{"id":306004,"date":"2025-11-25T13:42:10","date_gmt":"2025-11-25T13:42:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/306004\/"},"modified":"2025-11-25T13:42:10","modified_gmt":"2025-11-25T13:42:10","slug":"tuesdays-analyst-upgrades-and-downgrades-canadian-banks-in-focus-ahead-of-earnings-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/306004\/","title":{"rendered":"Tuesday\u2019s analyst upgrades and downgrades: Canadian banks in focus ahead of earnings season"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Inside the Market\u2019s roundup of some of today\u2019s key analyst actions<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">After an \u201cexceptionally strong run\u201d in the fall, Canadian banks are now trading \u201cat levels that could charitably be described as fully valued\u201d ahead of fourth-quarter earnings season in the sector, according to Jefferies analyst John Aiken. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cIn an outlook where top line growth will remain challenged, and credit pressures have yet to dissipate, we believe that the current downside risk is greater than their upside risk,\u201d he said in a client report released before the bell on Tuesday.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">In a section titled Discretion May Truly be the Better Part of Valour, Mr. Aiken said his outlook for the fourth quarter can \u201cbe best described as \u2018solid\u2019 in context of the current operating environment.\u201d <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cCredit should be stable (flat Stage 1&amp;2 and likely incremental increases in Stage 3) while lending volumes remain positive but largely uninspiring,\u201d he explained. \u201cTop line support should come from capital markets and wealth management (with NA and BMO having the greatest relative exposures in combination), but these are well understood. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cThat said, in an ongoing slow growth environment, after an exceptionally strong run through the fall, the Canadian banks trading at 13.0 times forward P\/E levels are fully valued. While we do see upside in the Canadian banks\u2019 earnings and valuations, our best guess is that this will become more apparent in the latter part of 2026 and that there is a greater downside risk with their current valuations than upside risk. Consequently, any miss on earnings in the fourth quarter could have significant negative consequences for valuation multiples, with near term upside likely constrained, even under a modest beat scenario. While we anticipate credit to be stable for the fourth quarter, any elevated credit losses over the medium term could present a buying opportunity.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Mr. Aiken\u2019s cautious view led him to downgrade his recommendation for a pair of banks: <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* Royal Bank of Canada (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/RY-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/RY-T\/\">RY-T<\/a>) to \u201chold\u201d from \u201cbuy\u201d with a $215 target, up from $213. The average target on the Street is $228.08, according to LSEG data.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cPost acquisition of HSBC Canada extends RY\u2019s dominance in Canadian retail and commercial banking. Further, with expense run-rate savings from its recent restructuring charges expected to hit the bottom line, we see a scenario where Royal will generate strong earnings growth and, on a relative basis, outperform the group,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* Toronto-Dominion Bank (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/TD-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/TD-T\/\">TD-T<\/a>) to \u201chold\u201d from \u201cbuy\u201d with a $125 target, rising from $124. The average is $114.59.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cWhile TD continues to recover from the resolution of its anti-money laundering issues, the bank retains a solid growth profile, based on the strength of its retail banking platforms on both sides of the border. Further, the ample excess capital offers optionality, as well as downside protection from a potential recession,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Mr. Aiken added: \u201cWhile we still believe in the investment theses for RY (well diversified and high quality) and TD (improving sentiment as it progresses through AML remediation), we believe that both their multiples full reflect their upside, and we are downgrading both to HOLD (in spite of increasing their targets heading into Q4),\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Separately, he called National Bank of Canada (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/NA-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/NA-T\/\">NA-T<\/a>) \u201ca name to watch\u201d during earnings season while trimming his target for its shares by $1 to $152 with a \u201chold\u201d rating (unchanged). The average on the Street is $164.44.