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Colin Graham, head of multi asset strategies and co-head of sustainable multi asset solutions at Robeco Colin Graham, head of multi asset strategies and co-head of sustainable multi asset solutions at Robeco <\/p>\nColin Graham, head of multi asset strategies and co-head of sustainable multi asset solutions at Robeco, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss the impact of AI investm <\/p>\n
Markets extended their slide this week as investors awaited key earnings from Nvidia and the delayed U.S. jobs report. Uneven growth tied to the artificial-intelligence boom and concerns over economic overheating added to uncertainty for traders.<\/p>\n
BNN Bloomberg spoke with Colin Graham, head of multi-asset strategies and co-head of sustainable multi-asset solutions at Robeco, who says AI-driven investment has been essential in preventing the U.S. economy from slipping into recession this year.<\/p>\n
Key TakeawaysAI investment has been crucial in preventing the U.S. economy from falling into recession, underpinning earnings in the largest tech companies.The economy\u2019s two-speed structure continues, with megacap tech driving growth while other sectors lag.Fiscal stimulus and potential tax cuts risk overheating the U.S. economy, tightening pressure on inflation and bond markets.Market reaction to Nvidia\u2019s earnings is seen as a key signal for U.S. equity direction, interest rates and the U.S. dollar.Vietnam remains a standout emerging-market opportunity, supported by manufacturing growth and rising domestic demand despite trade-policy uncertainties.Colin Graham, head of multi asset strategies and co-head of sustainable multi asset solutions at Robeco Colin Graham, head of multi asset strategies and co-head of sustainable multi asset solutions at Robeco <\/p>\n
Read the full transcript below:<\/p>\n
ANDREW: The market selloff is continuing this week as investors anxiously await Nvidia\u2019s earnings, and of course we have a delayed U.S. jobs report coming out later this week. So AI seems to be something of a cloud over the markets right now. This is interesting, though \u2014 our guest says the U.S. economy would be in a recession this year if it wasn\u2019t for all that massive AI investment. We\u2019re joined by Colin Graham, head of multi-asset strategies and co-head of sustainable multi-asset solutions at Robeco. Thank you very much indeed for joining us, Colin.<\/p>\n
COLIN: Good morning. How are you doing?<\/p>\n
ANDREW: Very good. That\u2019s an interesting thesis \u2014 that AI investment has been so big it\u2019s kept U.S. GDP positive?<\/p>\n
COLIN: Yeah, I think this is the story over the last couple of years, where you\u2019ve really seen this two-speed economy. If you look at the Nasdaq, it has done very well. If you look at the Russell 2000, it\u2019s done okay, but not as well as the rest of the U.S. market. So you are seeing this two-speed economy. Some economists call it the K-shaped economy. But yeah, we see this bifurcation in the economy, where earnings would have been in recession last year if it hadn\u2019t been for the Magnificent Seven.<\/p>\n
ANDREW: I mean, is that okay \u2014 to have just one pillar of the economy doing well while the rest is lacklustre or even declining?<\/p>\n
COLIN: It depends where you sit in the economy. If you\u2019re an investor, you\u2019re investing in the index \u2014 you\u2019re not necessarily investing in the economy. From our perspective, these companies have delivered their earnings and have supported the valuation multiples they\u2019ve been on. At the moment, we see this as a natural pullback in a bull market. However, once we see the Nvidia earnings tomorrow \u2014 and it\u2019s more about the reaction to the numbers \u2014 that will give us more insight into the direction of the equity markets. But I think it will also give us an idea of the direction for U.S. interest rates and indeed the U.S. dollar.<\/p>\n
ANDREW: Nvidia presumably will come out and beat the drum for AI \u2014 rah, rah \u2014 say the massive spending will go on. Do you think investors are becoming a bit sceptical, though?<\/p>\n
COLIN: I think the market is telling you that. And you know, we can\u2019t get a good sense of the volumes going through here, because where are investors \u2014 where is retail money likely to come in and say, \u201cOh yes, is it 180, is it 175, is 170 the level I\u2019m willing to repurchase my Nvidia stock?\u201d We don\u2019t know. We can see the market gap down, as we saw in April, without anything necessarily going through the market. From that perspective, it\u2019s very important to understand the market reaction to Nvidia and whether they think that.<\/p>\n
On the other side, we\u2019ve seen increased issuance in the debt market for these companies that don\u2019t necessarily need to come because they have big cash holdings on their balance sheets. So again, this is another area we\u2019re watching \u2014 why are they trying to get their weighted average cost of capital down? Is this some way of improving the balance sheet, making it more efficient? When we look at the underlying data, the promises around data centres and processing power \u2014 they haven\u2019t given enough capex to deliver that. So we know there has to be some other flow coming back into the AI ecosystem, rather than just the announcements we\u2019ve seen.<\/p>\n
