There weren\u2019t many people, inside the NBA or outside of it, believing the arguments Nico Harrison made in February as to why he orchestrated one of the most shocking deals in league history in sending Luka Doncic from the Dallas Mavericks to the Los Angeles Lakers.<\/p>\n
There also weren\u2019t many people believing Harrison should have remained as Mavs general manager as Dallas saw its ugly end to last season carry over into this one, including \u201cFire Nico!\u201d chants ringing out at home during Mavericks free throws in a one possession game Monday night against the Milwaukee Bucks.<\/p>\n
So, in that spirit, we decided to ask league executives and scouts whether they\u2019re believing in some of the most impactful early-season trends across the NBA, beginning with the crater that is the Mavericks franchise before moving on to hot starts for the Lakers and San Antonio Spurs, the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder\u2019s chances at 70 wins and what\u2019s next for the suddenly deep Rookie of the Year race.<\/p>\n
Jump to intel:<\/p>\n
Will sliding Mavs have to trade AD?Will Magic figure out their offense?Will Lakers and Spurs stay this hot?Will Clippers keep looking this old?Will Thunder capture 70-plus wins?Will the ROY race stay wide open?<\/p>\n
Do you believe Dallas will remain this bad?<\/p>\n
Tim Bontemps: In conversations with sources around the NBA this week in the wake of Harrison\u2019s firing, there is a near universal belief that the Mavericks cannot remain as bad as their 3-9 record and minus-6.5 point differential suggests. Does that mean league insiders are projecting a playoff run?<\/p>\n
No.<\/p>\n
\u201cI still think they could be good if everyone is healthy,\u201d a Western Conference executive told ESPN. \u201cBut you can\u2019t bet on that.\u201d<\/p>\n
Even if healthy — Dallas is far from it now, with Anthony Davis playing just five games and Kyrie Irving sidelined after an ACL tear in March — the flaws within the roster remain. D\u2019Angelo Russell, the one proven point guard on the active roster, has been completely marginalized by coach Jason Kidd in favor of Brandon Williams, who is on a partially guaranteed minimum deal.<\/p>\n
And while Williams has shown flashes — he had 17 points and nine assists in Wednesday\u2019s loss to the Phoenix Suns — Dallas\u2019 lack of ballhandling and the imbalances across its roster are impossible to ignore.<\/p>\n
\u201cUntil they have a feasible point guard, they\u2019re going to flounder,\u201d a West scout said.<\/p>\n
With the Mavericks being the biggest topic around the league this week, the discussion quickly shifted to the question looming over whomever is tapped to replace Harrison as the lead executive: What does the future hold for Davis and Irving less than three months until the February trade deadline?<\/p>\n
The belief, from sources I spoke to, is that the Mavs moving on from at least Davis, if not both stars, was the optimal strategy. Those moves would help maximize the 2026 first-round pick in a loaded 2026 draft class — the only selection Dallas controls the rest of this decade — to reposition the franchise around 2025 No. 1 pick Cooper Flagg.<\/p>\n
\u201cAbsolutely,\u201d an Eastern Conference executive said when asked whether trading the two veteran stars was the right path for Dallas.<\/p>\n
Brian Windhorst: Honestly, discussions with league executives this week surprisingly haven\u2019t centered around whether the Mavericks should trade Davis — there seems to be a consensus that it is probably the correct strategy despite being another painful development to sell to the fan base. A team built around Irving and Davis has teeth, and it\u2019s not unreasonable to want to at least see the full roster in action; with Irving\u2019s rehab going well, it should be on the table.<\/p>\n
But no, the discussions were whether the Mavs could get appropriate value when trading Davis.<\/p>\n
\u201cI just looked it up so I could say this to my owner if he asks me about it, AD is turning 33 in March and he\u2019s going to be in position next summer where he\u2019ll probably want a contract extension that would cost $70 million per year when he\u2019d be 37,\u201d one general manager said.<\/p>\n
\u201cHe\u2019s a great player, full stop. But when you consider a player at his age with his injury history, you\u2019d also be trading for the stress of that extension. That plays into it.\u201d<\/p>\n
Referencing Davis\u2019 injury history is tiresome. When he\u2019s healthy, he\u2019s a playoff series-changing player at both ends of the court. The Lakers\u2019 acquisition of him in 2019 ahead of their title run in the bubble changed the balance of power in the league. If the Mavericks come to the conclusion they need to readjust their timeline around Flagg — for now that is an if despite what the strategy wings of opposing front offices might forecast — there is the potential he could change the balance of power once again.<\/p>\n
