If you\u2019re a Toronto sports fan, you\u2019ve had a busy fall. You watched the Toronto Blue Jays stumble down the stretch in September, only to find their footing just in time to win the AL East on the regular season\u2019s final day. Then you watched them handle the New York Yankees in the ALDS before coming back to beat the Seattle Mariners in a thrilling Game 7 classic in the ALCS. That led to one of the greatest World Series ever played, with the underdog Jays giving the fat cat Los Angeles Dodgers all they could handle before losing a heartbreaking winner-take-all showdown, literally coming just inches away from a championship.<\/p>\n
After all of that, you probably needed some time off to recover. But now the snow has arrived, and it\u2019s time to turn your attention back to that other blue-and-white team that\u2019s still playing. Right, the Maple Leafs, that\u2019s what they\u2019re called. It\u2019s time to start watching them again.<\/p>\n
So, you may be wondering: How are the Leafs doing?<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s get you caught up, with my special guide to the Maple Leafs season for Blue Jays fans who haven\u2019t been paying attention because of the whole agonizing championship near-miss thing. We\u2019ll do this in a Q&A format, and by the end, you\u2019ll be back up to speed on everything you missed.<\/p>\n
Whew, that sure was an exhausting MLB playoff run. It didn\u2019t end the way we wanted it to, but it was full of thrilling wins, clutch performances and hero-making individual efforts from the biggest stars in the biggest moments, all in front of roaring crowds cheering on a team that was genuinely likeable from top to bottom and clearly loved playing together. <\/p>\n
Anyway, how about those Leafs?<\/p>\n
(Smiling broadly while gritting teeth so hard they grind into sand.)<\/p>\n
Are they good? They had 108 points and even won a playoff round last year, and then they got decent marks for navigating a tough offseason. They\u2019re probably pretty good, right?<\/p>\n
Um \u2026 I wouldn\u2019t say \u201cgood.\u201d I mean, all of this stuff is subjective, but \u201cgood\u201d feels a little strong. Let\u2019s stay away from good.<\/p>\n
Oof. So they\u2019re bad.<\/p>\n
Not necessarily. The Flames are bad. The Blues are bad. The Sabres are the Sabres. The Leafs aren\u2019t quite down in the dregs with those teams, at least not yet.<\/p>\n
So, they\u2019re mediocre?<\/p>\n
Somehow also no. I mean, the .500 record is, but the team hasn\u2019t been. Most nights, they either look like Cup contenders or they\u2019re awful. Lately it\u2019s mostly been the latter. Sometimes it\u2019s even both on the same night<\/a>. So no, calling them mediocre doesn\u2019t totally work.<\/p>\n Right. So this whole post is going to be one of those tedious \u201cnobody actually knows anything\u201d gimmicks because these are the Maple Leafs and they\u2019re ever so complicated and mysterious?<\/p>\n Oh no, not that either. Look, we\u2019re all pretty sure we know where this team is headed, and it\u2019s nowhere good. The confusing part is why it\u2019s happening, and who to blame<\/a>. And maybe most important of all, what, if anything, they could do to fix it. But nobody, up to and including the most diehard of Maple Leafs homers, thinks the first month was anywhere good enough.<\/p>\n The Leafs made a major change in the offseason to their defensive structure. I think it is safe to say that Lalonde\u2019s structure is not working. The penalties and goaltending aren\u2019t helping, but it is a fire drill on a nightly basis and wholly unacceptable.<\/p>\n \u2014 Rachel Kryshak (@RachelKryshak) November 12, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n Got it. So \u2026 they\u2019re bad?<\/p>\n Yes! Except they\u2019re not. They\u2019re still .500, and like a point or two out of the wild-card race with five months left to go. They went into last night\u2019s game with an identical record to the Panthers, and nobody seems to think Florida is in any real trouble. A team\u2019s record isn\u2019t everything, of course, but the way some people talk about this Leafs team, you\u2019d assume they\u2019re in the running for top lottery odds, and they\u2019re nowhere close.<\/p>\n They\u2019re a tough team to get a handle on, is what I\u2019m trying to say, which is why everyone seems so frustrated with them right now.<\/p>\n Well, I\u2019m sure it\u2019s not everyone. Hey, at least they know that Dom\u2019s model will always love them, am I right? <\/p>\n See, here\u2019s the thing about that \u2026<\/p>\n Toronto’s playoff chances fall to 48 percent after last night. First time since 16-17 that I’ve had the Leafs under 50 percent to make the playoffs. pic.twitter.com\/lgoquj9hhk<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 dom \ud83d\udcc8 (@domluszczyszyn) November 10, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n Oh no!<\/p>\n Yeah, it\u2019s not good.<\/p>\n But it\u2019s also not surprising. The underlying numbers that models like this run off of have not been great this year, which Dom explains in more detail in this recent piece<\/a>. The Leafs\u2019 expected goals in all situations has been well below water over the first month, which continues a worrying trend from last year. Only now, they\u2019re not getting bailed out by Vezina-caliber goaltending from Anthony Stolarz, who\u2019s been OK but not great<\/a>, and left last night\u2019s game with an injury. Mix in an anemic power play and a few injuries, and the margin for error has completely collapsed.