ANDREW: Let me ask you about British policy. Britain, like so many other countries, wants to be an AI superpower. Is it a national worry that this is going to be centred in China and America, and that Britain \u2014 even with its computing tradition \u2014 will be an also-ran?<\/p>\n
COLIN: I think it\u2019s all to do with the capital markets and the policies put in place. We can see this bipolar world \u2014 and if you look back at our five-year expected returns, our flagship publication last year and the year before, we talked about this bipolar world between the two spheres of influence, China and the U.S. The AI and technology side is definitely one of those bellwethers around how the two ecosystems are trying to diverge from the current model.<\/p>\n
From that perspective, China and the U.S. are going to lead, but it also provides opportunities for other countries to get involved, because you can trade with both sides. So yes, it\u2019s difficult for countries caught in between, but there is a path to prosperity.<\/p>\n
ANDREW: Go down the middle \u2014 that\u2019s interesting. Now, back to the U.S. economy. You reckon it\u2019s running hot enough that if there\u2019s stimulus from Trump\u2019s government via the Big Beautiful Bill, it risks overheating activity \u2014 and of course that tends to bring interest rates back up?<\/p>\n
COLIN: Yes, and I think this is where you\u2019re seeing the major trade that all fixed-income managers have on at the moment \u2014 the curve steepener. This is where you expect long yields to go up and short yields to come down. That\u2019s effectively where we are. And we think that if that happens, and interest rates come down with the tax cuts promised for next year, then this is going to really put a high-pressure economy in place in the U.S.<\/p>\n
Usually when you see this, there are mechanisms that release the pressure. In previous cycles in the \u201990s and 2000s, the U.S. imported deflation from China. But with current trade concerns, that channel won\u2019t necessarily help relieve inflationary pressure. You\u2019re also seeing a reduction in immigration, so wages are still growing at four per cent according to the Atlanta Fed \u2014 admittedly a couple of months old \u2014 but that\u2019s still above inflation at three. From that perspective, the consumer looks okay if you have a job, which is why everyone is focused on the jobs numbers. It gives room for the Fed to cut further.<\/p>\n
So yes, stimulus will go into the economy without the usual outlets to keep inflation lower. Our view \u2014 and we\u2019ve just launched our one-year outlook \u2014 is that you are going to see inflationary pressures come back in the U.S.<\/p>\n
ANDREW: You\u2019re watching the Vietnamese economy. Vietnam has been getting spillover investment from China because it\u2019s a lower-cost base. What draws you to Vietnam broadly?<\/p>\n
COLIN: Vietnam, for our emerging-markets equity and bond investors, is a very good story. We\u2019re in multi-asset global, top-down macro, so we leave that to them. But we look at it and think there is a really good story here \u2014 the continuation of outsourcing to lower-cost areas.<\/p>\n
I don\u2019t know if you\u2019ve been to Vietnam, but I\u2019ve been recently \u2014 and it\u2019s night and day compared to where it was 20 years ago. So yes, there is growth and manufacturing, but there\u2019s always this overhang: does U.S. trade policy change and say, \u201cWell, actually, you\u2019re part of the China ecosystem for exporting goods, therefore tariffs should also apply to Vietnam at a higher level?\u201d<\/p>\n
ANDREW: A big population \u2014 north of 100 million. And we just showed a VanEck Vietnam ETF. I know you\u2019re not talking about that, but it illustrates how money has been going into Vietnamese stocks. Thank you very much, Colin \u2014 that was great.<\/p>\n
COLIN: Thank you very much, Andy.<\/p>\n
ANDREW: Colin Graham, head of multi-asset strategies and co-head of sustainable multi-asset solutions at Robeco.<\/p>\n
—<\/p>\n
This BNN Bloomberg summary and transcript of the Nov. 18, 2025 interview with Colin Graham are published with the assistance of AI. Original research, interview questions and added context was created by BNN Bloomberg journalists. An editor also reviewed this material before it was published to ensure its accuracy and adherence with BNN Bloomberg editorial policies and standards.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Colin Graham, head of multi asset strategies and co-head of sustainable multi asset solutions at Robeco, joins BNN…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":291474,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[45,49,48,46],"class_list":{"0":"post-291473","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-ca","10":"tag-canada","11":"tag-economy"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/291473","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=291473"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/291473\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/291474"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=291473"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=291473"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=291473"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}