But the takeaway from conversations this week is whether Dallas will be able to get the kind of offers that make trading him a no-brainer.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere\u2019s one thing I can say with absolute certainty,\u201d a veteran executive said. \u201cIf Dallas decides to trade AD, they won\u2019t get the same return the Lakers got for him.\u201d<\/p>\n
No kidding.<\/p>\n
Bontemps: One underappreciated aspect of moving on from Davis and Irving, however, is to get Dallas out of the luxury tax.<\/p>\n
The Mavericks owe about $32 million in taxes with their current roster, according to ESPN\u2019s Bobby Marks, and are about $16 million over the luxury tax threshold this season. For a team headed nowhere, it\u2019s extremely hard to justify those expenses.<\/p>\n
Moving on from their two stars by the deadline would allow Dallas to potentially duck the tax, reset its timeline and acquire future picks and players to restock an older roster with youth alongside their rookie sensation.<\/p>\n
Do you believe Orlando has figured out its offense?<\/p>\n
Windhorst: The Magic have won five of the past seven games with their offense on a heater, ranking in the top 10 in the league in that window. (Although, leading scorer Paolo Banchero\u2019s day-to-day designation after suffering a groin injury could cause a correction if the star is forced to miss extended time.)<\/p>\n
Orlando ranked dead last in pace last season, but assistant coach Joe Prunty, hired in a front office-led staff shake-up in the offseason, was brought in to rev up those numbers. The Magic now rank in the middle of the pack in pace, and scouts report there\u2019s significantly fewer plays being called by coach Jamahl Mosley, encouraging a quicker read-and-react system.<\/p>\n
Having said that…<\/p>\n
\u201cSometimes when they struggle on offense they hang their heads and slow down,\u201d an East coach said. \u201cI\u2019ve seen it before — it\u2019s a product of a team that doesn\u2019t believe in itself offensively yet.\u201d<\/p>\n
Bontemps: After beating the New York Knicks on Wednesday night at Madison Square Garden, the Magic are back to .500 on the season and up to 18th in the NBA in offense. That ranking doesn\u2019t seem all that great, but consider this absolutely unbelievable stat:<\/p>\n
The last time the Magic didn\u2019t finish the season as a bottom-10 offense was all the way back in 2011-12, when Dwight Howard was still playing with the Magic and Stan Van Gundy was coaching.<\/p>\n
That infamous record was supposed to be left in the dust this season after Orlando landed Desmond Bane from the Memphis Grizzlies in a blockbuster trade this offseason. Instead, the Magic still look stuck in the mud at that end of the floor.<\/p>\n
\u201cThey shouldn\u2019t be this bad,\u201d a West scout said. \u201cBut I don\u2019t see any reason to think otherwise.\u201d<\/p>\n
The ongoing offensive struggles have put a spotlight on Mosley, who has repeatedly shown an ability to craft an elite defensive unit with this squad, and Banchero, who continues to put up impressive individual numbers that have yet to translate into overall team offensive success.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s got to get a little better, but the pieces aren\u2019t changing,\u201d a West executive said. \u201cBane will settle in eventually. But you still have a ball-dominant, iso star in Paolo that doesn\u2019t scream ball movement, player movement and getting open shots.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt hasn\u2019t been pretty at all.\u201d<\/p>\n
Do you believe the Spurs and Lakers are top-four seeds in the West?<\/p>\n
Bontemps: Reactions to this question were all over the map, but not because of the individual merits of the two West contenders. San Antonio and Los Angeles were praised for their early season play, but while plenty of league insiders bought into the idea of the Spurs and Lakers finishing in the West\u2019s top four, plenty of doubts centered around the elite competition standing in their way.<\/p>\n
\u201cOklahoma City, Houston and Denver are really good,\u201d a West executive said. \u201cYou only have one spot left, and you haven\u2019t accounted for either of them, or Minnesota.\u201d<\/p>\n
Another West executive rattled off those six teams and added that, while they weren\u2019t convinced the Lakers or Spurs will remain in the top four, it was clear that both had surpassed the LA Clippers and Golden State Warriors in the race to stay above the play-in line (top six) out West.<\/p>\n
The general belief was that of the two teams, the Lakers have more staying power. The eventual return of LeBron James will only add to their chances along with the incandescent play by Doncic and Austin Reaves.<\/p>\n
Opinions were mixed when it came to the Spurs\u2019 outlook.<\/p>\n
\u201cI\u2019ll take the Spurs, because Wemby is just that good,\u201d an East scout said.<\/p>\n
\u201cI\u2019d bet on the Spurs falling off,\u201d a West scout said. \u201cI\u2019d be shocked if Victor plays 82 games. His body just isn\u2019t built for that.\u201d<\/p>\n