<\/p>\n OK, but those are the numbers. What\u2019s the eye test say?<\/p>\n If anything, it\u2019s even worse, at least over the last week. It feels like every second shift involves a breakaway or an odd-man rush against. When they do have the puck, they\u2019re either immediately dumping it in or making way too many cute plays, with no in-between. Oh, and they\u2019re squishy soft, with virtually no pushback , even when other teams are running their goalie. It\u2019s a hard watch, as the kids say.<\/p>\n Has anyone made a joke about them already being in postseason mode?<\/p>\n Literally everyone, but thanks.<\/p>\n That Dom piece you linked to placed some blame on Craig Berube. He must be furious at how this is all going.<\/p>\n Oh absolutely. Jonas has more on that angle here<\/a>, where he describes the coach as \u201cready to explode.\u201d And that sounds right, given how he looks behind the bench most nights. He really does seem to be beside himself with this crew.<\/p>\n Well, that\u2019s good though, right? That was half the appeal of bringing Berube in \u2014 that he was a crusty veteran with a Cup ring who wouldn\u2019t baby these guys like Sheldon Keefe always did. He\u2019s probably benching guys left and right!<\/p>\n Uh \u2026<\/p>\n Speaking of accountability, what\u2019s the front office doing about all this?<\/p>\n Well, Brad Treliving has been pretty quiet so far, both in terms of public pronouncements and also as far as making roster moves. The rumor mill says all the usual stuff, about exploring options and kicking tires and planting seeds. But so far, no major changes.<\/p>\n Yeah, that makes sense. You don\u2019t want to disrupt things too much. By the way, what did we eventually end up getting back for Nick Robertson, David K\u00e4mpf and Calle J\u00e4rnkrok once those deals finally happened?<\/p>\n (mumbling) You see, the cap makes trading very complicated, and these things take time, and you can\u2019t just trade your sixth-line center without taking a few months to really \u2026<\/p>\n Never mind, a front office can only do so much. Speaking of which, I\u2019m assuming Nicolas Roy, Dakota Joshua and Matias Maccelli are all producing. Plus Brandon Carlo and Scott Laughton from last year\u2019s trade deadline. Hey, the GM is doing his part, right?<\/p>\n (Deep sigh.)<\/p>\n OK, but hold on, the season is only a month old. Don\u2019t they do this every year? I feel like they always start slow, and everyone panics and then they flip a switch and get it all figured out by December, while the rest of us swear we won\u2019t fall for the same routine next time.<\/p>\n That\u2019s largely true. In the four Octobers from 2021 to 2024, the Leafs lost more games than they won, going a combined 19-15-5. But in those same years, their November record was a combined 38-9-6, which helped them to relatively easy playoff spots each time.<\/p>\n But this year, there are two key areas for concern. The first, like we already said, is that the underlying numbers are worse than we\u2019re used to. And also, October was a while ago \u2014 we\u2019re six games into November, and the turnaround has been less obvious, if it\u2019s happening at all. They won their first three in November, but have now lost their last three straight, and looked awful doing it.<\/p>\n Add it all up, and this looks like a team that overperformed a year ago thanks largely to great goaltending and the power play, and now that those areas have come back to the pack, they\u2019re just a very middling team<\/p>\n Is it safe to assume that Mitch Marner\u2019s departure is a big factor here?<\/p>\n Yes, although we can debate just how much, especially since you don\u2019t want to let everyone else off the hook. But it\u2019s fair to say that they haven\u2019t come close to replacing his offense, certainly not in the aggregate with all those middle-six guys they brought in over the summer. He was a key part of the power play when it was cooking, and they miss him there. And he was a good player in his own zone, where they need all the help they can get this year.<\/p>\n Needless to say, he\u2019s looked great in Vegas so far.<\/p>\n Ah, but he always disappeared in the playoffs.<\/p>\n Luckily, that may not be a problem for this year\u2019s team.<\/p>\n So there\u2019s just no good news at all?<\/p>\n There is, which is part of what makes this all so frustrating. William Nylander is scoring at an Art Ross pace. John Tavares has been fantastic. And Matthew Knies has been a bit uneven, but is producing at well over a point-per-game. With those guys driving the offense, they\u2019ve been near the top of the league in goals for most of the season.<\/p>\n What about Auston Matthews?<\/p>\n He started slow and then got hurt last night<\/a>. But in between, he was good for like three games in a row.<\/p>\n See? That\u2019s positive!<\/p>\n So wait, their best forwards are all scoring at close to unsustainable paces and they still can\u2019t win?<\/p>\n OK, maybe it\u2019s not so positive. You know, for someone who hasn\u2019t paid attention to this team for the last month, you\u2019re kind of bumming us all out.<\/p>\n Leafs currently with 3.8% odds of winning the draft lottery. Note they traded away their 1st round pick for Carlo but it\u2019s protected if they pick top 5.<\/p>\n \u2014 MoneyPuck.com (@MoneyPuckdotcom) November 12, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n Sorry. It\u2019s just that this all sounds very serious.<\/p>\n