{"id":303470,"date":"2025-11-24T09:19:28","date_gmt":"2025-11-24T09:19:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/303470\/"},"modified":"2025-11-24T09:19:28","modified_gmt":"2025-11-24T09:19:28","slug":"should-you-use-current-fitness-or-goal-time","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/303470\/","title":{"rendered":"should you use current fitness or goal time?"},"content":{"rendered":"

When I started training for my first marathon, I had no idea what time goal to set. I was proud of my half marathon PB and felt like the trust I put into the Runner\u2019s World break 1:45 half marathon plan<\/a> really paid off when I ran a 1:43. But when it came time for me to conquer a distance I had never run before, I decided to follow a plan \u2013 the break 3:30 plan<\/a> \u2013 that was a bit unrealistic for me, just to see how close I could get. <\/p>\n

Throughout training, I learned a lot about my strengths and weaknesses as a runner, and developed a deeper sense of belief in myself.<\/p>\n

My one regret with following a faster time goal was failing to tailor my training paces to my current fitness. I was super happy with my race result, finishing in 3:51:46, but looking back, my workout paces were often inconsistent, and I finished each workout feeling a bit more fatigued and unmotivated. I probably could\u2019ve dodged a lot of unnecessary stress<\/a> and burnout toward the end of my training cycle had I set a more realistic goal. <\/p>\n

With all this in mind, I got curious about what happens when you train based on your current fitness versus your goal fitness, and how exactly to improve, especially if you have a far-off PB in mind. So I spoke with some experts to break it down, plus ways to monitor your progress, and how to set progress goals.<\/p>\n

Current fitness vs goal fitness: which should you focus on in training?<\/p>\n

First off, your goal pace<\/a> \u2013 even if it\u2019s realistic \u2013 represents a future level of fitness, not your current one, says Jason Karp<\/a>, PhD, USATF-certified run coach. When you train based on your future fitness goal rather than your current one, you\u2019re adding more stress to your training from the very beginning, which can lead to injury<\/a> or burnout, he says.<\/p>\n

Training with goal paces rather than the paces you\u2019re capable of meeting also means you won\u2019t be able to achieve as much training volume<\/a>, because you\u2019ll be consistently pushing pace, adds Karp.<\/p>\n

If you attempt to run your intervals at a pace that\u2019s faster than what you can handle at your current fitness level, you logically wouldn\u2019t be able to finish the workout, and consequently log fewer miles.<\/p>\n

‘If your current 5K pace is a 7:45 per mile pace, that pace is physiologically just below your VO2 max<\/a> (aerobic ceiling) and just above your lactate threshold, where physiology becomes unstable and you fatigue<\/a> sooner,’ says Laura Norris<\/a>, a Seattle-based certified personal trainer. If you then try to do a workout that calls for more than three miles at that pace, you likely won\u2019t be able to hold on.<\/p>\n

For example, my plan called for long runs<\/a> with tempo effort mixed in, aiming for a 7:25 pace for those faster miles, but my current fitness level looked more like a 7:40 to 7:50 tempo pace. I could manage the 7:25 pace for a few miles, but not an entire six miles (as prescribed in my plan), and I slowed to a 7:50 and 8:00. Failing to hold onto the 7:25 pace not only made the workout feel physically way harder than my typical tempos, but it ultimately left me feeling discouraged too, especially when my watch told me my miles were too slow.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s more: Pushing your pace too much can not only mean you log fewer miles, but also sacrifice endurance gains (a real downfall if you\u2019re eyeing a marathon<\/a> or half marathon<\/a>), says Norris. <\/p>\n

How to determine current fitness level as a distance runner<\/p>\n

Your current fitness isn\u2019t the finish time you want to run, it\u2019s how fast you can run right now, reflected in your race times and recent PBs, Norris says.<\/p>\n

There are many parameters that help you determine your current fitness level, says Norris, including VO2 max, threshold pace<\/a>, and running economy. But the easiest way to determine your fitness level is to focus on a race from the past six months. \u201cThe closer a race is to the goal distance, the more accurate the estimate. For example, a half marathon will give a better idea of how fast you can race a marathon compared to a 5k<\/a>,\u201d Norris notes.<\/p>\n

