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Theresa Shutt, chief investment officer at Harbourfront Wealth Management Theresa Shutt, chief investment officer at Harbourfront Wealth Management <\/p>\nTheresa Shutt, chief investment officer at Harbourfront Wealth Management, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss the outlook on Canadian markets and economy following <\/p>\n
Equity markets are navigating record U.S. shutdown uncertainty as delayed economic data clouds the outlook and investors weigh the odds of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Canada remains closely tied to U.S. movements, amplifying questions about labour-market strength and the timing of monetary easing.<\/p>\n
BNN Bloomberg spoke with Theresa Shutt, chief investment officer at Harbourfront Wealth Management, about the market reaction to the shutdown, the risks of flying blind without key U.S. data and how Canada\u2019s latest budget and infrastructure plans could influence productivity and growth.<\/p>\n
Key TakeawaysThe record U.S. government shutdown has delayed crucial economic data, leaving the Federal Reserve and investors without key indicators on jobs and inflation.Markets still expect a Fed rate cut, with odds near 70 per cent, supporting risk sentiment despite uncertainty around October\u2019s missing data releases.Canada faces added pressure as its markets track U.S. trends, particularly around labour-market signals and the timing of monetary easing. Ottawa\u2019s budget and new fast-tracked infrastructure projects aim to address Canada\u2019s long-standing productivity challenges and expand trade corridors.A weaker U.S. dollar from Fed cuts could support the Canadian dollar, while new investment in energy and mining may bolster Canada\u2019s economic outlook.Theresa Shutt, chief investment officer at Harbourfront Wealth Management Theresa Shutt, chief investment officer at Harbourfront Wealth Management <\/p>\n
Read the full transcript below:<\/p>\n
ROGER: All right, let\u2019s turn to the latest in the markets and the impact of the record U.S. government shutdown on Canada\u2019s markets and economy. We are joined by Theresa Shutt, chief investment officer at Harbourfront Wealth Management. Theresa, thanks very much for joining us.<\/p>\n
THERESA: Thanks for having me. Good morning.<\/p>\n
ROGER: Are you surprised at the market\u2019s response today compared to what I think a lot of people expected? We might have seen it up a little bit \u2014 or did we already make those gains and this is just a bit of a clawback?<\/p>\n
THERESA: Yeah, I think, historically, shutdowns like this don\u2019t impact equity markets as much. I mean, this was obviously a record shutdown \u2014 43 days, breaking a record \u2014 and typically U.S. stocks are unfazed by these over the period. Actually, the S&P 500 hit new records.<\/p>\n
So I think the concern is more about the cloud of uncertainty hanging over the market with respect to the data releases. We expect the data to trickle out next week, but there is some concern that maybe some of October\u2019s points \u2014 non-farm payrolls, CPI prints \u2014 may not only be delayed but not even released. And that leaves the Fed flying blind.<\/p>\n
For Canada, we follow our lead pretty much by what happens in the U.S. markets, so this puts us in a trickier situation, particularly when it comes to the labour market. That\u2019s a key one right now. A lot of the private surveys have shown some softness in the job market, so we want to see if the official data backs that up \u2014 and then, of course, what the Fed will do.<\/p>\n
Even the Federal Reserve is mixed on its next approach. The market is calling, I think, for a 70 per cent chance of a cut. I think that\u2019s also likely, which is obviously good news across the board.<\/p>\n
ROGER: And just going back to those numbers, is there enough confidence in the private data that companies can get by without seeing the federal ones?<\/p>\n
THERESA: I would say probably not. I mean, I think we really need prints from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and hopefully we\u2019ll get that coming out soon. There\u2019s always anecdotal evidence.<\/p>\n
What we\u2019re seeing right now in the U.S. is what people are calling more of a K-shaped economy. You have certain sectors of the industry doing very well and others that are struggling. Obviously, the tariffs have had some impact. Corporations have been absorbing costs, but we do expect that will be passed on.<\/p>\n
So I think we\u2019ll continue to see this bifurcated economy: some weakness in some sectors and strength in others. And the wealth effect is showing itself. Everybody with a retirement fund has exposure to the big-tech sector, and that\u2019s creating confidence, particularly among the upper-middle class and high-net-worth investors, and they\u2019re really supporting the U.S. economy right now.<\/p>\n
So it\u2019s a mixed story, and the data is needed to assess whether we\u2019re looking toward moderate growth or an increased potential for recession. It\u2019s hard to tell \u2014 again, because of that cloud of uncertainty.<\/p>\n
ROGER: And taking that potential for a rate cut \u2014 you said 70 per cent \u2014 moving that to Canada, does that put pressure here? And of course, we\u2019re also seeing an announcement on infrastructure spending and the budget just came out. Where are we standing right now in Canada?<\/p>\n
THERESA: Yeah, so for Canada, the interest rate cuts from the Fed will lead to potential downward pressure on the U.S. dollar. That can help Canada somewhat. But as you mentioned, eyes are very focused on the budget.<\/p>\n