Windhorst: James nearing a return is a pretty big factor. He was second-team All-NBA last season, after all, and he has begun practicing with the Lakers\u2019 G League team. The ceiling absolutely can be raised … maybe.<\/p>\n
\u201cDon\u2019t ask me about the Lakers until I can see LeBron play and see him move and how he looks,\u201d one East executive said. \u201cHe isn\u2019t just dealing with the sciatica, he hurt his knee at the end of last season, and it surely affected his training routine. He\u2019s never started a season coming off injuries like this before.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cThey are bottom 10 in defensive rating and bottom 10 in net rating as I\u2019m looking at it right now and they make the third-fewest 3s in the NBA,\u201d one scout said. \u201cThose are not good fundamentals.\u201d<\/p>\n
This, however, can be said: A team with Doncic, James and Reaves can probably beat any team on any night. It is dangerous. But can it beat anyone four times in a playoff series? Let\u2019s wait and see, but there is reason for optimism.<\/p>\n
Unless you\u2019re comparing them to OKC.<\/p>\n
Do you believe the Clippers will continue looking this old?<\/p>\n
Windhorst: The Clippers picked the wrong time to have the oldest roster in NBA history. The league is playing super fast in the early going. Last year, 12 teams averaged 100-plus possessions. Now, that number is 25, perhaps an outgrowth of copycats to the speedy Indiana Pacers after last season\u2019s unexpected run to the Finals.<\/p>\n
The NBA is trending toward speed, not just in transition but within half-court sets, too. The Clippers, dead last in pace and fast-break points, simply can\u2019t keep up.<\/p>\n
\u201cThey move so slowly, they can\u2019t recover when they turn the ball over or give up a quick transition,\u201d one advance scout said.<\/p>\n
The Clippers have been a shell of last season\u2019s defensive juggernaut that ranked in the top three in the league. They are also dealing with the fallout of trading guard Norman Powell to the Miami Heat, a void left on the floor and in the locker room, after choosing to not offer him a lucrative contract extension.<\/p>\n
In the wake of Bradley Beal\u2019s season-ending hip injury and the indicators of their collective age being used against them, coach Tyronn Lue announced this week that he would focus on playing the handful of younger role players such as Cam Christie, Kobe Sanders and Jordan Miller.<\/p>\n
The subtext is this: The Clippers are not getting much production from Brook Lopez, Nicolas Batum or Bogdan Bogdanovic and Chris Paul is totally out of the rotation for the first time in his career. Those four players\u2019 average age is 37 — it is showing, and all at the same time.<\/p>\n
\u201cTeams don\u2019t start playing a bunch of young players all at once and think it\u2019s going to lead them to winning,\u201d a rival executive said. \u201cBut in this case maybe it will help them.\u201d<\/p>\n
Bontemps: Only one question (more on that below) was met with a more universal and immediate reaction: Less than a month into the season, the outlook is dim for the Clippers.<\/p>\n
\u201cThey are cooked,\u201d an East executive said of L.A.\u2019s chances this season after a 3-8 start.<\/p>\n
Losing Beal for the season didn\u2019t help matters, but that is far from the only problem plaguing the franchise.<\/p>\n
\u201cUnless you can show me where the fountain of youth is, I don\u2019t see [a path back],\u201d a West scout said. \u201cKawhi [Leonard] has looked good when he\u2019s played. But you can\u2019t rely on him.\u201d<\/p>\n
Windhorst: And the Leonard situation seems to be worsening. Team president Lawrence Frank revealed on Wednesday that Leonard hasn\u2019t just been out with an ankle sprain but also a \u201csignificant\u201d foot sprain and inflammation.<\/p>\n
A lot of the excitement around the Clippers coming into the season was an outgrowth of how healthy Leonard looked at the end of last season and in training camp. Unfortunately, Leonard is already dealing with an extended absence, and the Clippers are sinking without him. The Clippers now leave on a seven-game road trip. (We remind readers that the Thunder own the Clippers\u2019 first-round pick in June\u2019s draft.)<\/p>\n
Do you believe the Thunder will win 70-plus games?<\/p>\n
Bontemps: The only question that received a more definitive answer than the Clippers\u2019 outlook? The Thunder\u2019s. It comes on the heels of OKC demolishing the Warriors and Lakers on back-to-back nights this week while missing, among others, Jalen Williams and Luguentz Dort.<\/p>\n
\u201cThey might win 80 [games],\u201d a West scout said.<\/p>\n
Perhaps that goal is a bit too lofty, but can the Thunder, after winning 68 last season en route to the title, become the third team in NBA history to reach 70 wins?<\/p>\n
\u201cThe only question,\u201d an East scout said, \u201cis if they want to.\u201d<\/p>\n
