A man looks over at a foggy Detroit skyline from Windsor, Ont., a city that has seen its jobless rate soar amid Donald Trump’s trade war. (Credit: DAN JANISSE\/Postmedia)
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Canada\u2019s unemployment rate<\/a> will continue to climb as Donald Trump\u2019s tariff war<\/a> batters sectors and regions reliant on trade, says RBC.<\/p>\n Uncertainty about tariffs has curbed hiring across the economy, but actual job losses have been mainly concentrated in trade-related sectors and the provinces that house them, said Royal Bank of Canada<\/a> economist Rachel Battaglia in a report out yesterday.\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n Manufacturing, resource industries, transportation and warehousing have suffered the biggest employment declines. Trade uncertainty is driving much of this, but volatile commodity prices and a slowdown in home construction are also contributing, she said.<\/p>\n Ontario, a centre for Canada\u2019s manufacturing workforce, has accounted for 60 per cent of the climb in the unemployment rate over the past 12 months, said RBC.<\/p>\n The weakness has been especially focused in southwestern Ontario, where most of the manufacturing takes place. Four of the five highest unemployment rates in the country are in this region, with Windsor leading the way at 11.2 per cent.<\/p>\n The auto city is followed by Peterborough at 10 per cent, Oshawa at 9.3 and Toronto at 8.7. Canadian manufacturing has shed nearly 45,000 jobs since January \u2014 the largest employment decline of any sector\u00a0 \u2014 and these regions make up almost a quarter of that workforce, said Battaglia.<\/p>\n A report by the Financial Accountability Office of Ontario<\/a> this spring predicted that U.S. tariffs would result in 68,100 fewer jobs in the province this year and 119,200 fewer in 2026. The trade war is expected to raise Ontario\u2019s unemployment rate by over a percentage point to average 7.7 per cent over the next four years.<\/p>\n Windsor is expected to take the biggest hit, followed by Guelph, Brantford, Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo and London as these cities have more export-focused manufacturing than other centres in the province, the report said.<\/p>\n Quebec, home to 30 per cent of Canada\u2019s manufacturing workforce, and British Columbia have also added to the rise in the unemployment rate<\/a>, but Atlantic Canada has shown \u201cremarkable resilience,\u201d said Battaglia.<\/p>\n A region traditionally known for higher unemployment, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick\u2019s jobless rates fell below the national average in the second quarter.<\/p>\n Other evidence of the trade war\u2019s impact shows up in the demographics of labour market weakness.<\/p>\n Workers aged 45 and older accounted for almost 40 per cent of the unemployment rate gains over the past year, said RBC.<\/p>\n The Canadian-born workforce are also facing more challenges than newcomers, and are driving about 60 per cent of the unemployment rate increase.<\/p>\n Story Continues <\/p>\n These trends mark a shift from recent years, when new entrants to the job market were having the hardest time finding employment, and Battaglia said this too is likely related to the trade war.<\/p>\n \u201cGoods-producing sectors employ a disproportionately high share of late career-aged workers, making them particularly vulnerable to current economic headwinds,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n \u00a0Sign up here<\/a> to get Posthaste delivered straight to your inbox.<\/p>\n Canadians still have their elbows up, according to an Angus Reid Institute poll on how trade negotiations with the United States should be handled.<\/p>\n Three in five Canadians said the country should take a \u201chard approach\u201d in trade talks, while just 37 per cent prefer the \u201csoft\u201d approach, as today\u2019s chart shows.<\/p>\n More Canadians than not were willing to dump the digital services tax, saying the duty, that was axed after talks stalled, was a non-starter for a deal.<\/p>\n But they have stronger feelings about supply management, with half of Canadians saying Mark Carney\u2019s team should stand firm on this one, even if it means retaliation. Thirty-five per cent would put it on the table as a last resort and just 15 per cent would offer to end quotas and price controls.<\/p>\n Today\u2019s Data: Canada international securities transactions, United States retail sales, NAHB housing market index<\/p>\n Earnings: Netflix Inc., PepsiCo Inc., General Electric Co., Choice Properties Real Estate, U.S. Bancorp, Abbott Laboratories, Marsh & McLennan Cos Inc.<\/p>\n At 66, Douglas is getting mixed messages from advisers. His financial adviser wants him to leave the money he has in his registered accounts to grow while his accountant says it is time to start drawing down those funds to minimize tax. Family Finance has some suggestions that would allow Douglas to withdraw an extra $4,500 a year and save on taxes, but he has to wait two years. Find out more<\/a><\/p>\n Recently, we published a feature on the death of the summer job<\/a> as student unemployment reaches crisis levels. We want to hear directly from Canadians aged 15-24 about their summer job search.<\/p>\n Send us your story, in 50-100 words, and we\u2019ll publish the best submissions in an upcoming edition of the Financial Post.<\/p>\n You can submit your story by email to fp_economy@postmedia.com<\/a> under the subject heading \u201cSummer job stories.\u201d Please include your name, your age, the city and province where you reside, and a phone number to reach you.<\/p>\n Are you worried about having enough for retirement? Do you need to adjust your portfolio? Are you starting out or making a change and wondering how to build wealth? Are you trying to make ends meet? Drop us a line at\u00a0wealth@postmedia.com<\/a>\u00a0with your contact info and the gist of your problem and we\u2019ll find some experts to help you out while writing a Family Finance story about it (we\u2019ll keep your name out of it, of course).<\/p>\n Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister\u2019s Financial Post column <\/a>can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won\u2019t want to miss. Plus check his mortgage rate page<\/a> for Canada\u2019s lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily.<\/p>\n Visit the Financial Post\u2019s YouTube channel<\/a> for interviews with Canada\u2019s leading experts in business, economics, housing, the energy sector and more.<\/p>\n Today\u2019s Posthaste was written by Pamela Heaven<\/a> with additional reporting from Financial Post staff, The Canadian Press and Bloomberg.<\/p>\n Have a story idea, pitch, embargoed report, or a suggestion for this newsletter? Email us at\u00a0posthaste@postmedia.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n Bookmark our website and support our journalism: Don\u2019t miss the business news you need to know \u2014 add\u00a0financialpost.com<\/a>\u00a0to your bookmarks and sign up for our newsletters here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"A man looks over at a foggy Detroit skyline from Windsor, Ont., a city that has seen its…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":2944,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[3918,3919,45,49,48,1376,46,1688,3917,3916,1689,2442],"class_list":["post-2943","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-atlantic-canada","tag-battaglia","tag-business","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-donald-trump","tag-economy","tag-manufacturing","tag-rachel-battaglia","tag-royal-bank-of-canada","tag-trade-war","tag-unemployment-rate"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2943","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2943"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2943\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2944"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2943"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2943"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2943"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}} RBC <\/p>\n
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