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cAlong with its outsized relative exposures to capital markets and wealth, we believe that there will be some significant sentiment tailwinds for National in the quarter as management is expected to update the market on additional expected synergies (revenue) from the CWB integration as well as the capital relief to be expected from the migration of loan portfolios to NA\u2019s AIRB classification,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Mr. Aiken also made these target revisions: <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* Bank of Montreal (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/BMO-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/BMO-T\/\">BMO-T<\/a>, \u201chold\u201d) to $181 from $173. Average: $182.72. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Analyst: \u201cWhile BMO\u2019s acquisition of Bank of the West adds heft to its U.S. P&amp;C banking footprint and expands beyond its U.S. Midwest market, investors continue to look towards the opportunities for synergies.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/CM-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/CM-T\/\">CM-T<\/a>, \u201chold\u201d) to $118 from $106. Average: $116.17.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Analyst: \u201cWhile CIBC\u2019s strategic priorities, including emphasizing growth in key client segments with strong returns, maintaining discipline in resource allocation with a focus on returns over balance sheet growth, and leveraging its capabilities to drive simplification and efficiency could lead to earnings outperformance and relative multiple expansion, execution of the strategy remains key.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">=====<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Scotia Capital analyst Mike Rizvanovic sees a \u201cconstructive\u201d set-up for Canadian banks \u201cto end a banner year on a positive note.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cWe expect another solid quarter from the large Canadian banks to end a very strong year, helped by still-elevated Capital Markets, which should land close to record levels in F2025, stable-to-slightly-rising margins, expense growth moderation, and a healthy amount of share repurchases as the group continues to organically accrete excess capital, all of which could move forward expectations modestly higher post-quarter,\u201d he said. \u201cCredit will be topical once again in Q4, particularly given the recent noise around private credit and exposure to non-bank financials. However, based on key macroeconomic data and our recent discussions with the banks, we don\u2019t expect to see any meaningful impact on PCLs related to that exposure in Q4 and losses, in our view, should remain very manageable and in-line with the most recent guidance. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cWith respect to valuation, the large banks currently trade at 13.2 times on F2026 EPS consensus, but a more reasonable 11.9 times on F2027 expectations, which we believe leaves some upside potential post-quarter.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Mr. Rizvanovic is now projecting earnings per share to decline on average by 6 per cent from the third quarter but to increase 20 per cent year-over-year with estimates largely falling in line with his peers on the Street.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cWith respect to key earnings drivers we are forecasting (1) a roughly stable PCL ratio that is in line with recent guidance, supported by minimal changes in macroeconomic indicators; (2) NIMs to hold steady with a bit of potential upside on rate hedging; (3) modest loan growth; (4) an uptick in expenses but Y\/Y operating leverage to remain positive; and (5) more moderate earnings in Capital Markets, albeit with upside surprise potential,\u201d he said in a client report.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cPositioning Heading Into the Quarter:\u00a0Heading into Q4 earnings we are most optimistic on CM where we expect to see another clean quarter with strong execution. We also have a favorable view on NA, with potential catalysts on new disclosure for revenue synergies related to CWB, which we don\u2019t believe is currently captured in consensus estimates, and a more detailed plan on capital deployment. We are a bit cautious on BMO given the bank\u2019s elevated valuation multiple and recent run-up in its share price. Among the smaller banks, we are very cautious on EQB following our pre-quarter discussions with management, and we see downside potential for the stock despite its heavily discounted valuation.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">The analyst made a pair of target revisions on Tuesday:<\/p>\n<p>Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/CM-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/CM-T\/\">CM-T<\/a>, \u201csector outperform\u201d) to $123 from $121. The average on the Street is $116.17.National Bank of Canada (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/NA-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/NA-T\/\">NA-T<\/a>, \u201csector outperform\u201d) to $166 from $159. Average: $164.44.