Plug that recent race time into a pace calculator\u2014like the VDOT running calculator<\/a> \u2013 to get an estimation of how fast you would run other distances, and your suggested training paces. <\/p>\n

It\u2019s worth noting that most calculators overestimate marathon equivalent performances because the original algorithms are based on sample sizes of more competitive runners who train at high volumes (like 70 miles per week or more), Norris adds, and most recreational runners train at lower volumes. Because of this, she suggests most runners add at least three minutes but up to seven minutes to predicted marathon times from a pace calculator.<\/p>\n

If you haven\u2019t run a recent race, you can also use time trials to estimate your current fitness level, like running a mile<\/a> or a 5k, and plug that time into a calculator instead, Norris adds.<\/p>\n

How to set a realistic fitness goal<\/p>\n

You can also use a calculator<\/a> to predict your race finish times. For example, if you ran a 24-minute 5K in the last six months and you want to run a marathon, your predicted marathon time would fall between 3:51 and 3:53, according to Norris. (For this, Norris added three and five minutes to the VDOT calculator\u2019s results with the assumption that over six months, you would see performance improvements.)<\/p>\n

‘If you haven\u2019t run a 3:53 yet, that\u2019s a reasonable goal. If you have, you could aim for a two to three percent improvement,’ which would be a 3:45 to 3:48, Norris says. A two to three percent improvement is about what you can expect from a 12- to 16-week training plan<\/a>, though this varies. For example, more experienced runners may train to shave just a few seconds off their time, while newer runners may PB by minutes. The most improvements in your fitness likely happen within the first two-thirds of a training block if you train based on your current fitness level, Norris adds.<\/p>\n

I used my half marathon time from a year before I started training for a marathon (a 1:43:47) which said my marathon equivalent would be a 3:35:30. I should\u2019ve used my more recent 10k<\/a> time of 51:45 (which I ran in the very beginning of training) because my more accurate marathon goal from that PR would\u2019ve been 3:57:21, much closer to my finish time of 3:51. <\/p>\n

How to tell if your fitness level has improved<\/p>\n

Once you set your current fitness level and training paces, you\u2019ll know it\u2019s time to level up by paying attention to these three signs, according to Karp:<\/p>\n

You feel completely in control of your workouts. This might look like consistently having to hold back from running too fast rather than feeling like you\u2019re struggling to meet your paces.Your heart rate<\/a> is consistently lower at a given speed. If your heart rate has progressively gotten lower, it could indicate an increase in fitness.You\u2019ve reached a PR in the race distance you\u2019ve been training for.<\/p>\n

You can also use a tune-up race<\/a> to assess your fitness within a training cycle, Norris suggests. For example, if you fit a 5k or 10k race into a marathon build, you can use that race time to see if it\u2019s time to push the pace. <\/p>\n

Another method to track your progression without needing to race: Track how you perform in a benchmark workout. \u201cBenchmark workouts are repeatable workouts that let you see progress over time,\u201d says Norris. While the exact workout depends on the race you\u2019re training for, think about 800-meter repeats, 1K repeats, or threshold runs. These are workouts you likely run periodically throughout a training cycle, typically repeating the same one every four to eight weeks. If you feel more in control of the workouts, the efforts become easier, or your heart rate seems lower, your fitness is likely improving.<\/p>\n

When you\u2019re ready to run faster, aim for a general pace increase of five to 10 seconds per mile in your workouts.<\/p>\n

You can also adjust to improved fitness by applying progressive overload, aka adding more challenges, Norris says. For example, you might add race pace miles to long runs, try higher mileage, or train on more hills<\/a>.<\/p>\n

When your fitness has improved and it\u2019s time to level up your training for the next race buildup, Norris also suggests changing up your training to address any limitations you came across in past cycles. This might look like adding more easy runs<\/a> to boost your endurance or strength training<\/a> more consistently to prevent injury and develop speed and power.<\/p>\n

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