Tonight is the night to expect outlier results in the NBA Cup. <\/p>\n
All but four teams have played two tournament games. <\/p>\n
Point differential is now officially in the minds of those with intentions of making it to Vegas. <\/p>\n
While some teams, like Toronto, are nearly a lock to win their group regardless of point differential, others need to start padding their stats in the event of a tiebreaker. <\/p>\n
As a refresher, here are the sequential tiebreaker rules: <\/p>\n
Head-to-head record in Group PlayPoint differential in Group PlayTotal points scored in Group PlayRecord from the 2024-25 NBA regular seasonRandom draw<\/p>\n
If two teams are tied for the group lead at 3-1, their head-to-head record will dictate the group winner. <\/p>\n
Should a group have three 3-1 teams or five teams that finish 2-2, this is where point differential gets involved. <\/p>\n
During the first year of the NBA Cup, East Group C had three teams finish 3-1. <\/p>\n
In Boston\u2019s final game, they knew exactly what score was needed to advance and subsequently played their starters to the final whistle even though it was a 27-point blowout. <\/p>\n
In addition to the group winners, a fourth wildcard team advances to the knockout stage. <\/p>\n
Of the remaining non-winners, whoever has the highest point differential advances.<\/p>\n
This is why tonight\u2019s slate starts to get interesting.<\/p>\n
I\u2019ll walk through two scenarios to watch for where I see betting opportunities related to the NBA Cup. <\/p>\n
East: Group A \u2013 Cleveland <\/p>\n
Toronto is currently priced at -2000 on FanDuel to win this group after going 2-0. <\/p>\n
Absolutely \u2018unbettable\u2019, but with good reason.<\/p>\n
The Raptors defeated both Cleveland and Atlanta to open the tourney; the two favourites to win the group. <\/p>\n
They now have the 1-13 Wizards and 2-13 Pacers remaining. <\/p>\n
Even if Toronto loses one of those two games, they\u2019d still own a 3-1 record. <\/p>\n
Cleveland or Atlanta could win outright, but both teams would still have one loss. <\/p>\n
Because both their losses are to Toronto, the Raptors would win the tiebreaker due to head-to-head record.<\/p>\n
This is where the spotlight turns to the Cavaliers. <\/p>\n
Though their chances of winning the group are all but gone (+3000), they are in great position to secure the East wildcard spot. <\/p>\n
Even with their loss to Toronto, Cleveland already has a +22 point differential, which is best amongst non-group leaders.<\/p>\n
They are 14-point favourites versus a wounded Pacers team tonight and have one final matchup versus Atlanta, which they\u2019d need to win for any shot at advancing.<\/p>\n
If the Cavs have any care for this tournament, they should be trying to win tonight\u2019s game by 50. <\/p>\n
Too many teams in the other two groups have a chance to pad their stats. <\/p>\n
Cleveland needs a massive cushion to have any shot of sneaking in as a wildcard.<\/p>\n
Tonight is the game to go for an alternative spread above the -14 line.<\/p>\n
West: Group A – Minnesota<\/p>\n
This group is fascinating. <\/p>\n
Oklahoma City and Minnesota own two of the four shortest lines to advance to the knockout stage (-2500 and -240) even though they\u2019ve only played one and two games each.<\/p>\n
The Thunder are getting tons of respect from FanDuel after blowing out Sacramento by 31 points in their opening NBA Cup game.<\/p>\n
Their remaining opponents are Utah, Minnesota and Phoenix. <\/p>\n
Even if OKC loses to the Timberwolves and subsequently the group, FanDuel\u2019s traders are anticipating big victories in their other two games which likely earns them the wildcard.<\/p>\n
So, where\u2019s the opportunity tonight? <\/p>\n
Minnesota would be wise to pad their stats and get to 3-0 against Phoenix tonight.<\/p>\n
They\u2019re currently 4.5-point favourites.<\/p>\n
Here\u2019s the caveat as always with the NBA Cup \u2013 how much do these teams actually care? <\/p>\n
An older, injury-riddled team like the Clippers would be one I wouldn\u2019t count on to chase point differential.<\/p>\n
Typically, I\u2019m hunting younger teams who need the NBA Cup to build up confidence and credibility. <\/p>\n
The Timberwolves are young, but they\u2019ve also made two straight Western Conference Finals. <\/p>\n
Hence, it\u2019s not a slam dunk that they care. <\/p>\n
Prior to the opening slate of the tournament, Anthony Edwards was asked about his thoughts on the NBA Cup. <\/p>\n
\u201cWe didn\u2019t really understand the rules and stuff but\u2026 I still don\u2019t understand the rules, I really don\u2019t care but I think juts winning the games mean more than anything.\u201d<\/p>\n
After that pre-game quote, they went on to win by 40. <\/p>\n
The next game, they blew out Sacramento by 14 points with Edwards playing all the way to the final minute. <\/p>\n
I trust the Minnesota coaching staff to get their team on the same page. <\/p>\n
Taking Ant-Man\u2019s quote into consideration, I\u2019d bet on tonight\u2019s matchup two ways. <\/p>\n
I\u2019d take a large position on Minnesota moneyline (-186) and then pepper in an alternative spread assuming they\u2019ll try to secure their advancement with a sizeable point differential.<\/p>\n
Of the four wildcard winners over the first two NBA Cups, their point differentials ranged from 34 to 46.<\/p>\n
The Timberwolves should build up a buffer in the event the Thunder get them for a big win in their next NBA Cup game.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Tonight is the night to expect outlier results in the NBA Cup. All but four teams have played…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":298058,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[434],"tags":[49,48,459,82],"class_list":{"0":"post-298057","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-nba","8":"tag-ca","9":"tag-canada","10":"tag-nba","11":"tag-sports"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/298057","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=298057"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/298057\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/298058"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=298057"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=298057"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=298057"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}