The former point sparked the biggest conversation among league insiders. There\u2019s little doubt the Thunder, who are outscoring teams by what would be a record-shattering point differential of plus-15.6 points per 100 possessions, are capable of joining the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls (72 wins) and 2015-16 Warriors (73).<\/p>\n
What\u2019s unclear is whether they\u2019ll truly pursue that mark if it comes within striking distance late in the season.<\/p>\n
Windhorst: The Thunder are 80-15 since the start of the 2024-25 season. That\u2019s an 84% winning percentage. To win 70 games in the NBA, you need to win 85% of your games. Beyond this little math lesson, the point is this: The Thunder have been playing like a 70-win team for a long time.<\/p>\n
\u201cThey have the depth that they could win 70 games even if they don\u2019t want to,\u201d an East scout said. \u201cTheir second stringers would start in most places. Their third stringers would be in the rotation most places.\u201d<\/p>\n
Wednesday night after slaying the Lakers, All-NBA wing Jalen Williams poked his head into ESPN\u2019s Malika Andrews\u2019 walk-off interview with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and jokingly reminded everyone that he was still in the NBA since he hasn\u2019t yet been on the court this season.<\/p>\n
It was a funny moment but to the rest of the league, it was no laughing matter.<\/p>\n
Do you believe the Rookie of the Year race will remain wide open?<\/p>\n
Bontemps: Flagg — the massive preseason favorite to win the award — is off to what is actually a strong start to his rookie campaign amid the misery surrounding the Mavericks. He\u2019s in the top five among all rookies in scoring, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks, all while not even turning 19 for another few weeks and playing out of position at point guard on a clunky roster.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s why one East executive shot down the notion this race is wide open. \u201cCooper will win it going away. This class is great, but Cooper will show who he is as the season goes on,\u201d they said.<\/p>\n
That, however, was the minority opinion when talking with league insiders. The wider belief is while the faith in Flagg hasn\u2019t diminished, some of the superlative performances from rookies this year — including the three players taken after him, Dylan Harper, VJ Edgecombe and Kon Knueppel, plus Cedric Coward at No. 11 — will make it an interesting race to follow.<\/p>\n
\u201cCooper has been good, but both the team and he have struggled more than expected,\u201d a West scout said. \u201cAnd, on top of that, it\u2019s a loaded class.\u201d<\/p>\n
Windhorst: Knueppel has definitely entered the race after a very strong start. He\u2019s shooting almost 40% on 3s and has immediately shown he\u2019s a cornerstone in Charlotte even as the Hornets sink amid another ankle injury for star guard LaMelo Ball.<\/p>\n
But historically, players who are in Flagg\u2019s situation — a No. 1 pick at the centerpiece of his team — have a great chance to win. Most top awards are based on team performance, but that isn\u2019t always the case with Rookie of the Year. There is an expectation that the best rookies are often on bad teams, even if the Dallas situation was not seen that way to start the season.<\/p>\n
The other contenders mostly still play a role, which is natural as a rookie, even if they are excelling in their role such as Coward has in Memphis. Flagg will have his hands on the ball on almost every possession, and he\u2019s going to rack up defensive numbers and highlights.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf Flagg stays healthy, he should win it because he\u2019s the best player with the biggest responsibilities,\u201d a West executive said.<\/p>\n
\u201cBut you media guys are known to screw things up, so I won\u2019t guarantee it.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"There weren\u2019t many people, inside the NBA or outside of it, believing the arguments Nico Harrison made in…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":282648,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[434],"tags":[49,48,117726,114816,459,123459,82],"class_list":["post-282647","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nba","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-dallas-mavericks-sports-basketball-team-team-statscom-6","tag-los-angeles-lakers-sports-basketball-team-team-statscom-13","tag-nba","tag-san-antonio-spurs-sports-basketball-team-team-statscom-24","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/282647","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=282647"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/282647\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/282648"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=282647"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=282647"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=282647"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}