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">The rest of his coverage universe looks like this:<\/p>\n<p>Bank of Montreal (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/BMO-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/BMO-T\/\">BMO-T<\/a>) with a \u201csector perform\u201d rating and $179 target. Average: $182.72.EQB Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/EQB-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/EQB-T\/\">EQB-T<\/a>) with a \u201csector perform\u201d rating and $94 target. Average: $99.89.Laurentian Bank of Canada (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/LB-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/LB-T\/\">LB-T<\/a>) with a \u201csector perform\u201d rating and $33 target. Average: $28.50.Royal Bank of Canada (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/RY-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/RY-T\/\">RY-T<\/a>) with a \u201csector outperform\u201d rating and $218 target. Average: $228.08.Toronto-Dominion Bank (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/TD-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/TD-T\/\">TD-T<\/a>) with a \u201csector perform\u201d rating and $114 target. Average: $114.59.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">&#8220;As of 11\/21\/2025, the large Canadian banks traded at a market cap-weighted PE multiple of 13.2 times on F2026 consensus EPS estimates,&#8221; the analyst said. \u201cWhile that is above the group\u2019s historical 10-year average multiple of 11.1 times, the multiple on F2027 consensus, which we use to value the group, is far lower at 11.9 times, reflecting expectations for solid 8-per-cent EPS growth in that year. We continue to make the case that historical PE multiples are far less relevant today given a much more stable banking sector supported by a very strong capital cushion, and so we value the group using a PE multiple of 12.7 times. Heading into earnings season we believe the key driver for further share price appreciation will be quarterly performance, where we see potential for another round of EPS beats, with modest multiple expansion providing a bit more upside.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">=====<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Raymond James analyst Stephen Boland initiated coverage on Canada\u2019s six largest banks on Tuesday, taking a \u201crelatively neutral\u201d stance on the near-term potential.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cWhile long-term we remain positive, most of the Big 6 are trading near peak P\/E multiples, leaving the group sensitive to shifts in market sentiment \u2014 particularly around the credit outlook,\u201c he said in a report released Tuesday. \u201dAt the same time, the banks are well capitalized, maintain elevated reserves, and benefit from diversified income streams, which should help them weather any possible credit pressures. That said, we believe NIMs may peak in 2026, expect housing activity to remain subdued though gradually improving, and trading revenues to moderate following several years of elevated market activity. Consequently, near-term earnings growth appears more predicated on PCLs normalizing from recent levels \u2014 a path that remains uncertain, though nonetheless reflected in current valuations, in our view.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cWe recommend that Canadian investors maintain exposure within the sector, and we encourage U.S. investors to look North for opportunities. In our view, the Big 6 compare favourably with large U.S. banks and the broader U.S. banking industry. Collectively, they rank among the 20 largest banks in North America and hold more than 95 per cent of Canada\u2019s banking assets. All Canadian banks operate under federal regulation.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Mr. Boland set these ratings and targets:<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* Royal Bank of Canada (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/RY-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/RY-T\/\">RY-T<\/a>) with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating and $229 target. The average on the Street is $228.08.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cWe are positive on RBC for its leading ROE, unmatched scale, and strong management team,\u201d he said. \u201cWe also believe RBC\u2019s diversified business mix and lower lending exposure leaves it less vulnerable than peers to any deterioration in the credit cycle. In a sector where we find value to be somewhat scarce, RBC stands out as a bank which offers investors greater downside protection, notwithstanding its premium valuation (which we expect the bank to sustain). <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* Bank of Nova Scotia (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/BNS-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/BNS-T\/\">BNS-T<\/a>) with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating and $108 target. Average: $93.92.