Woodruff a one-year, $22.025 million qualifying offer was stunning for a low-revenue team that generally resists paying players big money. Only one player, outfielder Christian Yelich, has received a higher annual salary as a Brewer, $26 million per year from 2022 through \u201828.<\/p>\n
Woodruff, who turns 33 in February, has made only 12 starts the past two seasons coming off shoulder surgery and missed the postseason due to a right lat strain that was unrelated to his prior injury. But the market for starting pitching might be so robust, he still might reject the Brewers\u2019 offer.<\/p>\n
Interested clubs, in fact, might view the Brewers\u2019 willingness to pay Woodruff a combined $17.5 million for him to barely pitch in 2024 and \u201825 and willingness to sign him for another $22.05 million as evidence of their faith in his health going forward.<\/p>\n
There also is this: The qualifying offer for Woodruff is not out of line when compared to the Boston Red Sox\u2019s signing last offseason of free-agent right-hander Walker Buehler to a one-year, $21.05 million contract.<\/p>\n
Buehler, after missing all of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery, had a 5.38 ERA in 16 starts in 2024 before rallying in the postseason. Woodruff, on the other hand, performed well when available, producing a 3.20 ERA and 26.8 percent strikeout-minus-walk rate that would have been a career best over a full season.<\/p>\n
The Buehler deal was the kind a big-market team easily could absorb even if it went awry \u2013 and it did, with the Red Sox releasing Buehler in late August. The Brewers, though, view their situation with Woodruff as something of a win-win.<\/p>\n
If Woodruff signs elsewhere for more than $50 million, they will receive a draft pick at the end of the first round (if he signs for less than $50 million, the pick would be after Competitive Balance Round B, in the 75 to 80 range). But if Woodruff stays and the Brewers also keep Peralta, their rotation will be in good shape.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019re focused on bringing him back,\u201d Brewers general manager Matt Arnold. \u201cHe\u2019s been a guy you can count on in big games for years. He\u2019s maybe the best big-game pitcher that I\u2019ve been around. We\u2019re in a window where we want to be competitive. And we think he can help us.\u201d<\/p>\n
D\u00edaz looking for D\u00edaz money<\/p>\n
When Edwin D\u00edaz signed his five-year, $102 million contract with the New York Mets in Nov. 2022, it was the largest in history for a reliever. D\u00edaz, though, reached that agreement before becoming a free agent. By opting out of the final two years and $38 million of that deal, he essentially created his first \u2013 and potentially last \u2013 chance to test the open market.<\/p>\n
D\u00edaz, who turns 32 in March, is coming off one of his best seasons, one in which he produced a 1.63 ERA with a 38 percent strikeout rate and 8.1 percent walk rate in 66 1\/3 innings. The deal he wants, according to a person briefed on his wishes, is essentially the same one the Mets gave him the last time.<\/p>\n