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cAfter several years of relative underperformance, Scotiabank\u2019s recent results are showing a number of encouraging developments,\u201d he said. \u201cUnder new management, the bank has scaled back exposure to underperforming markets, boosting profitability across its International operations and keeping performance ahead of the bank\u2019s 2023 Investor Day targets. Global Banking and Markets also continues to demonstrate strength, with a rising ROE and growth in the important U.S. market. With its valuation still lagging peers, we see potential for Scotiabank\u2019s multiple to expand as the ROE improves, while the stock also offers investors an attractive yield of 4.6 per cent.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* Toronto Dominion Bank (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/TD-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/TD-T\/\">TD-T<\/a>) with a \u201cmarket perform\u201d rating and $119 target. Average: $114.59.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cWhile still managing through the fallout of the asset cap introduced on its U.S. subsidiary following anti-money laundering breaches, TD has made steady progress in 2025 under new leadership,\u201d he said. \u201cThat said, we view the shares as less attractive following a 50-per-cent increase year-to-date. We note ongoing risks related to the bank\u2019s AML remediation process and caution surrounding the bank\u2019s ability to achieve their $2 billion+ cost savings target outlined at their recent Investor Day.\u201d <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* Bank of Montreal (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/BMO-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/BMO-T\/\">BMO-T<\/a>) with a \u201cmarket perform\u201d rating and $182 target. Average: $182.72.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cBMO\u2019s shares have rebounded following last year\u2019s credit challenges in its U.S. operations,\u201d he said. \u201cHowever, we believe the recent U.S. PCL improvement appears largely priced in, and the bank\u2019s ability to achieve a 15-per-cent-plus ROE target increasingly depends on sustained improvement in the U.S. ROE beyond PCL normalization, including factors such as deposit growth and synergies from Bank of the West. Ultimately, we prefer to wait for clearer signs of U.S. ROE progress before taking a more positive view on the stock.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/CM-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/CM-T\/\">CM-T<\/a>) with a \u201cmarket perform\u201d rating and $127 target. Average: $116.17.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cCIBC has performed strongly since overcoming credit issues in its U.S. office portfolio in 2023,\u201d he said. \u201cNIM expansion has been an important differentiator for CIBC, though we believe the bank\u2019s NIM could peak in 2026, and near-term earnings growth may be more closely linked to continued PCL improvement \u2014 an area where we have generally less conviction. That said, CIBC continues to execute strongly and a more attractive entry point could lead us to become more positive on the stock.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* National Bank of Canada (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/NA-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/NA-T\/\">NA-T<\/a>) with a \u201cmarket perform\u201d rating and $168 target. Average: $164.44.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cNational has delivered a peer-leading ROE for much of the past two decades and has been the top-performing Canadian bank stock over the last 25 years,\u201d he said. \u201cThe bank is now broadening its footprint beyond Quebec, with the recent acquisition of Canadian Western Bank representing a significant step in that strategy. However, rebuilding ROE toward its 15\u201320-per-cent medium-term target may prove more difficult as National expands into markets where its competitive advantages are less established. We are also cautious on the near-term outlook for its Cambodian subsidiary, ABA Bank, which is still working through a period of elevated impairments.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">=====<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">National Bank Financial analyst Mohamed Sidib\u00e9 came back from a recent visit to Fortuna Mining Corp.\u2019s (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/FVI-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/FVI-T\/\">FVI-T<\/a>) S\u00e9gu\u00e9la mine in C\u00f4te d\u2019Ivoire with an increasingly \u201cpositive\u201d view, pointing to \u201cmore visibility on the growth optionality from exciting exploration opportunities at the company\u2019s flagship S\u00e9gu\u00e9laasset.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">That led him to raise his rating for shares of the Vancouver-based company to \u201coutperform\u201d from \u201csector perform\u201d previously.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cWe now expect that the new baseline production of 160-180 koz [thousand ounces] in 2026 could be maintained at a minimum over the remainder of the mine life with the potential to increase this beyond 200 koz from 2028 at low capital intensity through the Sunbird underground project and the mill expansion to 2.0-2.5 mln tpa [million tons per annum] from 1.75 mln tpa,\u201d said Mr. Sidib\u00e9. When paired with additional growth from the Diamba Sud project which we model and where a construction decision is expected in mid-2026, we view Fortuna as delivering attractive growth, strong FCF and operational delivery with continuous exploration upside.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Following the visit, which followed its recent release of its updated mineral reserve and resource estimate and drill results from the Sunbird deposit, the analyst raised resource estimate and included $250-million of upside value for the underground and plant expansion projects, leading to an increase in his net asset value assumptions.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cFVI is in control of its targeted growth towards 500 koz AuEq with S\u00e9gu\u00e9la\u00a0targeted at 200 koz+.\u00a0We view this as achievable by the end of the decade. The exploration opportunities at S\u00e9gu\u00e9la are real and support this targeted growth:\u00a0Sunbird underground, Kingfisher open pit, underground optionality across other deposits could be unlocked and extension of current reserves and resources.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cMill expansion to 2.0-2.5 million tpa should further unlock production upside:\u00a0FVI already optimized its initial mill capacity from 1.25 million tpa to 1.75 million tpa.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Also emphasizing the growth is \u201cfunded from a strong balance sheet and strong expected FCF\u201d and anticipating \u201ca disciplined approach to growth,\u201d Mr. Sidib\u00e9 raised his target for Fortuna shares to $15 from $14.25. The average target on the Street is $13.37, according to LSEG data.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">=====<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Desjardins Securities analyst Benoit Poirier thinks Kraken Robotics Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/PNG-X\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/PNG-X\/\">PNG-X<\/a>) remains \u201csignificantly undervalued\u201d versUs its drone\/defence technology peers, such as Kratos Defense &amp; Security Solutions Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/KTOS-Q\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/KTOS-Q\/\">KTOS-Q<\/a>), Ondas Holdings Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/ONDS-Q\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/ONDS-Q\/\">ONDS-Q<\/a>), Redwire Corp. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/RDW-N\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/RDW-N\/\">RDW-N<\/a>) and Volatus Aerospace Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/FLT-X\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/FLT-X\/\">FLT-X<\/a>), \u201cdesPite superior profitability.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cOur confidence in Kraken\u2019s battery growth outlook has strengthened following the U.S. Navy\u2019s draft plan to cancel Boeing\u2019s Orca XLUUV in favour of other unmanned alternatives \u2014 a timely setup for Anduril, whose Rhode Island facility is set to begin production,&#8221; he added.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Shares of the St. John\u2019s-based company finished 0.6 per cent following the premarket release of its third-quarter results, which included revenue of $31.3-million, which is a gain of 60 per cent year-over-year and exceeds Mr. Poirier\u2019s $31.1-million estimate. Adjusted earnings per share of a penny matched the analyst\u2019s projection and was up 363 per cent from the same period in fiscal 2024.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cWe have slightly increased our assumptions for 2025 following the 3Q beat (vs our more conservative estimates) and a constructive discussion with management,\u201d said Mr. Poirier. \u201cWe are now more confident that the lower end of the $120\u2013135-million revenue guidance is achievable, with potential upside to the higher end if certain KATFISH contracts are closed before year-end. We now forecast $122-million in revenue and $29-million in EBITDA (up from C$118-million and C$27-million previously). <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cLooking to 2027, we have increased our product revenue estimate to account for the Australia Anduril program of record booked in the quarter (see our note; was not yet in our numbers) as the rampup is seemingly faster than even we had expected with the Ghost Shark factory already up and running in Sydney, and given Anduril is on course to deliver its first unit to the Navy this January. That said, we still forecast only $142-million of battery revenue in 2027, far below Kraken\u2019s max capacity of $200\u2013250-million, pointing to further upside with the current asset base if other programs are secured.\u201c<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">While expecting capex commitments to weigh on 2026 earnings, Mr. Poirier increased his 2027 revenue and earnings projections alongside gains to his current year forecast. That led him to bump his target for Kraken shares to $6.50 from $5, keeping a \u201cbuy\u201d rating. The current average is $6.25.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cWith the equity financing now closed, we forecast that Kraken will end the year with an enviable $119-million net cash position, opening the door to M&amp;A opportunities in 2026 as well as covering any capex related to additional battery capacity (if needed) or any one-time costs related to a potential index uplifting,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Elsewhere, Raymond James\u2019 Steven Li raised his Kraken target to $6.25 from $4, reaffirming an \u201coutperform\u201d rating.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cSmall 3Q miss on revenues. A lot of the revenue lumpiness this year can be attributed to the contract gaps\/delays on the sonar\/katfishes side. But momentum in this segment is building back up as a number of sizeable RFPs have been released (with potential award dates in 1H26). No change on the battery side except we highlight recent trade articles around U.S. Navy potentially shifting away from Boeing Orca in the Anduril vs Boeing in the battle for XL-UUV. Our model A-EBITDA is tweaked higher slightly given the recent positive gross margin performance. Target also moves higher,\u201d said Mr. Li.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">=====<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">RBC Dominion Securities analyst James McGarragle shook up his pecking order for the Canadian aerospace companies in his coverage universe on Tuesday following the conclusion of a \u201cmixed\u201d third-quarter earnings season, moving Bombardier Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/BBD-B-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/BBD-B-T\/\">BBD.B-T<\/a>) to the top spot to replace Air Canada (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/AC-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/AC-T\/\">AC-T<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">He said his move was due to Bombardier\u2019s strong demand and \u201ca meaningful expected ramp in Q4 margins,\u201d while noting its shares have rallied exiting the quarter. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cWe also continue to see long-term upside from defence spending,\u201d he added. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cAir Canada drops to #2 (from #1), reflecting near-term 2026 margin challenges due to aircraft delivery delays and cost inflation, though we continue to flag a compelling long-term opportunity for investors willing to look through the next 12-18 months,\u201d said Mr. McGarragle. \u201cExchange Income remains at #3, with 2026 guidance pointing to mid-teen EBITDA growth and potential valuation upside from underappreciated opportunities in Aerospace, Defense, and Manufacturing. Chorus held its #4 spot, supported by its shift toward higher-margin defense contracts, robust FCF (8-per-cent yield on 2026), and flexibility from aircraft divestitures. CAE stayed at #5, with shares appearing fully valued.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">The analyst\u2019s current ratings and targets are:<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">1. Bombardier Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/BBD-B-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/BBD-B-T\/\">BBD.B-T<\/a>) with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating and $230 target. The average target on the Street is $222.77.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Analyst: \u201cBBD\u2019s Q3 results came in below expectations, however management reaffirmed 2025 guidance. A key highlight was strong demand, reflected in a 1.3 times BTB, which should position the company well to achieve the higher end of its FCF guide of $500- $800-million. However, supply chain challenges continue to weigh on margins, and while management anticipates improvement by H2\/26, the timing remains uncertain. Overall, we continue to see a compelling opportunity in Bombardier shares with upside potential from increased government defense spending and potential for higher production targets.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">2. Air Canada (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/AC-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/AC-T\/\">AC-T<\/a>) with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating and $25 target. Average: $23.59.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Analyst: \u201cAC\u2019s Q3 results were in line with the company\u2019s pre-release and management tightened 2025 guidance in line with expectations. That said, focus from the quarter was on 2026 costs, which management flagged will come in ahead of prior street expectations resulting from aircraft delivery delays, updated labor agreements, and higher airport infrastructure costs. Despite near-term margin challenges, we continue to see a compelling longterm opportunity in AC shares for investors willing to look past what we see as transitory headwinds.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">3. Exchange Income Corp. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/EIF-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/EIF-T\/\">EIF-T<\/a>) with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating and $94 target. Average: $88.80.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Analyst: \u201cEIF reported a Q3 beat on the back of better than expected results in Aviation. The key takeaway from the quarter in our view though was 2026 guidance, which implies mid-teen EBITDA growth. We came away more positive post Q3 on the company\u2019s outlook reflecting its exposure to several secular tailwinds in both Aviation and Manufacturing. While we believe Aerospace tailwinds are well understood by investors, we do not believe Exchange gets credit for its significant exposure to Infrastructure and Housing investment, both of which were key items in the recent Canadian budget.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">4. Chorus Aviation Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/CHR-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/CHR-T\/\">CHR-T<\/a>) with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating and $31 target. Average: $29.50.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Analyst: \u201cQ3 results surpassed expectations with guidance remaining largely unchanged. We are encouraged by management\u2019s decision to expedite Voyageur\u2019s exit from lower-margin contracts, enabling a shift toward higher-value defense opportunities backed by increased Canadian defense spending. Additionally, the divestiture of nine aircraft should provide flexibility to fund growth initiatives, M&amp;A activity, or shareholder returns in 2026. With 8-per-cent FCF yield on our 2026 estimate, we see attractive valuation and point to potential upside from strategic investments and capital redeployment.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">5. CAE Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/CAE-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/CAE-T\/\">CAE-T<\/a>) with a \u201csector perform\u201d rating and $40 target. Average: $44.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Analyst: \u201cCAE reported an FQ2 beat but lowered Civil guidance, aligning with pilot hiring trends, and maintained Defense guidance despite strong H1 performance (H1 adjusted SOI up more than 40 per cent), implying negative adj. SOI growth in H2. While CAE benefits from favourable long-term secular trends, the negative implied H2 Defense guide suggests limited near-term upside. With shares yielding less than 3 per cent on our FY27E FCF, we continue to see CAE as fully valued.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">=====<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">In other analyst actions: <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* In response to Monday\u2019s announcement of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/business\/article-barrick-mali-loulo-gounkoto-mines\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/business\/article-barrick-mali-loulo-gounkoto-mines\/\">a resolution to its long-standing dispute with the government of Mali<\/a>, Raymond James\u2019 Brian MacArthur raised his target for shares of Barrick Mining Corp. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/B-N\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/B-N\/\">B-N<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/ABX-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/ABX-T\/\">ABX-T<\/a>) to US$42 from US$40 with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating. The average on the Street is US$43.21.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cBarrick has a controlling interest in numerous high-quality gold mines and copper assets that allows it to generate strong cash flow. The no-premium deal with Randgold provided more tier-one assets and free cash flow, but also increased Barrick\u2019s jurisdictional risk given Randgold\u2019s large African portfolio. The creation of the Nevada JV with Newmont consolidated management at the world\u2019s largest gold complex and provided the opportunity to create meaningful synergies,\u201d said Mr. MacArthur.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* In a research report titled Substantial Deleveraging Will Keep Momentum Going &#8211; Be Savvy and Buy Some Cavvy, Ventum Financial\u2019s Adam Gill initiated coverage of Calgary-based Cavvy Energy Ltd. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/CVVY-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/CVVY-T\/\">CVVY-T<\/a>) with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating and $1.50 target.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cThe Company is at the start of a massive improvement in funds flow and leverage, and while the stock has rallied aggressively ahead of next year, we still believe there is strong potential for the shares to drive higher,\u201d he said. \u201cThe key source of the improvements in funds flow comes from the significant increase in AECO prices in 2026, along with a substantial gain in sulphur revenues.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cThis increase in revenues will drive very strong FCF next year (forecast an FCF yield of 30.0 per cent), and with that, leverage is expected to fall to 0.6 times from 2.2 times in 2025. Given a 2026E EV\/DACF [enterprise value to debt-adjusted cash flow] valuation of 2.4 times versus peers at 5.3 times, we believe there is still substantial room for the shares to continue to rise and re-rate on the low valuation.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* CIBC initiated coverage of Toronto-based Highlander Silver Corp. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/HSLV-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/HSLV-T\/\">HSLV-T<\/a>) with an \u201coutperformer \u201d rating and $5.50 target. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* Following institutional investor meetings with Interfor Corp. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/IFP-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/IFP-T\/\">IFP-T<\/a>) CEO Ian Fillinger last week, Raymond James\u2019 Daryl Swetlishoff reduced his target for its shares to $12 from $15 with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating. The average is $14.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cWe continue to highlight IFP as an investment vehicle with high leverage to improved U.S. housing activity levels,\u201d he explained. \u201cCurrent run-rate production underscores that IFP offers the highest torque to lumber prices in our coverage universe, with each US$10\/mfbm annualized move driving an estimated $3-per-share change in theoretical equity value (40 per cent of the current share price). Layered on this, we conservatively peg Interfor\u2019s net asset value at $30 per share, implying more than 300-per-cent returns from current levels.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cBased on our meetings, cash burn and leverage remain key investor concerns; however, we highlight the company retains levers to mitigate cash losses and backstop financial liquidity.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* To \u201creflect the current look-through value of the proposed takeover bid from Anglo,\u201d Scotia\u2019s Orest Wowkodaw reduced his Teck Resources Ltd. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/TECK-B-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/TECK-B-T\/\">TECK.B-T<\/a>) target to $60 from $65 with a \u201csector perform\u201d rating. The average on the Street is $65.22.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cWith market sentiment at an apparent crossroads with respect to the burgeoning AI narrative, mining equities are being whipsawed in both directions in a seemingly daily battle between a bullish and bearish outlook, despite underlying commodity prices that are largely holding steady,\u201d said Mr. Wowkodaw and his mining equity colleagues in a note released Tuesday. \u201cFrom a fundamental perspective, we see no change in our relatively bullish near-term outlook for several commodities, most notably copper (Cu), as ongoing supply-side underperformance is likely to more than compensate for weak demand &#8230; We take stock of current equity valuations for the miners at both spot and our price deck.\u00a0We conclude that for the most part, equity valuations appear reasonably attractive, particularly for the mid-caps; we view the current market volatility as an attractive entry point into the sector.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cAfter reviewing risk-reward profiles and valuations, CCO, CS, and FCX are top picks. We also highly recommend CIA, ERO, HBM, IVN, LUN, and VALE. Among the developers, we prefer DML, FOM, IE, MOON, NXE, and OM.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Inside the Market\u2019s roundup of some of today\u2019s key analyst actions After an \u201cexceptionally strong run\u201d in the&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":306005,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[901,888,902,879,877,903,45,49,48,876,895,896,891,878,875,46,549,295,894,887,914,880,881,893,889,890,884,904,885,909,910,912,907,911,905,908,882,898,899,714,897,906,865,61,900,892,886,883,913],"class_list":["post-306004","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-business","tag-alberta","tag-arts-news","tag-bc","tag-breaking-news","tag-breaking-news-video","tag-british-columbia","tag-business","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-canada-news","tag-canada-sports","tag-canada-sports-news","tag-canada-trafficcanada-weather","tag-canadian-breaking-news","tag-canadian-news","tag-economy","tag-education","tag-environment","tag-federal-government","tag-foreign-news","tag-globe-and-mail","tag-globe-and-mail-breaking-news","tag-globe-and-mail-canada-news","tag-government","tag-life-news","tag-lifestyle","tag-local-news","tag-manitoba","tag-national-news","tag-new-brunswick","tag-newfoundland-and-labrador","tag-northwest-territories","tag-nova-scotia","tag-nunavut","tag-ontario","tag-pei","tag-photos","tag-political-news","tag-political-opinion","tag-politics","tag-politics-news","tag-quebec","tag-sports-news","tag-technology","tag-travel","tag-trudeau","tag-us-news","tag-world-news","tag-yukon"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/306004","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=306004"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/306004\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/306005"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=306004"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=306004"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=306004"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}